Cheltenham 2021 Antepost

Plasandrunt

Gavin shels wrote: »

https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/county-hurdle/winner

365, SkyBet, PP, WH, Betfair & Unibet

Yep was only priced up with WH last night and I don't have an account with them. Took 25/1 with Skybet today.

Labaik

Felix Dejsy county hurdle bound also.

Plasandrunt

Looking at my book so far.

Supreme
Appreciate it @5/2

Arkle
Shiskin @2/1
Darver Star @14/1

Champion Hurdle
Abacadbras @6/1

National Hunt Chase
Galvin @20/1

RSA
Next Destination @ 9/1

Champion Chase
Put the Kettle on w/o Chacun@ 9/1

Marsh
Envoi Allen (rollup) @24/1

Ryanair
Allaho @ 10/1
Reel Steel @ 16/1

Stayers
Thyme Hill @12/1

Mares Novice
Hook up @16/1

Triumph
Duffle Coat @14/1
Paros @20/1

County Hurdle
Petit Mouchoir @25/1

Gold Cup
Santini @14/1

Mares Chase
Shattered Love @14/1
Ellfie @ 12/1

Some decent looking multis added to about 30 point worth of dead bets such as Ferny Hollow (Supreme), Easywork (RSA) and Pic D'orhy (Arkle)- what was I thinking.

Mixed bag really.

longshotvalue

Labaik wrote: »

Felix Dejsy county hurdle bound also.

He is very interesting in it. Petit M will almost certainly place , but Felix could win on a good day decent mark will be important

Labaik

aidankkk wrote: »

He is very interesting in it. Petit M will almost certainly place , but Felix could win on a good day decent mark will be important

151 hurdle rating iirc. Grade 1 winner.

RivetingRoger

Will Felix carry top weight?

Plasandrunt

Felix Deisjy is rated 151 over hurdles, Petit Mouchoir currently 157. I'd expect PM to be dropped maybe a lb or two but i think he'll be top weight if he runs

famagusta

Confirmed that amateur riders not allowed ride at Cheltenham.
Rumour has it paddy mullins will be turning pro, he definitely should, he'll have a few nice rides

zpehtsfd

Please don't.

Doctors room ghost

There’s a good horse racing programme on Thursday night half 9 on tg4.
Set to record let ye

piplip87

Was looking to see didtheyleaveyououto was entered in handicap. noticed he is entered on the AW tonight. He won an AW bumper by 20 lengths or so a couple of years ago.

abarkie

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Anyone have the handicap entries list?

These?

piplip87

What's the craic with Willie's new French import into 25s from 50s for the CH. be very interesting to see who takes the ride I'd presume it will be Townend if Partick turns pro. Saldier for the county ?

Anniepowaaa

piplip87 wrote: »

What's the craic with Willie's new French import into 25s from 50s for the CH. be very interesting to see who takes the ride I'd presume it will be Townend if Partick turns pro. Saldier for the county ?

3rd highest rated hurdler in france last year and now with a genius

FatRat

What are thoughts on Royale Pagaille going to the NH chase?

I want to back him at 11/2 antepost but onvious risk he doesn't go. I would've thought they'd go there instead of the RSA and Gold Cup?

Slattsy

FatRat wrote: »

What are thoughts on Royale Pagaille going to the NH chase?

I want to back him at 11/2 antepost but onvious risk he doesn't go. I would've thought they'd go there instead of the RSA and Gold Cup?

Well he wont go RSA that for sure as they've Monkfish.

Can see him going NH Chase myself.

akelly02

Slattsy wrote: »

Well he wont go RSA that for sure as they've Monkfish.

Can see him going NH Chase myself.

was he in the entries?

Slattsy

akelly02 wrote: »

was he in the entries?

Not out yet I don't think.

akelly02

Slattsy wrote: »

Not out yet I don't think.

i want to see him in the big one

adds some spice

Anniepowaaa

FatRat wrote: »

What are thoughts on Royale Pagaille going to the NH chase?

I want to back him at 11/2 antepost but onvious risk he doesn't go. I would've thought they'd go there instead of the RSA and Gold Cup?

nh chase has no hope in the gold cup

posturingpat

I'd be surprised if he doesn't go Gold cup. Wouldn't fancy him but Ricci will definitely be leaning to it.

Dr. Bre

Ricci is desperate for a gold cup winner so he will go for gold

del roy

Venetia Williams

Royale Pagaille
National Hunt Chase, Brown Advisory Novices' Chase, WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup
He came out of Haydock very well and retains three entries. I need to talk to connections and a target will be decided in the near future.

maximo31

Kemboy heading to the Gold Cup now according to Willie. :
https://twitter.com/sportinglife/status/1364988704079675404?s=21

Shemale

Hulk Hands wrote: »

How is it pointless?

For me it is, just because the manner of Goshens win.

Just watching the race he effortless just cruised away from them, I don't need a clock to know he is a monster

If Epitante is back to her best I think she beats Honeysuckle, if Goshen is on song he gives both of them the slip.

Hulk Hands

Shemale wrote: »

For me it is, just because the manner of Goshens win.

Just watching the race he effortless just cruised away from them, I don't need a clock to know he is a monster

If Epitante is back to her best I think she beats Honeysuckle, if Goshen is on song he gives both of them the slip.

Numerous respected judges including Andy Holding, Andy Gibson, Gavan Lynch, Kevin Blake and (divides opinion) Simon Rowlands have all now referenced the time at the weekend in an indifferent or negative manner. The finishing speed of all horses was sub 100% of race average which strongly suggests Navajo Pass and the field went off too fast, as does the 7 seconds quicker for the first mile and subsequent slow finish compared to the novice race. The race ran immediately after, which was supposed to be a competitive handicap, finished in the same manner with exaggerated winning distances and 6 of 11 not finishing at all.

Incidentally, Goshen's triumph hurdle time wasn't fantastic either. By all reasonable metrics he'd have finished slightly behind Saint Roi's (carried 2lb less) county hurdle time, or slightly ahead of Aramon (carried 6lb more) for a better comparison with last year's open company animals.

It's hard to quantify how good wide margin heavy ground victories actually are, which is why people lean on times in cases like this with unknowns over how good the bare form is. Theres plenty of examples of excellent times in strung out heavy ground wins that were great indicators going forward. Faugheen and Sprinter Sacre are two easy examples of horses who ran insanely fast as novices and gained a mini fan club early on in doing so. Goshen may well be a monster but its not been proven on the clock whatsoever as yet

Shemale

I don't dispute times are useful but the two races for Goshen he had the two races well and truly put to bed, there is no need for Moore to ask for everything and give him a harder race when he wasn't going to be caught.

In terms of the Triumph race I thought he looked mightily impressive, he was roughly from the tape to the last hurdle in 3m 47s on soft ground, ignoring other races that day, it seems quick to me.

I don't really look at times, every now and again a horse looks like it is not doing much but the horses around it are struggling, the true sign of class.

It is worth nothing that Navajo Pass beat two time Champion Hurdler Beauvair D'air (I know first run back) this season.

abarkie

For me heavy ground wins are the most misleading results for the form book

I learn a hard lesson with Carvills Hill - obviously other aspects involved

There are plenty of examples over the years who excelled on heavy ground but don't repeat the performance on good to soft

Morgans

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Numerous respected judges including Andy Holding, Andy Gibson, Gavan Lynch, Kevin Blake and (divides opinion) Simon Rowlands have all now referenced the time at the weekend in an indifferent or negative manner. The finishing speed of all horses was sub 100% of race average which strongly suggests Navajo Pass and the field went off too fast, as does the 7 seconds quicker for the first mile and subsequent slow finish compared to the novice race. The race ran immediately after, which was supposed to be a competitive handicap, finished in the same manner with exaggerated winning distances and 6 of 11 not finishing at all.

Incidentally, Goshen's triumph hurdle time wasn't fantastic either. By all reasonable metrics he'd have finished slightly behind Saint Roi's (carried 2lb less) county hurdle time, or slightly ahead of Aramon (carried 6lb more) for a better comparison with last year's open company animals.

It's hard to quantify how good wide margin heavy ground victories actually are, which is why people lean on times in cases like this with unknowns over how good the bare form is. Theres plenty of examples of excellent times in strung out heavy ground wins that were great indicators going forward. Faugheen and Sprinter Sacre are two easy examples of horses who ran insanely fast as novices and gained a mini fan club early on in doing so. Goshen may well be a monster but its not been proven on the clock whatsoever as yet

Time analysis gives the impression of intelligence but is only one, and in my view, very flimsy aspect of form study. Usually it is used to decry form and gives people whatever they want to hear.

There was no one claiming that the novices should be in the supreme despite their performances in the clock being on a par with song for someone.

It does make people sound intelligent, but are essentially straw man arguements.

Morgans

abarkie wrote: »

For me heavy ground wins are the most misleading results for the form book

I learn a hard lesson with Carvills Hill - obviously other aspects involved

There are plenty of examples over the years who excelled on heavy ground but don't repeat the performance on good to soft

Carvills hill tearing his stomach muscles at the first in the gold cup and coming home so injured that he never raced again might have had something to do with his poor performance in that gold cup.