schmittel wrote: » I may have misinterpreted them, but I haven't avoided these fundamentals. I have commented on all these before:Big increase in household savings. - could be a factor to support prices, particularly if there is a fear of inflation. Having said that there is some evidence that proportion of cash buyers is falling, and proportion of FTBers is rising.Population growth - will not make the slightest bit of difference in the next two years.WFH - it may affect negatively Dublin City Center, and other expensive Dublin areas, it may increase price for other areas - I have been consistent on this. It will hit expensive areas of Dublin hardest, as you point out, and thus bring down the overall average.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » Those teenagers are living at home way longer than most other countries in the EU, after highschool are you mad?
thefridge2006 wrote: » only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:
three putt wrote: » The data available to date shows a (surprisingly) resilient housing market, this is a fact, e.g:https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-housingmarketjuly2020
Marius34 wrote: » When I did 1 year in DIT, probably half of Irish guys were renting in Dublin. Meaning requiring additional living space.
brisan wrote: » Now all the classes are online in their parents box room
thefridge2006 wrote: » Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now? Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.
Marius34 wrote: » This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.
brisan wrote: » I reckon a roof ,4 walls ,a kitchen and a functioning toilet will do for many at this stage
Cyrus wrote: » well what do you define as the house buying demographic? average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.
PropQueries wrote: » True, But we will also have an extra couple of thousand purpose built student beds in Dublin. The international students aren't coming back next year either as they would have to make that decision by this January and we will still be in lockdown at that time.
Shoden wrote: » It's very frustrating looking to buy in Cork as a single applicant. I'm in the public sector earning 58,000 with top class job security, 10% deposit saved and can still afford sweet FA (excluding run down places) within a half hour of the city. The second hand market under 225k in Cork is poor and the new property market under 250k (including enhanced htb) is very very limited unless you're willing to live a good distance (30 minutes plus) away from friends and family. I've no point really other than bemoaning the affordability gap around Cork.
brisan wrote: » It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home That's why 1 bed apartments became popular Obviously you do not wish to go that route
PropQueries wrote: » Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic. To put that into perspective, that's enough new builds to house: 139,192 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 2 persons; or 208,788 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 3 persons (e.g. couple and one child. It also assumes no probate sales and none of the excess supply of vacant homes re-entered the market in that time period. I think people seriously underestimate how many residential units we actually have built or have re-entered supply over the past 4 years.
Marius34 wrote: » So what happened with housing people in residential properties, if we built more than there is demands, has vacancy increased?
Bass Reeves wrote: » Dept of finance is revising it predictions on COVID as finances not as hard hit as expectedhttps://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections
PropQueries wrote: » Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.
brisan wrote: » While I dont agree or disagree I would take anything Ronan Lyons says in an article paid for by and published on a property website with a large pinch of salt Much the same as I disregard any article on the property market in the Irish Times who own myHome .ie
Bubbaclaus wrote: » Very positive data. Especially considering the 2021 figures assume no trade deal.
Today's@IRLDeptFinance economic forecasts for #Budget2021 assume one in seven jobs will be lost this year = a 13.8% drop in employment. For context, in the 12 months following the banking crash, employment in Ireland contracted by 9%.
landofthetree wrote: » But 13% of all jobs will be lost.https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310965765395406859
PropQueries wrote: » That's where I become very confused as the current supply/demand issues sure as hell is not down to a lack of supply.
Marius34 wrote: » Because you need to count people not for selected age group, but everyone, and not to forget obsolescence, houses does not stay livable forever.
PropQueries wrote: » I think the figure put out for obsolescence is c. 8,000 per year and I think many commentators don't truly believe that figure. But say it's correct, that's 40,000 homes every five years. We had 180,000 vacant livable homes in Census 2016 or 90,000 vacant livable homes in the GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020. So, I don't think obsolescence is as big a factor as some make it out to be.
The_Conductor wrote: » The census figures for the number of vacant livable properties- was shown to be patently false. Fingal Co. Co., Dublin City Council and Galway City Council- got a list of all the properties listed as vacant by CSO enumerators- and found fewer than 1-in-10 of them were actually vacant. The vast majority were occupied by non-nationals who had refused to acknowledge their presence when someone with a clipboard knocked on their door.......... I think (from memory) the total number of properties found to be vacant in a 100% survey by Dublin city council, at the time, was 382 units. The CSO did put out a statement after the fact- and there were meetings on how to minimise the likelihood of a similar type data issue occuring in future polls. On a related note- the census was quietly postponed for a year during Covid- so its going to be a year late.
