FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

TheMilkyPirate

Is it the top one is the 6z?

EDIT: I see it now. 6z looks better to me low further East? Not sure if I'm reading the chart correctly.

giveitholly

lucernarian wrote: »

Is it just me or do these pictures not load on mobile? I like your input Villain and it's a pity I can't see the posts you share.

I can't see them either on the moblie

Villain

First out is the ICON 12z and it delays the cold again with low out West much deeper and stalling, not a good start!

Gonzo

The soon to roll out GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM 12z will probably solve where were going from here.

This cold spell is a complete mess at this stage and too much is going wrong already. I'm expecting the ECM and GEM to revert to a similar scene to the GFS and Icon. Hope i'm proven wrong.

I'm expecting this cold spell to be shifted back to eastern Europe and then possibly down to Greece and Turkey as is the case most winters.

Villain

I'm thinking the GFS will move towards the ECM but it could get messy, interesting runs coming out, ARPEGE looks OK at the end.

Rebelbrowser

I believe the Aperge updated and is good for an easterly

odyboody

that's the storm that dumped 6 feet of snow in northern California and brought New York city to a standstill.??
Maybe it will slide on under down towards Spain and do the same for us.:D

TheMilkyPirate

Could be hanging myself here but the 12z looks better already. Low dropping south much faster

Gonzo

The GFS 12z is on it's way. Friday is now milder compared to the 6z. The low is a little further south compared to the 6z and winds in from the east over Scotland. This looks slightly better than the 6z.

Villain

UKMO +96

That will do!

Villain

UKMO 12z +120 steady

lucernarian

Villain wrote: »

UKMO +96

That will do!

What's the 850 temperatures like? That chart looks to be dragging some air from central Europe instead of Scandinavia. Not at a computer right now

Cork2021

Villain wrote: »

UKMO 12z +120 steady

Shizzzzzz

TheMilkyPirate

lucernarian wrote: »

What's the 850 temperatures like? That chart looks to be dragging some air from central Europe instead of Scandinavia. Not at a computer right now

850s won't update until after run completes.. not on Meteociel anyway

Gonzo

GFS 12z already an improvement on the past three runs.



However on closer inspection the uppers are not good with that easterly sourced from the south-east of Europe a bit like the brief easterly in early January.

ninebeanrows

Not a huge fan of the UKMO this evening.

GFS is going right direction but shaky in the nearer term

A shaky evening.

Hopefully more clarity later tomorrow.

Villain

UKMO 850 temps and also +144 chart

Rebelbrowser

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Not a huge fan of the UKMO this evening.

GFS is going right direction but shaky in the nearer term

A shaky evening.

Hopefully more clarity later tomorrow.

Yeah, UKMO at 144 isn't good, that Atlantic low has moved toward us and we are getting our uppers from it.

Edit - see Villians post with uppers now. Better than I thought. What would 168h look like?

Kermit.de.frog

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Not a huge fan of the UKMO this evening.

GFS is going right direction but shaky in the nearer term

A shaky evening.

Hopefully more clarity later tomorrow.

This is a giant snow maker for quite a few of us





Be more interesting if that low was sliding southeast.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is a giant snow maker for quiet a few of us

I don't think so Kermie,it's a returning Atlantic flow
Rain on Monday by that

TheMilkyPirate

If that low pressure that blows up over England could stay a little further south east like on the UKMO we would be in business. UKM uppers are better as a result. An ok set of 12Zs maybe tomorrow we will nail it down






Either way it's messy and the Atlantic looks like coming steaming in shortly after

Rebelbrowser

Beginning to remember that we only get decent easterlies about twice a decade (none I recall from 1992 to 2008) and there's a reason why......

Gonzo

at first glance I thought the GFS was a big improvement. The easterlies are back but they are the wrong easterlies, a long fetch over a relatively mild continent and sourced from the south-east, it completely misses out on the cold uppers that are bottled up over Scandinavia. The cold is getting into Scotland by Tuesday but has alot of work to get to us.

Captain Snow

I cant take much more of this, my blood pressure is going through the roof.....I need to move to the Faroe Islands....

Gonzo

GFS get's worse as it goes along, mild air up from the south, we ain't going to tap into that cold at all. Looks like the Atlantic is going to break through soon enough with that low from the USA getting much closer to us.

Snowbiee21

When you expect nothing, you won’t be disappointed:O

squarecircles

This thread would drive you to depression.

Villain

GFS is poor again, if the ECM moves towards it there will be some toys thrown around on Netweather. This is why I reminded people yesterday it was all still FI

Arduach

The nice 'clean' snappy easterlies that were to hit us on Sunday on all 12Zs yesterday have been replaced with messy, wet, cold. Perhaps snow on hills and the further north the better.

Whatever shows up on tomorrow's 12Zs will more than likely be the solution.

I think we've gone from a 2 out of 3 chance of a decent Easterly to a 1 out of 3 at present. Here's hoping there's time for upgrades.

The heights to our northwest aren't the best.

Gonzo

The early part of the GFS is a little bit better for us. It does have an easterly which might bring some snow to eastern areas on monday and early on Tuesday but I've a feeling those uppers aren't cold enough and with winds in off the Irish sea it could easily be cold rain rather than snow.



Not as bad as the 6z overall but far from great as well.