has covid 19 been blown out of all proportion?

Horsebox9000

eviltwin wrote: »

I attended the funeral today of a family member who died from Covid. I have another family member ill with it who may not recover. Both otherwise in good health if the wrong side of 60. I don't believe this has been overestimated. Observe social distancing, wash your hands and protect yourself and others

Tell that to SF and the salt of the earth residents in Ringsend

hopalongcass

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I did that is just playing to gallery in my view. Domestic abuse, suicide, alcoholism etc. These are always going to be issues!

Both of these Doctors are working on the ground,testing people in their community,dealing with the issues you mentioned and claim that they have got substantially worse.

They are microbiologists and immunologists,experts in this field that is undeniable,these are real doctors that didn't forget their oath,brave men and i applaud them if you choose to close your eyes and ears that's your choice.

gormdubhgorm

abff wrote: »

The numbers are still scary, but can someone confirm whether or not this point came up later in the discussion.

I am at 28min it has not. He wants to get immunity and critises dirty gloves and masks. He does not need a mask because he understands immunology etc.
He also criticized the data calling them covid deaths and he is being pressured to write covid. To make it look worse than it is.

He seems to be unwilling to concede that covid accentuates underlying conditions. Example heavy tobacco smoker. It is clear to me the fella has an agenda. What I don't know.

Long_Wave

If Varadkar & co are thinking about extending the lockdown, I think there should be a plebiscite to let the people decide. Polling stations could be opened over 2 or 3 day period to avoid crowds.

gormdubhgorm

hopalongcass wrote: »

Both of these Doctors are working on the ground,testing people in their community,dealing with the issues you mentioned and claim that they have got substantially worse.

They are microbiologists and immunologists,experts in this field that is undeniable,these are real doctors that didn't forget their oath,brave men and i applaud them if you choose to close your eyes and ears that's your choice.

Some doctors can have agenda's as well you know even if they are experts in thier field.

I hear no mention of the Spanish flu and the different approaches

cooperguy

hopalongcass wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&t=418s


I'd appreciate if everyone would have a gander at this and this give their opinion,should be a bit of an eye opener for some.

It is interesting in fairness. I would question if you could take a sample of people who were tested because they were suspected of having COVID and then extrapolate to the rest of the population.

However, our plan is to start easing restrictions from May 5th and we are monitoring countries who have started easing restrictions before us. If we dont have a big increase in cases/deaths we can continue to ease restrictions and watch what happens in other countries as well.

It's almost without question (in my mind at least), that based on the data we had in March and the deaths and impact on health systems in countries that had this before us we had to lock down to prevent over run of our health system. As we learn more, have our health system better prepped and watch the easing of restrictions in other countries we can equally do the same.

Long_Wave wrote: »

If Varadkar & co are thinking about extending the lockdown, I think there should be a plebiscite to let the people decide. Polling stations could be opened over 2 or 3 day period to avoid crowds.

I personally think that's a terrible idea. We elect leaders to take expert opinion and lead. Giving everyone a say makes no sense. They have no access to the data or the experience needed to make that decision.

wakka12

hopalongcass wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&t=418s


I'd appreciate if everyone would have a gander at this and this give their opinion,should be a bit of an eye opener for some.

So he says that based off the fact that 39% of people who admitted themselves to be tested came back positive for the virus, that this figure could likely be extrapolated to the entire state. Bit of an imbecile remark to make I'd have to say, a person who has presented themeslves to be tested is of course significantly more likely to test positive given they usually have areason for wanting to be tested, such as feeling ill, showing symptoms, or contact with infected.

Anyway, antibody testing has shown him to be wrong, very unsurprisingly. A sample of 3000 random New Yorkers showed infection rates nowhere close to 39%

Most people in the wintertime who are admitted to hospital because of flu like symptoms will test positive for the circulating influenza during that period.It has little bearing on the number of people in the community who have contracted influenza

wakka12

Squeaksoutloud wrote: »

Bit of a jump to assume the same percentage positive who are tested extrapolates out to the whole population who didn't have symptoms/get tested.

Its more than a jump, its completely wrong

Random testing is the only way you could judge how many people are infected in the community.

hopalongcass

wakka12 wrote: »

So he says that based off the fact that 39% of people who admitted themselves to be tested came back positive for the virus, that this figure could likely be extrapolated to the entire state. Bit of an imbecile remark to make I'd have to say, a person who has presented themeslves to be tested is of course significantly more likely to test positive given they usually have areason for wanting to be tested, such as feeling ill, showing symptoms, or contact with infected.

Anyway, antibody testing has shown him to be wrong, very unsurprisingly. A sample of 3000 random New Yorkers showed infection rates nowhere close to 39%

Most people in the wintertime who are admitted to hospital because of flu like symptoms will test positive for the circulating influenza during that period.It has little bearing on the number of people in the community who have contracted influenza

Again people are free to take from they want from it,but throughout this whole pandemic if anyone online questioned Holohan they were shut down with the "trust the experts" and tin foil hat accusations.

Now you are pretty much doing what they were doing,you are calling a highly trained expert in the field working on the ground,someone who studied this exact subject for 20 years is an imbecile.

Now a few posters here know more than obviously highly educated experts on this subject,how the tables have turned.Its a bit rich don't you think? pretty sure if i searched back your posts i would find you deriding someone for questioning experts in this field.

Whats you guys background? Did you study immunology or microbiology?

gormdubhgorm

wakka12 wrote: »

Its more than a jump, its completely wrong

Those two guys in the video Dr. Artin Massih and Daniel W. Erickson OWN an Urgent accelerated Health Care Unit.

They seem to be thinking economically first and foremost?

Other health care professionals in the California county they are in do NOT concur with the two doctors

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/kern-county-public-health-does-not-concur-with-statements-made-by-accelerated-urgent-care-doctors

wakka12

hopalongcass wrote: »

Again people are free to take from they want from it,but throughout this whole pandemic if anyone online questioned Holohan they were shut down with the "trust the experts" and tin foil hat accusations.

Now you are pretty much doing what they were doing,you are calling a highly trained expert in the field working on the ground,someone who studied this exact subject for 20 years is an imbecile.

Now a few posters here know more than obviously highly educated experts on this subject,how the tables have turned.Its a bit rich don't you think? pretty sure if i searched back your posts i would find you deriding someone for questioning experts in this field.

Whats you guys background? Did you study immunology or microbiology?

You cannot judge how many people in a community have a virus based on those who presented to be tested. That is without a doubt, doesnt matter one iota who said it.
If he said half of the people in New York currently(or have in the past)experiencing flu like illnesses have covid based on the rates of positive cases in testing centres that might have some grain of truth to it(though even that is a enormous assumption in itself). But hes making the huge, enormous, unbelievable, assumption that 39% of new york's population has been sick with the virus based on the fact that 39% of SICK/SYMPTOMATIC people at testing centres had the virus

And feel free to look through my posts if you wish, I've never done that and I dont accept information I would believe to be BS based solely on somebody's professional title. I would cross reference what they have stated with other professionals in their field and see if it alines with their beliefs, and if it doesnt, what proof they have to believe different to them.
Try finding a single other doctor apart from them in the entire world for me who believes the level of positives from testing centres can be extrapolated to an entire community, if you find even one, I'd be absolutely astonished

hopalongcass

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Those two guys in the video Dr. Artin Massih and Daniel W. Erickson OWN an Urgent accelerated Health Care Unit.

They seem to be thinking economically first and foremost?

Other health care professionals in the California county they are in do NOT concur with the two doctors

https://www.turnto23.com/news/coronavirus/kern-county-public-health-does-not-concur-with-statements-made-by-accelerated-urgent-care-doctors

Obviously the smearing has begun , its pretty obvious people have drawn their line in the sand on this and some have agendas here and some are just blind to the obvious.

But if you watch that whole video their background really doesn't matter even though i quoted some of their qualifications because if you listen to the whole video what they are saying is very basic common sense if you are willing to listen.

gormdubhgorm

hopalongcass wrote: »

Obviously the smearing has begun , its pretty obvious people have drawn their line in the sand on this and some have agendas here and some are just blind to the obvious.

But if you watch that whole video their background really doesn't matter even though i quoted some of their qualifications because if you listen to the whole video what they are saying is very basic common sense if you are willing to listen.

Look other medical professionals in the same county of those two doctors say they must stay the course.

https://bakersfieldnow.com/news/local/a-rebuttal-from-local-doctors-that-kern-county-is-not-ready-to-open

There is also mention of asymptomatic cases which those other doctors did not even mention..

So now who do believe two rogue doctors or the majority of experts?
Up to you I suppose.

gormdubhgorm

hopalongcass wrote: »

Obviously the smearing has begun , its pretty obvious people have drawn their line in the sand on this and some have agendas here and some are just blind to the obvious.

But if you watch that whole video their background really doesn't matter even though i quoted some of their qualifications because if you listen to the whole video what they are saying is very basic common sense if you are willing to listen.

They are really talking sense? Their whole argument is based on extrapolated data from all over the place. Which may not be the full data, it might only be a certain cohort etc. You have to ask yourself the question why is it only these two doctors that are going against the majority of medical experts?
Fame notoriety? Free publicity?

hopalongcass

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

They are really talking sense thier whole argument is based on extrapolated data from all over the place. Which may not be the full data, it might only be a certain cohort etc. You have to ask yourself the question why is it only these two doctors that are going against the majority of medical experts?
Fame notoriety? Free publicity?

I won't disagree with you completely on their data.But the Swedish and particularly Iceland models seem to row in with they are saying.

I think there's varying data out there and i wouldn't hang my hat on the figures he is quoting and like you say they could quite possibly be after limelight etc.

But their points on secondary effects of the lockdown plus their points on cocooning and sterilizing everything are very valid points that is very hard to disagree with just using a bit of common sense.

wakka12

So , Hopalongcass, based on that doctors belief. We can say 52% of Algerian population has COVID because 52% of the tests they have done have come back positive. 3400 positives, out of 6500 tests. But they only have 425 deaths.

Meanwhile Spain, apparently only 17% of their population has COVID. Because only 17% of their tests have come back positive. 229,000 positives, out of 1.34 million tests.
And yet, they have over 23,500 deaths.

Wow, whats going on in Spain?
Algeria is doing so well, they apparently not only have over 3x more infections than Spain per capita, but miraculously 55x times less deaths too.

That doctors beliefs, are pure and utter crock of ****e. I have to say it's ironic you think theyre talking common sense when a bit of common sense would tell you they are miles off on this one

hopalongcass

wakka12 wrote: »

So , Hopalongcass, based on that doctors belief. We can say 52% of Algerian population has COVID because 52% of the tests they have done have come back positive. 3400 positives, out of 6500 tests. But they only have 425 deaths.

Meanwhile Spain, apparently only 17% of their population has COVID. Because only 17% of their tests have come back positive. 229,000 positives, out of 1.34 million tests.
And yet, they have over 23,500 deaths.

Wow, whats going on in Spain? Just a super unhealthy population?
Algeria is doing so well, they apparently not only have 3x more infections than Spain per capita, but miraculously 50x times less deaths too.

That doctors beliefs, are pure and utter crock of ****e

But if you are to take this doctor at his word and i am not saying i am 100 percent swallowing everything he is selling but he claims there is pressure from above to put deaths down as covid,if this was true this would be affecting numbers and stats.

Also we are told its a highly highly contagious disease and its been in India and some other densely populated 3 world countries for a while now,so given they have inferior healthcare systems and densely populated countries it should be running like wildfire through these places,but it is not,why? since its so contagious and its already in these countries weeks and weeks ago.

Throw in the Iceland under 1 percent figure in the most extensively tested country in Europe and you have a lot of things that aren't adding up,so its going to push people to ask questions and these doctors are giving answers that seems to make more sense than what we are being told.

wakka12

hopalongcass wrote: »

But if you are to take this doctor at his word and i am not saying i am 100 percent swallowing everything he is selling but he claims there is pressure from above to put deaths down as covid,if this was true this would be affecting numbers and stats.

Also we are told its a highly highly contagious disease and its been in India and some other densely populated 3 world countries for a while now,so given they have inferior healthcare systems and densely populated countries it should be running like wildfire through these places,but it is not,why? since its so contagious and its already in these countries weeks and weeks ago.

Throw in the Iceland under 1 percent figure in the most extensively tested country in Europe and you have a lot of things that aren't adding up,so its going to push people to ask questions and these doctors are giving answers that seems to make more sense than what we are being told.

Well yeh I'd agree with all that. Particular India is an enigma, deaths rates are way below seasonal norms across the country currently

I don't see how what that doctor is saying goes any way to explain that though

hopalongcass

wakka12 wrote: »

Well yeh I'd agree with all that. Particular India is an enigma, deaths rates are way below seasonal norms across the country currently

I don't see how what that doctor is saying goes any way to explain that though

Well his theory that its no worse than the seasonal flu goes some way to explaining it and that cocooning and sanitizing everything weakens our immune systems and makes it worse.

sheepsh4gger

Horsebox9000 wrote: »

salt of the earth residents in Ringsend

It's complete cringe.

abff

One thing that seems clear is that there is a lot of inconsistency in the way in which deaths are recorded, or, more specifically whether or not they are attributed to COVID-19. In many cases, it's the interaction of COVID-19 with a pre-existing condition that causes the death of the patient and many of these people might have had a short time to live even without the virus. If all such cases are recorded as attributable to COVID-19, the overall impact is probably being overstated. If none of them are, then it's being understated.

I'm not sure though why those doctors are claiming that they are being put under pressure to attribute deaths to COVID-19. I don't see who would have to gain by overstating the figures. If anything, I would have thought the pressure would be to attribute the cause of death to the pre-existing condition.

wakka12

hopalongcass wrote: »

Well his theory that its no worse than the seasonal flu goes some way to explaining it and that cocooning and sanitizing everything weakens our immune systems and makes it worse.

But what about the Diamond Princess ship which happened before we sanitised everything? Much more people died in that outbreak than a similar scale flu out break on the shop would cause, even taking into account the older age of Passengers

sheepysheep

hopalongcass wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfLVxx_lBLU&t=418s


I'd appreciate if everyone would have a gander at this and this give their opinion,should be a bit of an eye opener for some.

This is an excellent post. Very interesting perspective. However, a lot of people seem to have no interest in a contrarian viewpoint. I referenced Prof Johan Giesecke, an eminent Swedish epidemiologists last week. His views barely merited a mention. Prof. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi from Germany also has some interesting perspective.

All the data at this stage is pointing to a IFR well below 0.4 to 0.1 and even less for those between ages 0-65. Everyone still waiting on the Swedish collapse.

The economy matters too. Sky reported a potential 125 million people face food shortage due to Corono virus. Thousands in India already forced to stand in queues in the blaring sun outside soup kitchens.

Surely, that's a potential disaster more worthy of consideration than octogenarians dying 6 weeks earlier than may have been expected.

wakka12

abff wrote: »

One thing that seems clear is that there is a lot of inconsistency in the way in which deaths are recorded, or, more specifically whether or not they are attributed to COVID-19. In many cases, it's the interaction of COVID-19 with a pre-existing condition that causes the death of the patient and many of these people might have had a short time to live even without the virus. If all such cases are recorded as attributable to COVID-19, the overall impact is probably being overstated. If none of them are, then it's being understated.

I'm not sure though why those doctors are claiming that they are being put under pressure to attribute deaths to COVID-19. I don't see who would have to gain by overstating the figures. If anything, I would have thought the pressure would be to attribute the cause of death to the pre-existing condition.

Yeh exactly, that is usually the trend in most countries. Remember Donald trump didn't want that ship with lord of covid infected patients docking in the country because it would inflate the number of people infected in the country, no government wants to be seen to be allowing or incompetent enough to not be able to stop this from killing a lot of people

sheepsh4gger

abff wrote: »

I'm not sure though why those doctors are claiming that they are being put under pressure to attribute deaths to COVID-19. I don't see who would have to gain by overstating the figures. If anything, I would have thought the pressure would be to attribute the cause of death to the pre-existing condition.

At least in UK they get extra money for diagnosing people with the Wuhan flu (by saying COVID-19 you help the CCP) so there's a monetary incentive to over-diagnose.
There's I think an unfair bias towards protecting the the boomer landlord/investor class. Everything for the boomers, everyone else can eat cake. It makes you wonder what kind of society is willing to sacrifice everyone's future to prop up old people. Boomers always get bailed out and protected, everyone else gets stiffed.

gormdubhgorm

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

At least in UK they get extra money for diagnosing people with the Wuhan flu (by saying COVID-19 you help the CCP) so there's a monetary incentive to over-diagnose.
There's I think an unfair bias towards protecting the the boomer landlord/investor class. Everything for the boomers, everyone else can eat cake. It makes you wonder what kind of society is willing to sacrifice everyone's future to prop up old people. Boomers always get bailed out and protected, everyone else gets stiffed.

These type of posts are getting sillier. The whole idea of stopping the spread is to stop the health system being overwhelmed a la Italy and Spain. It is not a question of just propping up some old people. How old is Mary Lou and Boris they both got covid19 for example.

Also it is not only old people with underlying conditions it is younger people as well. There are about 5/10% per cent of the world with asthma for example.

Then of course there are children with various diseases/conditions which cause them to have a low immune system.

Of course in your conspiracy theorist mind it all about protecting the rich landlord classes!

By the way two thirds of landlords are ordinary individuals, who only own one property.

gormdubhgorm

hopalongcass wrote: »

But their points on secondary effects of the lockdown plus their points on cocooning and sterilizing everything are very valid points that is very hard to disagree with just using a bit of common sense.

Those secondary conditions they mention are always going to be problems no matter what is going on. There is lack of resolve in a lot of people I can already see it on boards people bandying phrases like 'mental health' being affected after six weeks!

I know disabled kids who had to endure much longer recovery from surgeries then that for example. And they have much less freedom. To crow about secondary conditions as a reason to go for a free for all and bansjaxed the health system is madness. Secondary conditions is a red herring in my view from people with weak resolve and throw in the towel, before the second half of the match.

is_that_so

sheepysheep wrote: »

This is an excellent post. Very interesting perspective. However, a lot of people seem to have no interest in a contrarian viewpoint. I referenced Prof Johan Giesecke, an eminent Swedish epidemiologists last week. His views barely merited a mention. Prof. Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi from Germany also has some interesting perspective.

All the data at this stage is pointing to a IFR well below 0.4 to 0.1 and even less for those between ages 0-65. Everyone still waiting on the Swedish collapse.

The economy matters too. Sky reported a potential 125 million people face food shortage due to Corono virus. Thousands in India already forced to stand in queues in the blaring sun outside soup kitchens.

Surely, that's a potential disaster more worthy of consideration than octogenarians dying 6 weeks earlier than may have been expected.

Well that's a stand-up contribution. Faux empathy for Indians at soup kitchens merely underlines your callous indifference. There's a good reason people ignore Giesecke. Some of his science may be right, herd immunity is not a given BTW, but he really, really sucks as a human being.

growleaves

abff wrote: »

I'm not sure though why those doctors are claiming that they are being put under pressure to attribute deaths to COVID-19. I don't see who would have to gain by overstating the figures. If anything, I would have thought the pressure would be to attribute the cause of death to the pre-existing condition.

Lockdown is a radical and destructive policy which require lots of post-facto justification. Making covid seem deadlier than it is provides part of that justification.

cooperguy

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

At least in UK they get extra money for diagnosing people with the Wuhan flu (by saying COVID-19 you help the CCP) so there's a monetary incentive to over-diagnose.
There's I think an unfair bias towards protecting the the boomer landlord/investor class. Everything for the boomers, everyone else can eat cake. It makes you wonder what kind of society is willing to sacrifice everyone's future to prop up old people. Boomers always get bailed out and protected, everyone else gets stiffed.

No, the idea was to ensure the health system didnt collapse as it was overwhelmed with cases (as was seen in other places). Time was allowed to increase capacity etc. in the health system. Now that we have more capacity in the system and more data on the rate of spread we will be easing off restrictions. If, as we ease off restrictions, we dont see a huge spike in cases we will continue to ease the restrictions (we will also be keeping an eye on countries a few weeks ahead of us - if they dont see a huge spike it will give us even more confidence)

Seems like, overall, its a pretty logical approach