Relaxation of restrictions Part II

hmmm

easypazz wrote: »

I can't see what has changed this morning.

People are getting scared because the full implication of this pandemic is setting in. Particularly if you run a business which is affected.

It's expected I guess, but we have to get through this stage. They are going to lash out in an attempt to find someone to blame - Government, HSE, whoever.

Only once we're through this can we begin to plan with how we are going to cope in an 80% economy.

polesheep

hmmm wrote: »

We can't create unlimited capacity in our hospitals. We have doubled our ICU capacity which is amazing in itself. It's our job as a people to reduce the numbers going to hospital, and that can only be done by reducing our social contact.

There was never any suggestion from anyone sensible that we could do this for a few weeks and then all go back to normal - this was a rumour spread by the #stayathome crowd who were taking photographs of people sitting on their own in parks, and lighting candles in their windows as if that would eliminate a virus.

Except for lifting some of the restrictions, this is life now until we get a vaccine and we need to get used to it.

Or until we get a reliable antibody test. I heard yesterday that a nursing home a relative lives in had all the residents and staff tested and that almost all are positive, yet only two are seriously ill and most are asymptomatic. The longer this goes on the more I become convinced that most of the population have had this virus with a mild or asymptomatic reaction.

As for the Independent and its clickbait articles. I suspect it's hanging on by a thread financially and I wouldn't believe a word it prints.

stephenjmcd

hmmm wrote: »

People are getting scared because the full implication of this pandemic is setting in. Particularly if you run a business which is affected.

It's expected I guess, but we have to get through this stage. They are going to lash out in an attempt to find someone to blame - Government, HSE, whoever.

Only once we're through this can we begin to plan with how we are going to cope in an 80% economy.

What an utter load of crap, its not the full implications.

People want clarity and leadership from those in charge, they want a roadmap with dates and targets and no more of the "at the right time" nonsense. We'll be at 15k tests a day in 3 weeks, we heard that 4 weeks ago too.

Of course people are going to lash out at them, they've been far from transparent on a multitude of issues.

polesheep

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Wait until Friday before we loose our ****.

Agree with you there, but if the rumour proved to be true, people will lose their ****.

What Username Guidelines

polesheep wrote: »

Or until we get a reliable antibody test. I heard yesterday that a nursing home a relative lives in had all the residents and staff tested and that almost all are positive, yet only two are seriously ill and most are asymptomatic. The longer this goes on the more I become convinced that most of the population have had this virus with a mild or asymptomatic reaction.

As for the Independent and its clickbait articles. I suspect it's hanging on by a thread financially and I wouldn't believe a word it prints.

Seems like things are leaning that way, interesting tweet about 'tip of the iceberg'

https://twitter.com/DrWilliamBehan/status/1255025938905083904?s=20

gozunda

Tenzor07 wrote: »

That sort of goodwill is running out for the lockdown measures, time to start treating the people of Ireland like adults!If we see someone about to run out in front of a Bus and get killed we will run and try and grab them back from being killed.
If we're told stay in lockdown for another 2 weeks at least with no clear plans then we're just left sat there getting annoyed, not knowing what do do other than being a healthy person confined to home.No one I know has been tested for Covid, only this week the Fire service personnel can get tests.
Nursing homes haven't got the PPE they need to function.Testing is still aiming for 100k tests, sure why not make it 200k tests, sounds just as aspirational!

Are you telling us that or trying to convince us of that diatribe ? Eitherway it doesnt wash. It's a minority who appear to whinging about sticking to the restrictions.

How the fek would the same have survived in Italy which has been under a complete lockdown since 9 March ie longervthan Ireland. Not even exercise allowed!

I'd agree that indeed some need to start acting like adults and cop themselves on. The same who apparently need to be 'rewarded' for good behaviour or wtte

This is a not about being bored or those trying to score cheap political hits. It's a pandemic. We haven't seen the carnage that other countries have experienced and thank fuk for that. Most people would like to keep it that way.

polesheep

the kelt wrote: »

That’s pretty much it in a nutshell, makes you wonder why there hiding the information from the meetings etc from the general public, it’s not as if the cmo has previously had issues with transparency in regards to cervical check scandal for example.

All the rhetoric about compliance with no it’s seem admission to failures in regards to contract tracing, testing and nursing homes etc, honesty won’t happen, it’s back covering time.

Ye know what if they came out and said we need 2 more weeks of lockdown because we as the people in charge still haven’t sorted out issues in regards to contact tracing and testing and we may have erred in how we handled the nursing home situation I’d actually applaud them for their honesty and say fair enough, it’s an unprecedented situation, it’s understandable.

But no we will have a few more rounds of blaming Johnny for going further than 2k to excercise and Mary for visiting family when she didn’t need to and another round of tut tut, let’s all pull together whilst we avoid any responsibility for our own failings.

Like I said be up front and honest with people and they will go the journey with you, that seems to have completely ended.

Forget about meetings and collective decision making. Holohan made a very telling comment yesterday when he said "I will decide closer to the time."

Enter name here

A pandemic like this will always win in a country like ours. Irish know better than anyone else and cant be told anything. Until we reach our ultimate goal of number 1 deaths per head of population the Irish wont be satisfied.

May as well cancel all restrictions and let Darwin's theory prevail.

boring accountant

I know more who’ve lost their jobs than have Coronavirus. The longer the restrictions continue the more job losses there will be and the less chance these people will have of finding new ones. We’re looking at 30-40% unemployed soon. The covid scheme is hiding that fact for now.

It’s absolutely unforgivable and inhumane to actively destroy a million livelihoods based on a half baked plan by a bunch of chancers who only 2 weeks ago were peddling fake news about masks.

gw80

Can someone explain to me the difference between this virus and the spanish flu?
Some people are talking about "life will never be the same again" but by a lot of accounts the spanish flu killed between 50 and 100 million people and there was no such talk of vaccines or viral drugs but yet it only lasted a year or so, after it killed all it was going to kill and the rest became immune,
What is the difference here bearing in mind this disease is less deadly than the spanish flu and we have the chance of a vaccine or viral drug on our side also,
I think this virus will just run its coarse whatever we do,
Except we have the hope of finding a vaccine or viral drug to help,
Life did return to normal after the spanosh flu

hmmm

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Seems like things are leaning that way, interesting tweet about 'tip of the iceberg'

The serology tests elsewhere in the world are showing an iceberg, but the fatality rate is coming in around .65%. That's nearly 30,000 deaths in Ireland. Flu kills less than a hundred in Ireland every year.

Still too high, particularly as it means severely overloaded hospitals if left unchecked.

Podge201

Spanish flu came from Spain.

gozunda

lord quackinton wrote: »

What people want Tuesday at minimum are
All hardware stores open
All construction sites open
2km bull**** scrapped - nonsense anyway
All offices open - work remote if possible
All schools open for leaving cert students
Road map listing dates for all other important milestones Any less and People will start breaking all restrictions

The 'people' no less lol

Will they really? You and your six demands.? Thankfully the majority of people are not idiots and are more than capable of separating party political type propaganda from the the reality of this pandemic.

Best of luck with the tuff guy approach. Hope it works out for you ...

easypazz

polesheep wrote: »

Forget about meetings and collective decision making. Holohan made a very telling comment yesterday when he said "I will decide closer to the time."

Dr Holohan warned the minister that to announce a review “could unnecessarily undermine public confidence in CervicalCheck” when there was “no evidence at this stage that there are quality or patient safety concerns with the CervicalCheck programme”.

The minister ignored Dr Holohan’s advice and announced a review that day.

Holohan seems to have a short memory.

Spencer Brown

hmmm wrote: »

The serology tests elsewhere in the world are showing an iceberg, but the fatality rate is coming in around .65%. That's nearly 30,000 deaths in Ireland. Flu kills less than a hundred in Ireland every year.

Still too high, particularly as it means severely overloaded hospitals if left unchecked.

It will be very interesting to see how excess deaths look at the end of the year, you'd expect that a sizeable proportion of that 0.65% would have died as a result of other diseases during that timeframe.

lord quackinton

Sweden
Chances of dying from corona .02%
- no lockdown

Uk
Chances of dying from corona .03%
- late to lockdown and Large population

Ireland
Chances of dying from corona .02%
- early to lockdown and small population.
Half of Sweden’s population

America
Chances of dying from corona .017%
- Donald trump has received world criticism and is held been personally accountable for the thousands of deaths

These percentages will be decreased when there is time to review the deaths
How many people passed away with the virus but not from the virus will decrease the percentages

Time to open up

FishOnABike

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is there any possibility now of the restriction on schools reopening being lifted? I actually thought the primary schools would reopen before the end of June. Now I am not so sure.

I would think not a hope of this happening.

The junior certificate has effectively been csncelled. Even managing a limited number of students in a tightly controlled environment to sit the leaving certificate isn't happening until the end of July / start of August. The detail around that, social distancing, pinch points at entrance and exits, supervision, timetable, transport, etc... still need to be worked out.

Some third level institutions have indicated they will be delaying the start of 2020/2021 term until the end of September with a changed lecturing format of a mixture of online and on campus lectures, first year intake deferred for another month and first term exams deferred to January.

There are reports of virus bearing micro droplets remaining suspended in the air for a considerable time in highly populated and poorly ventilated rooms. This, combined with the level of mixing in corridors before, between and after classes will mean that schools reopening will be well down the list.

I can't see it making any sense to reopen schools before the natural break of the Summer holidays.

boring accountant

hmmm wrote: »

The serology tests elsewhere in the world are showing an iceberg, but the fatality rate is coming in around .65%. That's nearly 30,000 deaths in Ireland. Flu kills less than a hundred in Ireland every year.

Still too high, particularly as it means severely overloaded hospitals if left unchecked.

Source for that claim?

Naos

Deleted User wrote: »

The Government dropped then ball on nursing homes, my own mother is locked up in one........so we all have to pay the price for this on the outside ? How does me going for a 10km walk increase numbers in Nursing Homes ?

You mentioned earlier you went for a 15km drive.

Let's say someone else that has Covid went on a 15km drive and stopped at a petrol station to fill up. This petrol station is beside your mothers nursing home in a community that has no known Covid cases.

That person infects the Petrol Station employee and a Carer who is getting in the station picking up something for lunch. That Carer then brings it back into the nursing home and it infects your mother.

That's why there's a 2km limit.

KrustyUCC

It seems a pattern now with the government

Have restrictions up to a certain date

Fly kites and leak to journalists in last week

Narrative of we're doing so so well, flattening the curve, saving lives, hospital admissions down, ICU numbers down, R0 number below 1 but boys and girls the numbers are not where they need to be

Here's another 2-3 weeks

No seeing friends, family, those in relationships

Repeat the cycle in 2-3 weeks time

The plan or road map better be incredibly detailed on Friday

They're had almost 2 months to come up with it at this stage

easypazz

hmmm wrote: »

The serology tests elsewhere in the world are showing an iceberg, but the fatality rate is coming in around .65%. That's nearly 30,000 deaths in Ireland. Flu kills less than a hundred in Ireland every year.

Still too high, particularly as it means severely overloaded hospitals if left unchecked.

90% are over 65 though. Many more have a known underlying condition. Put solid protective measures in place for those and our worst case scenario death rate, assuming everybody gets it is much lower.

Anybody concerned about themselves can continue to exercise social distancing etc.

Spread over a number of years we could have a very manageable level of illness.

Stark

Naos wrote: »

You mentioned earlier you went for a 15km drive.

Let's say someone else that has Covid went on a 15km drive and stopped at a petrol station to fill up. This petrol station is beside your mothers nursing home in a community that has no known Covid cases.

That person infects the Petrol Station employee and a Carer who is getting in the station picking up something for lunch. That Carer then brings it back into the nursing home and it infects your mother.

That's why there's a 2km limit.

No that's not why there's a 2km limit. Maybe that's a benefit that emerges from it but people are making up narratives to justify the original policy decision.

It was a kneejerk response to people "crowding beauty spots". Nothing more.

SusanC10

FishOnABike wrote: »

I would think not a hope of this happening.

The junior certificate has effectively been csncelled. Even managing a limited number of students in a tightly controlled environment to sit the leaving certificate isn't happening until the end of July / start of August. The detail around that, social distancing, pinch points at entrance and exits, supervision, timetable, transport, etc... still need to be worked out.

Some third level institutions have indicated they will be delaying the start of 2020/2021 term until the end of September with a changed lecturing format of a mixture of online and on campus lectures, first year intake deferred for another month and first term exams deferred to January.

There are reports of virus bearing micro droplets remaining suspended in the air for a considerable time in highly populated and poorly ventilated rooms. This, combined with the level of mixing in corridors before, between and after classes will mean that schools reopening will be well down the list.

I can't see it making any sense to reopen schools before the natural break of the Summer holidays.

Agreed.

Dravokivich

Stark wrote: »

No that's not why there's a 2km limit. People are making up narratives to justify it.

It was a kneejerk response to people "crowding beauty spots". Nothing more.

Yeah, like all those beauty spots in Wuhan, Lombardo, Barcelona...

It's not like this is some sort of highly transmitable desease we are unable to fight off or anything. We need to keep the beauty spots, clear...

thebaz

I supported the government pretty much up to now - the people of Ireland have respnded extremly well, the curve has been flattened , the 100,000 deaths have not happened , the medical services have not been over-run, and the reward to the nation is more lockdown for the nation - when the problem is in the Nursing homes, which was managed terribly - Had enogh now from our Nanny state controlled by the unelected Dr. Tony and co at the HSE and WHO - ther are other more serious problems crippling our broken society.

is_that_so

boring accountant wrote: »

Source for that claim?

It's normally 200-500 deaths a year.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/health/immunisation/pubinfo/adult/fluva/

But 101 deaths in 2020 season by March.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/influenza/seasonalinfluenza/surveillance/influenzasurveillancereports/20192020season/Influenza_Surveillance_Report_Week%2010_%202020.pdf

hmmm

easypazz wrote: »

90% are over 65 though. Many more have a known underlying condition. Put solid protective measures in place for those and our worst case scenario death rate, assuming everybody gets it is much lower.

Anybody concerned about themselves can continue to exercise social distancing etc.

Spread over a number of years we could have a very manageable level of illness.

Perhaps, but the Imperial modelling paper presented to the UK government modeled restrictions of just isolating the vulnerable and it still led to an overload of hospital and ICU capacity. That's why the UK reversed course and instituted a lockdown themselves.

There's no easy answer here - there will be afterwards in hindsight, but right now we don't know enough about the disease.

(edit) Paper available here - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

"However, this “optimal” mitigation scenario would still result in an 8-fold higher peak demand on critical care beds over and above the available surge capacity in both GB and the US. "

batman_oh

Naos wrote: »

You mentioned earlier you went for a 15km drive.

Let's say someone else that has Covid went on a 15km drive and stopped at a petrol station to fill up. This petrol station is beside your mothers nursing home in a community that has no known Covid cases.

That person infects the Petrol Station employee and a Carer who is getting in the station picking up something for lunch. That Carer then brings it back into the nursing home and it infects your mother.

That's why there's a 2km limit.

So only people from outside 2km can spread it? Not the ones that the petrol stations are open for or the people queuing up for shopping or passing hundreds of others on a walk because they are all stuck within 2km in heavily populated areas?

yosemitesam1

gw80 wrote: »

Can someone explain to me the difference between this virus and the spanish flu?
Some people are talking about "life will never be the same again" but by a lot of accounts the spanish flu killed between 50 and 100 million people and there was no such talk of vaccines or viral drugs but yet it only lasted a year or so, after it killed all it was going to kill and the rest became immune,
What is the difference here bearing in mind this disease is less deadly than the spanish flu and we have the chance of a vaccine or viral drug on our side also,
I think this virus will just run its coarse whatever we do,
Except we have the hope of finding a vaccine or viral drug to help,
Life did return to normal after the spanosh flu

If left to run its course, this coronavirus will just end up behaving like all the other endemic coronavirus strains.
They can all make a small minority very sick but have always gone pretty much unnoticed even though they kill every year.

gozunda

lord quackinton wrote: »

Sweden
Chances of dying from corona .02%
- no lockdown

Uk
Chances of dying from corona .03%
- late to lockdown and Large population

Ireland
Chances of dying from corona .02%
- early to lockdown and small population.
Half of Sweden’s population

America
Chances of dying from corona .017%
- Donald trump has received world criticism and is held been personally accountable for the thousands of deaths

These percentages will be decreased when there is time to review the deaths
How many people passed away with the virus but not from the virus will decrease the percentages

Time to open up

The fact that Sweden and the UK were only counting deaths in hospitals isnt of concern for you and your imaginary league table? Or that the US has no uniform system for reporting coronavirus-related deaths?

You might want to go on the lash or whatever. Thankfully you are not in charge ..

Only in a year from now can we know if the Swedish approach has been proven right,"

Johan Giesecke, the former Swedish state epidemiologist and current advisor to the World Health Organization

As for calculating death figures. This may interest you.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html