Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Marius34 wrote: »

Because you need to count people not for selected age group, but everyone, and not to forget obsolescence, houses does not stay livable forever.

I think the figure put out for obsolescence is c. 8,000 per year and I think many commentators don't truly believe that figure. But say it's correct, that's 40,000 homes every five years. We had 180,000 vacant livable homes in Census 2016 or 90,000 vacant livable homes in the GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020. So, I don't think obsolescence is as big a factor as some make it out to be.

PropQueries wrote: »

That's where I become very confused as the current supply/demand issues sure as hell is not down to a lack of supply.

Because you need to count people not for selected age group, but everyone, and not to forget obsolescence, houses does not stay livable forever.

Hubertj

landofthetree wrote: »

But 13% of all jobs will be lost.
https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310965765395406859

so while they are saying the economic impact wont be as bad on 1 hand a lot of people will be unemployed. Its like a less severe kick in the nuts... it still hurts a lot

landofthetree

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Very positive data. Especially considering the 2021 figures assume no trade deal.

But 13% of all jobs will be lost.
https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310965765395406859

Today's
@IRLDeptFinance
economic forecasts for #Budget2021 assume one in seven jobs will be lost this year = a 13.8% drop in employment.

For context, in the 12 months following the banking crash, employment in Ireland contracted by 9%.

three putt

brisan wrote: »

While I dont agree or disagree I would take anything Ronan Lyons says in an article paid for by and published on a property website with a large pinch of salt
Much the same as I disregard any article on the property market in the Irish Times who own myHome .ie

What source of data would you rely on for the Irish property market?
Using this trusted source, what does the data say about the sales prices in the Irish housing market for 2020?

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.

you are comparing census data from 2016 to build data post that, and most of those built units in that period have already been sold one would assume.

Bubbaclaus

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Dept of finance is revising it predictions on COVID as finances not as hard hit as expected
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections

Very positive data. Especially considering the 2021 figures assume no trade deal.

Marius34 wrote: »

So what happened with housing people in residential properties, if we built more than there is demands, has vacancy increased?

That's where I become very confused as the current supply/demand issues sure as hell is not down to a lack of supply.

MacronvFrugals

brisan wrote: »

It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home
That's why 1 bed apartments became popular
Obviously you do not wish to go that route

I'd be in a very similar situation to shoden, my da always does be like whatever you do dont buy a 1 bed apartment.

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.

To put that into perspective, that's enough new builds to house:

139,192 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 2 persons; or

208,788 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 3 persons (e.g. couple and one child.

It also assumes no probate sales and none of the excess supply of vacant homes re-entered the market in that time period.

I think people seriously underestimate how many residential units we actually have built or have re-entered supply over the past 4 years.

So what happened with housing people in residential properties, if we built more than there is demands, has vacancy increased?

Shoden

brisan wrote: »

It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home
That's why 1 bed apartments became popular
Obviously you do not wish to go that route

As I understand it: it's harder to get mortgages on them and the resaleability is poor.

Shoden wrote: »

It's very frustrating looking to buy in Cork as a single applicant. I'm in the public sector earning 58,000 with top class job security, 10% deposit saved and can still afford sweet FA (excluding run down places) within a half hour of the city. The second hand market under 225k in Cork is poor and the new property market under 250k (including enhanced htb) is very very limited unless you're willing to live a good distance (30 minutes plus) away from friends and family.

I've no point really other than bemoaning the affordability gap around Cork.

It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home
That's why 1 bed apartments became popular
Obviously you do not wish to go that route

Shoden

It's very frustrating looking to buy in Cork as a single applicant. I'm in the public sector earning 58,000 with top class job security, 10% deposit saved and can still afford sweet FA (excluding run down places) within a half hour of the city. The second hand market under 225k in Cork is poor and the new property market under 250k (including enhanced htb) is very very limited unless you're willing to live a good distance (30 minutes plus) away from friends and family.

I've no point really other than bemoaning the affordability gap around Cork.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

True, But we will also have an extra couple of thousand purpose built student beds in Dublin. The international students aren't coming back next year either as they would have to make that decision by this January and we will still be in lockdown at that time.

My dads cousin built a really nice multi room thing out the back garden, its much to nice to call a shed but yeah cost 40k all in.

He got students in for 6 months then the pandemic hit and hes struggling to get students, hes now onto a builder about converting it into a home bar lol

Cyrus wrote: »

well what do you define as the house buying demographic?

average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.

Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.

To put that into perspective, that's enough new builds to house:

139,192 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 2 persons; or

208,788 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 3 persons (e.g. couple and one child.

It also assumes no probate sales and none of the excess supply of vacant homes re-entered the market in that time period.

I think people seriously underestimate how many residential units we actually have built or have re-entered supply over the past 4 years.

Marius34 wrote: »

This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.

Or it could become the new normal
Days of 120 first year nursing students in a lecture room in trinity with 30-40 sitting on steps may be a thing of the past.
My daughter studied nursing in Trinity ,that's how I know

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

I reckon a roof ,4 walls ,a kitchen and a functioning toilet will do for many at this stage

itll do for some sure, im referring to the cohort that some posters believe of people in secure well paying jobs that will leave the cities and head to the sanctuary of the countryside.

Marius34 wrote: »

This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.

True, But we will also have an extra couple of thousand purpose built student beds in Dublin. The international students aren't coming back next year either as they would have to make that decision by this January and we will still be in lockdown at that time.

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now?

Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.

I reckon a roof ,4 walls ,a kitchen and a functioning toilet will do for many at this stage

brisan wrote: »

Now all the classes are online in their parents box room

This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.

Marius34 wrote: »

When I did 1 year in DIT, probably half of Irish guys were renting in Dublin. Meaning requiring additional living space.

Now all the classes are online in their parents box room

three putt wrote: »

The data available to date shows a (surprisingly) resilient housing market, this is a fact, e.g:

https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-housingmarketjuly2020

While I dont agree or disagree I would take anything Ronan Lyons says in an article paid for by and published on a property website with a large pinch of salt
Much the same as I disregard any article on the property market in the Irish Times who own myHome .ie

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:

:rolleyes:indeed

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Those teenagers are living at home way longer than most other countries in the EU, after highschool are you mad?

Obviously never heard of boomerang kids

schmittel wrote: »

I may have misinterpreted them, but I haven't avoided these fundamentals. I have commented on all these before:

Big increase in household savings. - could be a factor to support prices, particularly if there is a fear of inflation. Having said that there is some evidence that proportion of cash buyers is falling, and proportion of FTBers is rising.

Population growth - will not make the slightest bit of difference in the next two years.

WFH - it may affect negatively Dublin City Center, and other expensive Dublin areas, it may increase price for other areas - I have been consistent on this. It will hit expensive areas of Dublin hardest, as you point out, and thus bring down the overall average.

Well I provided some facts for the positive side on demand side, as you asked.
If we won't like to see as an impact on demand side, that's another story. Everyone has its on believes, at least I'm consistent, by seeing positive and negative inputs towards property price.

Bass Reeves

Dept of finance is revising it predictions on COVID as finances not as hard hit as expected
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections

thefridge2006 wrote: »

only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:

I think the majority of potential buyers would be 'happy enough', but not 'delighted' with just four walls and a roof to call their own. Many younger buyers today still buy and add to their house bit by bit over the years and I think the narrative put out that they all want a home with the latest kit and are willing to pay a significant premium for such housing is mostly wrong.

In relation to the ghost estates, which I think we can all agree that they are now mostly owned by the so-called vulture funds (€200 billion in property and business loans purchased by them between 2012 and 2016) can be brought to market very quickly if they see the demand.

They would have bought them for a fraction of even the low prices advertised during 2012 and 2013. For example, if they have ten houses in an estate down the country, for €10k each, they could put in new heating, windows, doors and a general refurbishment and have them on the market within 8 weeks. There's generally no planning permission needed, no breaking ground etc.

Even if they sell them for €100k each, they would still walk away with a hefty return. I would be of the 'opinion' that this is already in train and many of these houses are about to re-enter the market in their thousands over the next 3 to 18 months as they want out sooner rather than later. Outside the REITS, they have little to no interest in long-term micro-management.

lalababa wrote: »

I find the rental market for house shares in Cork City very strange. For the last 10+ years when they were like hens teeth to find around start of college, maybe 30 places on Daft. Now there's like 280, and yet you have people asking last year's prices and in some cases more! Fair enough some are a bit cheaper than normal, but the overall picture is very weird.

Head in the sand stuff
I got X last year and I want X this year
College rental are gone for the year