What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

What are the SMALL businesses that will “bounce back quickly”?

Mechanics, plumbers, electricians are all “business ready” - yes they’ve lost money but they have the tools and ability to get going again.

But things like cafes and coffee shops? Hands up those who will hang out in a coffee shop for 30 mins in the next 4 months? Didn’t think so.

Small clothes boutiques need season appropriate stock - they’ve missed nearly one full season by the time they can open again-they need hard cash for stock and of course they need access to stock which won’t be easy either-not looking good for them.
Our Irish main streets are already devastated - and that’s before looking at the big retailers- many of the UK stores are predicted to fold.

But even with the big retailers -Would shoppers head back en mass to a shopping centre in the next 6 months? Or a cinema?

We’ve become so guarded now about or health and social distancing I think a lot of people will stay away or at least not attend to the levels they previously did- that’s more retailers gone.

Low paid retail jobs kept the economy going, especially local and rural economies- I don’t see that sector taking off anytime soon in 2020.

Wanderer78

Yurt! wrote: »

Indeed, I shudder more at the prospect of those clinging to economic orthodoxies they've copied and pasted from others leading us.

"We all partied" ; "magic money tree" ; "tightening belts"

Expect to see a resurgence of these canards over the next few years.

Burning the village to save it comes to mind.

im expecting to hear these things in the next couple of months!:rolleyes:

if this happens, we really are fcuked!

but i am seeing wee rays of hope though, with the implication, even though on a small scale, of things such as helicopter money etc

Glebee

Yurt! wrote: »

Indeed, I shudder more at the prospect of those clinging to economic orthodoxies they've copied and pasted from others leading us.

"We all partied" ; "magic money tree" ; "tightening belts"

Expect to see a resurgence of these canards over the next few years.

Burning the village to save it comes to mind.

Remember The McCarthy Report dubbed "An Bord Snip Nua" by newspaper journalists, that boiled my piss for sum reason.

The Bishop Basher

I've gone to buy a couple of things online from local businesses over the last few days.

All of them are temporarily closed for online orders due to unprecedented demand.

I realise a lot of this will be down to bottlenecks in their online order and logistics processes which have been overwhelmed but it does demonstrate that some business is booming albeit online..

AdamD

Deleted User wrote: »

What are the SMALL businesses that will “bounce back quickly”?

Mechanics, plumbers, electricians are all “business ready” - yes they’ve lost money but they have the tools and ability to get going again.

But things like cafes and coffee shops? Hands up those who will hang out in a coffee shop for 30 mins in the next 4 months? Didn’t think so.

Small clothes boutiques need season appropriate stock - they’ve missed nearly one full season by the time they can open again-they need hard cash for stock and of course they need access to stock which won’t be easy either-not looking good for them.
Our Irish main streets are already devastated - and that’s before looking at the big retailers- many of the UK stores are predicted to fold.

But even with the big retailers -Would shoppers head back en mass to a shopping centre in the next 6 months? Or a cinema?

We’ve become so guarded now about or health and social distancing I think a lot of people will stay away or at least not attend to the levels they previously did- that’s more retailers gone.

Low paid retail jobs kept the economy going, especially local and rural economies- I don’t see that sector taking off anytime soon in 2020.

Maybe I'm being naive but most I talk to can't wait to get back to a semblance of normality, so I doubt they'll be avoiding coffee shops and shopping centres once they're back open

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

We’ve become so guarded now about or health and social distancing I think a lot of people will stay away or at least not attend to the levels they previously did- that’s more retailers gone.
.

I don't see it. Sure, people are staying at home more now, and not going out as much, but I'm still seeing a lot of other people meeting in groups while they're out walking. Some people get the crisis, others, not so much.

And I suspect that once the initial all clear is given, there'll be a rush to enjoy themselves again.

It's like lent. Remember giving up Chocolate for 40 days as a kid, and the glorious gorging afterwards? I think most people will be like that.

Downlinz

AdamD wrote: »

Maybe I'm being naive but most I talk to can't wait to get back to a semblance of normality, so I doubt they'll be avoiding coffee shops and shopping centres once they're back open

Everyone wants it to happen, it doesn't mean they feel comfortable taking those risks while the virus is still around.

It'll be baby steps back towards doing those things again and many will steer clear entirely until a vaccine is ready.

AdamD

AdamD wrote: »

Maybe I'm being naive but most I talk to can't wait to get back to a semblance of normality, so I doubt they'll be avoiding coffee shops and shopping centres once they're back open

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't see it. Sure, people are staying at home more now, and not going out as much, but I'm still seeing a lot of other people meeting in groups while they're out walking. Some people get the crisis, others, not so much.

And I suspect that once the initial all clear is given, there'll be a rush to enjoy themselves again.

It's like lent. Remember giving up Chocolate for 40 days as a kid, and the glorious gorging afterwards? I think most people will be like that.

Well guys I like your positivity and optimism and would be more than delighted to be proven wrong so I would. It’s hard not to think negative thoughts at this stage

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

It's like lent. Remember giving up Chocolate for 40 days as a kid, and the glorious gorging afterwards? I think most people will be like that.

No, I've little or no memories of this kind of behaviour, but my family isn't exactly religious, I think this will be a very slow recovery, possibly slower than the last one

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

It's like lent. Remember giving up Chocolate for 40 days as a kid, and the glorious gorging afterwards? I think most people will be like that.

I'm not sure. People will be bearish.

When the last recession happened, saving levels skyrocketed. Anyone who had a few extra quid to put away, did so to give themselves maximum protection against any future decline in the economy.

It was only when things started picking up again and the threat of job losses subsided, that people felt happier to start spending again.

Yes, people will go out and start going to cafes and restaurants again. But we will have seen so many businesses go to the wall, so many neighbours and family members lose jobs or take huge paycuts, that we will be watching the pennies. People will sit on what money they still have just in case there are more economic shocks to come.

I think the idea that people will splurge and reignite the economy doesn't really hold much water unless there are incentives and campaigns at a national level to try and encourage people's confidence.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

No, I've little or no memories of this kind of behaviour, but my family isn't exactly religious, I think this will be a very slow recovery, possibly slower than the last one

Ahh.. well.. I remember it clearly.. although I suspect it's more of a generational thing. Such a practice wasn't terribly common with my younger friends. Went out of fashion.

In any case, full economic recovery will take time. People heading out immediately after getting an all clear will happen pretty quickly.. especially if the bars are opened. I can't see younger Irish people avoiding those venues after two months being stuck at home. And I'd reckon that the cafes will be busy with middle aged people meeting for chats to catch up.

I do think we'll see measures in place though to limit numbers and increase standard seating arrangements to increase distancing... Logical/common sense approach.. and I expect people will believe these measures to be enough.

Economic recovery will take years. Social recovery will be quicker.

Downlinz

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't see it. Sure, people are staying at home more now, and not going out as much, but I'm still seeing a lot of other people meeting in groups while they're out walking. Some people get the crisis, others, not so much.

And I suspect that once the initial all clear is given, there'll be a rush to enjoy themselves again.

It's like lent. Remember giving up Chocolate for 40 days as a kid, and the glorious gorging afterwards? I think most people will be like that.

Honestly, I think there's a degree of denial from what you're saying and it's understandable why. A lot of people haven't processed what's happened and what we're facing and suggest these scenarios which involve everything somehow returning to the way it was very quickly. Those people haven't yet accepted the world has changed.

It'd be nice if that happened but without a vaccine I don't think there's any conceivable way society will be like what it was a few months ago.

seamus

seamus wrote: »

I'm not sure. People will be bearish.

When the last recession happened, saving levels skyrocketed. Anyone who had a few extra quid to put away, did so to give themselves maximum protection against any future decline in the economy.

It was only when things started picking up again and the threat of job losses subsided, that people felt happier to start spending again.

Yes, people will go out and start going to cafes and restaurants again. But we will have seen so many businesses go to the wall, so many neighbours and family members lose jobs or take huge paycuts, that we will be watching the pennies. People will sit on what money they still have just in case there are more economic shocks to come.

I think the idea that people will splurge and reignite the economy doesn't really hold much water unless there are incentives and campaigns at a national level to try and encourage people's confidence.

And online buying will be the norm not the “and also”- as it has being to date for many products- it will be for cars, coffee, jewellery, fresh vegetables and butcher meat, clothes - and by people in their 40s and upwards not just for the younger age groups- And this will mean not only the main streets of Ireland will be dead, the shopping malls will become deserted also - maybe some will become “tryout” stores where you can see and feel certain products but sales will all be online

Downlinz

Downlinz wrote: »

Honestly, I think there's a degree of denial from what you're saying and it's understandable why. A lot of people haven't processed what's happened and what we're facing and suggest these scenarios which involve everything somehow returning to the way it was very quickly. Those people haven't yet accepted the world has changed.

It'd be nice if that happened but without a vaccine I don't think there's any conceivable way society will be like what it was a few months ago.

Change is natural. I doubt we'll ever fully return to what it was like a few months ago. For the first time, Irish people faced a serious threat to them. That's going to change things considerably. Distancing will remain for many people, well after a vaccine has been released, because the fear will remain. I expect face masks will become a normal part of life, as will the lack of touching. Or Those screens in stores to prevent transmission becoming normal.

And IMHO we shouldn't be trying to return to that ignorance. It's time to wise up, an not believe that everything will pass us by. It's good that people become more hygienic, or aware of the very real risks out there.

Economically.. I don't see the economy bouncing back to "normal" but the changing environment will bring opportunities for new businesses/services. That will provide a boost to the economy as our society changes to it's newer outlook. It's not all doom and gloom. Honestly, it might actually turn out better for us in the long run, because the previous economic system wasn't particularly robust, or viable long term. It was fragile to fluctuations before the virus.. so perhaps this is a good time to move past it and develop other core strengths.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

Change is natural. I doubt we'll ever fully return to what it was like a few months ago. For the first time, Irish people faced a serious threat to them. That's going to change things considerably. Distancing will remain for many people, well after a vaccine has been released, because the fear will remain. I expect face masks will become a normal part of life, as will the lack of touching. Or Those screens in stores to prevent transmission becoming normal.

And IMHO we shouldn't be trying to return to that ignorance. It's time to wise up, an not believe that everything will pass us by. It's good that people become more hygienic, or aware of the very real risks out there.

Economically.. I don't see the economy bouncing back to "normal" but the changing environment will bring opportunities for new businesses/services. That will provide a boost to the economy as our society changes to it's newer outlook. It's not all doom and gloom. Honestly, it might actually turn out better for us in the long run, because the previous economic system wasn't particularly robust, or viable long term. It was fragile to fluctuations before the virus.. so perhaps this is a good time to move past it and develop other core strengths.

change of course is natural, but strangely enough, us humans can be very adverse to it at times, but i will agree, im certainly hoping more positives will come of this, but there will be pain for many during this change, we just need to make sure we look after those that find themselves more vulnerable to these changes, and provide them with whatever they need to better their situations

jmayo

The likes of Europe and the US might learn that relying on China (and some other Asian states) for all you essential supplies is not such a good thing for the average citizen and the state as a whole.

Granted multinationals and the avarice modern consumers will want the merry-go-round to continue, but lessons are slowly being learned.

America I think will definitely change.
There could be a push to move overseas entities back home.
And if America sneezes we catch a cold.

I think the world is going to be different.

This has been one of the biggest seismic events to counter a lot of the changes of the last 50/60 odd years.

People will probably be more wary of travel, of strangers, of the unknown.
And that has knock on effects on tourism round the world.
I expect business travel to drastically reduce when the accountants realise how much they can save.

But in lots of ways life will continue as it always has.
There will still be the haves and the have-nots.
There will still be the smart ones and gormless idiots.
There will still be the hard workers and the lazy.
There will still be the sound people and the insufferable asshol*s .

AdamD

Downlinz wrote: »

Honestly, I think there's a degree of denial from what you're saying and it's understandable why. A lot of people haven't processed what's happened and what we're facing and suggest these scenarios which involve everything somehow returning to the way it was very quickly. Those people haven't yet accepted the world has changed.

It'd be nice if that happened but without a vaccine I don't think there's any conceivable way society will be like what it was a few months ago.

I think there's a big difference in saying things won't be back to normal vs people will be reluctant to go to coffee shops.

I agree things won't be normal, but I don't think people will be that wary either. Spending however will be down and major events won't happen for quite a while.

Spending splurges are unlikely, people who have saved over the lockdown may spend slightly more when it ends but they won't spend everything they saved up

pjohnson

Shops were struggling as much as anyone else due to the rents, rates and insurance costs they faced. If the shopping centers/councils/insurers dont want to find themselves in the shìt these business expenses will need to be greatly reduced. Even in the "functioning" economy of a few months ago the "small business" that people are on about failing now were on the brink of failure.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

change of course is natural, but strangely enough, us humans can be very adverse to it at times, but i will agree, im certainly hoping more positives will come of this, but there will be pain for many during this change, we just need to make sure we look after those that find themselves more vulnerable to these changes, and provide them with whatever they need to better their situations

To be fair, most of those people experiencing pain were experiencing pain before the virus happened. It's worth examining what has actually changed as opposed to simply transferring everything as a consequence to the virus.

Although, I do see one major negative. Automation will be encouraged far more than before... and that will cut out many previously held jobs. Still, once again, it simply forces people to adapt (hopefully not simply go on welfare), and it was going to happen anyway. The virus will just have accelerated the development and implementation of it.

Ireland shifted from an agricultural based society to essentially a services/technological focus within a relatively short period of time. I have the hope that we can do that again, with whatever becomes the next stage of development. Service economies, while profitable, are just too fragile.

jmayo

jmayo wrote: »

The likes of Europe and the US might learn that relying on China (and some other Asian states) for all you essential supplies is not such a good thing for the average citizen and the state as a whole.

Granted multinationals and the avarice modern consumers will want the merry-go-round to continue, but lessons are slowly being learned.

America I think will definitely change.
There could be a push to move overseas entities back home.
And if America sneezes we catch a cold.
.

Trump was calling for American business to return to the US long before the virus happened... so he's going to be justified for that agenda.

As for Ireland, hopefully, it'll force less reliance on the US, and a greater focus on homegrown business, or better links within Europe. This is not the time to be reliant on any foreign nation, whether that's in Asia or the US. I don't see US society as being particularly stable, considering the rise of identity politics and it's racial divisions... so, getting away from them would be a definite plus.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote: »

To be fair, most of those people experiencing pain were experiencing pain before the virus happened. It's worth examining what has actually changed as opposed to simply transferring everything as a consequence to the virus.

Although, I do see one major negative. Automation will be encouraged far more than before... and that will cut out many previously held jobs. Still, once again, it simply forces people to adapt (hopefully not simply go on welfare), and it was going to happen anyway. The virus will just have accelerated the development and implementation of it.

Ireland shifted from an agricultural based society to essentially a services/technological focus within a relatively short period of time. I have the hope that we can do that again, with whatever becomes the next stage of development. Service economies, while profitable, are just too fragile.

ive been following the fear of automation arguments for sometime, the fears are understandable, but there are arguments out there that modernisation/mechanisation/automation etc etc, of our economies have in fact created more jobs than destroyed them. i think theres an element of truth there, and if you follow these arguments, it makes sense, but i will agree, this virus has truly shown the vulnerability of our global economy, so hopefully we now learn from these vulnerabilities, and makes positive changes for all.

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

And online buying will be the norm not the “and also”- as it has being to date for many products- it will be for cars, coffee, jewellery, fresh vegetables and butcher meat, clothes - and by people in their 40s and upwards not just for the younger age groups- And this will mean not only the main streets of Ireland will be dead, the shopping malls will become deserted also - maybe some will become “tryout” stores where you can see and feel certain products but sales will all be online

I'm not sure I'd be as pessimistic as you.

Online sales will certainly take a huge boost from this, but they won't supplant retail sales completely.

There are many items that people prefer to shop on-demand, like food. As much as I like the convenience of an online shop, there's a large appeal in being able to choose the products I want rather than trusting someone else to do it for me.
For many there is also a strongly social or catharthic aspect to physical shopping. Women don't go out shopping for a day because they need stuff; it's an event, it's socialising. It's the equivalent of going down the pub for a few pints with the lads.

I do think you're right though; this is the death knell of "main street" shopping, which was declining anyway. The notion of going into a bustling city centre to buy stuff will take a massive back seat.
This will have a positive knock-on effect; city centres will become places to socialise and live, not just a place for people to go to work. Streets pedestrianised and reclaimed from traffic, parks expanded. Lowered rents will allow smaller and more local business to operate.

In terms of online sales, one thing to consider is the international fallout of this. The EU and US are going to become slightly more insular economies. More and more production will be brought back to the mainland, tarriffs imposed on goods coming from China in order to restrict the economic reliance on developing countries for cheap goods.

This will impact online retailers, whose primary savings are achieved through massive sales volumes from cheap suppliers. While many local retailers will have their online presence, they will still get footfall from people seeking out niche products that can't be sourced online at a decent price. You won't be able to get niche electronics components for 50c from AliExpress anymore. It'll be €3 from a big German online shop or €4.50 from an Irish company. And this is the difference that will push people to shop local.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

ive been following the fear of automation arguments for sometime, the fears are understandable, but there are arguments out there that modernisation/mechanisation/automation etc etc, of our economies have in fact created more jobs than destroyed them. i think theres an element of truth there, and if you follow these arguments, it makes sense, but i will agree, this virus has truly shown the vulnerability of our global economy, so hopefully we now learn from these vulnerabilities, and makes positive changes for all.

Initial jobs would have risen due to the research and development of automation, but as it becomes more advanced there will be less need for direct human involvement. Automated automation processes... that's the goal.

So short term gains in employment, but ultimately it'll mean to removal of the vast majority who have gained. Adding to those who have lost.

Basically, the government should be aimed at up-skilling everyone currently working in any field that might be automated. Not aiming to do it in ten years time, but aiming to do it now... that way there is a gradual shift, rather than an abrupt one.

Wanderer78

Deleted User wrote:

Initial jobs would have risen due to the research and development of automation, but as it becomes more advanced there will be less need for direct human involvement. Automated automation processes... that's the goal.

Again, some research is actually showing a net increase in employment when there's major shifts in modernisation/mechanisation/automation etc etc, as this has in fact increased demand in economies, therefore an increase in need for more jobs etc etc. This isn't clear cut, we simply haven't a clue how automation will ultimately affect the overall job market, but the historic data on this matter is actually very interesting, I.e. net employment increase every time there's been a shift. I do accept historical trends are no way of guaranteeing possible future events, but equally so are possible future predictions, we simply don't know but....

I will agree though, we do need to protect people as best of possible via methods such as continual educational and training, but we also need to accept it's limitations, and make sure other protective measures are in place such as robust welfare systems etc

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I will agree though, we do need to protect people as best of possible via methods such as continual educational and training, but we also need to accept it's limitations, and make sure other protective measures are in place such as robust welfare systems etc

Agreed... although I disagree about welfare. It's not viable long-term and has generated too many negatives within society. We need to be moving away from it, not providing more reasons for people to rely on it. The aim should be to provide people with viable skills that will employ them for the forseeable future. A removal of older skills except for those who want to specialise.

daedal

People will probably realize how sh*te their lives were while working and decide to stay on the dole

Dr. Bre

daedal wrote: »

People will probably realize how **** their lives were while working and decide to stay on the dole

Yesterday on rte news it said people were leaving jobs to go on the covid payment . Says it all really

Wanderer78

Dr. Bre wrote:

Yesterday on rte news it said people were leaving jobs to go on the covid payment . Says it all really

Yup, the working world is ****e for many

seamus

seamus wrote: »

I'm not sure I'd be as pessimistic as you.

Online sales will certainly take a huge boost from this, but they won't supplant retail sales completely.

There are many items that people prefer to shop on-demand, like food. As much as I like the convenience of an online shop, there's a large appeal in being able to choose the products I want rather than trusting someone else to do it for me.
For many there is also a strongly social or catharthic aspect to physical shopping. Women don't go out shopping for a day because they need stuff; it's an event, it's socialising. It's the equivalent of going down the pub for a few pints with the lads.

I do think you're right though; this is the death knell of "main street" shopping, which was declining anyway. The notion of going into a bustling city centre to buy stuff will take a massive back seat.
This will have a positive knock-on effect; city centres will become places to socialise and live, not just a place for people to go to work. Streets pedestrianised and reclaimed from traffic, parks expanded. Lowered rents will allow smaller and more local business to operate.

In terms of online sales, one thing to consider is the international fallout of this. The EU and US are going to become slightly more insular economies. More and more production will be brought back to the mainland, tarriffs imposed on goods coming from China in order to restrict the economic reliance on developing countries for cheap goods.

This will impact online retailers, whose primary savings are achieved through massive sales volumes from cheap suppliers. While many local retailers will have their online presence, they will still get footfall from people seeking out niche products that can't be sourced online at a decent price. You won't be able to get niche electronics components for 50c from AliExpress anymore. It'll be €3 from a big German online shop or €4.50 from an Irish company. And this is the difference that will push people to shop local.

Interesting thoughts- certainly prices will rise if China is no longer the big player it once was but you know what, I like that idea as people are filling their houses with the greatest load of unnecessary tat so I’d see that as a positive not a negative - less production of tat means less waste and better for the planet and possibly home grown industries and companies- I’m trying to see silver linings here- how much will b achieved remains to be seen but there’s certainly opportunity if most people change their spending habits a bit

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Interesting thoughts- certainly prices will rise if China is no longer the big player it once was but you know what, I like that idea as people are filling their houses with the greatest load of unnecessary tat so I’d see that as a positive not a negative - less production of tat means less waste and better for the planet and possibly home grown industries and companies- I’m trying to see silver linings here- how much will b achieved remains to be seen but there’s certainly opportunity if most people change their spending habits a bit

Except the crap quality is not simply the fault of China. Look at Apple for example. Their customer service is one of the worst in the world. If your ipod or ipad becomes even remotely scratched, they'll try to weasel out of their warranty, and even then, the warranty on various products can be quite short.

We live in an age where appliances are expected to break down after a few years. I can remember the fridge we had when I was a kid.. it stayed with us throughout my childhood, and well into my teens. Then when my parents made more money, they upgraded to a "better more modern" version.. which broke after three years. The expiration date on appliances is becoming shorter and shorter, not because of China, but because western companies want to make more profits. People are shocked that I've been running my laptop for the last 7 years. I maintain it myself, and do the needed servicing... but most people haven't any interest in that. Instead, they'll replace their laptops after 3-4 years because it's slowed down so much or struggled with newer apps.

I can understand trying to see silver linings but lets not go overboard on blaming China for crap that western companies have been doing themselves for decades. It's not going to change either. If anything it will be worse, because prices will rise (more expensive sourcing), but the longevity of products will remain the same.