CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Funsterdelux

italodisco wrote: »

I've a 5 year old daughter with a rather personal medical issue, not major but not something to let go on and on.
Doctor told us to come down to their surgery on Thursday, seem to think it 'should' be fine.

Am I off my head going there with her?

I'm really worried about it but I also don't want this medical issue to worsen.

GPs are not letting coronavirus patients into surgeries.

cameramonkey

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/breakthrough-led-by-cork-scientists-develops-key-chemical-and-helps-avert-potential-covid-19-testing-crisis-992708.html

ShineOn7

fritzelly wrote: »

Order is going to be signed this evening by Harris for more gardai powers

Insider knowledge?

I'm all for this. Bring on a Dubai style full on lockdown.

What we have right now is a "lockdown"

Poorside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Insider knowledge?

I'm all for this. Bring on a Dubai style full on lockdown.

What we have right now is a "lockdown"

He just said it on RTE one.

fritzelly

Prime Time - this person doesn't want to be identified
Shame you fecked up disguising his voice

statesaver

Lesnar Defender wrote: »

Fine Gael becoming more authoritarian by the day.

Blueshirts

BanditLuke

fritzelly wrote: »

Order is going to be signed this evening by Harris for more gardai powers

Cant say I'm unhappy - have at it Gemma

Very happy with that. Desperately needed to put the self entitled asshats back in their place.

ShineOn7

Poorside wrote: »

He just said it on RTE one.

Lol sorry.

Long day.

saabsaab

threeball wrote: »

You might find your car getting the once over if you try to pull a fast one. More than one way to skin a cat. Did you have a drink today sir.

Yep, is you tax, NCT, insurance displayed properly and up to date? Show me your Drivers Licence please? Also tyres.


Sec 30 allows a Garda to stop and interrogate anyone whom the Garda suspects of having committed or being about to commit an offence under the 1939 Act or an offence scheduled for the purposes of the Act. (There are a number of offences listed as being scheduled offences, such as, firearms offences and explosive offences). This gives the Gardaí the power to stop a suspect in a public place. It also gives them the power to stop any vehicle, or any ship, boat or other vessel for the purposes of questioning and searching, and if necessary, arresting the suspect.

take everything

That disguised voice on Primetime is ridiculous. Can't make out a word

Today there were 36 deaths and 345 new cases confirmed in Ireland for a total of 5709 known cases



Looking at the numbers for the last few days shows we are now steadily trending downwards in terms of r value. The last 7 days show an average value of 1.085. For context the 7 days prior to that had a value of 1.136.



We are still definitely going to break 10,000 cases within the next 14 days with my guess being that we'll cross that mark on the 17th April, maybe the 18th, if the r value continues its current trajectory.



The difference between the drop in the value can be best seen in the volume of daily reported cases, projected out for the next 2 weeks at the r values indicated below.



Finally, I pulled together data from several countries to map out how we are doing in comparison to others up to yesterday. All countries mapped out below have somewhat started to stabilise based on the reported numbers, however there are a silly amount of caveats with the numbers being reported.



To sum up, for Ireland, we are making headway and going in the right direction, albeit at a slow and steady pace. Given the stricter measures are showing to have an effect I think you can expect these measures to remain for quite some time. Best case scenario I would say, is Ireland moving to a South Korean model of containment once the daily case volume drops below a certain level, my guess would be 10 days of double digit case numbers. Its difficult to predict when that might be based on the current situation

What is this "r value"?

R0 is pronounced “R naught.” It’s a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.

R0 tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven’t been vaccinated. If a disease has an R0 of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people, as long as no one has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to it in their community.

What do R0 values mean?
Three possibilities exist for the potential spread or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:

• If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
• If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
• If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will spread between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.

Importantly, a disease’s R0 value only applies when everyone in a population is completely vulnerable to the disease. This means:

• no one has been vaccinated
• no one has had the disease before
• there’s no way to control the spread of the disease

Spanish Eyes

Lesnar Defender wrote: »

Fine Gael becoming more authoritarian by the day.

Trying to get a rise there? They have to be because idiots will be idiots and they know this.

They are implementing this to protect the majority from the minority of idiots. But you know that anyway.

Funsterdelux

fritzelly wrote: »

Prime Time - this person doesn't want to be identified
Shame you fecked up disguising his voice

Its terrible, the sound man must be in isolation

Seamai

Minnie Snuggles wrote: »

I have heard that farmers have thousands of litres of pig slurry to be spread, enjoy:D:D:D

And boy does that stuff stink.

Vivienne23

Not sure why Simon Harris keeps referring to working hard staying at home , it’s not hard just do it ! If people haven’t got the message by now they never will ,

If the government lifted restrictions tomoro everywhere would be full , and then once they got the virus would blame the government

People should just use there brains and not be applauded for staying at home ffs

fritzelly

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Its terrible, the sound man must be in isolation

Cannot understand why it wasn't already disguised and checked (or an actor) - you can clearly hear his voice perfectly

Strumms

I’d rather some Gardai, catch a group of 5 guys and girls hanging about on a beach, give them a roaring bollocking, throw in a couple of expletives and suggest their next chat could be behind bars. Offer them a good view into the back of their van... They go home, tell family, who tell them, “ look ok, stay put, this is serious, Gardai are stressed they have enough to be doing.” Word gets around on social media, job done....

A lot better than..

“ lads, glorious day and all but we are supposed to ask you to head home, if the inspector sees you we’ll be getting it, so finish your ice cream and be off with yas, thanks.”

This is about saving lives, if the post Celtic tiger Ireland has told us anything it’s that there are too many selfish, self entitled cünts there... we are seeing already the potential for them risking the health and wellbeing of the country of all of us...

Poorside

Vivienne23 wrote: »

Not sure why Simon Harris keeps referring to working hard staying at home , it’s not hard just do it ! If people haven’t got the message by now they never will ,

If the government lifted restrictions tomoro everywhere would be full , and then once they got the virus would blame the government

People should just use there brains and not be applauded for staying at home ffs

People haven't got it, 90% of people have, but there's a certain cohort that think they're special and act accordingly, idiots.

retro:electro

fritzelly wrote: »

Prime Time - this person doesn't want to be identified
Shame you fecked up disguising his voice

“John was that you on Prime Time last night ya rap”

stephenjmcd

Garda commissioner requested the full powers this evening, discussed with attorney general and they'll be signed tonight.

Gardai will now be able to force someone to return home and stay there. Failure to comply can now lead to arrest.

Haven't seen a mention of fines. They've said they hope to use it sparingly

fritzelly

Still havent received that Covid booklet from the government - anyone else waiting?
How am I supposed to know what to do...

ShineOn7

Deleted User wrote: »

To sum up, for Ireland, we are making headway and going in the right direction, albeit at a slow and steady pace. Given the stricter measures are showing to have an effect I think you can expect these measures to remain for quite some time. Best case scenario I would say, is Ireland moving to a South Korean model of containment once the daily case volume drops below a certain level, my guess would be 10 days of double digit case numbers. Its difficult to predict when that might be based on the current situation

Great post, thanks

screamer

Vivienne23 wrote: »

Not sure why Simon Harris keeps referring to working hard staying at home , it’s not hard just do it ! If people haven’t got the message by now they never will ,

If the government lifted restrictions tomoro everywhere would be full , and then once they got the virus would blame the government

People should just use there brains and not be applauded for staying at home ffs

I totally disagree, staying at home is hard if you are used to being up and about and moving. It might be easier if you’re used to lounging around. Most people I talk to are bored, fed up and a bit stressed being stuck at home with kids and nowhere to bring them to relieve the tedium, but obey the rules as they know they have to. We rightly should acknowledge that, and empathise with people rather than telling them to suck it up......

rossie1977

5pm this evening lockdown in Wuhan was lifted. People can now travel outside the city for first time since January 23rd

threeball

threeball wrote: »

You might find your car getting the once over if you try to pull a fast one. More than one way to skin a cat. Did you have a drink today sir.

And then what? Step out of the car? Blow into this bag? I am arresting and handcuffing you...?

I really hate clichés but the Gaurds are between a rock and a hard place.
They can't do any of those things.

statesaver

fritzelly wrote: »

Still havent received that Covid booklet from the government - anyone else waiting?
How am I supposed to know what to do...

Got it today but still haven't looked at it.

Got the Postcards as well.

Greentopia

plodder wrote: »

I found another page about BCG from the NHS, which says some of the protection "may even last for 60 years".

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vaccinations/bcg-tb-vaccine-questions-answers/

It might not stop you getting TB after 30-40 years, but there could be some residual benefit that makes this Covid disease less severe.

I was wondering about this following on from reading the Irish Times article saying it may perhaps protect against C-19, and have other health benefits like reduced respiratory infections, and decreases mortality in bladder cancer patients.

Anyone know if there's any other respected sources that could provide more evidence of how long the benefits of BCG last? and if you already got the vaccine as a child as I did, if boosters would be needed to continue its stated protective effects.

Funsterdelux

fritzelly wrote: »

Still havent received that Covid booklet from the government - anyone else waiting?
How am I supposed to know what to do...

Ask your postperson, i bet you still got those special offers from supervalu

BanditLuke

Lesnar Defender wrote: »

Fine Gael becoming more authoritarian by the day.

I'd be the last person to defend FG but will you ever feck off with that rubbish. They are doing their best just like the majority of us. These powers are needed because we have a certain percentage of absolute idiots who aren't capable of being team players.

Just Saying

cameramonkey wrote: »

Of course I understand. We know that everyday they release the amount of people who test positive that is known by everyone. I made no comment on those results my comment is about the lack of total laboratory results published. This they only do once a week. I have tried to explain this and have asked you and you failed to answer, how many total laboratory results have been completed at HSE labs this week? Do you understand the question? Not swabbed actual labs results.

Ok


I understand this completely. So we need to take this 6000 results figure from the total number of result to get the number of tests the HSE processed through their labs. So the Germans returned 6000 results and the HSE added this to their number. By their own numbers the HSE are then responsible for 6,271 test last week or approx 895 per day. Do you understand this? If you think my numbers are incorrect can you give me what you think the correct HSE completed in their labs this week.


We all know how the date is given out. I don't know why you are trying to confuse matters with talking about uncompleted test numbers versus completed labs tests numbers. I have only ever talked about completed test numbers and that is the data that the HSE release once a week. They never release any other data on overall test numbers. It is really not difficult to understand.
My point all along is that the HSE is hyping their ability to run tests through the labs and constantly under achieving. You seem to think I have erred with the numbers maybe I have but can you now tell me how many completed tests results went through the HSE labs last week? Do you understand my question?

With your line and tone and asking me do I understand repeatedly you are highlighting your own lack of understanding.

I'll be as brief as I can.I am not trying to confuse anything.I am just trying to highlight the backlog that had arisen and how it occured

The HSE as I have stated do NOT give out anywhere the exact number of test results they have completed per day or per week.

They give the amount of tests that have been completed...I.e.swabbed at test centres/hospitals.In the last week these TESTS totalled just over 12000.

It is now you are making the mistake.From this figure you are deducting the RESULTS received from the German labs of 6000 and deducting then that the HSE labs only provided 6000 RESULTS.

As I have repeatedly stated these German lab RESULTS were from TESTS done over a period of approximately 14 days and were the backlog of RESULTS from TESTS which had been included in weekly TEST figures in previous weeks.

To sum up simply owing to the time lag from TESTS to RESULTS you cannot deduct German RESULTS from weekly Irish TEST numbers and deduce that the difference is the weekly Irish RESULTS
Please reread my numerous replies to you in light of the above.If you cannot understand I really can do no more for you.I have been more than patient.