What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

Risteard81

Wanderer78 wrote: »

really?

Yes.

Wanderer78

Risteard81 wrote: »

Yes.

ive just been granted my walking licence from our totalitarian state, i might be back to address your concerns, thats if im not arrested and jailed without trial!

Dravokivich

Risteard81 wrote: »

Leo created a totalitarian state and closed down everyone's jobs (and Debenhams' profits). Leo is 100% to blame.

This seems to be a very popular word to misuse lately, or are people just trying to incite others to pitch forks and torches at dusk?

Risteard81

Dravokivich wrote: »

This seems to be a very popular word to misuse lately, or are people just trying to incite others to pitch forks and torches at dusk?

It's not being misused. This criminal is ruling through diktats issued over the television. It is an affront to democracy. In every respect this is totalitarianism.

Nollog

Don't a lot of US pharma companies employ here?
Surely they'll be the big winners here, how would that factor in?

Yurt2

/\/ollog wrote: »

Don't a lot of US pharma companies employ here?
Surely they'll be the big winners here, how would that factor in?

You'd feel they'll do ok. Other multinational companies probably won't fare so well due to extremely depressed global demand.

A lot of fluffy boom-time tech companies based with will probably go pop in the US.

Even the behemoths like Facebook and Google rely overwhelmingly on advertising revenue.

It's not a pretty picture in any country, and Ireland will be no different.

Greentopia

MadYaker wrote: »

I think the government are going to give us all a wad of cash each to get it started again.

Lump sums would help, for self employed anyway. Artist friends in Berlin got €5000 into their bank accounts. They were shocked, not just because of the large amount but that they got it within a few days of applying with minimal red tape...a minor miracle in Germany.

All 16 Bundesländer rolling out similar plans for self employed with differing sums of money being given. But then Germany had a surplus of money to draw from.

As for how the economy here will look who knows. Given the lack of a clear exit strategy so far from government I'm guessing worse than other European countries, slightly better than UK.
There should be little increase in unemployment if they followed the German and Danish model of subsidised short term working (kurzarbeit).

Idbatterim

assuming they will have to introduce emergency budget... you'd wonder where they will try to cut expenditure and increase revenue... Doubt they will go near water charges again, there should be a council tax, every adult pays, no exemptions, but they wouldnt touch a proper taxation model here, with a barge poll!

xmas welfare bonus should be scrapped. The higher vat rate is already ridiculous. Might increase DIRT tax...

manonboard

Risteard81 wrote: »

Leo created a totalitarian state and closed down everyone's jobs (and Debenhams' profits). Leo is 100% to blame.

What per say, would you do if in his position? to combat this pandemic and ensure the welfare of the people?
Keeping in mind, you cant behave like a dictator. You'd need to listen to the medical experts telling you to lock down, whilst simultaneously respecting the rules of the EU and basic economics.

Charles Babbage

Yurt! wrote:

Even the behemoths like Facebook and Google rely overwhelmingly on advertising revenue.

Google will be fine. There will be more use of their cloud services by business, which is not funded by advertising. By and large tech will be fine, which suits Ireland.

Idbatterim wrote: »

assuming they will have to introduce emergency budget... you'd wonder where they will try to cut expenditure and increase revenue... Doubt they will go near water charges again, there should be a council tax, every adult pays, no exemptions, but they wouldnt touch a proper taxation model here, with a barge poll!

xmas welfare bonus should be scrapped. The higher vat rate is already ridiculous. Might increase DIRT tax...

DIRT tax remains high. Why do you wish to penalise people who save? Putting something by should be encouraged not penalised.

Roger_007

manonboard wrote: »

What per say, would you do if in his position? to combat this pandemic and ensure the welfare of the people?
Keeping in mind, you cant behave like a dictator. You'd need to listen to the medical experts telling you to lock down, whilst simultaneously respecting the rules of the EU and basic economics.

I don’t think the rules of basic economics have been observed. What is going to happen to the special Covid unemployment payment. Once you’ve given it you cannot take it away. Will the people in receipt of that payment be reduced to standard jobseekers in six months if they are still unemployed. Not likely.
Will the people on standard jobseekers be happy to be treated as second class citizens. Not likely.
Will the thousands of extra staff employed in the health and other public services be happy to lose their jobs when things quieten down. Not likely.
Our financial position is going to be very ugly looking by the end of the year, much worse than the financial crash a decade ago.

Wanderer78

Roger_007 wrote: »

I don’t think the rules of basic economics have been observed. What is going to happen to the special Covid unemployment payment. Once you’ve given it you cannot take it away. Will the people in receipt of that payment be reduced to standard jobseekers in six months if they are still unemployed. Not likely.
Will the people on standard jobseekers be happy to be treated as second class citizens. Not likely.
Will the thousands of extra staff employed in the health and other public services be happy to lose their jobs when things quieten down. Not likely.
Our financial position is going to be very ugly looking by the end of the year, much worse than the financial crash a decade ago.

a lot of neoclassical economics is nonsense anyway

Idbatterim

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Google will be fine. There will be more use of their cloud services by business, which is not funded by advertising. By and large tech will be fine, which suits Ireland.

DIRT tax remains high. Why do you wish to penalise people who save? Putting something by should be encouraged not penalised.

as a way to encourage people to save less, I am not saying I think its a good idea, I am saying its something the government, might consider...

Snow Garden

/\/ollog wrote: »

Don't a lot of US pharma companies employ here?
Surely they'll be the big winners here, how would that factor in?

I think MedTech will do well in the short-medium term but demand for their products will also reduce as the world economy shrinks.

I think IT will also suffer due to a reduction in customer demand. I saw evidence of new services contract/deals being shelved at the end of Q1.
When will the business confidence return for negotiations to open again? Not in 2020.

Risteard81

manonboard wrote: »

What per say, would you do if in his position? to combat this pandemic and ensure the welfare of the people?
Keeping in mind, you cant behave like a dictator. You'd need to listen to the medical experts telling you to lock down, whilst simultaneously respecting the rules of the EU and basic economics.

The EU does not have to be listened to. It is an illegal organisation stealing Irish sovereignty and must be destroyed.

saabsaab

Extra taxation might be the wrong thing to do now and furher drive a depression, especially that the EU have approved 'Covid' bonds.

Dravokivich

Risteard81 wrote: »

It's not being misused. This criminal is ruling through diktats issued over the television. It is an affront to democracy. In every respect this is totalitarianism.

You're talking about a minority government that is in talks to form a partnership with a competitor and reach out to other opposition parties to support them.

It doesnt fit this description:

of or relating to a centralized government that does not tolerate parties of differing opinion and that exercises dictatorial control over many aspects of life.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/totalitarian

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Risteard81 wrote: »

It's not being misused. This criminal is ruling through diktats issued over the television. It is an affront to democracy. In every respect this is totalitarianism.

This is a guess: you don't like Leo and blame him for everything in order to confirm your bias?

Xertz

Snow Garden wrote: »

I think MedTech will do well in the short-medium term but demand for their products will also reduce as the world economy shrinks.

I think IT will also suffer due to a reduction in customer demand. I saw evidence of new services contract/deals being shelved at the end of Q1.
When will the business confidence return for negotiations to open again? Not in 2020.

It's a mixed bag for IT. Some companies products, particularly anything to do with networking/cloud computing, internet infrastructure, online payment processing etc is all in high demand.

I could see a slump for companies selling consumer hardware, which could mean Apple, but then it occupies a high end niche, so it might not be that badly impacted.

The global impact on consumer demand will also largely depend on the global response by various major powers : US, EU, China and also the central banks and so on.

As yet, we just don't know where things will be in a few months. This whole situation is unprecedented and unpredictable.

Xertz

Also as for blaming government policy on Debenhams' closure? It's a UK business, in a dying industry (mid-market department store), with a rather bland product and it's owned by US hedge funds that has already been in administration and is currently £600m in debt. Even a slight breeze could have caused that company to fold.

There are quite a few 'high street' retailers that have been teetering on the brink for the last few years due to the move towards online shopping and also quite a few who were only barely over the 2008 era recession. So, I would suspect there'll be quite a few high street retail casualties.

Jizique

Xertz wrote: »

Also as for blaming government policy on Debenhams' closure? It's a UK business, in a dying industry (mid-market department store), with a rather bland product and it's owned by US hedge funds that has already been in administration and is currently £600m in debt. Even a slight breeze could have caused that company to fold.

There are quite a few 'high street' retailers that have been teetering on the brink for the last few years due to the move towards online shopping and also quite a few who were only barely over the 2008 era recession. So, I would suspect there'll be quite a few high street retail casualties.

Debenhams was always likely to fail, just look at the share price recently.
Even look at M&S. Or Macy’s and any of the other US retailers. Business models make zero sense any more.

Xertz

Jizique wrote: »

Debenhams was always likely to fail, just look at the share price recently.
Even look at M&S. Or Macy’s and any of the other US retailers. Business models make zero sense any more.

M&S is one that's always worried me. They could have been a huge online retailer. They've the perfect lineup of grocery products for going online and they've a clothing retail business that's similarly easy to put online, but they never really made much of a go of any of that and just stuck to what has been an increasingly stale looking retail model.

I like M&S but when you walk into a store it does have this sense of drab that stores that have been making a huge effort to move with the times e.g. Dunnes, simply doesn't have.

I think we'll see a major reconfiguration of Main Street, High Street and Shopping Centre retail and unfortunately that's going to result in job losses.

There was a slow burn change going on, but that's just been jumped forward 5 to 10 years due to COVID 19.

Pa ElGrande

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1rpVMKz2S0

Starts - 2 minutes 47 seconds in.

Opinions of a Boeing 737 pilot


1: Will the current crisis lead to a complete and fundamental collapse of the Aviation business as we know it?

2: What will happen to all the aircraft that are on order from Boeing and Airbus? What will happen to the rest of the existing fleets of Aircraft?

3: What will happen to the ticket prices as this crisis develops?

Balf

Another downer of a story.

Coronavirus: 'World faces worst recession since Great Depression'

Would the virus be worse that this, if met with less extreme measures? It would fecking want to be. We are absolutely making ****e of the place.

Idbatterim

Balf wrote: »

Another downer of a story.

Coronavirus: 'World faces worst recession since Great Depression'

Would the virus be worse that this, if met with less extreme measures? It would fecking want to be. We are absolutely making ****e of the place.

thank god other countries, that arent hyper conservative, are trying relaxing restrictions and we can observe the outcomes...

Zenify

Idbatterim wrote: »

hyper conservative

I prefer the word intelligent... or caring about life rather than money

Dravokivich

Dravokivich wrote: »

This seems to be a very popular word to misuse lately, or are people just trying to incite others to pitch forks and torches at dusk?

Pretty much. Just shows how little they know of the world outside of western countries.

Horsebox9000

Anyone else shudder at the thought of what our economy would look like in 6 months if the Shinners were at the wheel. Yikes

Wanderer78

Horsebox9000 wrote:

Anyone else shudder at the thought of what our economy would look like in 6 months if the Shinners were at the wheel. Yikes

We ve no way of knowing what this reality would be like, because it ll probably never happen, it could be worse or better, we ll simply never know, your feers are effectively baseless, but as others have said, if we head straight back into more conservative economic thinking, such as balancing budgets, and austerity etc, yea, things will get very very scary indeed.

Yurt2

Wanderer78 wrote: »

We ve no way of knowing what this reality would be like, because it ll probably never happen, it could be worse or better, we ll simply never know, your feers are effectively baseless, but as others have said, if we head straight back into more conservative economic thinking, such as balancing budgets, and austerity etc, yea, things will get very very scary indeed.

Indeed, I shudder more at the prospect of those clinging to economic orthodoxies they've copied and pasted from others leading us.

"We all partied" ; "magic money tree" ; "tightening belts"

Expect to see a resurgence of these canards over the next few years.

Burning the village to save it comes to mind.