Will there be another lockdown?

moritz1234

Augeo wrote: »

With the number of cases over the last 14 days being what they were and contact tracing etc I'd find it more shocking if the cases detected were much lower tbh given the R number is close to 2 now.

Also a single day's results can't be taken in isolation, they have to be viewed in 3 or 5 successive days IMO

How many deaths and hospitalizations ?
Who changed the narrative to "cases" ?

Scuid Mhór

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/dramatic-action-needed-to-reduce-spread-of-covid-19-infectious-disease-expert-1.4331644

We need a change in policy. Our policy is too emergency/reactionary mode given we are over six months into this.

I agree with with the scientists, such as Mcconkey et Al. Aim for zero covid given that we live on one of the few islands in Europe. We need to exploit our geographical advantages.

(1) Govt announce zero covid policy.
(2) Announce strict lockdown in ROI given cases have increased in all counties North/South.
(3) Implement strict quarantine/controls at our airports/ports.
(4) Diplomacy/engagement for NI and UK to follow similar border controls etc.

I agree, it’s frustrating that this will never happen (and even more frustrating that it wasn’t our first strategy when this broke out in March). We should be utilising the fact that we are an island against this virus.

moritz1234

moritz1234 wrote: »

How many deaths and hospitalizations ?
Who changed the narrative to "cases" ?

I was replying to a post that mentioned cases.

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Or, just simply, go with the New Zealand approach, close the airports

Do we close ferry terminals too?

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/dramatic-action-needed-to-reduce-spread-of-covid-19-infectious-disease-expert-1.4331644

We need a change in policy. Our policy is too emergency/reactionary mode given we are over six months into this.

I agree with with the scientists, such as Mcconkey et Al. Aim for zero covid given that we live on one of the few islands in Europe. We need to exploit our geographical advantages.

(1) Govt announce zero covid policy.
(2) Announce strict lockdown in ROI given cases have increased in all counties North/South.
(3) Implement strict quarantine/controls at our airports/ports.
(4) Diplomacy/engagement for NI and UK to follow similar border controls etc.

Zero covid is impossible with the border, the DUP will never engage with us to the level required as it would be to close to sounding like a UI for them

lee_baby_simms

moritz1234 wrote: »

How many deaths and hospitalizations ?
Who changed the narrative to "cases" ?

Deaths are not a meaningful metric anymore it would seem.

Ironically this is a frightening state of affairs. Negligible deaths but hyper testing means the government can keep panic and hysteria stoked for years. Certainly seems to be the way its going if the last few weeks are anything to go by.

seamus

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

We should be utilising the fact that we are an island against this virus.

The mistake you're making is believing that there is a "we".

There are basically 3 governments on this island - Dublin and two halves of Stormont. One of those halves of Stormont would rather sink the entire island into the sea than agree to unify the jurisdiction, even on a temporary basis.

We can moan and be disappointed about this all we like, but that won't change a thing. A zero-covid, all-island approach is not possible.

lee_baby_simms

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

...............

Ironically this is a frightening state of affairs. Negligible deaths but hyper testing means the government can keep panic and hysteria stoked for years. Certainly seems to be the way its going if the last few weeks are anything to go by.

There's little to no panic and hysteria but if handwashing, social distancing etc can keep deaths down then isn't that fantastic.

ELM327

Augeo wrote: »

Do we close ferry terminals too?

Except for needed goods, yes. Closed to private cars and motorhomes/caravans.

redunited

seamus wrote: »

The mistake you're making is believing that there is a "we".

There are basically 3 governments on this island - Dublin and two halves of Stormont. One of those halves of Stormont would rather sink the entire island into the sea than agree to unify the jurisdiction, even on a temporary basis.

We can moan and be disappointed about this all we like, but that won't change a thing. A zero-covid, all-island approach is not possible.

Then we deal with London, ask them to work with Dublin and enforce an all Ireland policy.

I very much think this type of deal could be struck with Boris, especially if we back the UK in EU talks.

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Except for needed goods, yes. Closed to private cars and motorhomes/caravans.

Won't happen. EU etc etc etc ........you know all that.

moritz1234

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Deaths are not a meaningful metric anymore it would seem.

Ironically this is a frightening state of affairs. Negligible deaths but hyper testing means the government can keep panic and hysteria stoked for years. Certainly seems to be the way its going if the last few weeks are anything to go by.

Ireland has turned in to a jokeshop, do they think they'll get medal from the EU ?
Country is being laughed at
Germany are going about their business quiet well, we need to cop on

stephenjmcd

redunited wrote: »

Then we deal with London, ask them to work with Dublin and enforce an all Ireland policy.

I very much think this type of deal could be struck with Boris, especially if we back the UK in EU talks.

Thats just not going to happen now be realistic both in terms of dealing with London and then EU talks and us backing the UK.

Pipe dream

The Unbearables

ELM327 wrote: »

Or, just simply, go with the New Zealand approach, close the airports

We need this now. No more BS or excuses from the "we can't do anything to annoy our european overlord" politicians.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Ok so zero covid, shut ourselves off from everywhere for how long ? Until a vaccine? We're not New Zealand out in the middle of nowhere, the only comparison is we're both islands and it ends there.

We have 2 different countries on the same island with no border and different policies. You honestly think NI / UK will decide yeah let's do the same thing as Ireland. Johnson isn't going to roll back now.

Its just not going to happen.

Good Friday agreement had the same level of " its too difficult they have not agreed in 30 years". It happened though and we all reaped the benefits. Politicians are ignoring the science. It's time for them to do their job and manage this with coherent plan. Strict border controls does not mean people cannot come here. It means anybody cannot just walk into our country without assessing their risk properly. New Zealand/austrailia/China and a few others have shown how you "live with this". Any country that don't manage it like them are just poorly managing it. The extreme being Brazil/USA/India. A country is either managing it well or they are not. Its that simple.

gral6

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/dramatic-action-needed-to-reduce-spread-of-covid-19-infectious-disease-expert-1.4331644

We need a change in policy. Our policy is too emergency/reactionary mode given we are over six months into this.

I agree with with the scientists, such as Mcconkey et Al. Aim for zero covid given that we live on one of the few islands in Europe. We need to exploit our geographical advantages.

(1) Govt announce zero covid policy.
(2) Announce strict lockdown in ROI given cases have increased in all counties North/South.
(3) Implement strict quarantine/controls at our airports/ports.
(4) Diplomacy/engagement for NI and UK to follow similar border controls etc.

Such unrealistic bul****. Makes no sense at all.

seamus

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Deaths are not a meaningful metric anymore it would seem.

Ironically this is a frightening state of affairs. Negligible deaths but hyper testing means the government can keep panic and hysteria stoked for years. Certainly seems to be the way its going if the last few weeks are anything to go by.

Deaths alone have never been the only metric at any time during this crisis. It's facetious to pretend otherwise.

Hospitalisations have started ticking upwards, which is exactly what we would expect 3-4 weeks after case numbers start ticking upwards. In 3-4 weeks time we will see deaths start to tick up too. 1 or 2 day when we had seen many days, weeks even with negligible numbers.

Anyone who thinks that whether we lock down or open up should be based on deaths alone, is incredibly short sighted. These decisions were never made on that basis.

lee_baby_simms

Augeo wrote: »

There's little to no panic and hysteria but if handwashing, social distancing etc can keep deaths down then isn't that fantastic.

I think theres somewhat of a flawed narrative that NPHET have managed to sell to the public.

They've successfully convinced most of us that we are currently in some kind of a holding pattern. Due to their own expertise and full compliance of the public we are all collectively 'holding back the virus' like some kind invisible force field. If we don't hold firm we will see deaths go right back to March/April levels. The dreaded second wave.

Now we know from looking around the world that regardless of measures we're seeing a familiar rise and fall of hospitalisations/deaths in areas where the virus has already impacted.

While I agree fully with hand washing / social distancing along with shielding the vulnerable, I think the current and inevitable upcoming measures are not justified against the threat that virus currently poses.

VinLieger

redunited wrote: »

Then we deal with London, ask them to work with Dublin and enforce an all Ireland policy.

I very much think this type of deal could be struck with Boris, especially if we back the UK in EU talks.

Your very much wrong, the DUP will not simply do what Boris tells them especially in this case which again they will only see as legitimising the idea of a future UI

Deleted User wrote: »

Good Friday agreement had the same level of " its too difficult they have not agreed in 30 years". It happened though and we all reaped the benefits. Politicians are ignoring the science. It's time for them to do their job and manage this with coherent plan. Strict border controls does not mean people cannot come here. It means anybody cannot just walk into our country without assessing their risk properly. New Zealand/austrailia/China and a few others have shown how you "live with this". Any country that don't manage it like them are just poorly managing it. The extreme being Brazil/USA/India. A country is either managing it well or they are not. Its that simple.

How long did the Good Friday deal take to get across the line? Also the current DUP shower would rip up the GFA if they could, you are not living in reality if you believe the DUP will cooperate with Dublin in such a way.

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

Good Friday agreement had the same level of " its too difficult they have not agreed in 30 years".

Come on now. The GFA itself was the culmination of a decade of formal talks, which in themselves required two decades of fighting to come to the table.
Science and urgency aside, we've just spent four years trying to convince the Unionists not to commit economic suicide with Brexit.

They decided to consider any and every alternative, now matter how ridiculous, rather than get any closer to the Republic. It would be foolish to beleive that this time the outcome would be any different.

The Unbearables

Augeo wrote: »

Do we close ferry terminals too?

Yes absolutely. Everything but freight banned.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats just not going to happen now be realistic both in terms of dealing with London and then EU talks and us backing the UK.

Pipe dream

That was probably said about good Friday agreement. Why so negative? What's the worst that can happen? It comes back and someone says your policy is not perfect such as Auckland/Melbourne. No policy is perfect, but how's our current policy going? Its enivitable our government are going to introduce stricter conditions due to increases in cases throughout country in last month. People will get angry when restrictions are reintroduced and rightly so. Its not the meat factory owners fault or the young people. It's the poor government plan/policy to manage this.

Augeo

Augeo wrote: »

Do we close ferry terminals too?

We don't close anything. We control/quarantine.

lee_baby_simms

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

........

While I agree fully with hand washing / social distancing along with shielding the vulnerable, I think the current and inevitable upcoming measures are not justified against the threat that virus currently poses.

There's some merit to your point. I know more than a few fat, unhealthy goons who are in favour of full lockdown ......... it suits them grand to sit at home gorging on their unhealthy diet and guzzling craft beer and wine sh1tting on about how the vulnerable must be protected etc etc etc and how "the Covid is very dangerous" ...... oblivious to the fact they are shortening their lives via their lifestyle or lack of it.

gral6

The Unbearables wrote: »

Yes absolutely. Everything but freight banned.

Better dig up your bunker.

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

That was probably said about good Friday agreement. Why so negative?

Because the DUP are intransigent troglodytes who have spent 4 years of Brexit talks refusing to engage in any respect to save their own skins and they arent going to start now.

You really dont understand the problems or the people involved if your this blase about it.

The UUP signed the GFA not the DUP who have literally called it a mistake and would tear it up if they could, they will simply never engage in co-operation with Dublin that would have any positive effect on calls for a UI

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Come on now. The GFA itself was the culmination of a decade of formal talks, which in themselves required two decades of fighting to come to the table.
Science and urgency aside, we've just spent four years trying to convince the Unionists not to commit economic suicide with Brexit.

They decided to consider any and every alternative, now matter how ridiculous, rather than get any closer to the Republic. It would be foolish to beleive that this time the outcome would be any different.

Scotland and Northern Ireland have already endorsed zero covid policy. NI have not simply followed England and Boris. If anything they have followed us. They will follow us again. What have we to lose? When our numbers dropped so did theirs and all are now rising. We and them have to accept that we are interdependent on each other in this. Take a gamble announce policy and start talking. We will all be in some version of a lockdown for next month anyhow.

Akabusi

There cannot be another lockdown, it will be a pointless exercise as it will be ignored by too many. I'd wait and see if we can get the current spike in case flattened. If it can be shown that we can achieve this with the current levels of interactions and movements that would be a great result.
Living with this virus is the only option however this government is constantly reacting to the virus instead of being proactive. They knew the any industry where you have people working together indoors for long periods is very high risk but choose to ignore them and hope for the best. So far we have seen it in meat plants, construction sites and mushroom houses. I bet there are many more examples, take bakerys or any production line where you have people working side by side. Each county should put together a list of facilities which would be high risk and the people working in them need to be tested on a weekly or bi-weekly basis.
The school openings should be postponed to ensure we get the current spike under control, it may only be by a week or two but would make all the difference. Also regular testing of teachers and students needs to happen when they do open.

Elmer Blooker

Augeo wrote: »

There's some merit to your point. I know more than a few fat, unhealthy goons who are in favour of full lockdown ......... it suits them grand to sit at home gorging on their unhealthy diet and guzzling craft beer and wine sh1tting on about how the vulnerable must be protected etc etc etc and how "the Covid is very dangerous" ...... oblivious to the fact they are shortening their lives via their lifestyle or lack of it.

:pac: This is all so true, the takeaways have never had it so good over the past five months.
But what stands out is not once since the lockup started has one of these 'experts' who are on RTE morning, noon and night stressed the importance of a healthy diet to boost the immune system. Why is this, just go into any doctor's surgery and you will see leaflets prominently displayed telling us what healthy to eat and what should be avoided.

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

Scotland and Northern Ireland have already endorsed zero covid policy.

Have they? I can't find anything where Arlene Foster has mentioned a zero-covid approach. I'd be very interested to hear that she has.

What have we to lose? When our numbers dropped so did theirs and all are now rising. We and them have to accept that we are interdependent on each other in this.

You're preaching to the choir here mate. There's no-one on this thread who doesn't want an all-island approach to coronavirus. We just know it's an absolute impossibility.

Take a gamble announce policy and start talking.

If I thought there was even the tiniest chance that could work, I'd back it.

I know, with all my heart, that the unionists would immediately retreat to their bunker, say, "No, absolutely not", and accuse Dublin of attempting to annex the North by exploiting the crisis.