Relaxation of restrictions Part II

30-04-2020 04:37PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Reproduction rate is 0.5 so restrictions need to be removed

Why 0.5 and not 0.4 or 0.6?

castletownman · 30-04-2020 04:37PM

There may be an increase in cars on the roads, noticed it myself too, but shops, and by dint, people are still adhering to the social distancing from what I can see. So long as the increased in volume of cars aren't en route to their holiday homes, I don't see how it can be construed as concerning.

And actually, the wet weather may be a reason for extra cars on the road-fair bad having to walk home with wet groceries.

SAMTALK · 30-04-2020 04:38PM

easypazz wrote: »

I know a few people who have broken the lockdown in recent days. Over 70's who went by car to a bottle bank, others driving to location to do a nice walk while in a roundabout way going shopping, getting paint through the back door of a shop, haircuts etc.

The shamers will have lost interest in reporting everything by this stage and are breaking the lockdown themselves.

The lockdown ends for me next week. Enough is enough.

Massive increase in road traffic next week, the guards won't be able to enforce the lockdown with endless roadblocks.[/QUOTE]

That's all fine , but will you at least take some responsibility if there is another increase or will you lay the blame with the government and HSE

KrustyUCC · 30-04-2020 04:44PM

Why would you take responsibility if your journey added 0 new infections to the number?

Penfailed · 30-04-2020 04:45PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Reproduction rate is 0.5 so restrictions need to be removed

All of them?

drunkmonkey · 30-04-2020 04:53PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

People have it and aren't isolating. i assume you cant back that up with any evidence at all

Sorry the Journalists aren't doing their job, there is no law says anyone has to isolate. It's a personal decision. If your believe there is 100% compliance with isolating show me your evidence.
I gave an example earlier today in this thread and nobody batted an eyelid.
If you want me to give people's names and addresses here I won't be doing that.

Padraig Mor · 30-04-2020 04:58PM

Weepsie wrote: »

It's only so low because of restrictions. It will likely go back up if they are just pulled and everyone goes back on their merry way

I completely agree and the lockdown was absolutely the correct response. But it's done its job and it's time to start - slowly, carefully, and with a watchful gaze - relaxing restrictions. I mean, we have to start opening things up at some stage - and yes, likely with an increase in cases. If our current position of community spread being "effectively zero", a super low R0 of 0.5 and loads of spare capacity in our health system in the hopefully unlikely event it's needed is not a time to start relaxing restrictions........when is?! Another point to bear in mind is the economics from a health system viewpoint - how much longer can we pay for all this spare capacity when we're still locked down? It won't be much good to us if we hold off until, say, September and the government have run out of money to pay everyone at that stage!

Again, I (and most others) don't mean it should be party time at 00.01 on May 5th. I don't see pubs etc open before.....July......September.....who knows? I doubt I'll be physically back in the office before a similar timeframe. But we need to start opening activities and locations with low or minimal danger - i.e. outdoor, let us use the country, there's plenty of space for us all to maintain appropriate separation!

Another thing to bear in mind is that if the current restrictions are maintained until mid May (as seems to be suggested from leaks), I can very easily see the government extending them again to get past the June bank holiday weekend.

KrustyUCC · 30-04-2020 04:59PM

That's not good enough if the government ave only advised people to isolate

In Germany 2 people broke lockdown and they were able to closed down the entire apartment complex and test everyone

https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2020/04/27/germany-to-test-450-apartment-residents-after-infected-members-break-quarantine.html

iamwhoiam · 30-04-2020 05:00PM

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0430/1135866-monaghan-anti-viral-handles/

Great to see companies adapting and trying to get us moving again . Small steps

KrustyUCC · 30-04-2020 05:03PM

They absolutely won't have major any major lifting of restrictions before the June Bank Holiday

Any phase near the June Bank Holiday will be a month long just to be sure

tobefrank321 · 30-04-2020 05:03PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Reproduction rate is 0.5 so restrictions need to be removed

Given that there is next to no community testing, the R0 rate is a guess, likely based off hospital and ICU admissions. For all we know there could be many thousands of asymptomatic or mild cases in the community (if the meat factories are anything to go by).

The R0 doesn't apply to most people as they won't end up in hospital or ICU.

It applies to the at risk category who will have to isolate until a vaccine either way just as they are doing now. As long as covid 19 is an issue they have little choice but to do this. Its not as if under lockdown they can happily go about the community.

Padraig Mor · 30-04-2020 05:04PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

The theory is probably to stop crowding as seen in Parks, mountains, trails, etc. but in reality they jsut need to bang on about keeping distance.

Now I can't speak for every location but as far as I can see the hysteria re 'crowding' in parks etc is wildly exaggerated. The weekend before the current restrictions where we had all this hysteria about crowded parks I and my family went to Farran Forest Park in Cork. If you know it you'll know it has a huge carpark - minimum 100 cars, more even. This was completely full - I'm sure if there was a picture of the carpark on here that weekend the lockdown crew here would be foaming at the moth. But guess what.......there was plenty of space for everyone! It's a bloody forest park! Social distancing easily maintained in virtually all locations except a few brief pinch points - and if you picked it up there I'd suggest doing the Euromillions as the odds of winning that are about the same!

KrustyUCC · 30-04-2020 05:04PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0430/1135866-monaghan-anti-viral-handles/

Great to see companies adapting and trying to get us moving again . Small steps

That's a great system

Fair play to them

30-04-2020 05:07PM

Weepsie wrote: »

Massive increae in traffic today, and that was just me hoping to do some shopping. That said, i'ts payday for a lot of people, so a lot more are doing shopping.

It's only so low because of restrictions. It will likely go back up if they are just pulled and everyone goes back on their merry way

Except people won't go on their merry way. People will social distance, most will still work from home, there will be no mass gatherings, no pubs, no concerts etc.

drunkmonkey · 30-04-2020 05:07PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's not good enough if the government ave only advised people to isolate

In Germany 2 people broke lockdown and they were able to closed down the entire apartment complex and test everyone

We need to do it to towns, some places it's rampant. I thought we were getting through this and people would show some cop on but it's become apparent this isn't happening, journalists need to start naiming locations, there seems to be an agreement between the media and HSE not to do this.

polesheep · 30-04-2020 05:08PM

Padraig Mor wrote: »

+1.

There is no scientific basis whatsoever for the restrictions in their current form to be maintained beyond May 5th. The vast majority of the community have adhered to the restrictions and done what they were asked - we've done amazingly well as a people. We've already been told - what, two weeks ago now? - that community transmission is "virtually zero". The R0 is ~0.5, one of the lowest in Europe if I'm correct. Currently, the virus is not a serious threat to the average person or the community at large. The lockdown as an appropriate response to the threat at the time and did its job. It is now time to begin the process of reducing restrictions. Despite what the lockdown bedwetters here try to claim, this does not mean that those in favour of liberalisation want an immediate end to all restrictions - nothing could be further from the truth. It'll still be quite a while before we're sitting in pubs again, or the elderly are pootling around town. First thing that needs to go is the 2km limit - and not replaced with a 5/10km limit either - and for parks etc to open again. There is no valid reason for me or anyone else not to bring my kids to a forest 10/20/30km away and go for a walk. I know the Nervous Nellies here think that people will catch the virus en masse in parks - well, they're simply wrong - for the most part this is not a disease of the outdoors and you'd want to pretty damn unlucky to pick this up in your average national park anyway, not to mind if social distancing is employed as far as practicable (which of course it should be).

Will the infection rate climb with reducing restrictions? More than likely, but the degree of that and its extent are far from clear. Just in case, we need additional overhead in our health service - which we have in spades! We have ~100 patients in ICU with Covid-19 currently. IIRC total surge ICU capacity (according to the HSE consultant on here) in the country is in the order of 1000 beds. Even allowing for non-Covid ICU patients, that's a lot of extra capacity. How many reports have we heard that many hospitals are in large part near empty or very quiet? We have private hospitals being paid €115 million a month to look after public patients - and they're empty or near empty! We have loads of spare capacity in the system to deal with a surge if it comes. Now, I'm sure that'll be misinterpreted by the lockdown fetishists as me justifying going to the pub saying "to hell if others get sick, plenty of hospital space for them". Again, completely wrong - as we reduce restrictions we need to keep our eye on the ball in case things go awry.

This is now primarily a disease of nursing homes, long term residential facilities and healthcare facilities and this is where we need to focus our attention. There have been considerable failings by the HSE in dealing with these and I honestly believe that any continuation of the lockdown is an attempt to distract attention from this. To be honest, I'm not quite ready to raise the pitchforks for Holohan yet - I'm sure he and his colleagues did what they thought was best and it's not as if other countries don't have similar problems. The average person did not cause the nursing home outbreaks. We've done what we were asked to do and we've done it well, bringing the virus pretty much to its knees in the community at large. Yet if I want to pop my kids in the car and bring them to the woods for a ramble while maintaining social distancing I'll be turned around by the Gardai if stopped (and there has been a continual checkpoint on the only access to/from my area since Easter) - yet Travellers are allowed break the rules with impunity and with the connivance of Official Ireland?

It's time to start relaxing the restrictions.

FWIW I'm a microbiologist and have significant responsibility for infection control (incl Covid-19) in a large organisation which includes healthcare settings.

This should be printed onto a leaflet and dropped into every letterbox in the country.

kenmm · 30-04-2020 05:12PM

I see England will have randomised testing of 100k people to happen over the next week or two as a finger-in-the-air gauge of infection rates.

What are the chances we will have a suspiciously similar policy announced shortly?

Danno · 30-04-2020 05:14PM

faceman wrote: »

Varadkar has given an indirect reference in the Dail today as to when we can expect to be flying again. When quizzed on the refund issue with Ryanair today and went to to say that he would like to see "Ryanair and Aer Lingus back in operation sometime in the summer, sometime in August"

I guess that can be used as an expectation

The hoor of an industry that helped bring the damn virus here will be one of the first to re-emerge wait and you'll see. There is a strange love-in with open borders in the corridors of Dail Eireann. :rolleyes:

FishOnABike · 30-04-2020 05:15PM

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

Well, that's what's what's being asked of everyone at the moment. Either you cocoon the at-risk people, lockdown everyone or just accept the risks.

None of this is sustainable until a vaccine is available and even then, theres no guarantee it'll work.

Who is at-risk? When you consider the percentage of the population overweight or obese, with high blood pressure, with asthma, taking immunosuppressive medication ( e.g. lupus, psoriasis or rheumatoid arthritis) and other medical conditions and those people's immediate household and close contacts, the number of people needing to be cocooned would be significant. Cocooning alone would not be practicable.

Without some level of restriction CoViD-19 would run rampant through the population.

We need to reduce SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in the population to a low level and eliminate any hotspot clusters and through appropriate levels of restrictions, effective monitoring and contact tracing and a rapid response, maintain it at that low level.

What Username Guidelines · 30-04-2020 05:16PM

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Now I can't speak for every location but as far as I can see the hysteria re 'crowding' in parks etc is wildly exaggerated. The weekend before the current restrictions where we had all this hysteria about crowded parks I and my family went to Farran Forest Park in Cork. If you know it you'll know it has a huge carpark - minimum 100 cars, more even. This was completely full - I'm sure if there was a picture of the carpark on here that weekend the lockdown crew here would be foaming at the moth. But guess what.......there was plenty of space for everyone! It's a bloody forest park! Social distancing easily maintained in virtually all locations except a few brief pinch points - and if you picked it up there I'd suggest doing the Euromillions as the odds of winning that are about the same!

Sorry yeah, I was trying to argue it's all fine if people keep distance. I go hiking, or used to, in the wicklow mountains and most spots have space for 4 or 5 cars. Weekend before restrictions there were lots more, but again, most of the trails are very very long and plenty of space. Its a shame tbh.

Having said that, all I can see around me now is kids being minded by grandparents as parents need to work. It's hard as my own mother minds my daughter but we've kept away for almost 2 months now. I know pretty soon she'll crack and just tell me she'll take her, her own mother is in a nursing home and tested positive so she's up the walls and wants a distraction. We've been cocooning ourselves but still I can't take that risk. Seeing others do it though makes it very hard.

KrustyUCC · 30-04-2020 05:16PM

Travel restrictions will not be amended to stop Northern Ireland day-trippers

Leo Varadkar said he has consulted with the Attorney General in relation to the loophole.

https://www.thejournal.ie/travel-from-northern-ireland-5088381-Apr2020/

It doesn't matter if they are breaking the law in the North

They can't be stopped from continuing their journey down here

Even from an optics point of view Varadkar should have closed the loophole

easypazz · 30-04-2020 05:17PM

The lockdown is done for.

Look at Sweden, Armageddon never happened.

Penfailed · 30-04-2020 05:20PM

kenmm wrote: »

What are the chances we will have a suspiciously similar policy announced shortly?

What would be the problem if it was introduced? Would you be upset that our fellas didn't think of it first?

KrustyUCC · 30-04-2020 05:21PM

"The Minister for Health has told the Dáil that the rate of transmission of Covid-19 remains stable, at between 0.5 and 0.8. He said the Irish people had now saved over 3,500 lives. However, he warned that up to 40 people a day are still being hospitalised with coronavirus."

So we've saved over 3500 lives but not good enough for any lifting of restrictions apparently

Getting sick of this we're doing so so good, R0 where it needs to be, hospital numbers falling even if slowly, ICU cases falling even if slowly but not good enough boys and girls

Here's another extension

NewRed2 · 30-04-2020 05:22PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

If your believe there is 100% compliance with isolating show me your evidence.

God almighty, look first off how do you want someone to prove that people are complying with regulations? Is it a certificate you're after? Now secondly nobody in any nation complies with anything 100%, there's always the 1%, so again, yeah you go looking for proof of something impossible and when that's not provided you win your little argument yeah? That's a wee bit sad imo but you go off and celebrate that little victory if it makes you happy. The rest of us can discuss it like adults.

When this all kicked off there was an advantage there for islands like us and also the UK. We could clearly see it all developing and it hadn't arrived on our door-step yet. We're surrounded by sea and had the chance to see it developing in other countries, many of them land-locked and it was an advantage there for us and the UK to stop travel into the country and/or quarantine anyone coming in and that way this never happens here or is easier to control.
We didn't. And in fact in the UK they got it even worse, they allowed sporting events to continue and the champions league match between Liverpool and Atleti Madrid brought thousands of Spanish over from a region known to be rife with Covid-19 and allowed them to mingle and spend a few days in Liverpool.
Surprise surprise, Liverpool had a massive spike in Covid 19 not long after, larger than most other areas in the uk per capita.
If travel had been prevented and the advantage of being an island had been used then UK and Ireland cold have fared so much better but that was warning number 1 ignored.
Then in Italy the elderly were being wiped out with this, they have large areas of elderly in some cities there living very close together, but again, warnings were there and ignored again. How are our nursing homes doing lately?
Then fine we did our lockdown, we were told we needed to do it to give the HSE time to get prepared. No arguments with that one. Then it got extended. Then it got extended again and guess what, they still haven't got testing up to speed. Meanwhile the public are getting the blame. Or at least we were until some journalists put it up to them that we weren't to blame after all.

So look, there's no such thing as 100% compliance but the public have been as close to it as you could wish to get. Lets call it 95% if that suits you, how about the Government and HSE's side of the bargain? I doubt any rational person would give them the same grade over all this.
How about letting us go back to work if we can comply with social distancing before it gets to the stage where we have no businesses to go back to and can't support our kids? Some of us are self employed and not having a holiday here.
It's not just about saving lives at this stage, it's about not ruining them as well.

polesheep · 30-04-2020 05:24PM

FishOnABike wrote: »

Who is at-risk? When you consider the percentage of the population overweight or obese, with high blood pressure, with asthma, taking immunosuppressive medication ( e.g. lupus, psoriasis or rheumatoid arthritis) and other medical conditions and those people's immediate household and close contacts, the number of people needing to be cocooned would be significant. Cocooning alone would not be practicable.

Without some level of restriction CoViD-19 would run rampant through the population.

We need to reduce SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in the population to a low level and eliminate any hotspot clusters and through appropriate levels of restrictions, effective monitoring and contact tracing and a rapid response, maintain it at that low level.

It's at a low enough level in the community now to start easing restrictions. Even if we get it to near zero, vulnerable people will still have to be particularly careful.
Not wishing to be cruel, but obesity is in people's own hands.

FishOnABike · 30-04-2020 05:28PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Reproduction rate is 0.5 so restrictions need to be removed

Then it shoots up to 4.5 - 5.0 again. When any restrictions do get removed, the reproduction rate will have to be maintained comfortably below 1.0 (to allow for lag in transmission, monitoring and response).

Any removal of restrictions will be gradual and cautious. It's not an on / off switch, restrictions, at some level, are going to be an ongoing part of all our lives for some time yet.

coastwatch · 30-04-2020 05:29PM

Good new from Denmark on their experience so far of easing restrictions,

"Denmark says partial reopening has not accelerated virus spread.
More news from Denmark, where authorities say the spread of Covid-19 has not accelerated since it became the first country outside of Asia to ease lockdown measures a fortnight ago."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/30/coronavirus-live-news-more-cases-of-covid-linked-syndrome-in-children-as-uk-deaths-top-spain-and-france?page=with:block-5eaae0678f08fcc89d8bb214#block-5eaae0678f08fcc89d8bb214

ixoy · 30-04-2020 05:30PM

For all the shaming, are other countries not also have people loosely following regulations? Particularly those which had somewhat looser ones like ours (so not Spain or Italy).

kenmm · 30-04-2020 05:33PM

Penfailed wrote: »

What would be the problem if it was introduced? Would you be upset that our fellas didn't think of it first?

If it is feasible and based on some sort of scientific approach, grand I have no problem.

I just find it funny that a lot of the policy seems to be - have a look at UK, implement similar, carry on..

Relaxation of restrictions Part II

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