Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

bb1234567

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I can only conclude that it is a way of disguising the death toll.

In what sense? In the UK with this methodology there are absolutely covid deaths being discounted but also non covid deaths being included simultaneously

It won't have a major impact, somebody is unlikely to take 28 days to die after testing positive and the average person who tests positive but recovers is extremely unlikely to die within the next 28 days of another cause of death but it just adds needless confusion and misunderstanding

igCorcaigh

Widdensushi wrote: »

How much is the death toll above average in Ireland this year?

Excess deaths? I don't know.

One thing we have witnessed though is decreased excess deaths after the first wave, as a lot of the elderly died earlier, because of covid.

igCorcaigh

bb1234567 wrote: »

In what sense? In the UK with this methodology there are absolutely covid deaths being discounted but also non covid deaths being included simultaneously

Yeah, i replied about the latter in my previous post. In my opinion it would seem that the underestimation by this counting method is far greater than the overestimation by what you describe.

Risteard81

440Hertz wrote: »

That's not correct

If you fly into Dublin and intend to go to Northern Ireland you are required to fill in portion of the locator form, which is sent to Northern Ireland. (sic)

You have to fill it in, but it's not enforceable nor is there any law permitting them to check up on you. Quarantine does not apply in any legally-enforceable sense.

amadangomor

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Thanks. Im still unsure if it's anything at all, but will stay at home and contact my GP if i feel worse. The GP is really under pressure. Took me a few attempts to contact the surgery last week (by phone, for a script) .

The tight chest would have me wondering so would definitely contact your GP in the morning.

Don't worry about them being under pressure, will only take a few minutes for them to book you in for a test if they think it's appropriate.

bb1234567

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Yeah, i replied about the latter in my previous post. In my opinion it would seem that the underestimation by this counting method is far greater than the overestimation by what you describe.

Perhaps, the number of people in the UK who have had COVID listed as a contributing cause of death on their death certificate is just under 60,000

Almost 15,000 higher than the official death toll which only includes those who died less than 28 days after testing positive

What a system..of course maybe some of those 15,000 simply had covid and died of something else, it's not outside the realms of reason given the age of many covid deaths, but either way it's a very unclear method of counting deaths and there is a huge room for error. The fact that UK's excess deaths are around 60,000, the same as the total number of people who died after contracting covid, does further imply that many covid deaths are being missed in the UK.

440Hertz

Risteard81 wrote: »

You have to fill it in, but it's not enforceable nor is there any law permitting them to check up on you. Quarantine does not apply in any legally-enforceable sense.

Yes it is:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54009845

Just as an example.

igCorcaigh

amadangomor wrote: »

The tight chest would have me wondering so would definitely contact your GP in the morning.

Don't worry about them being under pressure, will only take a few minutes for them to book you in for a test if they think it's appropriate.

Thanks. I'll see how i feel tomorrow. I would feel stupid for overreacting and taking up resources.
Im going to stay at home. Ive only been out for shopping anyway.

Necro

Risteard81 wrote:

You have to fill it in, but it's not enforceable nor is there any law permitting them to check up on you. Quarantine does not apply in any legally-enforceable sense.

Once again you're wrong but don't let the truth get in the way of a good story huh

amadangomor

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Thanks. I'll see how i feel tomorrow. I would feel stupid for overreacting and taking up resources.
Im going to stay at home. Ive only been out for shopping anyway.

I was feeling the same when I had a cough a few weeks back but did the right thing and self isolated and rang doctor.

Was 99% sure it was a cold causing the cough but was enough for the Doctor to put me forward.

Testing is not just to find positive cases it is used to eliminate the possibility that the person has Covid and get them back out of isolation ASAP.

Irish Steve

owlbethere wrote: »

I reckon the doom and gloom merchants are fairly disappointed about the numbers coming down. They want to live in lockdown forever. The government should have sat tight at the level 3 or at least tried the level 4 for a week or 2.

And just maybe, it's nothing to do with the doom and gloom merchants, and everything to do with the unfortunate fact that NPHET etc had advance warning of the case numbers going through the roof in Meath and Cavan as a result of some of the stupidity that went on in those 2 counties, and complete closedown was the only way to stop it becoming a complete disaster. As it is, the numbers in Meath went over 1000 per 100K last week, that's way beyong unsustainable for all sorts of reasons.

Cavan is still treble the national average, Meath is still double the national average, they are starting to go down at last, but it's going to take time.

coastwatch

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Friend of mine tested positive a week and a half ago. Contacts have been tested twice now - 2 of them including her cousin have been with her every single day before and since her test.
All of them tested negative, twice.
I'm very confused.

It seems that outcome is more common than we might think, and supports the theory of "super spreaders" , where it's believed as little as 20% of cases are responsible for 80% of transmissions.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

CoronaBlocker

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

341 now in hospital that is highest since 20th of May

38 now in ICU

What were the case numbers at that time and how do they equate to today?

Necro

coastwatch wrote:

It seems that outcome is more common than we might think, and supports the theory of "super spreaders" , where it's believed as little as 20% of cases are responsible for 80% of transmissions.

Same happened me, tested positive three weeks ago, wife and kids subsequently tested twice and all three were negative twice.

Eod100

Telegraph have story on potential immunity given by any vaccine. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1320855385385873408?s=19

GT89

Strumms wrote: »

I’m sure doctors, nurses, virologists, and the vast array of other medical and hospital staff would agree with you wholeheartedly, not. :rolleyes:

That's like saying Gardai should have a say in how laws are made

Stheno

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Thanks. I'll see how i feel tomorrow. I would feel stupid for overreacting and taking up resources.
Im going to stay at home. Ive only been out for shopping anyway.

You're not overreacting.

I rang the out of hours doc weeks ago to get advice as my oh suddenly came down with a hacking constant cough and apologised and they said it was absolutely the right thing to do

He tested negative or no virus detected as the text said

Eod100

Eod100 wrote: »

Telegraph have story on potential immunity given by any vaccine. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1320855385385873408?s=19

Remember something about this during the summer, and that more than one dose might be required.

Yep a quote from Fauchi
https://fortune.com/2020/07/07/coronavirus-vaccine-finite-anthony-fauci-update/

bb1234567

Eod100 wrote: »

Telegraph have story on potential immunity given by any vaccine. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1320855385385873408?s=19

I think that the huge cases in places like Madrid pointed to this being the case..Madrid had huge excess deaths, 0.3% of the city's population, surely a large proportion of the city was infected last Spring if we are to believe the IFR is in the range of 0.5-0.6%..must be many people becoming reinfected to see such massive growth of cases again since September onward

Non solum non ambulabit

Eod100 wrote: »

Telegraph have story on potential immunity given by any vaccine. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1320855385385873408?s=19

Did it mention T-cell immunity in the article? That's our primary defense.

igCorcaigh

Stheno wrote: »

You're not overreacting.

I rang the out of hours doc weeks ago to get advice as my oh suddenly came down with a hacking constant cough and apologised and they said it was absolutely the right thing to do

He tested negative or no virus detected as the tomorrow. text said

I usually might need my inhaler during the hay-fever season. But today it came up. I don't know.

I'll see how i feel tomorrow.

hmmm

Eod100 wrote: »

Telegraph have story on potential immunity given by any vaccine.

Scare-mongering, it would have to be the Telegraph.

We have no idea how long natural immunity lasts, or vaccine immunity, and the majority of experts in this area say that they expect reinfections (if they happen) will be milder for people with normal immune systems.

We know that patients with SARS1 have memory t-cells of the virus 17 years later.

Jinglejangle69

caveat emptor wrote: »

That Irish study with spread on a plane has gone international. Added to the corpus of evidence of infection on planes at this stage. Again this is not the main issue. It's when people get off the plane. Never the less our own public health professionals and the National Virus Reference Laboratory lab should be commended for going where no politician would dare. Hopefully they don't face any consequences for not toeing the party line. It may not be China but people have been disappeared professionally here when big business have been reported on in the past.

@WhistleIRL springs to mind.


https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1320822529821495297?s=20

But travel only accounts for 2%.

It was the schools were told.

bb1234567

Israel's robust testing system likely gives the best indicator of COVID IFR so far

Israel tested 50% of it's population of 9 million and 3.5% of the population tested positive.

2453 deaths/310,851 infections

IFR of 0.78%


Bahrain also tested almost 100% of it's population of 1. 7 million

316 deaths/80,500 infections

IFR 0.4%

Bahrain Media age 32 years
Israel median age 30 years

Israeli hospitals were overwhelmed though.

Bahrain is a monarch with strong widespread media/political censorship and limited freedom for citizen's so take it as you will but it's interesting at least
So I think we can say with confidence now the IFR is about 0.4/0.5 when hospitals are coping and 0.8%+ when hospitals are overwhelmed. Many antibody studies have indicated figures in this range but the test results in these countries further reinforce

Unfortunately for us in European Union with median age in the mid fourties it means IFr is certainly above 1% if COVID spreading uncontrolled with older people not isolating and would be 2 million + deaths.

Andorra is a pretty tiny sample with 72 deaths/4325 cases giving an IFR of 1.75%..but they have tested their entire population two times over so it may give an indication of the IFR in an old European country. Andorra has a median age of 45 years, similar to Itaaly and Spain...a lot older than Ireland

quokula

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

But travel only accounts for 2%.

It was the schools were told.

59 cases is about 2% of 3 days worth of infections. So hard to draw any conclusion one way or another from that one example.

Nobotty

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1320797836699701249?s=19

froog

bb1234567 wrote: »

Israel's robust testing system likely gives the best indicator of COVID IFR so far

Israel tested 50% of it's population of 9 million and 3.5% of the population tested positive.

2453 deaths/310,851 infections

IFR of 0.78%


Bahrain also tested almost 100% of it's population of 1. 7 million

316 deaths/80,500 infections

IFR 0.4%

Bahrain Media age 32 years
Israel median age 30 years

Israeli hospitals were overwhelmed though.
So I think we can say with confidence now the IFR is about 0.4/0.5 when hospitals are coping and 0.8%+ when hospitals are overwhelmed. Many antibody studies have indicated figures in this range but the test results in these countries further reinforce

Unfortunately for us in European Union with median age in the mid fourties it means IFr is certainly above 1% if COVID spreading uncontrolled with older people not isolating and would be 2 million + deaths

good data there. people will use those IFR figures to play down the virus unfortunately. it's still 4-8 times deadlier than the flu, at least twice as infectious (and probably more than that) and we have no widespread immunity or vaccine. it's a very serious virus.

Leftwaffe

hmmm wrote: »

Scare-mongering, it would have to be the Telegraph.

We have no idea how long natural immunity lasts, or vaccine immunity, and the majority of experts in this area say that they expect reinfections (if they happen) will be milder for people with normal immune systems.

We know that patients with SARS1 have memory t-cells of the virus 17 years later.

The headline is misleading. The study didn't examine the role of t cells which are apparently just as important in fighting covid. It also says that vaccines might give a stronger immune response than natural immunity.

Really is scare mongering.

SeaBreezes

hmmm wrote: »

Scare-mongering, it would have to be the Telegraph.

We have no idea how long natural immunity lasts, or vaccine immunity, and the majority of experts in this area say that they expect reinfections (if they happen) will be milder for people with normal immune systems.

We know that patients with SARS1 have memory t-cells of the virus 17 years later.

Its a completely different virus. Both in how it 'hides' from Tcells and ages them 5-10 years.

Definately a worry.

SeaBreezes

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1320797836699701249?s=20