What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

Pa ElGrande

Another perspective - Ireland Employed Persons 2017-2019




30% unemployment??

evosteo

Debenhams Ireland gone into liquidation. Staff got a mail this afternoon saying thanks for your service and good luck

Are they the first high profile company gone under in Ireland?

Pa ElGrande

evosteo wrote: »

Debenhams Ireland gone into liquidation. Staff got a mail this afternoon saying thanks for your service and good luck

Are they the first high profile company gone under in Ireland?

Debenhams has been having problems for a while now. This event is just the final straw that breaks the camels back.
March 2019

But Debenhams said “macroeconomic uncertainties”, combined with disruption and additional finance costs caused by the need to refinance meant the firm would no longer be able to meet the full year pretax profit target of £8m stated on 10 January. The company made an underlying profit of £33.2m in the previous year.

source

evosteo

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Debenhams has been having problems for a while now. This event is just the final straw that breaks the camels back.
March 2019

The irish stores have been sacrificed to save the UK business

evosteo

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5301345/debenham-pull-out-ireland-close-stores/

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5301345/debenham-pull-out-ireland-close-stores/

enricoh

Imf warning of an economic depression not seen since the 1920's.
At least if the whole world is in the gutter it'll focus minds more, in 2008 we were just one of the pigs to be laughed at-

The IMF is warning that we could be heading towards a major recession. Today, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that coronavirus is causing an economic crisis unlike any in the past century. “We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression,” she said

Dravokivich

evosteo wrote: »

The irish stores have been sacrificed to save the UK business

They both traded independently, so I don't see how that's the case. Whenever I've been in Debenhams over the last few years I couldn't help but think they'd a chronic lack of customers. This was gonna happen sooner or later.

Kivaro

enricoh wrote: »

Imf warning of an economic depression not seen since the 1920's.
At least if the whole world is in the gutter it'll focus minds more, in 2008 we were just one of the pigs to be laughed at-

The IMF is warning that we could be heading towards a major recession. Today, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that coronavirus is causing an economic crisis unlike any in the past century. “We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression,” she said

We could use the opportunity to set things right in this country.

Wanderer78

Kivaro wrote: »

We could use the opportunity to set things right in this country.

...and across the planet, but will we!

Dr. Bre

We will have another ten years saying keep the recovery going..

Idbatterim

Dravokivich wrote: »

They both traded independently, so I don't see how that's the case. Whenever I've been in Debenhams over the last few years I couldn't help but think they'd a chronic lack of customers. This was gonna happen sooner or later.

definetly, there are businesses, that were on the verge and going that way already, like the virus itself, this is going to kill off the weakest...

Yurt2

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

That's €250 million per week, pretty soon you're talking real money. :eek: The UBI experiment in Finland did not work well either.

I'd agree with the criticisms of the experiment in that article. A UBI experiment would surely only be of use if the UBI was given to a control group that consisted of individuals across the typical income distributions and observe how they behaved with the UBI.

ShineOn7

evosteo wrote: »

Debenhams Ireland gone into liquidation. Staff got a mail this afternoon saying thanks for your service and good luck

Are they the first high profile company gone under in Ireland?

Many online saying they're using Covid as an excuse to close down the Irish stores, they were already in bad shape

I will definitely miss their Menswear section, the John Rocha Debenams sub brand was wonderful. If still using them online we'll have to guess sizes and fit, which is too messy

A shame and it's just the start of retail casualties between now and 2022

ShineOn7

enricoh wrote: »

Imf warning of an economic depression not seen since the 1920's.
At least if the whole world is in the gutter it'll focus minds more, in 2008 we were just one of the pigs to be laughed at-

The IMF is warning that we could be heading towards a major recession. Today, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that coronavirus is causing an economic crisis unlike any in the past century. “We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression,” she said

For the past few years I've been hoping for an economic correction sort out the absolute joke that is the Irish property market

But not like this

ShineOn7

evosteo wrote: »

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5301345/debenham-pull-out-ireland-close-stores/

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5301345/debenham-pull-out-ireland-close-stores/

One link to The Sun website is one too many

Two links should lead to a month in prison :-)

saabsaab

A slowing of rampant throwaway consumerism is no harm. It will also mean a lowering in living standards by some measures, the economies of the world will take some time to recover.

Xertz

Debenhams were always one of the most likely to go and I would suspect their UK parent will probably disappear too. They're £600 million in debt, owned by hedge funds and are extremely unlikely to attract any investors given the global economic outlook.

The one thing I would say in Ireland is the key physical buildings, particularly the grand old city centre stores in Cork and Dublin and so on are owned by the old Roches Stores group. So, it's quite possible they will re-emerge as something else in the months / years ahead. Although, I can't see anyone rushing to setup a general department store as that business model's not really viable anymore due to online retail.

It's very unfortunate for the staff working there, but I have a feeling that a lot of UK-based high street retailers are extremely vulnerable to this and Irish Main Streets and shopping centres will be looking rather empty in a few months time as they're largely populated by those stores.
Some of the continental and international ones are potentially in slightly better shape, but it depends a lot on what's going to happen in the rest of the EU and globally.

There isn't a precedent for any of this in the modern economy and a lot will depend on the scale of bailouts / rescue packages / stimulus packages and some of those could be more focused on home markets.

If Irish property investors don't cut retailers a break though and we get into this upwards only lease dogma again, you can expect the Irish retail market to look very bleak in the months ahead.

The answer is really: nobody knows.

leavingirl

Dorakman wrote: »

I’m assuming you’re being sarcastic?

No, I'm being proved right.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1129580/

citysights

enricoh wrote: »

Imf warning of an economic depression not seen since the 1920's.
At least if the whole world is in the gutter it'll focus minds more, in 2008 we were just one of the pigs to be laughed at-

The IMF is warning that we could be heading towards a major recession. Today, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that coronavirus is causing an economic crisis unlike any in the past century. “We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression,” she said

How are people going to survive this if it’s as bad as anticipated. Why are good businesses the world over being forced to close with the resultant economic fallout, lack of unemployment. How will people eat and buy fuel? Will the covid payment be able to see people through indefinitely. Serious questions not pleasant. Maybe as a small country with a low population we will do better than others. We are a good food producer so that will stand to us.

Roger_007

citysights wrote: »

How are people going to survive this if it’s as bad as anticipated. Why are good businesses the world over being forced to close with the resultant economic fallout, lack of unemployment. How will people eat and buy fuel? Will the covid payment be able to see people through indefinitely. Serious questions not pleasant. Maybe as a small country with a low population we will do better than others. We are a good food producer so that will stand to us.

I think that in addition to the known symptoms of Covid, you could add in economic insanity. All the normal rules of good economic management have been thrown out the window almost in panic mode. It will prove impossible to reign in all the extra spending and we are facing into a severe recession.
This Covid crisis is going to be with us for a long time to come. We are not talking about months, but years. The only consolation is that most countries will be in the same boat, (that boat being the economic equivalent of the Titanic).

leavingirl

citysights wrote: »

How will people eat and buy fuel?

Many people will resort to stealing and begging.
People who now ( April 2020) would never dream of even thinking of doing such a thing.

And I'm not being sarcastic.

Xertz

I'd fully expect the economic ramifications of this to still be with us in 2030 - 2035. It's not unreasonable when you consider the aftermath of 2008 can still be felt in a lot of countries.

It's not going to recover quickly, I think it's pretty unrealistic to just expect a switch to be flipped and we'll all be back to normal.

We also have no idea how long it's going to take to bring it to a complete conclusion or if when restrictions are lifted if it will just come back as a second wave of infections. There's so far no indication of a vaccines arriving very quickly nor has there been all that much success with drugs. So, we're probably looking at another 12 months of quite active infections.

If you add to it that it may go completely out of control in the developing world, where the medical infrastructure and housing is very weak, then you could well have very serious economic impacts.

Also Western demand is way down, so China and much of Asia will also hit the rocks rather hard until those economies pick up again.

It's quite a mess.

sydthebeat

Might be completely naive here, but as there basically isn't anywhere in the world not affected by this economically... Why can't economies be simply "paused" while this is all going on...

I mean, in order for companies to fold etc, doesn't that mean something is profiteering from these closures? Why can't everyone be told "pause all debt repayments".... Including all major countries... I mean, the economic demand was there before all this.

Surely some kind of pause mechanism is better than these doomsday predictions

arctictree

Is it feasible that we are just going to run out of money? Surely these welfare payments are unsustainable?

leavingirl

sydthebeat wrote: »

Might be completely naive here, but as there basically isn't anywhere in the world not affected by this economically... Why can't economies be simply "paused" while this is all going on...

I mean, in order for companies to fold etc, doesn't that mean something is profiteering from these closures? Why can't everyone be told "pause all debt repayments".... Including all major countries... I mean, the economic demand was there before all this.

Surely some kind of pause mechanism is better than these doomsday predictions

God bless your innocent little soul.

Xertz

arctictree wrote: »

Is it feasible that we are just going to run out of money? Surely these welfare payments are unsustainable?

They're basically feasible as long as we can borrow. At present our bond rates are still low (10 year fixed) but there may well be a change in those in the coming weeks and months. At least the government got in quickly and borrowed €8bn at extremely low rates.
We should probably borrow significantly while we can at those rates, as they may not be available in a few months time.

Hopefully, we can pull out of this relatively rapidly but I wouldn't really be entirely confident and a lot of it will depend on how trading partners are doing, notably everyone in the EU 27, the US and the UK.

Risteard81

Congratulations Leo on destroying all of the jobs at Debenhams (Roches Stores).

Wanderer78

Risteard81 wrote: »

Congratulations Leo on destroying all of the jobs at Debenhams (Roches Stores).

leo created corona?

Risteard81

Wanderer78 wrote: »

leo created corona?

Leo created a totalitarian state and closed down everyone's jobs (and Debenhams' profits). Leo is 100% to blame.

Wanderer78

Risteard81 wrote: »

Leo created a totalitarian state and closed down everyone's jobs (and Debenhams' profits). Leo is 100% to blame.

really?