Exit Strategy

tobefrank321

timeToLive wrote: »

So when do we think we'll be in lockdown #3?

It will be rolled back to level 3 in early December. It will be rolled forward to level 5 again mid January.

We'll be between levels 3 and 5 for most if not all of 2021.

If the vaccine provides sterilising immunity (prevents you being infected and infecting others) and is at least 90% effective in high risk categories, life will return to normal in 2022.

If it doesn't provide sterilising immunity and is only partially effective in high risk categories our exit strategy will be herd immunity in a couple years time but of course that relies on probably 70% of the population being infected whether they are vacccinated or not. Herd immunity is going to happen eventually, the question is when not if.

Loafing Oaf

timeToLive wrote: »

So when do we think we'll be in lockdown #3?

I'd say March/April, just a year on from lockdown 1

Away With The Fairies

tobefrank321 wrote: »

It will be rolled back to level 3 in early December. It will be rolled forward to level 5 again mid January.

We'll be between levels 3 and 5 for most if not all of 2021.

If the vaccine provides sterilising immunity (prevents you being infected and infecting others) and is at least 90% effective in high risk categories, life will return to normal in 2022.

If it doesn't provide sterilising immunity and is only partially effective in high risk categories our exit strategy will be herd immunity in a couple years time but of course that relies on probably 70% of the population being infected whether they are vacccinated or not. Herd immunity is going to happen eventually, the question is when not if.

How is herd immunity an option with re-infections? It's going around in circles.

Dickie10

the vaccine will be given maybe almost mandatory during autumn 2021, the government will then begin to try to disentangle themselves from this, i would think they will have scrambled loads more icu beds, they must be thinking that theres a good chance case numbers will be persistantly high for months after vaccine comes out so they will step down NYPHET this time next year, start rolling back restrictions to say level2-3 for xmas 21, then hope to God the vaccine works. I think they will begin to divert the public away from covid19 news there may be still guidance on covid control but they will keep it fairly low key, no real restrictions anymore in 2022, now we could and will have maybe 1000 cases a day in summer 2022 but the nations eyes will be averted, old people will die of flu/virus/old age/coplications but not a lot will be down as covid even though it could well be. this is the only hope we have to get out of this social experiment, we give the vaccine a shot and hope for the best and start to stop thinking and looking for info on covid.

heres the thing if we were never told anything about covid would the ordinary joe on the stret have really copped it was anything more than a bad aul dose going around? yes people die in nursing homes , thats part and parcel of life in a nurseing home, surely it happens every winter a flu virus gets in and takes a few people within a few weeks, how many other virus are out there right now taking us , infecting us, perhaps causing cancer? if we lived thinking about your head would fry.you cant think that way.

i suppose like if you got the choice of cancer or covid who wouldnt choose covid all day?

froog

everyone's alternative plan to lockdowns is just various measures from levels 3-5.

Dickie10

mine is until the vaccine then we have to let people get the shot or not and throw off all restrictions and hope for the best. i feel 2021 will be another year of restrictions between 2 and 5.

tobefrank321

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

How is herd immunity an option with re-infections? It's going around in circles.

10 or less confirmed reinfections out of 40 million plus confirmed cases.

If you want to make a big deal out of reinfection workaway.

You've a far higher chance of being struck by lightening or winning the lotto than being reinfected at present.

Away With The Fairies

tobefrank321 wrote: »

10 or less confirmed reinfections out of 40 million plus confirmed cases.

If you want to make a big deal out of reinfection workaway.

You've a far higher chance of being struck by lightening or winning the lotto than being reinfected at present.

A poster in the main thread who works in a hospital has seen his colleagues be re-infected but the HSE is being quite on that. But no doubt you'll find another excuse to dismiss reality.

tobefrank321

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

A poster in the main thread who works in a hospital has seen his colleagues be re-infected but the HSE is being quite on that. But no doubt you'll find another excuse to dismiss reality.

Source, evidence, link?

Facts? Or anecdotes?

And do you think every healthcare system in the world is also keeping quiet about it?

If so, conspiracy forum that way >>

Unless its been proven, then yes its easy to dismiss.

Strumms

Dickie10 wrote: »

the vaccine will be given maybe almost mandatory during autumn 2021, the government will then begin to try to disentangle themselves from this, i would think they will have scrambled loads more icu beds, they must be thinking that theres a good chance case numbers will be persistantly high for months after vaccine comes out so they will step down NYPHET this time next year, start rolling back restrictions to say level2-3 for xmas 21, then hope to God the vaccine works. I think they will begin to divert the public away from covid19 news there may be still guidance on covid control but they will keep it fairly low key, no real restrictions anymore in 2022, now we could and will have maybe 1000 cases a day in summer 2022 but the nations eyes will be averted, old people will die of flu/virus/old age/coplications but not a lot will be down as covid even though it could well be. this is the only hope we have to get out of this social experiment, we give the vaccine a shot and hope for the best and start to stop thinking and looking for info on covid.

?

Scrambling more ICU beds hmmmm... where do we get people to staff them ..?

Do you have a magic tree to pull qualified doctors, ICU surgeons, qualified ICU critical care nurses, carers, anesthesiologists, all the equipment ?

It’s nowhere near as easy as just saying “ ok, a load of doctors and nurses into that ward, that’s icu now “.

DeanAustin

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Source, evidence, link?

Facts? Or anecdotes?

And do you think every healthcare system in the world is also keeping quiet about it?

If so, conspiracy forum that way >>

Unless its been proven, then yes its easy to dismiss.

Next you’ll be telling me that all these people saying they had it last December aren’t genuine cases too.

end of the road

tobefrank321 wrote: »

10 or less confirmed reinfections out of 40 million plus confirmed cases.

If you want to make a big deal out of reinfection workaway.

You've a far higher chance of being struck by lightening or winning the lotto than being reinfected at present.

that's really irrelevant though as it's not the number of reinfections that is the issue for the herd immunity nonsense, but the fact reinfections can happen.

polesheep

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

A poster in the main thread who works in a hospital has seen his colleagues be re-infected but the HSE is being quite on that. But no doubt you'll find another excuse to dismiss reality.

That poster couldn't provide a shred of evidence to back up what he wrote.

tom1ie

We may never get a vaccine for this.
There has never been a vaccine for a corona virus.

We will have to live with this, and that involves opening up economy’s as they were, BUT, if we want to protect the vulnerable, masks must be worn, social distancing must be adhered to and hands must be sanitised.
This will continue until herd immunity is reached at approx 70% or a vaccine is developed. (That’s presuming herd immunity is indeed possible.)

PopePalpatine

tom1ie wrote: »

We may never get a vaccine for this.
There has never been a vaccine for a corona virus.

I'll go out on a limb here and guess that the last coronavirus to wreak this much havoc on society probably predates germ theory.

polesheep

tom1ie wrote: »

We may never get a vaccine for this.
There has never been a vaccine for a corona virus.

We will have to live with this, and that involves opening up economy’s as they were, BUT, if we want to protect the vulnerable, masks must be worn, social distancing must be adhered to and hands must be sanitised.
This will continue until herd immunity is reached at approx 70% or a vaccine is developed. (That’s presuming herd immunity is indeed possible.)

But if you continue with those precautions, herd immunity may never be reached.

DaSilva

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I'll go out on a limb here and guess that the last coronavirus to wreak this much havoc on society probably predates germ theory.

Maybe, maybe not. Supposedly a Danish researcher has a paper in the works on this too with more evidence it was OC43, but it hasn't been published yet

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/

IN 1889, a disease outbreak in central Asia went global, igniting a pandemic that burned into the following year. It caused fever and fatigue, and killed an estimated 1 million people. The disease is generally blamed on influenza, and was dubbed “Russian flu“. But with no tissue samples to check for the flu virus, there is no conclusive proof.

Another possibility is that this “flu” was actually a coronavirus pandemic. The finger has been pointed at a virus first isolated in the 1960s, though today it causes nothing more serious than a common cold. In fact, there are four coronaviruses responsible for an estimated 20 to 30 per cent of colds. Only recently have virologists begun to dig into these seemingly humdrum pathogens and what they have found suggests the viruses have a far more deadly past. Researchers now believe that all four of these viruses began to infect humans in the past few centuries and, when they did, they probably sparked pandemics.

PopePalpatine

Stop drinking the hand sanitiser. Get some help.

tom1ie

polesheep wrote: »

But if you continue with those precautions, herd immunity may never be reached.

Well this is the thing.
We are doing these precautions and getting approx 1000 cases a day anyway.
So if we go for herd immunity without precautions we risk a collapse of the health service.

H8GHOTI

froog wrote: »

everyone's alternative plan to lockdowns is just various measures from levels 3-5.

Well ya? Is that a surprise?
Besides herd immunity, the other option is some kind of restrictions. The government have covered pretty much all the bases throughout the levels. It’s not really possible to talk about this topic without mentioning the same measures.

The discussion is around which of the measures we should use & at what stage. Could we tweak anything to make it more effective? Should enforcement be better? Could contact tracing be more efficient. After this lockdown, is it possible to open up in such a way that we don’t get a 3rd wave?

tom1ie

H8GHOTI wrote: »

Well ya? Is that a surprise?
Besides herd immunity, the other option is some kind of restrictions. The government have covered pretty much all the bases throughout the levels. It’s not really possible to talk about this topic without mentioning the same measures.

The discussion is around which of the measures we should use & at what stage. Could we tweak anything to make it more effective? Should enforcement be better? Could contact tracing be more efficient. After this lockdown, is it possible to open up in such a way that we don’t get a 3rd wave?

Can’t see how we don’t get a 3rd wave.
Waves are created by lockdowns.
If you didn’t have a lockdown you wouldn’t have the downward curve of a wave. Likewise if you didn’t open up you wouldn’t have the upward surge as the virus infects more hosts.
The longer this goes on it will become clear we have three options:

1) open up and go for herd immunity with the result that the health service collapses with a high number of cases which results in a high death rate.

2) go for zero Covid, try and eradicate by closing borders and airports/ports, getting to zero and then quarantine for incoming travellers. Already ruled out by government and dubious if it will work in Ireland due to two different areas operating different approaches on the same island.

3) as we are, protect the vulnerable by locking down at the expense of the economy and hope to jaysus the Eu doesn’t stop lending any time soon.

All 3 options are pretty ****e but which option is the least worse?

Mr. Karate

tom1ie wrote: »

Can’t see how we don’t get a 3rd wave.

They were talking about a 3rd wave already. Supposedly this could go on for 5 years. The Country will be completely destroyed by then. Maybe if the EU/IMF day they'll collect payments from these idiots pensions then maybe they'll figure something else beside continually locking down to by a continuously feckless and useless HSE time.

end of the road

Mr. Karate wrote: »

They were talking about a 3rd wave already. Supposedly this could go on for 5 years. The Country will be completely destroyed by then. Maybe if the EU/IMF day they'll collect payments from these idiots pensions then maybe they'll figure something else beside continually locking down to by a continuously feckless and useless HSE time.

they won't, as the same issues are effecting european nations as a whole and the majority are operating similarly to us with the odd deviation.

tom1ie

end of the road wrote: »

they won't, as the same issues are effecting european nations as a whole and the majority are operating similarly to us with the odd deviation.

So as long as the Eu keep propping up our government by lending money, what we see now is our strategy going forward.

Hobgoblin11

tom1ie wrote: »

Well this is the thing.
We are doing these precautions and getting approx 1000 cases a day anyway.
So if we go for herd immunity without precautions we risk a collapse of the health service.

GOING for herd immunity is immoral

Irish Stones

end of the road wrote: »

that's really irrelevant though as it's not the number of reinfections that is the issue for the herd immunity nonsense, but the fact reinfections can happen.

Reinfections can happen, as it happens with lots of viral diseases, but the numbers of reinfections to this virus are so low so far that it is like it's not happening.

Someone says that immunity to the virus only lasts a very few months, three months on average.
This would mean that by now, a good part of those who got the virus back in March should get the infection again. And this is not happening, so I think that the immunity is quite long if not permanent.

Mr. Karate

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

GOING for herd immunity is immoral

So is keeping us in an endless cycle of being in and out of lockdowns until we economically make 3rd World Countries look rich.

Loafing Oaf

Mr. Karate wrote: »

So is keeping us in an endless cycle of being in and out of lockdowns until we economically make 3rd World Countries look rich.

I suppose the hope is if the virus becomes widely available some time in the middle of next year, we might get away with just one more lockdown after this one...

Mr. Karate

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I suppose the hope is if the virus becomes widely available some time in the middle of next year, we might get away with just one more lockdown after this one...

They were talking about a 3rd one this morning. The fix is definitely in. Its crazy how the Irish are willing to roll over and let Ireland be destroyed by these traitors.

votecounts

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

I suppose the hope is if the virus becomes widely available some time in the middle of next year, we might get away with just one more lockdown after this one...

I hope you mean vaccine:)