CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

bekker

Deleted User wrote: »

But going by the 80/14/6 percentage breakdown thats been used to divide mild/severe/critical cases up to now here, wouldn’t we have 14,000 severe cases and 6000 critical cases by now, ie, our health system would be utterly swamped?

AKAIK that's confirmed cases, i.e. tested positive on the basis of (triaged in Ireland) self-reporting.

Generally accepted is 60/1 infected/confirmed, personally believe it's probably far higher.

So 14% of 40k = 5.6k, and 6% of 40k = 2.4k. But it has been wild in this country since late Feb. so who knows.

We need hard data to say with any accuracy and we keep being fed ****e. The only certain figure is of the dead.

threeball

MipMap wrote: »

During the famine food was exported from Ireland.


Why do people think that a US company, based in Ireland, would serve our
needs first?


Do they Think our government would stand up to Trump?

That wasn't my point. But I don't expect us to keep many of the units made. We will keep some. People in Galway are not going to risk getting coronavirus so the product they make bypasses their granny and goes to trump. If that happens I expect they'll down tools and go home.

MipMap

kowloon wrote: »

Plenty of people with health conditions to take up the slack.

By "Taking up the Slack" do you mean "Dying in Agony"

Sam Quentin

Talisman wrote: »

Would love to see something like this for mapping the potential fallout from the Cheltenham Festival.

https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/status/1242628347034767361

This is a perfect example of fake news. All the graphics all the lighting...so fecking fake and modern technology crap....
That absolute shíte doesn't even make one IOTA if even only half of those at the beach were infected. Which is an impossibility....
Remember folks infection rates are a small percentage of any population and death rates an even smaller percentage. Keep up the social distancing and keep safe,. you're doing a great job..

BorneTobyWilde

john4321 wrote: »

Why would they get off the aircraft? Not sure what you are trying to push here?

I'm guessing its someone picking up on the BS from people like this calling the whole thing a false flag.

https://twitter.com/gemmaod1/status/1244026466083450881?s=20

What would these people expect to do in Ireland, roam the empty streets?

wakka12

Sam Quentin wrote: »

This is a perfect example of fake news. All the graphics all the lighting...so fecking fake and modern technology crap....
That absolute shíte doesn't even make one IOTA if even only half of those at the beach were infected. Which is an impossibility....
Remember folks infection rates are a small percentage of any population and death rates an even smaller percentage. Keep up the social distancing and keep safe,. you're doing a great job..

What do you mean? The graphic was not to show the spread of infection but to show how interconnected our world is and how widely disperesed those people at one beach became after going home, and the impact that could have countrywide and worldwide if even some of them were infected

sheepsh4gger

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/shipments-of-urns-in-wuhan-raise-questions-about-chinas-coronavirus-reporting/

humberklog

sheepsh4gger wrote: »

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/shipments-of-urns-in-wuhan-raise-questions-about-chinas-coronavirus-reporting/

Any chance you can give a brief description of what you're linking to?

MipMap

humberklog wrote: »

Any chance you can give a brief description of what you're linking to?

No too much to ask

pH

Coyote wrote: »

an interesting brake down of how many cases based on a death rate or 1% and 3%
if you believe that 1-3% die from covid19, then you can workout how many cases there should be right now without any testing
there is a 7-10 day delay allowing for people getting sick and the avg time to death from turning up at hospital
if you look at the UK who we know are not testing a lot they should have maybe 100,000K cases, where if you look at south Korea it shows about 14K cases for a recorded 10K
Ireland is not too bad with 2.4K confirmed but maybe 3.6K based on 1% rate.
all of this is not 100% correct and should not be read like that it's more about trying to estimate how many cases there could be.

Surely the cases number in the 3% column should be smaller than the cases number in the 1% column.

Take Italy for example, if there have been 10,000 deaths and a death occurs in 3% of cases then the number of cases is around 330,000.

Sam Quentin

Sam Quentin wrote: »

This is a perfect example of fake news. All the graphics all the lighting...so fecking fake and modern technology crap....
That absolute shíte doesn't even make one IOTA if even only half of those at the beach were infected. Which is an impossibility....
Remember folks infection rates are a small percentage of any population and death rates an even smaller percentage. Keep up the social distancing and keep safe,. you're doing a great job..

wakka12 wrote: »

What do you mean? The graphic was not to show the spread of infection but to show how interconnected our world is and how widely disperesed those people at one beach became after going home, and the impact that could have countrywide and worldwide if even some of them were infected

I know what it is and I know what it relates to..
I also know the negative narrative behind it and why the individual whent to the bother of ' producing' it!?

Coyote

Coyote wrote: »

an interesting brake down of how many cases based on a death rate or 1% and 3%
if you believe that 1-3% die from covid19, then you can workout how many cases there should be right now without any testing
there is a 7-10 day delay allowing for people getting sick and the avg time to death from turning up at hospital
if you look at the UK who we know are not testing a lot they should have maybe 100,000K cases, where if you look at south Korea it shows about 14K cases for a recorded 10K
Ireland is not too bad with 2.4K confirmed but maybe 3.6K based on 1% rate.
all of this is not 100% correct and should not be read like that it's more about trying to estimate how many cases there could be.

some interesting comparison
France has 2314 deaths but only recorded 37575 cases
France has 64 times as many deaths but only 15 times as many cases as Ireland, if Frances confirmed cases matched Ireland with death rate they would have 148K cases

Netherlands and Belgium are other interesting comparison
both have about 9-10K cases but Netherlands have twice as many deaths
and the the Netherlands has 4 times as many deaths as S.Korea if there cases matched SK they should have 40K cases

Coyote

wakka12

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-25-year-old-dies-riverside-county-la-quinta/
A 25 year old pharmacist in Los Angeles with no underlying health conditions has died

Muahahaha

Beasty wrote: »

It takes a few days to turn round tests. They abandoned a backlog of 40,000 lined up for tests and started a new queue with many, possibly most, of those 40,000 "no longer qualifying". Some of those showing symptoms may well have recovered before they reached the top of that test queue.

Yes it's speculative, but based on information that is in the public domain. When you overlay the way this has spread in other jurisdictions, I do not consider it to be an unreasonable view. If they gave us the numbers tested and the dates tests were taken when releasing their updates things would be quite a lot clearer in terms of how this is evolving.

Now they do have that information, which I presume is informing their actions, including the further restrictions announced on Friday

Raises two questions-

-Did the HSE change the criteria for getting tested to avoid the 15,000 figure being met, possibly in order to avoid widespread panic?
-Has the 15,000 figure been met but we just dont know about it?

Theres a good chance we are at 15,000 now but if most wont die from it then it might make some sense for them to have manipulated the figures by reducing testing???

Ha Long Bay

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

What would these people expect to do in Ireland, roam the empty streets?

Which people? Its a flight stopover to refuel on the way to the states.

Woodsie1

john4321 wrote: »

Why would they get off the aircraft? Not sure what you are trying to push here?

I'm guessing its someone picking up on the BS from people like this calling the whole thing a false flag.

https://twitter.com/gemmaod1/status/1244026466083450881?s=20

Not pushing anything,I was genuinely curious what happens with passengers on a refueling stop.

Coyote

pH wrote: »

Surely the cases number in the 3% column should be smaller than the cases number in the 1% column.

Take Italy for example, if there have been 10,000 deaths and a death occurs in 3% of cases then the number of cases is around 330,000.

Hi Ph

you are correct sorry was looking at the 1% number and messed up the 3% calc
updated version attached

Coyote

had to update again sorry

sheepsh4gger

john4321 wrote: »

Which people? Its a flight stopover to refuel on the way to the states.

That's some fascist woman pedaling fake news. Got banned off Youtube not long ago. I came across nonsense from her before.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_genocide_conspiracy_theory

givyjoe

But but but, masks don't help...

https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1244010733714788352?s=19

OneColdHand

wakka12 wrote: »

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-25-year-old-dies-riverside-county-la-quinta/
A 25 year old pharmacist in Los Angeles with no underlying health conditions has died

From the headline: 'No Underlying Health Conditions Reported'

The important word is underlined and bolded.

I'm sure we have all heard the case of 21 year old spanish football coach who was reported to have no underlying conditions. It was later found that he had leukemia.

kilkenny31

Muahahaha wrote: »

Raises two questions-

-Did the HSE change the criteria for getting tested to avoid the 15,000 figure being met, possibly in order to avoid widespread panic?
-Has the 15,000 figure been met but we just dont know about it?

Theres a good chance we are at 15,000 now but if most wont die from it then it might make some sense for them to have manipulated the figures by reducing testing???

I think we need to have some trust. The HSE changed their testing criteria because they could cope with the number of people waiting on test and the positive results they were getting back were less than 10% so they changed the criteria so that they would hopefully get more positive cases from the tests that they were doing.

ThePopehimself

humberklog wrote: »

Is that fact? As in HSE approved info you're giving?

I was advising you from the HSE COVID-19 site.

'What to do if positive'. It goes on to say that;

" you can stop self-isolating when both of these apply to you:"
1. You have had no fever for 5 days
2. It has been 14 days since you first developed symptoms.

It says nothing about a retest to prove you are now negative. Apologies if my answer was incorrect. I genuinely meant to help. I haven't heard anything about retesting positives who recover, only about recovered patients who become symptomatic again.

Apologies if I have misinformed you.

Atlantic Dawn

wakka12 wrote: »

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/03/27/coronavirus-25-year-old-dies-riverside-county-la-quinta/
A 25 year old pharmacist in Los Angeles with no underlying health conditions has died

Some of this 'no underlying conditions' is wide of the mark to put it mildly, have seen cases of people who would fall in to the category of morbidly obese going by their most recent photos but given the status of 'no underlying conditions'.

Jimmy Garlic

Look up "event 201". The timing was impeccable. Thanks Bill.

MipMap

Muahahaha wrote: »

Raises two questions-

-Did the HSE change the criteria for getting tested to avoid the 15,000 figure being met, possibly in order to avoid widespread panic?
-Has the 15,000 figure been met but we just dont know about it?

Theres a good chance we are at 15,000 now but if most wont die from it then it might make some sense for them to have manipulated the figures by reducing testing???

OMG
There are still people in our society who think that the number of "confirmed cases" has anything to do with the actual number of people that are infected by the virus in the community!

Kermit.de.frog

Tomorrow's Business Post saying anyone who breaks the lock down rules faces large fines or imprisonment.

Coyote

Muahahaha wrote: »

Raises two questions-

-Did the HSE change the criteria for getting tested to avoid the 15,000 figure being met, possibly in order to avoid widespread panic?
-Has the 15,000 figure been met but we just dont know about it?

Theres a good chance we are at 15,000 now but if most wont die from it then it might make some sense for them to have manipulated the figures by reducing testing???

I don't believe they did it to hide anything, but too many people who just had a cough or sore throat were being booked in by GP
to get a test now you have to have some symptoms, fever being a large part as well as other. this is better as you are more chance to find the people who have covid19 and not have the system blocked up by 1,000's who just are not feeling 100%

Lackey

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The similarities end there.

Varadkar said St Patrick’s Day would go ahead
Varadkar stalled rugby cancellations
Varadkar said there would be no ‘lockdown’

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.rsvplive.ie/news/irish-news/taoiseach-leo-varadkar-says-full-21739836.amp

posters calling The President of the United States
Or anyone else for that matter a ‘retard’ says more about themselves than anyone else

Meanwhile the EU is in sh!t and our people are dying while Cuba China Russia and Albania send aid to Italy
But make sure to get digs in at Boris Johnson and Trump and Brexit because ‘orange man bad’ and English and Americans are all stupid?

Is that really what’s important right now?

cameramonkey

Does anyone have an up to date number of test carried out and processed in Ireland?