Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries · 29-09-2020 2:10pm

Cyrus wrote: »

the stock of good quality homes rurally isnt great, and people that are seeking to move out of cities will have a big wish list of what they want if they are moving out. A vacant house in a ghost estate isnt going to cut the mustard.

for someone who professes not to have an opinion one way or the other you come down on large price decreases 100% of the time.

I'm only going by what the data is telling me. I will gladly change my opinion in the opposite direction very very quickly if the data shows otherwise.

Hubertj · 29-09-2020 2:13pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm only going by what the data is telling me. I will gladly change my opinion in the opposite direction very very quickly if the data shows otherwise.

your problem is you mix fact with fiction a lot. And mix in some lies.

Prices will obviously fall but you feel the need to make up "facts" to support your narrative and constantly post the same "facts" over and over and over again.

Cyrus · 29-09-2020 2:20pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm only going by what the data is telling me. I will gladly change my opinion in the opposite direction very very quickly if the data shows otherwise.

you ignore the data that tells you one thing and repeat stuff that supports your position ad nauseum across a couple of forums.

PropQueries · 29-09-2020 2:22pm

Hubertj wrote: »

your problem is you mix fact with fiction a lot. And mix in some lies.

Prices will obviously fall but you feel the need to make up "facts" to support your narrative and constantly post the same "facts" over and over and over again.

I believe I've backed up my facts from legitimate and reliable sources. I also think you know I have been scolded on several occasions for reposting the sources to my data from the Central Bank, CSO etc. when making a point. Just let me know of the facts I made that you believe are wrong and I will gladly re-post the links to the relevant sources again.

hometruths · 29-09-2020 2:25pm

Hubertj wrote: »

your problem is you mix fact with fiction a lot. And mix in some lies.

Source?

Marius34 · 29-09-2020 2:26pm

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to a "big increase in household savings", I would presume the majority of people who would be buying are already renting so if they buy, that will just free up their exiting rented home into the market once they buy and move out so I don't believe any increases in household savings should have a significant impact on net housing demand going forward.

In relation to "population growth" supporting demand etc. the population of 0-34 year olds in Ireland actually declined by 72,000 between 2011 and 2016 so I don't see where the demand will come from without continued mass immigration.

According to the Central Bank last December: "The paper finds that around 34,000 dwellings would be required per year until the end of the next decade assuming unchanged household formation rates. This scenario is based on net inward migration of 30,000 per annum, a figure in line with the levels of inward migration observed in 2017 and 2018. Assuming a lower level of net inward migration of 10,000 per annum, annual average housing demand is estimated at around 26,500 per annum out to 2030."

I think we can reliably predict that the projected levels of net migration of c. 30,000 (that's the amount of immigration exceeding emigration each year) in the Central Bank report above won't be anywhere near this higher figure for many years to come and we're still continuing to build plenty of homes. We also had c.90,000 vacant livable homes in Ireland pre-covid as per the GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020. That's three years housing supply right there even at the higher projections for housing demand.

Never mind all those student accommodation units (about an extra 15,000 bed spaces built or already now under construction in Dublin over the past few years) that will need people to fill them over the next two years as the international students aren't coming back next year either as they would have to decide to come here from next January and we will still be in lockdown at that stage. The Point Campus in Dublin has already requested permission to convert 600 of their units to residential permanently.

And, we're still expected to have house completions hit 18,000 this year despite the covid restrictions: Irish Times link here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/house-completions-to-hit-18-000-despite-construction-shutdown-1.4356648

1) The fact that savings are growing across all sectors for potential buyers. You can find many reasons why it has no impact, but it's just a believes.

2) Population is growing even excluding migration. I can equally say that we have now higher number of teenagers than in 2011, and big portion of them will be leaving their parents home after highschool. There is no much point to look at this, its enough to check if naturally population is growing or going down.

PropQueries · 29-09-2020 2:28pm

Marius34 wrote: »

1) The fact that savings are growing across all sectors for potential buyers. You can find many reasons why it has no impact, but it's just a believes.

2) Population is growing even excluding migration. I can equally say that we have now higher number of teenagers than in 2011, and big portion of them will be leaving their parents home after highschool. There is no much point to look at this, its enough to check if naturally population is growing or going down.

Not in the house buying demographic.

Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
35 - 64 Years: +143,932
65 - 85+ Years: +102,174

MacronvFrugals · 29-09-2020 2:29pm

Marius34 wrote: »

1) The fact that savings are growing across all sectors for potential buyers. You can find many reasons why it has no impact, but it's just a believes.

2) Population is growing even excluding migration. I can equally say that we have now higher number of teenagers than in 2011, and big portion of them will be leaving their parents home after highschool. There is no much point to look at this, its enough to check if naturally population is growing or going down.

Those teenagers are living at home way longer than most other countries in the EU, after highschool are you mad?

Hubertj · 29-09-2020 2:30pm

schmittel wrote: »

Source?

Not going to waste my time going back to copy and paste but there were specific statements around google and what they do or don’t do in Ireland that were incorrect. It was only when the poster was pulled up that it became an “opinion”.

three putt · 29-09-2020 2:31pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm only going by what the data is telling me. I will gladly change my opinion in the opposite direction very very quickly if the data shows otherwise.

The data available to date shows a (surprisingly) resilient housing market, this is a fact, e.g:

https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-housingmarketjuly2020

Cyrus · 29-09-2020 2:32pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Not in the house buying demographic.

Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
35 - 64 Years: +143,932
65 - 85+ Years: +102,174

well what do you define as the house buying demographic?

average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.

29-09-2020 2:32pm

Marius34 wrote: »

1) The fact that savings are growing across all sectors for potential buyers...........

No restaurateurs or publicans were thinking of buying?

fliball123 · 29-09-2020 2:39pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm only going by what the data is telling me. I will gladly change my opinion in the opposite direction very very quickly if the data shows otherwise.

data currently showing no price drops YET well according to CSO and PPR

Marius34 · 29-09-2020 2:41pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Those teenagers are living at home way longer than most other countries in the EU, after highschool are you mad?

When I did 1 year in DIT, probably half of Irish guys were renting in Dublin. Meaning requiring additional living space.

fliball123 · 29-09-2020 2:42pm

Cyrus wrote: »

well what do you define as the house buying demographic?

average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.

and I would hazard a guess more people in their 30s will be buying usually and I may be generalizing but in your 20s your more caught up having fun and a social life as apposed to saving and grinding for a mortgage

hometruths · 29-09-2020 2:42pm

Hubertj wrote: »

Not going to waste my time going back to copy and paste but there were specific statements around google and what they do or don’t do in Ireland that were incorrect. It was only when the poster was pulled up that it became an “opinion”.

I remember the google stuff, but didn't follow it too closely, as I know very little about the makeup of googles workforce.

Personally I think, whether you agree with his opinions or not, PropQueries is pretty consistent about backing up his posts with links to sources that these opinions are based on.

I'd say he stands out more than most for this very reason.

Certainly my impression of his posting history is more often than not somebody will call him out on something, and he'll subsequently provide a link. (or as Cyrus has mentioned post the same links repeatedly to hammer the point home!)

MacronvFrugals · 29-09-2020 2:45pm

Marius34 wrote: »

When I did 1 year in DIT, probably half of Irish guys were renting in Dublin. Meaning requiring additional living space.

Thats anecdotal figures suggest something different

https://www.thejournal.ie/factfind-under-living-with-parents-4981426-Feb2020/

Marius34 · 29-09-2020 2:46pm

Augeo wrote: »

No restaurateurs or publicans were thinking of buying?

I wasn't not dividing in that small categories. I was more looking at the bigger groups FTB, STB, cash buyers.

JimmyVik · 29-09-2020 2:54pm

Cyrus wrote: »

well what do you define as the house buying demographic?

average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.

And probably very few 0 - 30 year olds buying houses either

Potatoeman · 29-09-2020 2:56pm

4700 mortgages more than 10 years in arrears. If you are more than 10 years in arrears it’s not the bank footing the bill it’s other mortgage holders.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/mortgage-arrears-mean-thousands-of-families-face-losing-their-houses-39571224.html

thefridge2006 · 29-09-2020 2:56pm

Paddigol wrote: »

He looks fairly seasoned to me.

I'm not looking to start an internet debate over who is more seasoned than who. If I wanted 100% uninformed opinion on the property market I could ask anyone of my social circle - we all have views, just most are based on little other than newspaper headlines, internal prejudices, fears and hopes.

I was just looking to gauge where people who have a specific (albeit not necessarily professional) interest in the property market, and who have followed the debate on this thread over the past 6 months, think the market is heading in the next year.

In March in appeared that there were a lot of people stridently of the view that we were heading for immediate and sharp drops in prices. A few people disagreed but their reasons were often dismissed. We haven't experienced the predicted drop, and I'm just wondering how people's views have shifted in the intervening period (if at all).

Looks fairly seasoned?? or is it just because he shares the same view as you? a poster with a few hundred posts wouldn't be be classed as a seasoned poster IMO.

thefridge2006 · 29-09-2020 2:57pm

Cyrus wrote: »

in the context of this thread and quality of posting, i would suggest that he is.

I disagree, just another one that shares your views.

Marius34 · 29-09-2020 2:59pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Thats anecdotal figures suggest something different

https://www.thejournal.ie/factfind-under-living-with-parents-4981426-Feb2020/

Because those statistics includes all groups of people, it could 20-30% of people after High schools leaves parent homes, that's already has significance. I don't want to dig in it, as I don't see that much sense with unknown factors to look at each particular age group.

Cyrus · 29-09-2020 3:00pm

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I disagree, just another one that shares your views.

why what are my views?

thefridge2006 · 29-09-2020 3:06pm

lalababa wrote: »

I find the rental market for house shares in Cork City very strange. For the last 10+ years when they were like hens teeth to find around start of college, maybe 30 places on Daft. Now there's like 280, and yet you have people asking last year's prices and in some cases more! Fair enough some are a bit cheaper than normal, but the overall picture is very weird.

This is what happens.... then they lower the price in a bid to get someone, then lower price again, then again, then again and again until it affordable and makes sense. everyone out there offering a service wants to get the best deal they possible can and would be kicking themselves if they thought they undervalued and left potential cash on the table.

thefridge2006 · 29-09-2020 3:11pm

Marius34 wrote: »

Apart from tight supplies side reasons, some of other fundamental reasons for demands:
Big increase in household savings.
Population growth. (you may think otherwise, but it's not the fact)
WFH - which means there is more needs of Residential space (like office room, etc). While it may affect negatively Dublin City Center, and other expensive Dublin areas, it may increase price for other areas.

I think I know what lists make more sense.... and it's not yours

MacronvFrugals · 29-09-2020 3:12pm

fliball123 wrote: »

and I would hazard a guess more people in their 30s will be buying usually and I may be generalizing but in your 20s your more caught up having fun and a social life as apposed to saving and grinding for a mortgage

I think more are thinking f that being caught in the rental market, many of my friends (23-28) have started getting the deposit together and some have bought.

fliball123 · 29-09-2020 3:14pm

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I think more are thinking f that being caught in the rental market, many of my friends (23-28) have started getting the deposit together and some have bought.

Yeah you could be right I would am just going on myself when I was in my early 20s I had absolutely no plan for a mortgage once I hit 25 I started saving like hell

PropQueries · 29-09-2020 3:18pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

And probably very few 0 - 30 year olds buying houses either

True. But it doesn't bode well for the demand for homes in the medium to long term. If net migration doesn't return to the same numbers as in 2017 and 2018, the number of homes entering probate each year will start to get closer and closer to the number of people interested in buying or renting a home. Not good if you're a potential investor and thinking of buying today.

thefridge2006 · 29-09-2020 3:19pm

Cyrus wrote: »

the stock of good quality homes rurally isnt great, and people that are seeking to move out of cities will have a big wish list of what they want if they are moving out. A vacant house in a ghost estate isnt going to cut the mustard.

for someone who professes not to have an opinion one way or the other you come down on large price decreases 100% of the time.

Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now?

Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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