Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

hometruths

Paddigol wrote: »

In March in appeared that there were a lot of people stridently of the view that we were heading for immediate and sharp drops in prices. A few people disagreed but their reasons were often dismissed. We haven't experienced the predicted drop, and I'm just wondering how people's views have shifted in the intervening period (if at all).

Interesting point. This was one of my first posts on the subject in early April. (I shudder to think how many I have made since then!)

schmittel wrote: »

I get that nobody knows whats going to happen and I'm no expert but even to a layman it seems plausible that higher property prices in Dublin are function of rental yield and demand:

i.e scarcity of properties to rent pushes rents up, which makes rental yields more attractive to investors and owner occupiers as mortgages are cheaper than rents. Hence demand for property rises, and prices rise.

It would follow that if rents fall, prices will fall too.

The most likely consequence of the coronavirus is that rents will fall because:

a) the arse will fall out the airbnb market - bookings have fallen of a cliff, and a lack of tourists for at least the next three months will see most of these properties offered for longer term lets = increased rental supply.

b) in the unlikely event that supply and demand does not force the hand of most of the airbnb landlords, whatever flavour of government we have after the dust settles will clamp down on the airbnb rules.

c) Increased supply of properties to rent will coincide with some level of decreased demand due to departing foreign casual workers and students etc. In the short term those who have left are unlikely to be replaced with a fresh influx.

This increased supply is likely to come online during and immediately after the lockdown, leading to a flood of availability of rental properties, leading to a flood of headlines about falling rents and the impact this might have on house prices.

The flood of headlines and news stories will lead to the following:

Cash rich investors who might otherwise have bought this year chasing a 6% or whatever yield will wait and see if the prices fall to the level that offers their target yield - decreased demand.

Investors who are not so cash rich, paying mortgages and worried about further falls, will try and get out of the market sooner rather than later - increased supply of stock for sale.

Renters who had planned to buy this year will weigh up cheaper rents vs possibility of further falls and decide to wait and see - decreased fresh demand.

Sellers will hold out for the price they think their property is worth, listings will linger with incremental small price decreases. Each decrease will reinforce the idea the potential buyers belief that it is better to wait.

The only properties that go sale agreed will be from forced sellers who have to sell due to their circumstances. These will be heavily discounted, appearing on the PPR thus putting further downward pressure on the live asking prices.

In the short term property prices will inevitably go down.

I'll reiterate I am no expert but all of the above seems likely, the only question is how long it lasts and by how much prices drop before they bounce again as they surely will.

Obviously whilst rental supply has increased and rents appear to have fallen, the above has not played out as expected yet.

So my views have shifted a little, but not a lot.

I fully expected the new government to crack down hard or airbnb, thus accelerating the increased rental supply - that has not happened.

I did not expect so many landlords to a) leave their properties vacant or b) refuse to reduce advertised rents, instead offering 2 free months or whatever.

These factors have delayed the rental price drops become as wide a talking point as I anticipated.

I still think it will happen in time though.

And I still think fresh investor demand will go down, putting downward pressure on prices.

I did not expect a surge in FTB demand, which seems to be pent up demand from FTB's looking to get in before the lock as it were. This has propped up prices in the last few months. I think this will ultimately wash through though and not be replaced by fresh FTB demand.

I also did not expect the government to continue the wage supports for this long. Back in April it was suggested they would active for 12 weeks - now it seems they are in place until next April.

Ultimately my view is much the same as it was in April, but we won't see it in action until government withdraw the supports.

Hubertj

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now?

Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.

what about a lift?

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/going-up-rathgar-super-homes-with-lifts-for-3-25m-each-1.4355294

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now?

Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.

sorry i must be mistaken, everyone wants to move out of dublin to live in a 3bed semi in an estate then is it?

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

sorry i must be mistaken, everyone wants to move out of dublin to live in a 3bed semi in an estate then is it?

only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The poorly done roof really plays on my OCD

Looks like either a cheap refurb or a cleaned up rental hitting the market

brisan

lalababa wrote: »

I find the rental market for house shares in Cork City very strange. For the last 10+ years when they were like hens teeth to find around start of college, maybe 30 places on Daft. Now there's like 280, and yet you have people asking last year's prices and in some cases more! Fair enough some are a bit cheaper than normal, but the overall picture is very weird.

Head in the sand stuff
I got X last year and I want X this year
College rental are gone for the year

PropQueries

thefridge2006 wrote: »

only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:

I think the majority of potential buyers would be 'happy enough', but not 'delighted' with just four walls and a roof to call their own. Many younger buyers today still buy and add to their house bit by bit over the years and I think the narrative put out that they all want a home with the latest kit and are willing to pay a significant premium for such housing is mostly wrong.

In relation to the ghost estates, which I think we can all agree that they are now mostly owned by the so-called vulture funds (€200 billion in property and business loans purchased by them between 2012 and 2016) can be brought to market very quickly if they see the demand.

They would have bought them for a fraction of even the low prices advertised during 2012 and 2013. For example, if they have ten houses in an estate down the country, for €10k each, they could put in new heating, windows, doors and a general refurbishment and have them on the market within 8 weeks. There's generally no planning permission needed, no breaking ground etc.

Even if they sell them for €100k each, they would still walk away with a hefty return. I would be of the 'opinion' that this is already in train and many of these houses are about to re-enter the market in their thousands over the next 3 to 18 months as they want out sooner rather than later. Outside the REITS, they have little to no interest in long-term micro-management.

Bass Reeves

Dept of finance is revising it predictions on COVID as finances not as hard hit as expected
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

I may have misinterpreted them, but I haven't avoided these fundamentals. I have commented on all these before:

Big increase in household savings. - could be a factor to support prices, particularly if there is a fear of inflation. Having said that there is some evidence that proportion of cash buyers is falling, and proportion of FTBers is rising.

Population growth - will not make the slightest bit of difference in the next two years.

WFH - it may affect negatively Dublin City Center, and other expensive Dublin areas, it may increase price for other areas - I have been consistent on this. It will hit expensive areas of Dublin hardest, as you point out, and thus bring down the overall average.

Well I provided some facts for the positive side on demand side, as you asked.
If we won't like to see as an impact on demand side, that's another story. Everyone has its on believes, at least I'm consistent, by seeing positive and negative inputs towards property price.

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Those teenagers are living at home way longer than most other countries in the EU, after highschool are you mad?

Obviously never heard of boomerang kids

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:

:rolleyes:indeed

brisan

three putt wrote: »

The data available to date shows a (surprisingly) resilient housing market, this is a fact, e.g:

https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-housingmarketjuly2020

While I dont agree or disagree I would take anything Ronan Lyons says in an article paid for by and published on a property website with a large pinch of salt
Much the same as I disregard any article on the property market in the Irish Times who own myHome .ie

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

When I did 1 year in DIT, probably half of Irish guys were renting in Dublin. Meaning requiring additional living space.

Now all the classes are online in their parents box room

Marius34

brisan wrote: »

Now all the classes are online in their parents box room

This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.

brisan

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now?

Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.

I reckon a roof ,4 walls ,a kitchen and a functioning toilet will do for many at this stage

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.

True, But we will also have an extra couple of thousand purpose built student beds in Dublin. The international students aren't coming back next year either as they would have to make that decision by this January and we will still be in lockdown at that time.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

I reckon a roof ,4 walls ,a kitchen and a functioning toilet will do for many at this stage

itll do for some sure, im referring to the cohort that some posters believe of people in secure well paying jobs that will leave the cities and head to the sanctuary of the countryside.

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.

Or it could become the new normal
Days of 120 first year nursing students in a lecture room in trinity with 30-40 sitting on steps may be a thing of the past.
My daughter studied nursing in Trinity ,that's how I know

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

well what do you define as the house buying demographic?

average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.

Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.

To put that into perspective, that's enough new builds to house:

139,192 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 2 persons; or

208,788 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 3 persons (e.g. couple and one child.

It also assumes no probate sales and none of the excess supply of vacant homes re-entered the market in that time period.

I think people seriously underestimate how many residential units we actually have built or have re-entered supply over the past 4 years.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

True, But we will also have an extra couple of thousand purpose built student beds in Dublin. The international students aren't coming back next year either as they would have to make that decision by this January and we will still be in lockdown at that time.

My dads cousin built a really nice multi room thing out the back garden, its much to nice to call a shed but yeah cost 40k all in.

He got students in for 6 months then the pandemic hit and hes struggling to get students, hes now onto a builder about converting it into a home bar lol

Shoden

It's very frustrating looking to buy in Cork as a single applicant. I'm in the public sector earning 58,000 with top class job security, 10% deposit saved and can still afford sweet FA (excluding run down places) within a half hour of the city. The second hand market under 225k in Cork is poor and the new property market under 250k (including enhanced htb) is very very limited unless you're willing to live a good distance (30 minutes plus) away from friends and family.

I've no point really other than bemoaning the affordability gap around Cork.

brisan

Shoden wrote: »

It's very frustrating looking to buy in Cork as a single applicant. I'm in the public sector earning 58,000 with top class job security, 10% deposit saved and can still afford sweet FA (excluding run down places) within a half hour of the city. The second hand market under 225k in Cork is poor and the new property market under 250k (including enhanced htb) is very very limited unless you're willing to live a good distance (30 minutes plus) away from friends and family.

I've no point really other than bemoaning the affordability gap around Cork.

It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home
That's why 1 bed apartments became popular
Obviously you do not wish to go that route

Shoden

brisan wrote: »

It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home
That's why 1 bed apartments became popular
Obviously you do not wish to go that route

As I understand it: it's harder to get mortgages on them and the resaleability is poor.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.

To put that into perspective, that's enough new builds to house:

139,192 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 2 persons; or

208,788 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 3 persons (e.g. couple and one child.

It also assumes no probate sales and none of the excess supply of vacant homes re-entered the market in that time period.

I think people seriously underestimate how many residential units we actually have built or have re-entered supply over the past 4 years.

So what happened with housing people in residential properties, if we built more than there is demands, has vacancy increased?

MacronvFrugals

brisan wrote: »

It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home
That's why 1 bed apartments became popular
Obviously you do not wish to go that route

I'd be in a very similar situation to shoden, my da always does be like whatever you do dont buy a 1 bed apartment.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

So what happened with housing people in residential properties, if we built more than there is demands, has vacancy increased?

That's where I become very confused as the current supply/demand issues sure as hell is not down to a lack of supply.

Bubbaclaus

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Dept of finance is revising it predictions on COVID as finances not as hard hit as expected
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections

Very positive data. Especially considering the 2021 figures assume no trade deal.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.

you are comparing census data from 2016 to build data post that, and most of those built units in that period have already been sold one would assume.

three putt

brisan wrote: »

While I dont agree or disagree I would take anything Ronan Lyons says in an article paid for by and published on a property website with a large pinch of salt
Much the same as I disregard any article on the property market in the Irish Times who own myHome .ie

What source of data would you rely on for the Irish property market?
Using this trusted source, what does the data say about the sales prices in the Irish housing market for 2020?

landofthetree

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Very positive data. Especially considering the 2021 figures assume no trade deal.

But 13% of all jobs will be lost.
https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310965765395406859

Today's
@IRLDeptFinance
economic forecasts for #Budget2021 assume one in seven jobs will be lost this year = a 13.8% drop in employment.

For context, in the 12 months following the banking crash, employment in Ireland contracted by 9%.