Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

ACitizenErased

The way the CMO is speaking we're not accelerating any phases

Plumbthedepths

Banner fights back wrote: »

While today is a huge and most welcome milestone with thankfully no further fatalities from yesterday, it's hard not to get a bit emotional for the 1,606 families loved ones and wide circle of friends who have lost their mother, father, son, daughter, granny, grandad, extended family member, a close friend the list goes on.

This horrible disease has affected so many people and as I type this there are people and families who are still in grave danger from this disease. It's for that I feel that complacency from both people and health authorities will be so counter productive. When I hear kite flying ministers suggesting and halving of the social distance I shutter to hear that.

The fight to defeat covid-19 and quench this huge ferno goes on.

You 'shutter' with fear. Fear not WHO and the ECDC seem ok with the 1m distance also. A 2m distance tbh is not viable for any society. Much of Europe is opening up but recording less infections and deaths.

branie2

Hopefully the number of cases will be down again soon

Arghus

CRINGE

is_that_so

landofthetree wrote: »

I don't see why phases can't be moved forward.

At the end of the day if things are to get back to normal personal responsibility will be the only way to keep things open

Phase 1 will be completed in its entirety. CMO is now batting away questions and deferring more to other possible advice. As the numbers slide downwards there will a challenge to justifying these daily briefings. He knows that they will just keep asking about opening up faster!

Eod100

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The way the CMO is speaking we're not accelerating any phases

I can understand having a buffer though. I'd like things to be eased as quickly as possible if safe to do so but think has to be monitored after to make sure there's no spike.

We will have to live with it over next few months if not years but no harm easing with caution I think.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

PmMeUrDogs wrote: »

100%. I was as scared of the virus as anyone when it was at its worst but Jesus Christ, let's enjoy a bit of positivity. It's a sign things are slowly but surely returning to normality and while we won't be there for a while, it's about bloody time we had some good news without people saying "oh but."



Yes, tomorrow's tally may well be higher. However, we haven't had a day of no deaths for two months, so one would hope that tomorrow's tally, while higher, will be less than last Tuesday's tally. Which would be a massive positive.

Exactly. It’s the downward trend that is important and the first day in a long time without deaths is something to celebrate, even if it’s the last for a while.

Onesea

When exactly do they plan to take a bit of risk and get things running as normal, I almost feel fg are planning to use the payment scheme as a Barton to smack the public with post corona.

Great to see no new deaths, but you have to wonder with the location of the current cases what is the hold up?


On another note,hiw many people die per day in the roi?

boardise

landofthetree wrote: »

I don't see why phases can't be moved forward.

At the end of the day if things are to get back to normal personal responsibility will be the only way to keep things open

I feel pretty sure there will be some telescoping of the phases with understandable pressure building up from all quarters.
I can see though why the authorities chose to be cautious in their initial calculations. There was need for some latitude -and it's far better to be going in this direction than the opposite.
The general population have been highly compliant -patience and common sense will have won the day.

ACitizenErased

~75 out of the 300 cases since Thursday have been related the residential facilities, the rest are outside cases.

Arghus

is_that_so wrote: »

Phase 1 will be completed in its entirety. CMO is now batting away questions and deferring more to other possible advice. As the numbers slide downwards there will a challenge to justifying these daily briefings. He knows that they will just keep asking about opening up faster!

He's basically inferred that it will come down to other advice that the government will have to weigh up. "If the country was run solely by decisions on public health we'd have a very simple and straightforward job."

People don't seem to get it: The DOH and NPHET advise on public health and they are going to give recommendations based solely on public health.

Economics etc, etc aren't part of their remit. They are always going to be cautious in these matters - it's their job. It's up to others to think about public finances, public policy. They give advice and it's ultimately up to the government whether to follow it or not. They've set out their perspective and plans and now the question will be whether the government follows it or not.

Eod100

Interesting stats here. Thought it would be more 50/50 and if anything maybe more saying it was too slowly:

https://twitter.com/irishexaminer/status/1264968633211670529

shinzon

Onesea wrote: »

When exactly do they plan to take a bit of risk and get things running as normal, I almost feel fg are planning to use the payment scheme as a Barton to smack the public with post corona.

Great to see no new deaths, but you have to wonder with the location of the current cases what is the hold up?


On another note,hiw many people die per day in the roi?

Id rather they not accelerate anything it seems slow and steady is winning the race here, take the pain now and not have to slide back to where we were and come out of phase 5 knowing with a fair degree of certainty that we possibly wont have to do this again.

Opening up everything now just risks losing what weve gained like today with 0 deaths.

Shin

Onesea

Arghus wrote: »

He's basically inferred that it will come down to other advice that the government will have to weigh up. "If the country was run solely by decisions on public health we'd have a very simple and straightforward job."

People don't seem to get it: The DOH and NPHET advise on public health and they are going to give recommendations based solely on public health.

Economics etc, etc aren't part of their remit. They are always going to be cautious in these matters - it's their job. It's up to others to think about public finances, public policy. They give advice and it's ultimately up to the government whether to follow it or not. They've set out their perspective and plans and now the question will be whether the government follows it or not.

So you believe varadkar and his boys will take responsibility for decisions made. Or will it be the cmo, or both parties blaming each other if the worse happens. (which it won't)

Banner fights back

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

You 'shutter' with fear. Fear not WHO and the ECDC seem ok with the 1m distance also. A 2m distance tbh is not viable for any society. Much of Europe is opening up but recording less infections and deaths.

It should not be up to ministers to make up the health guidance rules IMO.

I do agree with you that the two metre rule is not viable for an extended period. But for now it would be premature to make changes in social distancing. Having seen some of the stuff on social media in the last few days, I fear that people's compliance of the 2m rule in public amenities like parks and beaches is beginning to wane.

But it's up to the health authorities and while they haven't got everything right, they certainly have steadied the covid 19 ship and for now the virus has been suppressed.

is_that_so

Arghus wrote: »

He's basically inferred that it will come down to other advice that the government will have to weigh up. "If the country was run solely by decisions on public health we'd have a very simple and straightforward job."

People don't seem to get it: The DOH and NPHET advise on public health and they are going to give recommendations based solely on public health.

Economics etc, etc aren't part of their remit. They are always going to be cautious in these matters - it's their job. It's up to others to think about public finances, public policy. They give advice and it's ultimately up to the government whether to follow it or not. They've set out their perspective and plans and now the question will be whether the government follows it or not.

It's a fullscale deferral to them at present. For Phase 1 they will continue to do that, beyond that other factors may be a bigger consideration.

Non solum non ambulabit

As David Higgins suggested a few weeks ago less older people are now contracting Covid and this would start feeding through to the death numbers.

Arghus

Onesea wrote: »

So you believe varadkar and his boys will take responsibility for decisions made. Or will it be the cmo, or both parties blaming each other if the worse happens. (which it won't)

If numbers continue to fall they'll have to accelerate the process - people won't accept waiting until August.

is_that_so

Onesea wrote: »

So you believe varadkar and his boys will take responsibility for decisions made. Or will it be the cmo, or both parties blaming each other if the worse happens. (which it won't)

Overall they have been the right decisions. I'm assuming here you have a list of all their failings!

Plumbthedepths

Onesea wrote: »

On another note,hiw many people die per day in the roi?

90-100.

Plumbthedepths

Banner fights back wrote: »

It should not be up to ministers to make up the health guidance rules IMO.

I do agree with you that the two metre rule is not viable for an extended period. But for now it would be premature to make changes in social distancing. Having seen some of the stuff on social media in the last few days, I fear that people's compliance of the 2m rule in public amenities like parks and beaches is beginning to wane.

But it's up to the health authorities and while they haven't got everything right, they certainly have steadied the covid 19 ship and for now the virus has been suppressed.

So you completely ignored the reference to WHO and the ECDC.

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The way the CMO is speaking we're not accelerating any phases

Thought he gave a little more hope than usual with regards to the social distance question. Didn't bat it away, was more of a lets see in a few weeks and stressing the bigger thing was the hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette

8-10

Arghus wrote: »

If numbers continue to fall they'll have to accelerate the process - people won't accept waiting until August.

I think the majority will follow along with the plan.

If they bring forward the hairdressers that'll satisfy a lot of people anyway!

Non solum non ambulabit

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

90-100.

That's a number that a lot people forget about each time 10+ deaths are announced each day. 90 other people are dying each day if other illnesses.

Arghus

is_that_so wrote: »

It's a fullscale deferral to them at present. For Phase 1 they will continue to do that, beyond that other factors may be a bigger consideration.

I have had no problem with them deferring to NPHET up until this point and I think the restrictions for phase 1 should remain in place until the phase is finished. Early days, we have to see what happens.

But, definitely if the rates of infection continue to drop we shouldn't wait longer than necessary. The political pressure on goverment to move quicker than what is laid out in the roadmap will become relentless - and eventually they'll listen to that. Sure they are already disagreeing amongst themselves in the cabinet. I don't for one second believe that if we have the infection clearly under control that the we'll be hanging on until August. Not a hope.

stephenjmcd

shinzon wrote: »

Id rather they not accelerate anything it seems slow and steady is winning the race here, take the pain now and not have to slide back to where we were and come out of phase 5 knowing with a fair degree of certainty that we possibly wont have to do this again.

Opening up everything now just risks losing what weve gained like today with 0 deaths.

Shin

Nobody is saying open everything up now. People are saying let's not drag this out this August, phase 1 is what it is, likewise with 2. 3&4 should be merged and 5 brought forward 3 weeks to where 4 was. That means mid July when we're back open.
I think that's acceptable, all well and good slow and steady but theres slow and then theres snails pace

Eod100

Arghus wrote: »

If numbers continue to fall they'll have to accelerate the process - people won't accept waiting until August.

Their market research seems to suggest they're getting the timing spot on. That could of course change over the next few months.

But I think people are conscious of all they have sacrificed the past few months so speeding up the restrictions by a few weeks at risk has to be balanced against risk that this could cause spikes in infection and/or having to put reintroduce restrictions.

MD1990

many outdoor events should be brought forward.

Could possibly just outdoor sections of pubs & Restaurants at the start of June in no strong rise in cases etc.
Outdoor transmission is low.

lbj666

People are forgetting that we have no indication of how this phase is going yet, transmissions during phase 1 would have only just started showing up in new case number . They wont have a big enough data set to get an R0 estimates for another 10 days or so. Ideally you want to keep the R0 below 1 throughout all the phases or have the base level of cases at a low enough number that an R0 of slightly great than 1 can be managed. The new cases averages are not at that low enough level yet. Remember we shut the schools at 29 new cases (granted it was on a fast upward trend then)

Hopefully with the meat factoring and nursing homes done now for testing we will see new case numbers drop.

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

Their market research seems to suggest they're getting the timing spot on. That could of course change over the next few months.

But I think people are conscious of all they have sacrificed the past few months so speeding up the restrictions by a few weeks at risk has to be balanced against risk that this could cause spikes in infection and/or having to put reintroduce restrictions.

Their market research shows that because theres constant soundbites trying to scare the sh1te out of people. Just look today that UCC professor on rte and newstalk, anyone who listens to that and then gets asked a question in one of the surveys is going to go with the conservative option.

If people are purely getting their information from RTE and not doing any research then they're going to go along with whatever their told.