Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

JimToken

Antares35 wrote: »

Nothing left in Smyths apparently. People are so predictable.

One across the road from the dail

Always sold out of crayons

lawred2

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

Sure RTE is no better. Had Drivetime on there yesterday and had to check to see if I was actually on Newstalk. Clare Byrne has more snark in her than David McCullagh.

She's one of the better one really but I think she tries a bit too hard sometimes to be hard hitting...

Blondini

Hospital numbers creeping up.

315 in hospital
34 in ICU

political analyst

seamus wrote: »

Statistics, probablity and modelling.

You already know the answer to this question, so I'm not sure where you're going with this.

But probability and modelling might be wrong because NPHET cannot be certain of how many cases there will be from one day to the next. If NPHET is wrong then the damage to the economy will be for nothing and then there'll be severe cutbacks to the health service, thus causing many more deaths than Covid ever could.

TonyMaloney

Scotland - 15 deaths, 1456 new cases

500 in Glasgow and Clyde.

Their positivity rate has dropped from a high of 17.6% a few days ago to 11.4% today, but their testing system is falling over and it's hard to know what to believe. It was 6.4% yesterday.

Plumbthedepths

JimToken wrote: »

One across the road from the dail

Always sold out of crayons

That'll be Simon and MM. Mad for the colouring those lads.

ACitizenErased

Friend of mine just got her result back, 74 hours after being tested. Not sure if her sample was reanalysed or what, but negative anyway.

seamus

Eod100 wrote: »

Wonder how/whether this will work in practice tbh.

''Under the new plans, gardaí can call to a door and break up a house party but they may not enter the home. Instead they will ask the owner to break up the party and if they refuse to do so they will be fined under a fixed charge notice.''

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/level-5-latest-garda%C3%AD-to-be-given-new-powers-to-fine-people-for-holding-house-parties-1.4385990

The number of fines issued and enforced will probably end up being pretty small - some student answers the door and says they don't know who the homeowner is; there's feck all the Garda can do about that.

But the threat alone should probably be sufficient, as well as the the fact that people will feel like something *can* be done. Twitching curtains are a pain in the hole, but they can have the effect of putting manners on people.

lawred2

hmmm wrote: »

I think you're underestimating the fragility of complex IT systems, particularly industrial control and financial systems, and the amount of testing which is required for even seemingly minor changes. Correct time is a huge deal for many companies.

huge amount of bugs in software systems are time and time zone related

political analyst

gmisk wrote: »

It is a really high number when you take into account how few beds we have per head of population (I think 4th worst in the EU).
If we hit numbers like that with seasonal flu etc now in the coming months we will be in trouble imo.

Stephen Donnelly told Claire Byrne last night that more ICU beds were put in place.

Funsterdelux

perrito caliente wrote: »

She has a smokin' body, that's just an ojective fact.

tayto lover

Anyone know if the golf courses are to close?

Sakana

Longing wrote: »

An Easyjet passenger is thrown off the Belfast to Edinburgh flight after she refused to wear a face covering.

https://twitter.com/LFC_blano/status/1317948341544800258

Should be doing time for coughing on people.

ixoy

lawred2 wrote: »

huge amount of bugs in software systems are time and time zone related

Let's all adopt UTC, save ourselves some hassle.

Plumbthedepths

A lad got abuse here for saying the vaccine will not prevent infection.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40067709.html

WoollyRedHat

seamus wrote: »

The number of fines issued and enforced will probably end up being pretty small - some student answers the door and says they don't know who the homeowner is; there's feck all the Garda can do about that.

But the threat alone should probably be sufficient, as well as the the fact that people will feel like something *can* be done. Twitching curtains are a pain in the hole, but they can have the effect of putting manners on people.

Surely if that happens, they can simply issue the FCN to the address after?

JimToken

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Surely if that happens, they can simply issue the FCN to the address after?

That's not legal surely? Has to be a person

seamus

political analyst wrote: »

But probability and modelling might be wrong because NPHET cannot be certain of how many cases there will be from one day to the next. If NPHET is wrong then the damage to the economy will be for nothing and then there'll be severe cutbacks to the health service, thus causing many more deaths than Covid ever could.

They can estimate.

If there are 500 cases today, then it is unlikely that there will be a massive deviation tomorrow. It'll be slightly more or slightly less, depending on how it's spreading. So tomorrow's number can be predicted with a high level of confidence. And then tomorrow's number can be used to predict the next day, with a high but slightly lower level of confidence.

And so. This process can be used to make predictions several weeks out. The predictions get wider as time goes on, but you can still have a high level of confidence in the prediction.

That's the absolute basics of it, but the models that they use for this kind of stuff includes a sh1tload of variables and things they know about infection spread and human behaviour.

In the absence of an equally competent body showing data that contradict's NPHETs models, then we have to assume they're right. Or they are at least the closest thing we have to being right.

spookwoman

Where there is a will there is a way.

Missing Operations report for the 19th found in the background
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-20-00-19-october-2020.pdf

petes

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

A lad got abuse here for saying the vaccine will not prevent infection.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40067709.html

Surely people get abuse here all the time :pac:

Billgirlylegs

circadian wrote: »

Seeing as I manage one of the busiest NTP pools in Europe, I can categorically say this is absolute horse****.

It was confirmed an hour ago.

froog

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

A lad got abuse here for saying the vaccine will not prevent infection.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40067709.html

No he didnt. He got "abuse" for saying any vaccine will only prevent mild symptoms and do nothing else.

seamus

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Surely if that happens, they can simply issue the FCN to the address after?

I don't know.

If it's a rented property, the landlord can't be held legally responsible.

Even if it's owned by someone they can feign ignorance; "I was somewhere else, no Garda ever spoke to me about breaking up a party. It must have been my son".

I'm splitting hairs on it though really; the existence of a penalty and the risk of Gardai knocking on doors will be enough to increase compliance for the most part.

AnniePowwa

Stheno wrote: »

Have they been assimilated?


Yes they are closing

nope

Funsterdelux

Deleted User wrote: »

And half of them probably got the wrong thing, such was the panic. Wife called in to Smyths today and grabbed a catalogue so we can do click and collect in our own time

Hopefully they ll get their stock levels up. We'd ordered 2 items for collection last week and when it came to collect, one of the items were out of stock. Bit of a dose if you have to travel.

Luckily it was just an additional item. We usually have most of the kids stuff gotten before halloween in general, avoids disappointment.

polesheep

seamus wrote: »

I don't know.

If it's a rented property, the landlord can't be held legally responsible.

Even if it's owned by someone they can feign ignorance; "I was somewhere else, no Garda ever spoke to me about breaking up a party. It must have been my son".

I'm splitting hairs on it though really; the existence of a penalty and the risk of Gardai knocking on doors will be enough to increase compliance for the most part.

The whole house party thing was wildly exaggerated. There are far more significant factors at play in the spread of the virus.

Plumbthedepths

petes wrote: »

Surely people get abuse here all the time :pac:

People get abused here even when they state fact all the time aswell Pete.

WoollyRedHat

Neddyusa wrote: »

Correlation is not causation.

Unfortunately sometimes even decision makers in NEPHET and the civil service don't seem to grasp this.

For example, see the nonsense Advertisement from the HSE a couple of weeks ago about a covid cluster apparently caused by one couple who went for a meal and then to two houses. They "infected" 7 people in the restaurant and went on to "infect" two other families in their homes etc etc.

There is no way on earth that you could definitively say who had been infected first and therefore who infected who. But unfortunately whoever came up with that tweet believed that correlaton = causation.

All this type of discussion is doing is sowing division and encouraging people to blame others whether its young people, county finals, meat factories, travellers etc etc.

This is a highly infectious virus lads and its everywhere - nobody is to blame. Time to learn to manage and live with it.
Trying to stop it without entirely destroying our societies and economies is akin to trying to stop the sun setting in the west or the rain falling from the sky

You can identify who started a cluster through an effective ITTIC programme (investigate, trace, test (including rapid targeted testing) , isolate and control). Using the retrospective tracing method, it's possible to identify who started the chain of transmission. This can only be achieved when cases are at a manageable level and with compliance, impossible currently.

In terms of stats, there is plenty of data to suggest that up to 20% of people are responsible for 80% of infections. Once you break the chain of transmission, the number of cases decreases dramatically as has been achieved in Eastern Countries, such as Taiwan, South Korea Japan

tigger123

polesheep wrote: »

The whole house party thing was wildly exaggerated. There are far more significant factors at play in the spread of the virus.

Source?

polesheep

tigger123 wrote: »

Source?

Most ridiculous call for a source on the Internet ever.

Eod100

CMO on News At One now on RTE radio 1. Doesn't do too many media appearances besides the briefings.

niallo27

seamus wrote: »

They can estimate.

If there are 500 cases today, then it is unlikely that there will be a massive deviation tomorrow. It'll be slightly more or slightly less, depending on how it's spreading. So tomorrow's number can be predicted with a high level of confidence. And then tomorrow's number can be used to predict the next day, with a high but slightly lower level of confidence.

And so. This process can be used to make predictions several weeks out. The predictions get wider as time goes on, but you can still have a high level of confidence in the prediction.

That's the absolute basics of it, but the models that they use for this kind of stuff includes a sh1tload of variables and things they know about infection spread and human behaviour.

In the absence of an equally competent body showing data that contradict's NPHETs models, then we have to assume they're right. Or they are at least the closest thing we have to being right.

OK so the thursday before level 5 was advised over 2 weeks ago when nphet said no counties needed to move from level 2, did these models not show the same problems. What data did they get in 2 days, and the only variable they are using is the r value, its not some complex algorithm believe me.

BringBackMick

Eod100 wrote: »

CMO on News At One now on RTE radio 1. Doesn't do too many media appearances besides the briefings.

Well this is his baby, so let him sell tbf

Pitch n Putt

polesheep wrote: »

The whole house party thing was wildly exaggerated. There are far more significant factors at play in the spread of the virus.

Exactly.
Schools being the main one.

Remember remember way back in February children were labelled super spreaders

Now it’s fine for a couple of hundred of them to mix daily whilst we try to suppress the virus once again.

No drop in numbers will be seen as long as schools remain open.

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

Wonder how/whether this will work in practice tbh.

''Under the new plans, gardaí can call to a door and break up a house party but they may not enter the home. Instead they will ask the owner to break up the party and if they refuse to do so they will be fined under a fixed charge notice.''

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/level-5-latest-garda%C3%AD-to-be-given-new-powers-to-fine-people-for-holding-house-parties-1.4385990

Sent it onto a mate who's a Garda in Dublin (posted a few things he's said to me before), his reply was basically changes nothing, might act as a deterrent but that those calls are bottom of a queue and get the standard we'll send a car when it's a available response, said they haven't been and won't be responding to calls all night long in relation to gatherings. He says other colleagues have said that if you wanted you could spend the whole night on just calls for gatherings and they don't.

His inspector told them this morning to police the same was as they have been throughout.

weldoninhio

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

This is no proper pandemic. It’s a media and social media driven fear induced pandemic.

Most people who are tested don’t even realise they have the god dam virus.

Twenty years ago there’d be no lockdown and masks would be optional. The internet has a lot to answer for.

Sakana

BringBackMick wrote: »

Definite mental health issues there. Hope she got help.

Could be, but plenty of mentally healthy scumbags would do the same.

caveat emptor

Nature publishing study on reinfection. Seems UK are also getting people prepared for the likelihood.

https://twitter.com/alinouriphd/status/1318299845287923713?s=21

https://twitter.com/alinouriphd/status/1318299847775092743?s=21

Eod100

BringBackMick wrote: »

Well this is his baby, so let him sell tbf

Government could have suggested an alternative too. Reality is we have to have these rolling lockdowns because underinvestment and poor management of resources in health system and because government have decided zero covid not feasible. Doesn't leave many options left.

polesheep

Sakana wrote: »

Could be, but plenty of mentally healthy scumbags would do the same.

I doubt they would pay for a flight and go to all the trouble associated with air travel just to make a point about masks. The situation we find ourselves in is pushing some people over the edge. It's to be expected.

tayto lover

Where’s the thread with all the funny pictures gone?
I could do with a laugh just now.

xhomelezz

tayto lover wrote: »

Where’s the thread with all the funny pictures gone?
I could do with a laugh just now.

That new list of restrictions did the job for me.

TonyMaloney

niallo27 wrote: »

OK so the thursday before level 5 was advised over 2 weeks ago when nphet said no counties needed to move from level 2, did these models not show the same problems. What data did they get in 2 days, and the only variable they are using is the r value, its not some complex algorithm believe me.

hahaha, no thank you

Glynn was under significant pressure from politicians and media to open pubs and keep the level low.
He wrote a letter to the gov where he outlined many of his concerns, but seemed to somewhat bottle the recommendation.

weldoninhio

weldoninhio wrote: »

Twenty years ago there’d be no lockdown and masks would be optional. The internet has a lot to answer for.

Yep it's given conspiracy theorists and other people as thick as a plank the ability to post stuff to more people as thick as they are.

mohawk

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Who is to say what is non essential or not? What the hell is wrong with click and collect? We need to give business every chance to survive.

I am not disagreeing with you. I am fully behind everyone doing their bit to support business. Basically click and collect is allowed which I support fully. Yet shopping is not listed as essential. They are bringing in fines for going beyond 5km from your home therefore I think it should be clear what we can go beyond the 5km for. The Guards won’t fine me for grocery shopping but I wonder if they can fine me if journey isn’t for going to pick something up from a bookstore or another shop not deemed to be essential. Those that don’t stick to the rules will just lie about where they are going anyway. Those that do stick to the rules won’t avail of click and collect if there is uncertainty around it. The last thing any business needs is uncertainty especially right now.

eagle eye

spookwoman wrote: »

Daily operations report from last night before it was deleted from site

Why was it deleted?

Away With The Fairies

caveat emptor wrote: »

Nature publishing study on reinfection. Seems UK are also getting people prepared for the likelihood.

https://twitter.com/alinouriphd/status/1318299845287923713?s=21

https://twitter.com/alinouriphd/status/1318299847775092743?s=21

So these re-infections aren't outliers. But we live in Ireland so that's an exception.

CoronaBlocker

Eod100 wrote: »

Government could have suggested an alternative too. Reality is we have to have these rolling lockdowns because underinvestment and poor management of resources in health system and because government have decided zero covid not feasible. Doesn't leave many options left.

Underinvestment was never the issue. It was all on the mismanagement/waste side of things. Scan budgets going back 20 years if you need to.

niallo27

TonyMaloney wrote: »

hahaha, no thank you

Glynn was under significant pressure from politicians and media to open pubs and keep the level low.
He wrote a letter to the gov where he outlined many of his concerns, but seemed to somewhat bottle the recommendation.

Did you quote the wrong person

pjohnson

polesheep wrote: »

I doubt they would pay for a flight and go to all the trouble associated with air travel just to make a point about masks. The situation we find ourselves in is pushing some people over the edge. It's to be expected.

There was a good few in the relaxation thread saying they would. And discussing "tactics" to avoid it. I think they agreed nursing a glass of water was "the best" way to "win".