Relaxation of restrictions Part II

drunkmonkey

NewRed2 wrote: »

God almighty, look first off how do you want someone to prove that people are complying with regulations? Is it a certificate you're after? Now secondly nobody in any nation complies with anything 100%, there's always the 1%, so again, yeah you go looking for proof of something impossible and when that's not provided you win your little argument yeah? That's a wee bit sad imo but you go off and celebrate that little victory if it makes you happy. The rest of us can discuss it like adults.

When this all kicked off there was an advantage there for islands like us and also the UK. We could clearly see it all developing and it hadn't arrived on our door-step yet. We're surrounded by sea and had the chance to see it developing in other countries, many of them land-locked and it was an advantage there for us and the UK to stop travel into the country and/or quarantine anyone coming in and that way this never happens here or is easier to control.
We didn't. And in fact in the UK they got it even worse, they allowed sporting events to continue and the champions league match between Liverpool and Atleti Madrid brought thousands of Spanish over from a region known to be rife with Covid-19 and allowed them to mingle and spend a few days in Liverpool.
Surprise surprise, Liverpool had a massive spike in Covid 19 not long after, larger than most other areas in the uk per capita.
If travel had been prevented and the advantage of being an island had been used then UK and Ireland cold have fared so much better but that was warning number 1 ignored.
Then in Italy the elderly were being wiped out with this, they have large areas of elderly in some cities there living very close together, but again, warnings were there and ignored again. How are our nursing homes doing lately?
Then fine we did our lockdown, we were told we needed to do it to give the HSE time to get prepared. No arguments with that one. Then it got extended. Then it got extended again and guess what, they still haven't got testing up to speed. Meanwhile the public are getting the blame. Or at least we were until some journalists put it up to them that we weren't to blame after all.

So look, there's no such thing as 100% compliance but the public have been as close to it as you could wish to get. Lets call it 95% if that suits you, how about the Government and HSE's side of the bargain? I doubt any rational person would give them the same grade over all this.
How about letting us go back to work if we can comply with social distancing before it gets to the stage where we have no businesses to go back to and can't support our kids? Some of us are self employed and not having a holiday here.
It's not just about saving lives at this stage, it's about not ruining them as well.

A few of days ago I would have agreed with you, then the sh!t hit the fan locally in the last couple of days with a factory having over 80 positive tests and 200 staff out. People are going nuts as those people aren't isolating, so in 2 weeks time we should have a burst of cases due to this idiot employer who wanted to keep the show on the road at all costs. It's crap that like that will keep us in lockdown.
Isolating has to be mandatory and forced, I know why they were welding apartments shut in Whuhan now.
I'm not happy about this, I'm not a lockdowner but I see the problem with the soft approach and trusting people to do the right thing.

iamwhoiam

Is boards at a crawl for everyone or just me ?

CoronaBlocker

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Is boards at a crawl for everyone or just me ?

You are not alone.

GazzaL

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Changes will be made every two to four weeks but the Government will intervene if things are going off track and some elements would be reintroduced.

Mr Varadkar said he hopes to put the plan before Cabinet tomorrow to be signed off on.

He said there were five key priorities to be considered in lifting the restrictions:

Progress of the disease
Healthcare capacity and resilience
Testing and contact tracing capacity
Ability to shield and care for at-risk groups
Risk of secondary morbidity due to the restrictions themselves

Just on these 5 priorities:
Progress of the disease
R0 has been below 1 for weeks. Professor Nolan said that the growth rate of new cases has effectively been zero.

Healthcare capacity and resilience
Hospital admissions and numbers in ICU have been declining for weeks. Our ICU occupancy is approx 33%, i.e. 66% empty. Based on our ICU capacity prior to COVID-19, it would still only be 50% occupancy. These are good, manageable numbers. Meanwhile, other areas such as A&E departments and private hospitals

Testing and contact tracing capacity
The HSE have consistently failed to hit their target of 100,000 tests per week, however it is generally improving. Given the HSEs track record, their failure to hit this target cannot be used as justification to extend the lockdown.

Ability to shield and care for at-risk groups
We need to do everything possible to support nursing homes, ensuring staff have plentiful supply of the correct PPE and hygiene products.

Risk of secondary morbidity due to the restrictions themselves
We have been in full lockdown for 5 weeks. Businesses are ready to re-open having put in place social distancing and hygiene measures. If they are not allowed to re-open asap, the number of temporary job losses that become permanent job losses will exponentially increase. Businesses large and small are going to collapse. People can't see their families and friends. They are losing all the things that make life worth living. People either aren't seeking the medical attention they need, A&E departments are deserted, or they are unable to receive treatment, private hospitals are lying empty. We all know that people haven't stopped becoming ill with non-COVID illnesses. There is a serious risk of secondary morbidity either from illness, or mental illness and suicide.

Based on those 5 priorities, I can't see any justification to continue this lockdown.

GazzaL

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Changes will be made every two to four weeks but the Government will intervene if things are going off track and some elements would be reintroduced.

Mr Varadkar said he hopes to put the plan before Cabinet tomorrow to be signed off on.

He said there were five key priorities to be considered in lifting the restrictions:

Progress of the disease
Healthcare capacity and resilience
Testing and contact tracing capacity
Ability to shield and care for at-risk groups
Risk of secondary morbidity due to the restrictions themselves

Just on these 5 priorities:
Progress of the disease
R0 has been below 1 for weeks. Professor Nolan said that the growth rate of new cases has effectively been zero.

Healthcare capacity and resilience
Hospital admissions and numbers in ICU have been declining for weeks. Our ICU occupancy is approx 33%, i.e. 66% empty. Based on our ICU capacity prior to COVID-19, it would still only be 50% occupancy. These are good, manageable numbers.

Testing and contact tracing capacity
The HSE have consistently failed to hit their target of 100,000 tests per week, however it is generally improving. Given the HSEs track record, their failure to hit this target cannot be used as justification to extend the lockdown.

Ability to shield and care for at-risk groups
We need to do everything possible to support nursing homes, ensuring staff have plentiful supply of the correct PPE and hygiene products.

Risk of secondary morbidity due to the restrictions themselves
We have been in full lockdown for 5 weeks. Businesses are ready to re-open having put in place social distancing and hygiene measures. If they are not allowed to re-open asap, the number of temporary job losses that become permanent job losses will exponentially increase. Businesses large and small are going to collapse. People can't see their families and friends. They are losing all the things that make life worth living. People either aren't seeking the medical attention they need, A&E departments are deserted, or they are unable to receive treatment, private hospitals are lying empty. We all know that people haven't stopped becoming ill with non-COVID illnesses. There is a serious risk of secondary morbidity either from illness, or mental illness and suicide.

Based on those 5 priorities, I can't see any justification to continue this lockdown.

Speakerboxx

Deaths are still too high and new cases still too high. Expect very little to change tomorrow regarding restrictions.

cherryghost

Over half the cases from nursing homes, 1/4 of the cases are from Healthcare workers. Almost nothing outside the urban areas... am I missing something?

Stark

Harris just came out and said the R0 is holding steady between 0.5 and 0.8. So compliance is presumably very high. That or compliance is loose but the manner in which people are defying lockdown is low risk. Which makes sense to me as outdoor settings have the lowest risk for transmission but have the highest visibility.

Newsflash: Coronavirus thought not to be linked to seismic activity in the Dublin mountains after all.

KrustyUCC

222 of those 359 cases are from nursing homes.

Absolutely nothing to do with the general public

omeara1113

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Is boards at a crawl for everyone or just me ?

Me too

ixoy

One nugget from the data there - 5,684 cases of healthcare workers being tested positive but of those 210 were hospitalised. That's less than 4% and this is from people who are more exposed to heavy viral loads. Obviously very high but a bit different than what we've heard about the risk of ending up in hospital. Is it a younger age profile in play here?

easypazz

Speakerboxx wrote: »

Deaths are still too high and new cases still too high. Expect very little to change tomorrow regarding restrictions.

Deaths are often from weeks ago, just recorded recently.

AFAIK this week the testing net has been cast much wider, people with 1 symptom, also increased number of daily tests etc.

We need to be able to drill into the data to see more about who the new cases are etc.

If its all related to HSE staff, close contacts, care home patients etc. then there is really no reason to keep us all under full lockdown.

I believe they want us to see a picture that does not show that the virus was spread by cross contamination between various hospitals and care homes etc.

It’s clear the illness is now mainly impacting care homes and medical staff.
Locking down for another 7 weeks won’t impact those areas.

It’s time for people under 70 to get back to some level of normality.

appledrop

GazzaL wrote: »

Just on these 5 priorities:
Progress of the disease
R0 has been below 1 for weeks. Professor Nolan said that the growth rate of new cases has effectively been zero.

Healthcare capacity and resilience
Hospital admissions and numbers in ICU have been declining for weeks. Our ICU occupancy is approx 33%, i.e. 66% empty. Based on our ICU capacity prior to COVID-19, it would still only be 50% occupancy. These are good, manageable numbers.

Testing and contact tracing capacity
The HSE have consistently failed to hit their target of 100,000 tests per week, however it is generally improving. Given the HSEs track record, their failure to hit this target cannot be used as justification to extend the lockdown.

Ability to shield and care for at-risk groups
We need to do everything possible to support nursing homes, ensuring staff have plentiful supply of the correct PPE and hygiene products.

Risk of secondary morbidity due to the restrictions themselves
We have been in full lockdown for 5 weeks. Businesses are ready to re-open having put in place social distancing and hygiene measures. If they are not allowed to re-open asap, the number of temporary job losses that become permanent job losses will exponentially increase. Businesses large and small are going to collapse. People can't see their families and friends. They are losing all the things that make life worth living. People either aren't seeking the medical attention they need, A&E departments are deserted, or they are unable to receive treatment, private hospitals are lying empty. We all know that people haven't stopped becoming ill with non-COVID illnesses. There is a serious risk of secondary morbidity either from illness, or mental illness and suicide.

Based on those 5 priorities, I can't see any justification to continue this lockdown.

I would 100% agree but cant wait to see the spin Leo & Co put on those 5 points to keep us in lockdown.

KrustyUCC

Dr Tony has spoken

No reason to lift restrictions

Wooo another 2 weeks free for them again

FishOnABike

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Out today and many cars on the road .

First i have noticed a significant relaxation.

People need some guidance ASAP.

Think without any announcement the lockdown falls apart within days.

We have guidance
- stay at home
- exercise within 2km of your home
- maintain social distance
- no unnecessary journeys

The better people stick to current recommendations the quicker some restrictions might be lifted.

NewRed2

drunkmonkey wrote: »

A few of days ago I would have agreed with you, then the sh!t hit the fan locally in the last couple of days with a factory having over 80 positive tests and 200 staff out. People are going nuts as those people aren't isolating, so in 2 weeks time we should have a burst of cases due to this idiot employer who wanted to keep the show on the road at all costs. It's crap that like that will keep us in lockdown.
Isolating has to be mandatory and forced, I know why they were welding apartments shut in Whuhan now.
I'm not happy about this, I'm not a lockdowner but I see the problem with the soft approach and trusting people to do the right thing.

Ah here. So you're talking about a factory with 200 staff out and 80 positive cases now?
I said in my post that us self-employed who can maintain social distancing rules should be allowed back to work. And you come back with a story about 80 positive and 200 out. What factory was that? It sounds news worthy. Care to name it?

I'll be more specific so and just talk about my own situation, there are a handful of people who work in our place and we have large amounts of space and easy peasy to maintain distance. Jobs get delivered and no customers enter our premises either. But we are not allowed go to work.
There are hundreds, even thousands of wee family businesses like this in Ireland. But we're not allowed return to work under the rules even though we could manage the social distancing, even though we've been out of work for 5 weeks, even though we will lose our only source of income if we don't go back soon and even though we have obeyed all rules during lockdown.

If I'm one of the people who can just move jobs if I lose my job over this then maybe I'd sit at home and watch tv and tell everyone to stay calm and stuff.
But not all of us are in that position.
Again, I appreciate the balancing act at play here and I appreciate why we've done these things but at some stage we have to return to work and I'm not in the least bit convinced that kicking the can down the road 2 more weeks will save any/many more lives but I'm becoming terrified that my only source of income is gone, there's thousands in the same boat, there's thousands missing out on cancer treatment, there's thousands suffering from mental health issues, there's thousands losing out on seeing their families, friends, loved ones, etc. And all that after the public sacrificed 5 weekds or more already and the HSE failed to do their bit.
So yeah people are getting angry now, despite apparent random internet stories about a factory where something went amiss and had a covid-19 explosion and the likes.

GazzaL

FishOnABike wrote: »

We have guidance
- stay at home
- exercise within 2km of your home
- maintain social distance
- no unnecessary journeys

The better people stick to current recommendations the quicker some restrictions might be lifted.

That's bull****, and even the Government and HSE have rowed back on insulting the public, because it's as clear as day that the public have done their job on this.

SNNUS

FishOnABike wrote: »

We have guidance
- stay at home
- exercise within 2km of your home
- maintain social distance
- no unnecessary journeys

The better people stick to current recommendations the quicker some restrictions might be lifted.

Oh I never seen this, is this new?

road_high

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Dr Tony has spoken

No reason to lift restrictions

Wooo another 2 weeks free for them again

Another two weeks of flushing the economy down the toilet at full force.

dalyboy

omeara1113 wrote: »

Me too

Me 3. It’s taking about 10-15 seconds to load a page

gmisk

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Dr Tony has spoken

No reason to lift restrictions

Wooo another 2 weeks free for them again

Who are the them in this?
Doesn't look like Dr Tony has to much free time at the minute to be fair to him.

gmisk

Double post apologies

99nsr125

[Deleted User] wrote: »

And the thousands of people who now wont die?

They will still die, just in the coming months not weeks

That's what flattening the curve is all about, this seems to be lost from the narrative. There will still be the same number of cases both asymptomatic and terminal.

We have no vaccine
We have no cure
We have no treatment, only the symptoms can be eased but ultimately your body must overcome it.

Ask yourself why if we have spare bed capacity why those in nursing homes are not being treated in hospital.
It's because it has been decided at political level with senior heath professionals to let them die.

There's a story on the rte page today from a peer which gives an insight

https://www.rte.ie/culture/2020/0429/1135577-nursing-home-chaos-diary-of-a-pandemic-doctor/

Sean 18

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Dr Tony has spoken

No reason to lift restrictions

Wooo another 2 weeks free for them again

And another 2 or 3 after that theirs no way they ll open up the country before the June bank holiday

Tandey

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Dr Tony has spoken

No reason to lift restrictions

Wooo another 2 weeks free for them again

Another 3 weeks he said.

99nsr125

Duplicate post

Sean 18

99nsr125 wrote: »

They will still die, just in the coming months not weeks

That's what flattening the curve is all about, this seems to be lost from the narrative. There will still be the same number of cases both asymptomatic and terminal.

We have no vaccine
We have no cure
We have no treatment, only the symptoms can be eased but ultimately your body must overcome it.

Ask yourself why if we have spare bed capacity why those in nursing homes are not being treated in hospital.
It's because it has been decided at political level with senior heath professionals to let them die.

There's a story on the rte page today from a peer which gives an insight

https://www.rte.ie/culture/2020/0429/1135577-nursing-home-chaos-diary-of-a-pandemic-doctor/

The thing is we don't know if they will ever find a vaccine and we don't know if you can get reinfected after getting it what's their plan keep us locked up forever the health service is going to be complete mayhem when the flu season starts in the autumn how are they going to manage that?

KrustyUCC

From 12th of March to 5th of May is 55 days

According to the Irish Times timetable it will be at least another 2 months if you don't live within 20km of your partner

Dr Holohan has said now it willl be at three weeks in between stages

You're now up to the end of July

How can the government expect any couple to stick to that?

KrustyUCC

Tandey wrote: »

Another 3 weeks he said.

Brilliant

So that's at least 8 weeks of lockdown with 0 reduction in restrictions

Bloody fantastic