What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

salonfire

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Yup, the working world is ****e for many

Ask yourself then, why are people so concerned about job losses and businesses closing if so many found working so ****e?

Surely people would be cheering on job losses but I don't see any of that, do you?

People like you are using this pandemic to justify your nonsensical notions and drawing conclusions where none exist.

never_mind

Apologies if this has been discussed but I wonder will the govt decide to u-turn on the public stability agreement? Public and civil servants are due a 2% salary increase in Oct 2020.

salonfire

never_mind wrote: »

Apologies if this has been discussed but I wonder will the govt decide to u-turn on the public stability agreement? Public and civil servants are due a 2% salary increase in Oct 2020.

They can go sing for the 2% salary increase.

There'll be an emergency budget as soon as the new Govt is formed with sweeping cuts in order to shore up the Health & Welfare budgets.

never_mind

salonfire wrote: »

They can go sing for the 2% salary increase.

There'll be an emergency budget as soon as the new Govt is formed with sweeping cuts in order to shore up the Health & Welfare budgets.

They’d be lucky to get a 2% deduction.

Wanderer78

salonfire wrote:

Ask yourself then, why are people so concerned about job losses and businesses closing if so many found working so ****e?

Oh I don't know, maybe they have outstanding debts such as a mortgage and dependants etc

Irish_peppa

Maybe im looking at this too simplistically but I hear a lot of people saying a lot of business and companies simply wont re-open after this crisis.
If you have a small SME and the government will pay you indefinitely 70% of your staff wages. Also you explain to your staff that you cant afford obviously to top it up as no money coming in. I doubt many staff would hold the gun to the employers head and say no way you make up the 30% difference or im outta here! Option A) Take Government work subsidy or Go to jobseekers payment. I know which one I would take!
Why would the company go out of business?
Im sure yes they will owe suppliers and general costs but I would be surprised if suppliers and landlords also dont make allowances here. As everyone is in the same boat. Is it not more like a pause button on the business albeit it a very disruptive one? What would be the reasoning that certain companies wouldnt open after a pause. For instance if you had received a container of product the week before this all kicked off its not like the supplier will not offer some forebearance and work out a structured repayment scheme if you were shut down for 4 months.
Also I would take into account that there will be a reccession / depression but surely the company would open for a few months to see if they could survive. Why would they be allready be accepting defeat?

https://www.gov.ie/en/service/578596-covid-19-wage-subsidy/

shnaek

I would expect that changes that were going to happen anyway, perhaps over 5-10 years, will now happen much quicker.
There will be a rush to automation.
There will be a big increase in remote working.
There may be a move towards UBI.
America will bring home much of its manufacturing industry.
More online meetings and meet-ups.
Quicker takeup of VR.
More home based (over the internet) third level degrees at much lower cost (particularly in the US)
The death of the town\city centre and a huge increase in online shopping. City centres will become places to go for coffee\drinks and food.
There will be a much weaker economy in the short term - the countries that adapt quickest to the new reality will do much better in the long term.
But they are just like, my opinions, man.

Zenify

Irish_peppa wrote: »

Maybe im looking at this too simplistically but I hear a lot of people saying a lot of business and companies simply wont re-open after this crisis.
If you have a small SME and the government will pay you indefinitely 70% of your staff wages. Also you explain to your staff that you cant afford obviously to top it up as no money coming in. I doubt many staff would hold the gun to the employers head and say no way you make up the 30% difference or im outta here! Option A) Take Government work subsidy or Go to jobseekers payment. I know which one I would take!
Why would the company go out of business?
Im sure yes they will owe suppliers and general costs but I would be surprised if suppliers and landlords also dont make allowances here. As everyone is in the same boat. Is it not more like a pause button on the business albeit it a very disruptive one? What would be the reasoning that certain companies wouldnt open after a pause. For instance if you had received a container of product the week before this all kicked off its not like the supplier will not offer some forebearance and work out a structured repayment scheme if you were shut down for 4 months.
Also I would take into account that there will be a reccession / depression but surely the company would open for a few months to see if they could survive. Why would they be allready be accepting defeat?

https://www.gov.ie/en/service/578596-covid-19-wage-subsidy/

Companies that have very high fixed costs.

salonfire

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Oh I don't know, maybe they have outstanding debts such as a mortgage and dependants etc

Really? So even though working life is so ****e people still take on debt and have children?

Or maybe not all people are feckless and lazy and are willing to work.

This pandemic does not give you a platform to peddle your guff about how down trodden we all are.

Wanderer78

salonfire wrote: »

Really? So even though working life is so ****e people still take on debt and have children?

Or maybe not all people are feckless and lazy and are willing to work.

This pandemic does not give you a platform to peddle your guff about how down trodden we all are.

this is not what im saying, im saying some people are deeply unhappy with their working conditions, they simply cannot walk away from their crap jobs for various reasons in life, as explained, i completely agree with anthropologist david graeber, some jobs are simply bull**** jobs, that simply make people unhappy and do not truly serve society

please explain this statement, "Or maybe not all people are feckless and lazy and are willing to work"

Irish_peppa

Irish_peppa wrote: »

Maybe im looking at this too simplistically but I hear a lot of people saying a lot of business and companies simply wont re-open after this crisis.
If you have a small SME and the government will pay you indefinitely 70% of your staff wages. Also you explain to your staff that you cant afford obviously to top it up as no money coming in. I doubt many staff would hold the gun to the employers head and say no way you make up the 30% difference or im outta here! Option A) Take Government work subsidy or Go to jobseekers payment. I know which one I would take!
Why would the company go out of business?


https://www.gov.ie/en/service/578596-covid-19-wage-subsidy/

Theres a lot of factors and it depends on the company type- for example:

1. A fashion ladies clothes shop- they haven't sold off last seasons goods, they need cash for this seasons goods and to pay rates, tax, VAT, other costs etc-, supply lines might be affected for these new season lines and also, shoppers overall will be down post-release from lock-down- so all and all, what would you do, especially if a threat of a further lockdown in Q3 or Q4 were to be a distinct possibility?

2. The Coffee shop- re-set up costs not as significant as above but still reliant on paying staff, rates, rent, tax etc - and then you have to deal with less footfall, threat of re-closure - would you open?

It's not that simple- staying shut might be the best worst option for many SME's in the medium term.

Dr. Bre

Will there be any money for climate ?

greenfield21

.

patnor1011

Dr. Bre wrote: »

Will there be any money for climate ?

With air and vehicular traffic pretty much nonexistent and severely reduced for a number of years to come there is no need for more money.
In fact this situation did more for "climate" than any activist could ever dream of achieving in a lifetime.

LiquidZeb

patnor1011 wrote: »

With air and vehicular traffic pretty much nonexistent and severely reduced for a number of years to come there is no need for more money.
In fact this situation did more for "climate" than any activist could ever dream of achieving in a lifetime.

I think years to come is a bit of an overstatement there tbh.

patnor1011

Sorry, I wanted to be optimistic. I think that it will be many years to come actually.
But people are strong and we eventually get over it. It will take some time and many things will never be the same but we will rebuild and prosper again.

LiquidZeb

patnor1011 wrote: »

Sorry, I wanted to be optimistic. I think that it will be many years to come actually.
But people are strong and we eventually get over it. It will take some time and many things will never be the same but we will rebuild and prosper again.

Right get on to the IMF with what you think I'm sure they're dying to know.

Snow Garden

The Q1 financial reports will be interesting this week. Some are already out and sound very pessimistic around revenues and Q2 customer spend.
We are only 4 weeks in and yet cost cutting is already in planning for companies to allay Q2 revenue reductions. Risk of bad debts and delayed payments as solvency/cashflow becomes an issue.

brickster69

A barrel of oil now costs less than a small bottle of Coke

Rufeo

brickster69 wrote: »

A barrel of oil now costs less than a small bottle of Coke

Jayz, I must buy some oil.

Sierra Oscar

salonfire wrote: »

They can go sing for the 2% salary increase.

There'll be an emergency budget as soon as the new Govt is formed with sweeping cuts in order to shore up the Health & Welfare budgets.

Judging by the commentary coming out of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil today it looks like austerity is not on the cards. We will be borrowing our way out of this economic downturn. Not all that surprising either. There will be a EU wide stimulus programme, perhaps the largest since the second world war. Germany is softening up to the idea of Eurobonds.

People really need to get away from the simple analysis of viewing this through the response to the 2008 - 2009 financial crisis. The makeup of the entire financial system in the EU has been altered to prevent a repeat of the need to deal with a flash financial crisis through the use of austerity alone. For starters, the European Stability Mechanism is now available to countries going through financial distress. It's an entirely changed landscape from 2008. Every single state in the EU is also going through the same financial distress currently, including Germany. It's far more likely we will get an EU wide response as a result. That'll probably manifest itself through the emergence of a specific long term bond (maybe even 100 year ones) to deal with this crisis. Instead of austerity we will probably see Eurobond borrowing used to shore up the social welfare system alongside a huge investment in infrastructure to stimulate the economy, possibly the largest we have seen in decades.

SEPT 23 1989

They can't do austerity again after this

The people did nothing wrong from the top of society to the bottom

the future government knows it and the EU knows it

Try and throw it back on the people and see what happens

Snow Garden

Yeah I think we will need to borrow 20-30 billion this year to pay for the lockdown associated welfare but we will need austerity down the line to start balancing the budget in 2021.

addaword

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

They can't do austerity again after this

The people did nothing wrong from the top of society to the bottom

the future government knows it and the EU knows it

Try and throw it back on the people and see what happens

Denial is the first stage. T'was the same in 2007 too. People said we were in for a soft landing. That the construction sector was too important to the economy for the government to let it fail.

Since 2007 we quadrupled our government nation debt, give or take, I think. Who can we borrow from now, every western country is in trouble. Oh I know, the Chinese? Again?

AlmightyCushion

brickster69 wrote: »

A barrel of oil now costs less than a small bottle of Coke

Not as tasty though.

Roger_007

brickster69 wrote: »

A barrel of oil now costs less than a small bottle of Coke

The price at the pumps hasn’t come down though...........I got a fill today and it cost me three toilet rolls.

Wanderer78

Snow Garden wrote:

Yeah I think we will need to borrow 20-30 billion this year to pay for the lockdown associated welfare but we will need austerity down the line to start balancing the budget in 2021.

Ffs, will conservatives ever let this one go, austerity never ever works, there's plenty of research behind this, one of the reasons why we re struggling with the current situation is related to previous cuts in spending. We ve monetized most of our debts, it's a critical component of our money supply, reduce it, and reduce our money supply, hence our ability to grow our way out of a deflationary period such as now. It's effectively dangerous to start balancing the books now, as it will cause futher compression of the economy, and slowing our recovery. Neoclassical economics is done, it's a bust!

Wanderer78

addaword wrote:

Since 2007 we quadrupled our government nation debt, give or take, I think. Who can we borrow from now, every western country is in trouble. Oh I know, the Chinese? Again?

Central banks simply create the money on their books in the form of bonds, this is what they have been doing, since forever, this is what they're doing now. This is perfectly fine, provided governments service these loans, and at negative rates, governments would be stupid not to take on these loans, and put them to good use for long term investments such as infrastructure spending etc, this will stimulate the economy, speeding up recovery. If the EU doesn't do this, and returns to the same old story of balancing budgets and austerity, it ll probably collapse

Xertz

If it collapsed I guess it’s back to the 1950s for most of us. Hopefully it isn’t going to go that way.

I’m really starting to feel that I should have emigrated to New Zealand or, to a lesser degree Australia.

The US is a mess, the UK is a mess and the EU will probably go into fiscal rectitude mode with various conservative Dutch, Germans and others refusinh to budge until we fall off a cliff.

Really starting to feel very stressed by everything. Can’t sleep properly or anything anymore.

Just feel sick all the time. I sleep, have nightmares wake - everyone I talk to has discussions about Coronavirus all the time. I try to chill out and it just doesn’t work. The 2km walk thing is also just starting to drive me crazy and I don’t want to be in supermarkets or anywhere - having to wash groceries, clean cartons of milk with alcohol wipes.

Whole thing is just a total mess. Can’t believe things have become this bad.

Wanderer78

Xertz wrote:

Really starting to feel very stressed by everything. Can’t sleep properly or anything anymore. Just feel sick all the time.

I have faith that we ll pull it together in the end, but as you said, the more conservative elements of the EU will dig their heels in (idiots), but I suspect, if things turn really ugly economically, and the EU starts to seriously fracture, these conservative elements will bite their lips, and accept the changes, or face possible collapse. Its gonna be fascinating to watch, although scary