What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

road_high

What do I think the economy will look like in 6 months? Well I know for a fact there is going to be massive ongoing expenditure demand on social services especially welfare and health spending.
How long that can keep going is anyone’s guess cos Pascal sure as hell isnt telling us

bobbyy gee

flaten soon it will be out of control
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/covid-19-dublin-lockdown-nphet-22704649

PommieBast

bloopy wrote: »

What is coming is a potential apocalypse for small to medium sized indigenous businesses. Large entities will be damaged but have the resources to possibly absorb the damage.

Of course. For most of them a 5-10% dip in turnover would sink them, but with lockdowns many are looking at 40-100% drops.


As Labour found out in in 2016 there's absolutely no credit in telling the population economic realities.

Cal04

Zebra3 wrote: »

Ulster Bank for one look like they are finished.

What happens if your money is in Ulster bank

Thierry12

Zebra3 wrote: »

Ulster Bank for one look like they are finished.

Everyone is going to feel it

Heard a bloodbath coming from Dell group

Redundancies at Dell, EMC, Vmware, 10% minimum they are looking for Q3 and more planned in Q4

Stryker Cork and Limerick letting go, GE healthcare redundancies, Intel big trouble

Tech and pharma companies people thought were safe from this mess are not

I only know of those as family and friends there

Intel Leixlip supposedly in big big trouble, got caught on the hop with laptop cpu chip demand in March and couldnt fill orders for likes of Dell

Those companies who are mostly exclusively Intel are looking elsewhere now and Intel cant get processing node down below 10/12nm, Taiwanese etc are getting to 5nm, Intel Ireland wont manufacture here soon

We are goosed in Ireland

Closing down hospitality for weeks in Dublin now is the final nail

https://www.arnnet.com.au/article/682981/dell-undertakes-further-redundancies/

road_high

Thierry12 wrote: »

Everyone is going to feel it

Heard a bloodbath coming from Dell group

Redundancies at Dell, EMC, Vmware, 10% minimum they are looking for Q3 and more planned in Q4

Stryker Cork and Limerick letting go, GE healthcare redundancies, Intel big trouble

Tech and pharma companies people thought were safe from this mess are not

I only know of those as family and friends there

Intel Leixlip supposedly in big big trouble, got caught on the hop with laptop cpu chip demand in March and couldnt fill orders for likes of Dell

Those companies who are mostly exclusively Intel are looking elsewhere now and Intel cant get processing node down below 10/12nm, Taiwanese etc are getting to 5nm, Intel Ireland wont manufacture here soon

We are goosed in Ireland

Closing down hospitality for weeks in Dublin now is the final nail

https://www.arnnet.com.au/article/682981/dell-undertakes-further-redundancies/

Shocked at some of the companies you listed there as possible redundancies?

road_high

I did hear of a Fintch company in Kilkenny that let go about 30 graduates rather than the hassle of trying to sort them working from home etc. Was easier just to let them go.
Terrible time to be a graduate

Hawthorn Tree

I am also hearing of many companies planning redundancies. Large ones that require consultation. They include tech and medtech companies. The govt seem to be ignoring it. The plan is simply to borrow.

road_high

I hear they’re recruiting Covid testers...neighbour in the HSE was telling me ...€22k. Likely the only growth area the country will see and guaranteed to go on for a very long time!

Thierry12

road_high wrote: »

Shocked at some of the companies you listed there as possible redundancies?

At least we get a bit of notice

One of my friends had a colleague in the States on a teams call yesterday and was told to finish up that day

Q3 is up this month and those large companies have to make books look good

They'll probably hire agency in Q4 to replace some lost and then end of Q4 more redundancies for permanent staff

I was surprised too

road_high

Thierry12 wrote: »

At least we get a bit of notice

One of my friends had a colleague in the States on a teams call yesterday and was told to finish up that day

Q3 is up this month and those large companies have to make books look good

They'll probably hire agency in Q4 to replace some lost and then end of Q4 more redundancies for permanent staff

I was surprised too

I know they don’t show any mercy at least here there is some protection re notice and redundancy but that’s little use to most people now.
Bound to be a trickle effect up...if there’s no conferences there is less demand for that kind of tech...no concerts ditto...no industry operates in a vacuum

Thierry12

road_high wrote: »

I know they don’t show any mercy at least here there is some protection re notice and redundancy but that’s little use to most people now.
Bound to be a trickle effect up...if there’s no conferences there is less demand for that kind of tech...no concerts ditto...no industry operates in a vacuum

Very true

Many people think they are in a vacuum, especially alot of WFH users here thinking everything will be grand and have no idea what's coming

In IT myself and know I will be feeling hurt at somepoint, will be a Monday I won't be needed soon

Happydays2020

The history of this period and giving the keys to the country to a group of medics will not be looked on favourably.

Zebra3

It all looks a bit like the FAI under Delaney.

NIMAN

Thierry12 wrote: »

Everyone is going to feel it

Heard a bloodbath coming from Dell group

Redundancies at Dell, EMC, Vmware, 10% minimum they are looking for Q3 and more planned in Q4

Stryker Cork and Limerick letting go, GE healthcare redundancies, Intel big trouble

Tech and pharma companies people thought were safe from this mess are not

I only know of those as family and friends there

Intel Leixlip supposedly in big big trouble, got caught on the hop with laptop cpu chip demand in March and couldnt fill orders for likes of Dell

Those companies who are mostly exclusively Intel are looking elsewhere now and Intel cant get processing node down below 10/12nm, Taiwanese etc are getting to 5nm, Intel Ireland wont manufacture here soon

We are goosed in Ireland

Closing down hospitality for weeks in Dublin now is the final nail

https://www.arnnet.com.au/article/682981/dell-undertakes-further-redundancies/

I have no doubt some downsizing will be done by the big companies worldwide, they will be having reduced orders and will have to take certain actions.

But I feel your overall assessment is very doomsday.

I think Intel will be manufacturing in Ireland for many years to come, as will the pharma companies.

antimatterx

What do people think of the outlook for tech workers? Continued demand? Or will it come crashing down.

Double O Seven

Happydays2020 wrote: »

The history of this period and giving the keys to the country to a group of medics will not be looked on favourably.

I believe in 2 years time, NEPHET will be more hated than Seanie Fitzpatrick etc, I think Hollohan and Glynn will require round the clock security such will be the anger that will be out there.

Thierry12

NIMAN wrote: »

I have no doubt some downsizing will be done by the big companies worldwide, they will be having reduced orders and will have to take certain actions.

But I feel your overall assessment is very doomsday.

I think Intel will be manufacturing in Ireland for many years to come, as will the pharma companies.

Just repeating what I heard from people I know and it doesn't sound good.

Yeah downsizing might be a better term

Pharma you may be right

Intel I dont agree

It hasnt been Covid thats got them, they've been caught at the wheel by the competition

Nvidia are buying ARM now and AMD are in bed with the Taiwanese and Chinese

They losing marketshare all over the place

They would have downsized massively in Ireland anyway Covid or not, will cost too much to upgrade those fab plants

Intel will outsource fab manufacturing to other companies like TMSC, Samaung etc imo

Cant compete with those companies manufacturing in Taiwan, Korea etc

road_high

I work in the supply chain to the agricultural sector and the biggest issue I can see is ...credit.
We will continue fine and dandy as the products are essential to food production but if there are issues with getting paid and exposure of some customers to other industry like construction and they under we are left with more bad debts. Anyone that thinks they are safe and immune to any shocks are kidding themselves except the PS and of course Nphet types and their cronies

NIMAN

Thierry12 wrote: »

Just repeating what I heard from people I know and it doesn't sound good.

Yeah downsizing might be a better term

Pharma you may be right

Intel I dont agree

It hasnt been Covid thats got them, they've been caught at the wheel by the competition

Nvidia are buying ARM now and AMD are in bed with the Taiwanese and Chinese

They losing marketshare all over the place

They would have downsized massively in Ireland anyway Covid or not, will cost too much to upgrade those fab plants

Intel will outsource fab manufacturing to other companies like TMSC, Samaung etc imo

Cant compete with those companies manufacturing in Taiwan, Korea etc

I work for a multinational too, and have been hearing stories of doom and gloom for many many years. I think it's the nature of the business, and seems to be par for the course for a cohort of those who work in the place, especially on the shopfloor. They love negativity.

We have actually taken on staff recently but I was expecting some layoffs due to CV19 but no sign yet. That's not to say there won't be some in the next 12 - 24 months of Covid continues to decimate the economy.

I don't know about the internal working of Intel, but I would find it hard to accept that a company of that size and history will simply cease to be in the medium term due to letting themselves slip behind in R&D or technology. As I said above, I'd take what one of their employees says with a pinch of salt, some people just like to moan.

Zebra3

Thierry12 wrote: »

Intel will outsource fab manufacturing to other companies like TMSC, Samaung etc imo

Cant compete with those companies manufacturing in Taiwan, Korea etc

Why would Intel outsource to a bitter rival like Samsung and allow them access to Intel's technology?

Thierry12

Zebra3 wrote: »

Why would Intel outsource to a bitter rival like Samsung and allow them access to Intel's technology?

Because rivals are way ahead

Intel are stuck on a few nodes behind

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/313208-weve-never-seen-intel-struggle-like-this

They've already started these one off emergency deals ;-)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pcgamer.com/amp/intel-tsmc-not-long-term/

Consumers and businesses are not going to buy intel chips on power hungry 10nm nodes, when rivals are on 5nm, soon 3nm

Intel are not big too to fail and not too proud to say enough

If they have to retreat to Taiwanese or Koreans to survive they will

PommieBast

Zebra3 wrote: »

Why would Intel outsource to a bitter rival like Samsung and allow them access to Intel's technology?

When I worked at Intel Leixlip the story was that the stuff being outsourced to TSMC was the smaller-scale chips that Intel's own fabs are not really geared for. Things like specialist vision chips from Movidius rather than the Xeons.

PommieBast

antimatterx wrote: »

What do people think of the outlook for tech workers? Continued demand? Or will it come crashing down.

I think those directly in telecoms and network infrastructure should be safe. Those in outsourcing are highly exposed to a general contraction of the economy.

saabsaab

TuringBot47 wrote: »

That's a very good point.

Less people paying for monthly/annual bus/train passes.
So public transport might be less crowded, but less funded.

Traffic should be a bit lighter.

Impact on coffee shops/restaurants/delis around offices.

Less people in the pubs in city centre after work.

Maybe less need for creches as offices/IT companies embrace working from home at flexible work hours. Less need for the black market of minding kids while people are working/after school collection.

Conversely, people working from home will have more time and money to spend locally, effectively decentralising some spending.

It could also help rural life, allowing more people to work from home without needing to live within commuting distance of major cities. That could reduce rental pressures.

Yeah, this Corona crisis could really reset our ideas of work/lifestyle.

Well it's 6 months on and this original prediction was pretty good.

saabsaab

saabsaab wrote: »

Well 6 months from now, who knows but I'll make a few predictions. We won't be fully out of the covid crisis but the worst should be over.



Many stores that don't have an effective internet presence will be gone to the wall. Some stores that closed will not reopen again.


House prices will fall.



New stores will open on the back of low interest rates.


Insurance banking and airlines will still suffer.


All places where people congregate will be in need of redesign. Cinemas, supermarkets, hairdressers, banks, offices etc. This should generate jobs for construction related people.


A greater demand for medical and scientific degrees.

Nearly six months ago now Wasn't too far off?

Beasty

Another week and we'll know the answer to the question posed by the OP


...and it ain't gonna be "pretty"

tobefrank321

6 months time?
At least one if not two more national lockdowns.
500,000 long term unemployed (unemployed more than 1 year)
50% of indoor restaurants gone under.
25% of pubs permanently closed.
25% of retail shops permanently closed.
The airports in serious financial trouble.

And so on..

Thierry12

tobefrank321 wrote: »

6 months time?
At least one if not two more national lockdowns.
500,000 long term unemployed (unemployed more than 1 year)
50% of indoor restaurants gone under.
25% of pubs permanently closed.
25% of retail shops permanently closed.
The airports in serious financial trouble.

And so on..

Low hanging have been got alright

MNC are next

WFH users wont be asking for more lockdowns soon

Some bad news coming with Q3 books nearly ready

2lazytogetup

big companies are now accepting they have a wider responsibility, its no longer just a duty to shareholders, but also to employees, and society as a whole. so they cant be forcing redundancies.

i think the lesser of two evils would be for everyone to take a pay cut. consumer confidence has gone down, people arent spending money for which the logical trade off is that there is less money going around and thus less money to pay them.

id like to see the people maknig more money taking a bigger hit with people on minimum wage spared any cut.

i count my blessings that im not on the breadline, and id be happy to live on less money in 6 months time. things have changed and peoples jobs and wages are going to have to reflect that.