Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

Motivator

The markets for all the races has been turned on its head now, I can’t believe there hasn’t been a bigger reaction in the betting. I was full sure Envoi Allen would go evens or a shade of odds against yesterday. What’s happening is absolutely massive and the markets aren’t reflecting it. Someone mentioned that one of the bookies said it’ll be on the day when things could change but these are major changes we’re seeing.

There’s no way of knowing what way these horses are going to be affected but I know myself from a visit to Willie’s yard a few years ago that he has to have everything relaxed in the yard, horses are so highly strung and they pick up on everything. Imagine the chaos in Elliott’s yard the last few days? Those horses are now away from their normal stable, normal groom/work rider, in a completely different environment ahead of a huge two weeks of preparation and then they’ve to go travelling again to the UK.

I’ll be avoiding Elliott’s horses, leave them win but I couldn’t trust them now. Ruby said Willie takes his time with any horse that comes into the yard. French Asseel was only put through serious work last week or the week before and he was in the yard since the first week of January. Nichols got horses from Willie and he said it’s taken them an age to get comfortable and used to the new yard.

The Tetrarch

This may be off topic, and I could be reported, but it was antepost.

Reading The Clean Sweep by Arthur Webb, a book about the Irish Hospitals Sweepstakes ...

"This clerical enthusiasm (for gambling) is the source of a tale in the repertoire of almost every Irish priest - one of many about the unconventional Father Healy of Bray. Father Healy had often stretched the limits of permitted sporting enthusiasm; he reached a breaking-point when he proposed to ride his donkey in the local fete. His bishop dropped a hint that donkey-racing was undignified. Father Healy persisted. The long-tried bishop sent a peremptory demand that Father Healy should withdraw his mount from the unsuitable affair. Father Healy was reluctantly compelled to obey, but he had the last word. IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR INSTRUCTIONS, he telegraphed the bishop, I HAVE SCRATCHED MY ASS."

carq

Ok so wheres the value?

Supreme -oppose ballyadam
Appreciate it more value ?
Metier / blue lord /dreal deal?

Champ hurdle -w/o abra
Jason the millitant?
Aspire tower

National hunt-w/o galvin
Latest exhibition antepost?

Marsh - w/o envoi
Lots in betting who may not go here so maybe calue antepost if you know race plans


Pertempts - w/o bosses oscar
?

Paddy plate - w/o farclas and conflated
Plenty of options here

Triumph - w/o zanahiyr nd quilixious
French aseel?
Herros du seuil?

Slattsy

Motivator wrote: »

The markets for all the races has been turned on its head now, I can’t believe there hasn’t been a bigger reaction in the betting. I was full sure Envoi Allen would go evens or a shade of odds against yesterday. What’s happening is absolutely massive and the markets aren’t reflecting it. Someone mentioned that one of the bookies said it’ll be on the day when things could change but these are major changes we’re seeing.

There’s no way of knowing what way these horses are going to be affected but I know myself from a visit to Willie’s yard a few years ago that he has to have everything relaxed in the yard, horses are so highly strung and they pick up on everything. Imagine the chaos in Elliott’s yard the last few days? Those horses are now away from their normal stable, normal groom/work rider, in a completely different environment ahead of a huge two weeks of preparation and then they’ve to go travelling again to the UK.

I’ll be avoiding Elliott’s horses, leave them win but I couldn’t trust them now. Ruby said Willie takes his time with any horse that comes into the yard. French Asseel was only put through serious work last week or the week before and he was in the yard since the first week of January. Nichols got horses from Willie and he said it’s taken them an age to get comfortable and used to the new yard.

All the serious bits of work have been completed at this stage, which is the positive. Barry Geraghty said it last night on ATR, it absolutely wont bother many horses, but it could with some, particularly younger horses. Its very hard to know what to do betting wise.

If EA goes 6/4 (wishful thinking) i might have to have a go!!

famagusta

akelly02 wrote: »

as paul nicholls put it, its not ideal, definately not a plus.

feed, training regime etc will all be changed. some horses might transition well, some might not.

as paul says, some of the horses he got off willie took the best part of a year to settle in

Lads,

don't be getting too caught up on all this change of stables thing,

With the big trainers, especially mullins and elliott, a lot of the horses go into pretraining yards to get them 80% + fit,

I have seen only in the last few months a couple of horses at a yard that won a race for mullins a few weeks later, they are more adaptable than you think.

I'm not saying its not an issue but maybe not as big as you think is all!

Coneygree

famagusta wrote: »

Lads,

don't be getting too caught up on all this change of stables thing,

With the big trainers, especially mullins and elliott, a lot of the horses go into pretraining yards to get them 80% + fit,

I have seen only in the last few months a couple of horses at a yard that won a race for mullins a few weeks later, they are more adaptable than you think.

I'm not saying its not an issue but maybe not as big as you think is all!

Sssh we need people to start backing Shan Blue and Chantry House!

Slattsy

Coneygree wrote: »

Sssh we need people to start backing Shan Blue and Chantry House!

Shan Blue has been backed.

FatRat

Betting suggest Royale Pagaille is going to the NH Chase. Correct call imo.

And because I lose my bets if he doesn't.

abarkie

Cheltenham Weights announced

Shemale

FatRat wrote: »

Betting suggest Royale Pagaille is going to the NH Chase. Correct call imo.

And because I lose my bets if he doesn't.

I backed him in everything he was entered in NRNB, should win that very snugly.

Anniepowaaa

Shemale wrote: »

I backed him in everything he was entered in NRNB, should win that very snugly.

latest exibition is going too the same race and will muller him

famagusta

Anniepowaaa wrote: »

latest exibition is going too the same race and will muller him

Thought the latest was that he wasn't on the boat at all, waiting for fairyhouse?

Anniepowaaa

famagusta wrote: »

Thought the latest was that he wasn't on the boat at all, waiting for fairyhouse?

has mentioned the irish national a while back but only heard him talking about the rsa which is a non goer with monkfish around and the nh chase lately

Slattsy

abarkie wrote: »

Cheltenham Weights announced

Good stuff

famagusta

abarkie wrote: »

Cheltenham Weights announced

Thanks!! What are the upper rating limits for the handicaps?

dicky dunne

Slattsy wrote: »

Glens of Antrim a very interesting one on his run behind The Stattler. That's good form, and she didn't jump that day at all.

similarly behind Mr Incredible as well who pulled well clear of the rest when runner up to Galliard Du Mesnil at Leopardstown

I've backed her today at 14s for the mares novice

dicky dunne

dicky dunne wrote: »

three that i like that i've backed NRNB today.

Longhouse Poet for the National Hunt Chase @ 25s, the form of his last win couldnt have worked out better with both Run for Fred (fav for Kim Muir) being 2nd in the Thyestes and The Big Dog winning next time out, rated 143 after his last race there may be adjustment to his current mark with both horses running well subsequently, the horse has grade 1 form over hurdles and both Codd and DOC have ridden him in the past so you'd be hopefully one might get the leg up again.

Rivere D'Etel for the Boodles @ 16s initially thought this was a grade 1 horse and heard good things from the Elliotts yard prior to her last run, she finished 3rd that day to Thedevilscoachman who has won subsequently and looks a possible player in the Supreme, Riviere was keen all throughout the race and found very little for pressure, she's been given an Irish mark 133 so looks very exploitable even if she gets an extra 4/5 lbs from the UK counterpart

Eskylane for the Martin Pipe @ 20s this horse is so well handicapped it might not even get in to a race unfortunately, classy performer in Bumpers last year when finishing 4th in the Champion, the horse bet Gabynako first out of hurdles, it's been well tried since but not to much avail, have to believe it is capable of running beyond its current mark of 133

All may not turn up or go for other engagements so i'd go with the NRNB firms if following in

Hard to know where this stands now with 2 Elliott selections but both Riviere D'Etel (same Irish mark) and Eskylane (+2lbs) have both been given a real chance by the UK handicapper

Longhouse Poet 25s now generally 11s
Riviere D'Etel 16s now generally 8s
Eskylane 20s now generally 14s

Slattsy

dicky dunne wrote: »

similarly behind Mr Incredible as well who pulled well clear of the rest when runner up to Galliard Du Mesnil at Leopardstown

I've backed her today at 14s for the mares novice

If i wasnt all over Hook Up I'd be all over Glens of Antrim :pac:

And i am worried I'm on the wrongun.

dicky dunne

Slattsy wrote: »

If i wasnt all over Hook Up I'd be all over Glens of Antrim :pac:

And i am worried I'm on the wrongun.

At the price it's no harm having a second dart in the race

realdanbreen

Motivator wrote: »

The markets for all the races has been turned on its head now, I can’t believe there hasn’t been a bigger reaction in the betting. I was full sure Envoi Allen would go evens or a shade of odds against yesterday. What’s happening is absolutely massive and the markets aren’t reflecting it. Someone mentioned that one of the bookies said it’ll be on the day when things could change but these are major changes we’re seeing.

There’s no way of knowing what way these horses are going to be affected but I know myself from a visit to Willie’s yard a few years ago that he has to have everything relaxed in the yard, horses are so highly strung and they pick up on everything. Imagine the chaos in Elliott’s yard the last few days? Those horses are now away from their normal stable, normal groom/work rider, in a completely different environment ahead of a huge two weeks of preparation and then they’ve to go travelling again to the UK.

I’ll be avoiding Elliott’s horses, leave them win but I couldn’t trust them now. Ruby said Willie takes his time with any horse that comes into the yard. French Asseel was only put through serious work last week or the week before and he was in the yard since the first week of January. Nichols got horses from Willie and he said it’s taken them an age to get comfortable and used to the new yard.

I know that a few at least of Gordon elliot's lads are going with the horses to Cheltenham.

Labaik

Dreal Deal a doubtful runner now

Anniepowaaa

you would really wonder about some of these people on preview panels the amount of times I have heard people say they are against appreciate it due to the distance even though everyone that knows anything about the supreme knows you need a stayer due to the gallop they go

FatRat

It's very fashionable to be against a Supreme favourite like Appreciate It (remember the drift on shishkin the day before last year!)

But there isn't really a solid argument to be made for why he won't win, all I'm hearing is gut feeling. It's annoying too because I want to find the winner outside of the fav but I can't.

Motivator

Anniepowaaa wrote: »

you would really wonder about some of these people on preview panels the amount of times I have heard people say they are against appreciate it due to the distance even though everyone that knows anything about the supreme knows you need a stayer due to the gallop they go

I’d rather hear that then the comical shout of “he just wins”. I cringe every time I hear it.

Slattsy

FatRat wrote: »

It's very fashionable to be against a Supreme favourite like Appreciate It (remember the drift on shishkin the day before last year!)

But there isn't really a solid argument to be made for why he won't win, all I'm hearing is gut feeling. It's annoying too because I want to find the winner outside of the fav but I can't.

Good ground the only concern. If it was soft he'd be a lump job. Believe it or not i cashed out my 20/1 Ballyadam slip months ago. I have AI in some multiples, other than that i'm leaving the race alone.

Coneygree

Anniepowaaa wrote: »

you would really wonder about some of these people on preview panels the amount of times I have heard people say they are against appreciate it due to the distance even though everyone that knows anything about the supreme knows you need a stayer due to the gallop they go

Haven't heard anyone go against him because of the distance, rather the only slight on him is the ground and perhaps that he doesn't get up the hill quick enough. Ground is definitely viable but I think he gets up the hill alright.

Labaik

Anybody listen to the lets talk racing podcast on Youtube. Good to see Father Austin Purcell doing a bit after his gig in Fr Ted

The Rooster

Maybe this is well known but Sky Sports Racing said this morning that Jack Kennedy will ride Minella Indo in the Gold Cup for Henry DeB (Rachael on A Plus Tard).

Slattsy

The Rooster wrote: »

Maybe this is well known but Sky Sports Racing said this morning that Jack Kennedy will ride Minella Indo in the Gold Cup for Henry DeB (Rachael on A Plus Tard).

At the prices I'd be backing MI.

zpehtsfd

Patrick Mullins not turning pro for Cheltenham.

So Townend on Sharjah and Appreciate it. Wonder who gets the ride on Melon.