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has covid 19 been blown out of all proportion?

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    #752
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Newbraska and Iowa, two states without stay at home orders, report 70% and 86% increase in new cases in the last 7 days

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/01/coronavirus-us-may-hit-10000-deaths-record-cases-may/3062216001/

    American death toll estimates revised upwards
    'For now, the widely cited COVID-19 model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), often used as a reference during White House media briefings, projects 72,433 deaths by Aug. 4, though with a maximum range up to 114,228.'

    It looks like it will be wrong though, deaths are hardly slowing in the USA, will likely surpass 72,000 by Tuesday
    'The IHME model has been accused of being overly optimistic. Others predict the nation will reach 100,000 deaths in the latter part of May.'
    'Youyang Gu, a data scientist whose model is one of seven listed by the CDC website, concurs with the late-May estimate for reaching six figures. Gu’s COVID-19 Projections, which relies on data from Johns Hopkins to forecast future deaths through a combination of artificial intelligence and a classic infectious-disease model, factors in the expected loosening of stay-at-home orders.

    Gu foresees as many as 166,000 deaths from COVID-19 by Aug. 4, more than twice as many as the IHME, and trouble ahead for states reopening without knowing whether the virus has been contained.'


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    #753
    VillageIdiot71
    Registered Users Posts: 578 ✭✭✭VillageIdiot71


    wakka12 wrote: »
    The projection of 85,000 was a worst case scenario possible, also over the course of at least a year. 1265 have died in 5 weeks with a massive lockdown, its also been the best case scenario scenario within that,given that its hardly that hard to imagine the worst case figure if cases were so many that health service collapsed. I'm sure by the end of the crisis, when a vaccine arrives in 18-24 months and we have experienced multiple waves, Ireland will have done very well if it keeps total deaths under 15,000-20,000

    Anyway looks like Brazil will serve as a constant reminder to the world as an example of an urbanised society which didnt embrace any social distancing measures
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/30/brazil-manaus-coronavirus-mass-graves
    Does this still look reasonable?

    Ireland normally has about 30,000 deaths each year. Do we think we're heading for 40,000 this year?

    Twenty-five days later, do we feel that Brazil is giving us the terrible reminder expected? Do we feel they are heading for millions of deaths - in a context where about 1.25 million Brazilians pass on each year?

    Is any country demonstrating that the risk is profound?


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    #754
    wakka12
    Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    VillageIdiot71 wrote: »
    Does this still look reasonable?

    Ireland normally has about 30,000 deaths each year. Do we think we're heading for 40,000 this year?

    Twenty-five days later, do we feel that Brazil is giving us the terrible reminder expected? Do we feel they are heading for millions of deaths - in a context where about 1.25 million Brazilians pass on each year?

    Is any country demonstrating that the risk is profound?
    Brazil had almost no deaths before April , 23,000 deaths in 6-7 weeks in a population where about 145,000 die in that time typically is indeed what I would call very high numbers
    . They are not heading for millions but certainly over 100,000 by mid summer and we do not have much information on how the curve with this disease will go beyond that, maybe it will just burnt out, who knows.


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    #755
    ChelseaRentBoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 474 ✭✭ChelseaRentBoy


    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »
    First off I have followed all the restrictions and I am also and essential worker.

    Nearly 1'000 people dead that is very sad and the situation in elderly and care homes is very bad not saying otherwise the very people who needed to be protected don't seem to have benefited from this lockdown.

    I am still working away so I have my wages so this crisis has not cost me anything so I have not started this thread for selfish reasons I also have elderly folks so I do worry about them.


    However under 1'000 dead we got warnings of upwards of 100'000 dead I think it is pretty safe to say that number now looks way over the top.


    This lockdown has wreaked the economy and did we need to close schools?

    At the start of all this I was going for people who said this only hits the old as every life counts.

    Knowing what we know not MY OPINION is we should have totally locked down the care homes staff should have been isolated with the residents.

    As for the rest of us the virus should have just been let run it's course.

    The one group we said this was for have been totally let down.

    This is a discussion forum I have offered my opinion and asked others to share their please do not attack me if you do not agree.:)

    Edit remember this?

    Screenshot-2020-04-23-at-19-24-52.png

    Hard to believe a grown adult posted this.


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    #756
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »
    Hard to believe a grown adult posted this.

    Harder to believe an adult is incapable of a mature response instead of levelling a snide comment at the poster. Why not debate the comment instead of getting personal.


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    #757
    cian68
    Registered Users Posts: 894 ✭✭✭cian68


    cian68 wrote: »
    That is precisely BECAUSE of the precautions taken

    Completely pulled this out of my arse when I was in a mood but will happily take those numbers


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    #758
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »
    So it's 100 times less because of the lockdown?

    Sweden seems to be getting along ok without the lockdown.


    Afraid not.
    Compared to their neighbours Norway, Finland and Denmark, per head of population their deaths are 3.5 times the combined total of the three.
    Their much vaunted herd immunity modelling figures haven`t panned out. Antibody testing has shown just 5% nationally.
    Same as both Spain and France who both had lock-down.


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    #759
    Ashleigh1986
    Registered Users Posts: 672 ✭✭✭Ashleigh1986


    Ireland should be fully reopened on the 29th June .
    That's still just over 4 weeks away .
    It should be announced that the €350 covid finishes that week ( I'm on this payment ).
    Of course large gatherings shouldn't go ahead for the rest of the year .
    Business'es are dying ... Some won't reopen ... The politicans should grow a pair and earn their large salaries .


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    #760
    0lddog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,292 ✭✭✭0lddog


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Afraid not.
    Compared to their neighbours Norway, Finland and Denmark, per head of population their deaths are 3.5 times the combined total of the three.
    ........


    Considering that the Swedes have been practising social distancing since the time of The Vikings this is shocking


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    #761
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,158 ✭✭✭combat14


    20000 died of spanish flu so no not over precautious .. second wave was alot worse than the first...
    people dying within 2 hours of getting it ..
    so government would be negligent not to act the way they did overall...


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    #762
    rob316
    Registered Users Posts: 18,006 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    combat14 wrote: »
    20000 died of spanish flu so no not over precautious .. second wave was alot worse than the first...
    people dying within 2 hours of getting it ..
    so government would be negligent not to act the way they did overall...

    100 years ago hygiene and health was far worse and there was a world war. Its idiotic to compare the two situations.


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    #763
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    0lddog wrote: »
    Considering that the Swedes have been practising social distancing since the time of The Vikings this is shocking


    With 40% of their population living in one person households had they been practising social distancing it`s fair to assume their numbers would be similar to the other three.

    Instead they went with a strategy on immunity that from their own antibody test results is going nowhere.


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    #764
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Harder to believe an adult is incapable of a mature response instead of levelling a snide comment at the poster. Why not debate the comment instead of getting personal.

    I just do not respond to ****e like that.:)


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    #765
    VillageIdiot71
    Registered Users Posts: 578 ✭✭✭VillageIdiot71


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Brazil had almost no deaths before April , 23,000 deaths in 6-7 weeks in a population where about 145,000 die in that time typically is indeed what I would call very high numbers
    . They are not heading for millions but certainly over 100,000 by mid summer and we do not have much information on how the curve with this disease will go beyond that, maybe it will just burnt out, who knows.
    But just holding that thought, given their population is about 50 times ours, 100,000 deaths their is like 2,000 deaths here. Again, not the out of control disaster we'd have expected a month ago.


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