Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

pad199207

10° in Kildare. Feels positively balmy

DOCARCH

pad199207 wrote: »

10° in Kildare. Feels positively balmy

Touching 11c in Dublin 16 (10.9c).

First +10c temp here in nearly 4 weeks! Have to go back to December 18th.

bazlers

Has anyone the number of the Donegal postman ; )

pad199207

bazlers wrote: »

Has anyone the number of the Donegal postman ; )

Ya dirty aul yoke

Goldfinch8

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Balmy mild morning here in North Cork, it was like a summer morning when the sun came out for a while.

I would dearly love a few minutes of that North Cork sunshine here today! I have not seen a bit of sun since sometime over the weekend. The last few days have been grim, grey and predominantly wet here in this part of the west. Today is another day of the sky nearly scraping the ground again and you wouldn't even think that there were hills or mountains nearby. I yearn for those bright, crisp and frosty days of last week.

nacho libre

Goldfinch8 wrote: »

I would dearly love a few minutes of that North Cork sunshine here today! I have not seen a bit of sun since sometime over the weekend. The last few days have been grim, grey and predominantly wet here in this part of the west. Today is another day of the sky nearly scraping the ground again and you wouldn't even think that there were hills or mountains nearby. I yearn for those bright, crisp and frosty days of last week.

Same here. I have not seen the Sun in several days now. I know the last cold spell was frustrating in many ways, but at least we had some nice cold and dry days not this god awful muck.

daniel_t1409

The sun came out for a bit earlier on this morning in wexford but it's back to cloud now.

11.4c in Arklow
For sh1ts and giggles,open netweather or Two and read the model threads on what was a dead cert for this week...the previous week and next
Same people
Same mistakes
Same rubbish
Experts Mar dhea

nacho libre

Yeah as soon as I saw the latest model runs I knew there would be carnage over on Netweather. I see Steve Murr got banned from Netweather for a while.

KingJeremy

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah as soon as I saw the latest model runs I knew there would be carnage over on Netweather. I see Steve Murr got banned from Netweather for a while.

So is it really game-over for the next predicted upcoming cold spell? Damn :-( I wasn’t even holding out for snow but would love a repeat of the below zero, icy and frosty conditions we had last week

By the way T+ 168 models were wrong last week
They could be wrong last night
This situation could still easily flip and settle on a cold solution next week
In theory it should at least for a week or two
I'm going back to basics and watching the BBC TV forecasts like we did in the good old 1980s and when there's a sniff of Easterly or northeasterly off them,I'll check wetterzentrale and will be back here like a shot

Nudging 12c now in Arklow
Southwest Wind with weather systems forecast to spread from the southwest in the next few days
The Atlantic is alive and well and governing our weather as normal despite under attack from a series of strat warms,the first of which is stronger than 2018,a very weak about to be splt polar vortex, the villain that we usually blame for this kind of weather
Let's hope it's not a scamstrat we're dealing with here
We'll soon know

Gonzo

another horrible day here in Meath, very mild but wet and breezy. The local mean temperature is rising rapidly, was 0.4 on Monday, today it is 1.5C. It should easily get to 3C by the weekend.

murfo

AuntySnow wrote: »

By the way T+ 168 models were wrong last week
They could be wrong last night

Does anyone keep stats of how often patterns verify for every run past T+ 120?

Nqp15hhu

KingJeremy wrote: »

So is it really game-over for the next predicted upcoming cold spell? Damn :-( I wasn’t even holding out for snow but would love a repeat of the below zero, icy and frosty conditions we had last week

I wouldn’t say that.

nacho libre

KingJeremy wrote: »

So is it really game-over for the next predicted upcoming cold spell? Damn :-( I wasn’t even holding out for snow but would love a repeat of the below zero, icy and frosty conditions we had last week

I think a prolonged cold spell that guarantees snow as the main type of precipitation is looking less likely now. There may be slight changes, but an upgrade to a deep freeze looks unlikely. We could well have snow at times, but there will be a lot of cold rain about if the latest output is correct. Hopefully we will get cold and dry weather at some point. The Met Eireann long range forecast hints at it becoming drier into February. Hopefully, if there is no big freeze to come, that signal can be brought forward.

KingJeremy

nacho libre wrote: »

I think a prolonged cold spell that guarantees snow as the main type of precipitation is looking less likely now. There may be slight changes, but an upgrade to a deep freeze looks unlikely. We could well have snow at times, but there will be a lot of cold rain about if the latest output is correct. Hopefully we will get cold and dry weather at some point. The Met Eireann long range forecast hints at it becoming drier into February. Hopefully, if there is no big freeze to come, that signal can be brought forward.

Thanks Nacho. I’m ok with no snow - we didn’t get any from the last spell either. But would like another go at the freezing dry weather we had recently...not so much cold rain though :-/

murfo

murfo wrote: »

Does anyone keep stats of how often patterns verify for every run past T+ 120?

I do sometimes
Verification of day 10 is poor
Day 5 can also be 50:50
In between poor on the detail but sometimes OK on the over arching

Nqp15hhu

Kinda frustrated that tomorrow’s event will fall as snow in southern Scotland only 70-80 miles away.

This happens a few times a winter. Not sure why the boundary always falls on the other side of the Irish Sea.

murfo

AuntySnow wrote: »

I do sometimes
Verification of day 10 is poor
Day 5 can also be 50:50
In between poor on the detail but sometimes OK on the over arching

Neeeeeeeeerd!

nacho libre

KingJeremy wrote: »

Thanks Nacho. I’m ok with no snow - we didn’t get any from the last spell either. But would like another go at the freezing dry weather we had recently...not so much cold rain though :-/

After 4 days of grey and damp weather, i'm ok with no snow too, a few dry and crisp days would be great. I never thought i'd say something like that:pac:

daniel_t1409

Dull damp evening in wexford. Very mild.

Gonzo

could be hard to watch scenes of snow in the UK by tomorrow morning. Rain will turn increasingly to snow over many eastern and central parts of England and Scotland overnight, could be quite a dumping in places as the cold there moves west through the night but not really making it into Wales. A chance of a similar setup this weekend also. Ireland will remain mild into the early part of next week.

appledrop

Busy today wfh which suited as horrible dark, dreary , windy day here in NCD.

It was mild but sure why would you go out in that!

Hopefully tomorrow might be a bit brighter.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

could be hard to watch scenes of snow in the UK by tomorrow morning. Rain will turn increasingly to snow over many eastern and central parts of England and Scotland overnight, could be quite a dumping in places as the cold there moves west through the night but not really making it into Wales. A chance of a similar setup this weekend also. Ireland will remain mild into the early part of next week.

I saw this on the UKMO latest forecast. Unfortunately, it seems to be all panning out as their long range envisaged back before the SSW had even begun. The North to South divide over on Netweather might become more acute in the next couple of weeks, as even over there it will be joy for some and heartbreak for others.

Nqp15hhu

That’s what I said. It’s odd how the Irish Sea is a barrier to cold air. Snow in Ayrshire, 20 miles across the sea and its 10c and rain. Odd.

It’s as if there is some sort of invisible wall.

nacho libre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

That’s what I said. It’s odd how the Irish Sea is a barrier to cold air. Snow in Ayrshire, 20 miles across the sea and its 10c and rain. Odd.

It’s as if there is some sort of invisible wall.

We are just that bit closer to the Atlantic i'm afraid.

What I also find baffling is how with a supposedly dead Atlantic the ECM manages to phase and blow up lows that ensure any colder push is well and truly thwarted. I suppose no matter how weak it is, it can always find a way to spoil things for us.

Tyrone212

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

That’s what I said. It’s odd how the Irish Sea is a barrier to cold air. Snow in Ayrshire, 20 miles across the sea and its 10c and rain. Odd.

It’s as if there is some sort of invisible wall.

Weather system is stalling over the UK and hitting cold air there. Sometimes the North side of the jet has snow here while its rain on the South side of it. Just dividing lines between air masses that always exist, they just happen to be close by now. Don't think the Irish Sea has anything to do with it.

Nqp15hhu

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Weather system is stalling over the UK and hitting cold air there. Sometimes the North side of the jet has snow here while its rain on the South side of it. Just dividing lines between air masses that always exist, they just happen to be close by now. Don't think the Irish Sea has anything to do with it.

For this event, It flows in off the North Sea and stops at the Irish Sea.

Nqp15hhu

3c in west freugh, 10c in Belfast. Such a disappointment and irritation that the cold air would stop before getting here.

giveitholly

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is no cold air in GB right now. For this event, It flows in off the North Sea and stops at the Irish Sea.

If there is no cold air in GB,then how is it going to snow in parts of it?