Off Topic Thread 5.0

b.gud

Deleted User wrote: »

It's like if the Connacht team thread was a whole country.

ClanofLams

The more coverage Trump gets, the more unpopular he is. When they stopped the nightly press conferences, his approval rating went up few points.

The election will be a referendum on Trump, it doesn’t really matter what Biden does. There isn’t much upside to Biden doing extensive press.

thomond2006

Deleted User wrote: »

It's like if the Connacht team thread was a whole country.

How do I multiple-thank a post?

Zzippy

Deleted User wrote: »

It's like if the Connacht team thread was a whole country.

CatFromHue

Deleted User wrote: »

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he pulls out late in the race if a win is beyond his grasp, rather than facing defeat on the day.

I still think he didn't plan on winning it in 2016. I think he only did it for profile and so he could say the system was rigged against him. Only problem here is that he did go on to win it!

He can't say the system is rigged against him now and his profile has changed massively from what it was.

I don't see him pulling out.

mfceiling

The social distancing recommendation seems to have gone out the window.

I went for a cycle about 2 hours ago. Genuinely hundreds round the canal especially at Portobello. Nobody bothering to stay 2 metres from anyone else. Groups sitting on top of each other. As I came back that way, there were 3 garda vans and 2 squad cars trying to disperse everyone.
Mind you, I wonder have the medical community given any consideration to weed and 2 litre bottles of cider in the fight against Corona?

sydthebeat

mfceiling wrote: »

The social distancing recommendation seems to have gone out the window.

I went for a cycle about 2 hours ago. Genuinely hundreds round the canal especially at Portobello. Nobody bothering to stay 2 metres from anyone else. Groups sitting on top of each other. As I came back that way, there were 3 garda vans and 2 squad cars trying to disperse everyone.
Mind you, I wonder have the medical community given any consideration to weed and 2 litre bottles of cider in the fight against Corona?

same here... kids, teenagers and adults out and about today as if it were any other day. Groups of more than 4 teenagers definitely not social distancing.

it will be a big test on how well or otherwise we have been doing up to now.

i expect cases to rise of course, its inevitable, but hopefully not enough to warrant another lockdown

Neil3030

sydthebeat wrote: »

I've a couple of bets on Biden at 6/5

But not seeing trump move at all from 10/11 is slightly worrying considering ALL the embarrassing fcuk ups and disgraceful actions he's been responsible for over the last four years, and especially the last three months.

Trump is currently 43.5% popularity.

Looking at some recent incumbents who went up for re-election, and tracking their popularity at this stage in the game, i.e., 1200 days into their 1st (or only) term:

Carter 39.6% - not re-elected
Reagan 52.1% - re-elected
Daddy Bush 39.5% - not re-elected
Clinton 56.4% - re-elected
Baby Bush 45.4% - re-elected
Obama - 48.2% - re-elected

So Trump really couldn't be more on the knife-edge - nobody from this list who polled lower than him got re-elected, but everyone who polled higher than him got back in.

I like your bet though. Mine is on Trump to lose Texas.

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

Trump is currently 43.5% popularity.

Looking at some recent incumbents who went up for re-election, and tracking their popularity at this stage in the game, i.e., 1200 days into their 1st (or only) term:

Carter 39.6% - not re-elected
Reagan 52.1% - re-elected
Daddy Bush 39.5% - not re-elected
Clinton 56.4% - re-elected
Baby Bush 45.4% - re-elected
Obama - 48.2% - re-elected

So Trump really couldn't be more on the knife-edge - nobody from this list who polled lower than him got re-elected, but everyone who polled higher than him got back in.

I like your bet though. Mine is on Trump to lose Texas.

I don't think precedent will provide much insight into this election, it's completely unique from any previous election given the nature of the Trump presidency and the existence of the covid pandemic.

It's also not impossible that American democracy might actually fail by the end of the year. The country is being run by a criminal enterprise / oligarchy and there is no way they are leaving this in the hands of voters if they can avoid it.

If the election maintains some level of integrity then Trump needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pensylvania again. He is polling badly in all three as an incumbent and moderates in Michigan have very urgent reasons to vote against him currently. Florida is impossible to call at the moment but it's low covid outbreak probably helps Trump (if the figures are accurate).

The much bigger issue for Trump is that Arizona is trending away from him quite dramatically given he won big there in 2016. Virginia polling suggests that Biden has an almost record lead on Trump there. A lot of former campaign strategists for previous presidential races (both Dem and Rep) have been making the point that either the swings away from Trump in a place like Arizona are a blip or the polling there is more accurately reflecting wider voter dissatisfaction that isn't percolating into overall trends.

It's going to be an absurdly volatile race and anything could happen. Add in ongoing interference from Russia / China and I fear it's all going to get extremely messy by November.

troyzer

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think precedent will provide much insight into this election, it's completely unique from any previous election given the nature of the Trump presidency and the existence of the covid pandemic.

It's also not impossible that American democracy might actually fail by the end of the year. The country is being run by a criminal enterprise / oligarchy and there is no way they are leaving this in the hands of voters if they can avoid it.

If the election maintains some level of integrity then Trump needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pensylvania again. He is polling badly in all three as an incumbent and moderates in Michigan have very urgent reasons to vote against him currently. Florida is impossible to call at the moment but it's low covid outbreak probably helps Trump (if the figures are accurate).

The much bigger issue for Trump is that Arizona is trending away from him quite dramatically given he won big there in 2016. Virginia polling suggests that Biden has an almost record lead on Trump there. A lot of former campaign strategists for previous presidential races (both Dem and Rep) have been making the point that either the swings away from Trump in a place like Arizona are a blip or the polling there is more accurately reflecting wider voter dissatisfaction that isn't percolating into overall trends.

It's going to be an absurdly volatile race and anything could happen. Add in ongoing interference from Russia / China and I fear it's all going to get extremely messy by November.

Arizona used to be solid red but it's been trending purple for years because of their vast, young hispanic population which leans heavily democratic. They're ahead of the same curve that will eventually put Texas back into play as well.

Bazzo

https://twitter.com/Nicoxw1/status/1263244665647697921?s=19

Another great moment from our favourite intellectual giant.

ClanofLams

troyzer wrote: »

Arizona used to be solid red but it's been trending purple for years because of their vast, young hispanic population which leans heavily democratic. They're ahead of the same curve that will eventually put Texas back into play as well.

It’s well populated suburbs (Phoenix in Arizona, Dallas etc in Texas) too where middle class folks were typically happy to vote for republicans like McCain but are now moving away from the Trumpified republicans, especially women.

That was major part of why republicans lost Arizona senate in 18 and why Beto O’Rourke was so competitive in Texas.

Neil3030

If Biden wants to win this election by a record number, he should nominate Dubbya as his VP. Guarantee to take Texas and a few other states, and also send a longer term message to all that both sides of the political divide need to unite in the fight against populism.

He has obviously committed to picking a woman, but the Dubbya play would have otherwise been a masterstroke.

Bazzo

Neil3030 wrote: »

If Biden wants to win this election by a record number, he should nominate Dubbya as his VP. Guarantee to take Texas and a few other states, and also send a longer term message to all that both sides of the political divide need to unite in the fight against populism.

He has obviously committed to picking a woman, but the Dubbya play would have otherwise been a masterstroke.

Considering many democrats consider W to have been a large catalyst in republicans rigging the system and eroding rights it would have sent a strong message alright.

swiwi_

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/may/22/hydroxychloroquine-trumps-covid-19-cure-increases-deaths-global-study-finds

Good ol’ Trump.

Thrashssacre

Gonna be an interesting race once the gloves come off on both sides, really could go either way at the moment.

irishbucsfan

This story about Biden telling yer man Charlamagne that if he doesn't know who to vote for then he "aint black" is at least giving me hope that this could well be by far the funniest election of modern times.

Biden's "Corn Pop" story is already the stuff of legend and we haven't even got started yet. Just like last election gave us Jeb Bush saying "Mac Book Pro Baby", Biden may not spend any years in the White House, but he could spend decades in the hearts and minds of people who love nonsense.

Amazing to see the current Cabinet of a country come out in force to shill for an advisor who has clearly and unquestionably committed a sacking offence.

Cummings must really know where each and every body is buried. An advisor getting full public cabinet support. Madness.

Zzippy

Deleted User wrote: »

Amazing to see the current Cabinet of a country come out in force to shill for an advisor who has clearly and unquestionably committed a sacking offence.

Cummings must really know where each and every body is buried. An advisor getting full public cabinet support. Madness.

He worked in Russia previously. Good bet he knows all the kompromat that Vlad has on the rest of them to keep them in line...

CatFromHue

I'm not sure if it's knowing everyone's secrets.

He didn't want to be a part of the Brexit campaign and had to be convinced it would be done his way if he came on board. Early on there was friction between him and some of the MPs over how it was being done and he was ready to walk. The MPs had to concede to keep him.

He seems to be very well thought of by the people he works for.

CatFromHue

CatFromHue wrote: »

I'm not sure if it's knowing everyone's secrets.

He didn't want to be a part of the Brexit campaign and had to be convinced it would be done his way if he came on board. Early on there was friction between him and some of the MPs over how it was being done and he was ready to walk. The MPs had to concede to keep him.

He seems to be very well thought of by the people he works for.

It's blowing up on them massively, this story isn't going away and Cummings has gotten the entire cabinet and attorney General to publicly back him.

Will be an interesting few days but what a complete shambles of a government.

dregin

Deleted User wrote: »

It's blowing up on them massively, this story isn't going away and Cummings has gotten the entire cabinet and attorney General to publicly back him.

Will be an interesting few days but what a complete shambles of a government.

Every time I hear anything about the tories being the tories, this (1:27 in) screams in my head except swap "tories" for "economy".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFqktHNMmkk

IT'S THE TORIES, STUPPIIIIIDDDDDD!!!!

That press briefing. My god.

Podge_irl

The strength and brazenness of the support for Cummings is absolutely staggering. Shameless is perhaps a too often used word in politics these days, but by christ does it apply here.

Dave_The_Sheep

Podge_irl wrote: »

Shameless is perhaps a too often used word in politics these days, but by christ does it apply here.

They don't give a **** about pretending anymore, because they know there are no consequences.

Clegg

Does anyone here read the Covid threads anymore? It's filled mostly with posters demanding an end to the lockdown. The odd time someone will chime in and say they think it's a good idea keep to the current level of restrictions. Then the cohort of posters will rail against the 'typical lockdown merchants' who shout down their sensible ideas of reopening etc. But the majority of guys in these threads want a reopening. Who's shouting them down exactly?

It feels very Brexit-y to me, right down to the language employed. Replace lockdown merchant with Remoaner.

Former Former

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

They don't give a **** about pretending anymore, because they know there are no consequences.

Yep. The British public has ignored or forgiven far worse from this government and they know full well that they'll just ride it out.

Squidgy Black

Clegg wrote: »

Does anyone here read the Covid threads anymore? It's filled mostly with posters demanding an end to the lockdown. The odd time someone will chime in and say they think it's a good idea keep to the current level of restrictions. Then the cohort of posters will rail against the 'typical lockdown merchants' who shout down their sensible ideas of reopening etc. But the majority of guys in these threads want a reopening. Who's shouting them down exactly?

It feels very Brexit-y to me, right down to the language employed. Replace lockdown merchant with Remoaner.

Rarely ever bother going anywhere near the likes of AH or the Current Affairs stuff on here in the last year or so. It's not worth your time reading half of the drivel that gets spouted out by the Gemmaroids etc.

sydthebeat

Clegg wrote: »

Does anyone here read the Covid threads anymore? It's filled mostly with posters demanding an end to the lockdown. The odd time someone will chime in and say they think it's a good idea keep to the current level of restrictions. Then the cohort of posters will rail against the 'typical lockdown merchants' who shout down their sensible ideas of reopening etc. But the majority of guys in these threads want a reopening. Who's shouting them down exactly?

It feels very Brexit-y to me, right down to the language employed. Replace lockdown merchant with Remoaner.

I gave up on the covid thread weeks ago.

Full of point scorers and fundamentalists.

No middle ground at all, where is exactly where the conversation should be

Clegg

A breaking story from the Mirror about Cummings breaching lockdown on a second occasion. Brilliant trap laid by them. Get the Tories to peddle their justifications for his transgression. Had to make sure someone was there to mind the kids etc. Then ram the second breach down their throats.

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1264262838622830601?s=19