Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

Tyrone212

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

For this event, It flows in off the North Sea and stops at the Irish Sea.

It was 2 3c across Ulster yesterday until the warm front crossed and now its double digits. That warm front is stalling across UK so snow areas there are still under the colder air.

nacho libre

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Weather system is stalling over the UK and hitting cold air there. Sometimes the North side of the jet has snow here while its rain on the South side of it. Just dividing lines between air masses that always exist, they just happen to be close by now. Don't think the Irish Sea has anything to do with it.

There is no barrier as such, more so the boundary between colder and milder air masses in Winter are usually over the UK, rather than Ireland in these situations. So they tend to do far better out of frontal situations in terms of snow than we do.

Gonzo

the cold air is across most of Scotland and north-eastern half of the England, this diving line is going to slowly move south-westwards over the next 24 hours so London to south-west Scotland will be the diving line between cold northerlies with wintry precipitation and mild south westerlies across Ireland, Northern Ireland, most of Wales and south-west England.



We will be in the cooler air from tomorrow evening and early on Friday, by then no precipitation and then another mild push with rain into Ireland from Friday afternoon and evening.



This rain on Friday evening will have a thin slice of warm air briefly rising temperatures into double figures here.



Once the rain clears Saturday morning we will be back into mid single digits along with much of the UK and we will then begin a cool spell of weather which may or may not turn into a cold spell. From Sunday we look low to mid single digits by day and around freezing or lower at night into much of next week.

Tyrone212

nacho libre wrote: »

There is no barrier as such, more so the boundary between colder and milder air masses in Winter are usually over the UK, rather than Ireland in these situations. So they tend to do far better out of frontal situations in terms of snow than we do.

Yes they do fair better, its often a North South line with the jet stream though. I've had frontal snow a good few times when it was rain 50 miles to the South of me. More a West East boundary this time as you say.

nacho libre

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKzQrfE8ISg

10 day trend from the UKMO.

Nqp15hhu

nacho libre wrote: »

There is no barrier as such, more so the boundary between colder and milder air masses in Winter are usually over the UK, rather than Ireland in these situations. So they tend to do far better out of frontal situations in terms of snow than we do.

Yes but the boundary often stops at the extreme western edge of Great Britain.

Oneiric 3

Faint hope but encouraging to see that the jet is trying to fire up off the east coast of N. America in the last frame of the ECM. Maybe we'll actually start to see some actual seasonal weather in the latter part of the month. Even a usual lame named 'storm' would be preferable to the vapid crap we have endured throughout the entirety of this month so far, which can basically be summed up as cold light rain followed by warm light rain.

Artane2002

nacho libre wrote: »

We are just that bit closer to the Atlantic i'm afraid.

What I also find baffling is how with a supposedly dead Atlantic the ECM manages to phase and blow up lows that ensure any colder push is well and truly thwarted. I suppose no matter how weak it is, it can always find a way to spoil things for us.

I've noticed that the ECM has developed a GFS-style habit of blowing up lows this winter, very annoying. I wonder if its upgrade has something to do with this?

mcburns07

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Faint hope but encouraging to see that the jet is trying to fire up off the east coast of N. America in the last frame of the ECM. Maybe we'll actually start to see some actual seasonal weather in the latter part of the month. Even a usual lame named 'storm' would be preferable to the vapid crap we have endured throughout the entirety of this month so far, which can basically be summed up as cold light rain followed by warm light rain.

In your area maybe. We had a great first 10 days of January in Cork with most days being sunny. Still only 1mm of rain recorded this month.

Scubadevils

Yes this mild muck is painful - and all the more challenging getting caught up in the cold chase roller coaster, the last time I did that was 2018...

Even to get back to low single digits next week will be great - along with some sub zero temps at night, I love standing in my garden as I did last week one night when it was about -3 and just feeling that cold, looking up at stars in the sky. The next morning, checking out where any water has frozen solid in some plant pots etc. Definitely a very big middle aged kid when it comes to cold weather!

irishrover99

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Maybe we'll actually start to see some actual seasonal weather in the latter part of the month. .

We are getting seasonal weather for Ireland. This is exactly the same winter we get every year give or take 1 or 2 degrees the odd day here or there.

Edit: just to add that I think we have had a fantastic autumn and winter so far.

esposito

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Faint hope but encouraging to see that the jet is trying to fire up off the east coast of N. America in the last frame of the ECM. Maybe we'll actually start to see some actual seasonal weather in the latter part of the month. Even a usual lame named 'storm' would be preferable to the vapid crap we have endured throughout the entirety of this month so far, which can basically be summed up as cold light rain followed by warm light rain.

You’re on the west coast right? Which explains the miserable weather you described. Can’t say it’s been the the same in the east. I really enjoyed the cold, frosty weather over the last two weeks. Hoping for something similar later next week. Snow is a bonus at this stage. As for your wish for a named storm... no thanks!

M.T. Cranium

The Thursday snow potential in parts of England comes from a rapid collapse of the warm sector in which Ireland is currently basking, that same mild air is also over Wales and southwest England. A low is forming over Northern Ireland tonight which will drop south-southeast across the Irish Sea into Wales and the west Midlands and then on to the south central counties. As it does so, colder air already in place over northeast England will be pulled into it, the milder air to its west will be modified by changes aloft, and temperatures widely near 10-12 C will fall in that sector to 7-8 while colder air will undercut the transitional zone at present and turn rain to sleet and in some places snow, as the system rapidly drops south. Thickness changes will be smaller over Ireland which will lead to a more gentle downward trend but by Friday morning it could be frosty again in parts of eastern Ireland.

A volatile period looms beyond that as a strong front forms on Friday night, temperatures are likely to go up instead of down overnight and peak around midnight to 0300h Saturday, then start falling again. Another more complex frontal system is scheduled for Monday. When it's fully past Ireland by early Tuesday, strong northwest winds will bring in much colder air.

Models are struggling with how deep that cold becomes over Britain and Ireland, and how long it remains in place, some guidance has flip-flopped over the past 24 hours showing a quick return to mild and rainy conditions by Friday of next week, then pulling that back off the table in the 12z model runs (GFS notably). There is probably about a one in three chance of a significant snowfall event affecting some parts of Ireland in this upcoming cold spell and about a nine in ten chance of at least localized snow showers most likely in the west and north.

I just had a major weather event outside my home office window, the large tree in the neighbour's property that is about 10 metres from my window got levelled by a windstorm last night here, fortunately for us it fell away from our building and across the unoccupied house's front verandah, crushing the corner of it (this is a large mature evergreen tree about 30 metres high, it was lifted right out of its root well). The low came in from the Pacific and tracked just north of here, is currently in Alberta and the winds eased off pretty fast, we're up fairly high here on the downslope of a minor mountain range between the larger Cascades and Selkirk-Rockies complex (the Monashees) and if the wind hits due west here it accelerates through a notch between two hills, other wind directions seem to get suppressed by higher terrain. This low is going to show up on Atlantic charts by the weekend, it's tracking east-south-east after this phase. A strong chinook wind is blowing across southern Alberta and a blizzard is raging in north-central Alberta into Saskatchewan at present. This has not been a particularly cold winter in western Canada but this is one part of the world where you can get a combination of above normal temperatures and heavy snow at our elevation at least. The thaw with the low's warm sector has reduced our snow depths from 60 to 45 cm and made a slushy mess in some places, think it peaked at 7 C overnight, now around 2 C.

Artane2002

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Faint hope but encouraging to see that the jet is trying to fire up off the east coast of N. America in the last frame of the ECM. Maybe we'll actually start to see some actual seasonal weather in the latter part of the month. Even a usual lame named 'storm' would be preferable to the vapid crap we have endured throughout the entirety of this month so far, which can basically be summed up as cold light rain followed by warm light rain.

you'd then have to deal with windy light rain :P

Oneiric 3

Good to see that our Euro brethren are at least getting something out of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8CARjrLQhw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8CARjrLQhw

Donegal Storm

Grey and misty in Letterkenny all day again.

Its been an incredibly boring winter here so far with barely a single day of any note, following on from an incredibly boring autumn and summer

piplip87

I'd settle for frost and dry mornings at this stage. Jaysus cleaning the floors after walking the dogs in the wet is soul destroying. Last week in the forest every day and clean dogs coming home.

Kunta Kinte

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Grey and misty in Letterkenny all day again.

Its been an incredibly boring winter here so far with barely a single day of any note, following on from an incredibly boring autumn and summer

With an incredibly boring spring still to come?

Gonzo

garden already getting squishy and mucky after so much rain over the past 3 days.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Good to see that our Euro brethren are at least getting something out of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8CARjrLQhw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8CARjrLQhw

Some great bassy thunder in that but Jebus Christ, why do people insist on recording vertically? Braindead.

nacho libre

Spring could come early if the GFS para is to be believed

Thelonious Monk

I enjoyed today, was mild and little wind in the afternoon no rain and nice for a jog. Was just out for a bit and its lovely and still and not cold.

lolie

Saturday mornings frost seems a long time ago now.
It has been grey and miserable week with 35mm of rain since monday evening.
Looking forward to a nice day tomorrow though.

Donegal Storm

Kunta Kinte wrote: »

With an incredibly boring spring still to come?

Lets hope for a repeat of last spring, I think we could all do with some bright sunshine

Gaoth Laidir

That phonebox in Hokkaido, Japan, got even more snow on it!

https://twitter.com/TAK17246558/status/1348296685806514178?s=19

Tyrone212

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That phonebox in Hokkaido, Japan, got even more snow on it!

https://twitter.com/TAK17246558/status/1348296685806514178?s=19

They must be on course for one of their snowiest seasons on record? Couple of times I've seen Japan on the News this year.

Nqp15hhu

It’s just icy rain/sleet in most of Scotland so that makes me feel slightly happier.

highdef

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

It’s just icy rain/sleet in most of Scotland so that makes me feel slightly happier.

Why? Something against Scotland?

Calibos

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That phonebox in Hokkaido, Japan, got even more snow on it!

https://twitter.com/TAK17246558/status/1348296685806514178?s=19

Tyrone212

highdef wrote: »

Why? Something against Scotland?

From reading his other posts I think he's means it is hard to watch snow across the water when its mild here.