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Running, Corona Virus and Social Distancing

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,807 ✭✭✭skyblue46


    Chivito550 wrote: »
    69 increasing to 74

    5/69 = 7.24%

    I thought it was calculated on the percentage increase compared to previous day.

    If your method is the one to go by then you can already see the figures declining. No way will 33% be maintained as time goes on. In Sweden and Denmark we are starting to see increases of about 10%. The bigger the total number becomes, the more we will see the percentage come down using your method.

    Maybe this is where people don't see how the exponential increases are predicted...it's an increase of 30% on the previous day's total cases that is the expected number of new cases for the following day.

    That's how they get to 15,000 by March 31. By then there will be 5,000 cases the next day, 6,000 the day after etc...


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,120 ✭✭✭✭Pherekydes


    Chivito550 wrote: »
    69 increasing to 74

    5/69 = 7.24%

    I thought it was calculated on the percentage increase compared to previous day.

    If your method is the one to go by then you can already see the figures declining. No way will 33% be maintained as time goes on. In Sweden and Denmark we are starting to see increases of about 10%. The bigger the total number becomes, the more we will see the percentage come down using your method.

    Going by your method, the last five days would have been 95%, 3%, 35%, 28%, 7%.

    Makes no sense. You couldn't extrapolate from that at all. How could you make a prediction?

    New cases as a percentage of the previous total is the formula.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,080 ✭✭✭BeepBeep67




  • Registered Users Posts: 7,695 ✭✭✭Chivito550


    skyblue46 wrote: »
    Maybe this is where people don't see how the exponential increases are predicted...it's an increase of 30% on the previous day's total cases that is the expected number of new cases for the following day.

    That's how they get to 15,000 by March 31. By then there will be 5,000 cases the next day, 6,000 the day after etc...

    I hope Paddy Power are as confident as you on 15000 by 31 March, as I'd very much like the odds I'd be getting on the contrary so. We will reconvene in 12 days.

    To be at 15000 by 31 March means having an infection rate per capita 5-6 times that of Italy right now (who are two weeks ahead of us, so a good comparison).

    I don't buy it.

    EDIT: Not that I would ever bet on such things like this, just to be absolutely clear. Only highlighting a point that I don't see 15k happening. Time will tell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,447 ✭✭✭Glencarraig


    Perfectly entitled to run on the path. Why don't your missus walk on the grass.

    Exactly, surely they dont expect me to get my Next% all muddy :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭SuspectZero


    its doubling every 3 days, no need to get tricky on the days, that way it's just clean and straightforward. Our current trajectory is still on line with Wuhan and Italy in terms of exponential growth when it comes to positive cases(much lower fatality rates though) along with The rest of Europe and the US. The only countries bucking the exponential growth curve are Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong.

    As a stat nerd, there seems to be no ryhme or reason to the figures though.

    Italy has an 8.6% fatality rate
    Germany has a .2% fatality rate
    Ireland has a .5% fatality rate(this could possibly rise due to a mean of 20 days from infection to fatality which will cause a lag from positive cases growing first)

    Another interesting one, Japan has only seen a doubling of cases every 7 days(second lowest infection rate) despite having the oldest population in the World. This despite having a 57 day period between patient zero been discovered and strict guidelines been put in place which is a longer period than Italy did yet much lower cases and fatality rates. So basically, nothing makes sense

    These are all based on the assumption that the official numbers are correct of course and not been hidden.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,447 ✭✭✭Glencarraig


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    Local park here (deer park) is full of runners in groups of four and five. Was out for a stroll yesterday with the missus and told them to cop the hell on and respect the rules. Also why can't they run on the grass and not on the paths nobody wants some self entitled oink running past them sweating andblowing snot out of their nose.

    My local park is full of kamikaze kids on scooters/bicycles/skates with parents who are too busy with their head stuck in their phones to notice how much mayhem the brats are causing not just to runners but other park users in general and dont get me started on those who think it's perfectly ok to completely block the paths with 3 abreast prams while they stop to chat to Mary from up the road who they have not seen for at least 24 hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,807 ✭✭✭skyblue46


    Chivito550 wrote: »
    I hope Paddy Power are as confident as you on 15000 by 31 March, as I'd very much like the odds I'd be getting on the contrary so. We will reconvene in 12 days.

    To be at 15000 by 31 March means having an infection rate per capita 5-6 times that of Italy right now (who are two weeks ahead of us, so a good comparison).

    I don't buy it.

    EDIT: Not that I would ever bet on such things like this, just to be absolutely clear. Only highlighting a point that I don't see 15k happening. Time will tell.

    I don't really like the use of the word confident...I hope that the calculations based on other countries are not accurate but I fear they will be based on what I see on the streets from day to day....social distancing seems to be something only applied to strangers, seemingly family and friends are guaranteed to be virus free in many minds.

    As Suspect Zero has said some of the stats are difficult to square with each other but in any case we are barely scratching the surface yet....whether the 15k is reached on 29/3 or 5/4 is a minor detail. It will still only be a small fraction of what lies ahead.

    Edit: 191 new cases today....about a 50% increase on yesterday. That's worrying.


  • Registered Users Posts: 946 ✭✭✭KSU


    skyblue46 wrote: »
    Edit: 191 new cases today....about a 50% increase on yesterday. That's worrying.

    This upshot was anticipated. Testing criteria changed in the last few days meaning that larger numbers were being tested. We are now starting to see the impact of these test results starting to filter through into the results. Expect this sort of rapid increase for the next few days till the testing criteria is comparable day to day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,695 ✭✭✭Chivito550


    KSU wrote: »
    This upshot was anticipated. Testing criteria changed in the last few days meaning that larger numbers were being tested. We are now starting to see the impact of these test results starting to filter through into the results. Expect this sort of rapid increase for the next few days till the testing criteria is comparable day to day.

    The upshot is that only 6 people are in the serious category (plus 3 deaths), so the increased testing is picking up a lot of mild cases which otherwise wouldn't be detected. This is a good thing. South Korea tested extensively and they seemed to have now got things relatively under control, with a very low death rate. Let's hope for the same here.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Exactly, surely they dont expect me to get my Next% all muddy :D

    Probably mug u if they knew the price of them


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    skyblue46 wrote: »
    I don't really like the use of the word confident...I hope that the calculations based on other countries are not accurate but I fear they will be based on what I see on the streets from day to day....social distancing seems to be something only applied to strangers, seemingly family and friends are guaranteed to be virus free in many minds.

    As Suspect Zero has said some of the stats are difficult to square with each other but in any case we are barely scratching the surface yet....whether the 15k is reached on 29/3 or 5/4 is a minor detail. It will still only be a small fraction of what lies ahead.

    Edit: 191 new cases today....about a 50% increase on yesterday. That's worrying.

    More testing getting carried out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Its the younger generation that seems to think it's a joke. Really need to clamp down on them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,807 ✭✭✭skyblue46


    Its the younger generation that seems to think it's a joke. Really need to clamp down on them.

    It's more than that judging from some of the downplaying of the situation I'm reading. I've already heard grown adults discuss whether it's worth spending billions worldwide and throwing Europe into mass unemployment and recession just to add a few years to the lives of a minuscule percentile of the population who are already either very old or very sick. Natural selection they say....:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,695 ✭✭✭Chivito550


    skyblue46 wrote: »
    It's more than that judging from some of the downplaying of the situation I'm reading. I've already heard grown adults discuss whether it's worth spending billions worldwide and throwing Europe into mass unemployment and recession just to add a few years to the lives of a minuscule percentile of the population who are already either very old or very sick. Natural selection they say....:(

    Utterly appalling. I really hope that's just the opinion of a small minority.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,807 ✭✭✭skyblue46


    Chivito550 wrote: »
    Utterly appalling. I really hope that's just the opinion of a small minority.

    It was a conversation I overheard in a coffee shop...eight 35-40 year olds...They were also querying why the world didn't come to a standstill to save the 650,000 who die annually of flu or the 27 million who die of starvation...


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,695 ✭✭✭Chivito550


    skyblue46 wrote: »
    It was a conversation I overheard in a coffee shop...eight 35-40 year olds...They were also querying why the world didn't come to a standstill to save the 650,000 who die annually of flu or the 27 million who die of starvation...

    Wrong done elsewhere is no justification to do wrong here also.

    It would be nice though if after this is done and things return to normal, we all extend our humanity towards people in danger of dying from things like extreme poverty, homelessness and addiction. How many COVID 19 social media warriors walk past people sleeping rough on the streets without batting an eyelid. Quite a few I imagine. Hypocrisy is alive.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,807 ✭✭✭skyblue46


    Chivito550 wrote: »
    Wrong done elsewhere is no justification to do wrong here also.

    It would be nice though if after this is done and things return to normal, we all extend our humanity towards people in danger of dying from things like extreme poverty, homelessness and addiction. How many COVID 19 social media warriors walk past people sleeping rough on the streets without batting an eyelid. Quite a few I imagine. Hypocrisy is alive.

    True...this isn't the thread for it but it does raise questions alright...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    My local park is full of kamikaze kids on scooters/bicycles/skates with parents who are too busy with their head stuck in their phones to notice how much mayhem the brats are causing not just to runners but other park users in general and dont get me started on those who think it's perfectly ok to completely block the paths with 3 abreast prams while they stop to chat to Mary from up the road who they have not seen for at least 24 hours.

    Yeap total tools. Just like the runners running in groups taking up the whole footpath.

    The thread is about runners not prams etc..


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,236 ✭✭✭✭Burkie1203


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    Yeap total tools. Just like the runners running in groups taking up the whole footpath.

    My experience has been groups of women with prams with other kids blocking 5m wide paths recently. I've been out twice since last thursdays with agroup and we have been well able to manage to keep social distancing. Think a lot of it comes down to people being ignorant or "it won't happen to me" attitude


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    Yeap total tools. Just like the runners running in groups taking up the whole footpath.

    The thread is about runners not prams etc..

    Tonight running across a bridge in local park. 3 prams blocking the bridge. You cant account for stupidity


  • Registered Users Posts: 975 ✭✭✭pc11


    its doubling every 3 days, no need to get tricky on the days, that way it's just clean and straightforward. Our current trajectory is still on line with Wuhan and Italy in terms of exponential growth when it comes to positive cases(much lower fatality rates though) along with The rest of Europe and the US. The only countries bucking the exponential growth curve are Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong.

    As a stat nerd, there seems to be no ryhme or reason to the figures though.

    Italy has an 8.6% fatality rate
    Germany has a .2% fatality rate
    Ireland has a .5% fatality rate(this could possibly rise due to a mean of 20 days from infection to fatality which will cause a lag from positive cases growing first)

    Another interesting one, Japan has only seen a doubling of cases every 7 days(second lowest infection rate) despite having the oldest population in the World. This despite having a 57 day period between patient zero been discovered and strict guidelines been put in place which is a longer period than Italy did yet much lower cases and fatality rates. So basically, nothing makes sense

    These are all based on the assumption that the official numbers are correct of course and not been hidden.

    The German figures are a joke. Apparently they only count people diagnosed before death and never test for coronavirus in people who have died.

    It's simply not plausible for Italy to have fatality rate 10x Germany's even allowing for how swamped they are. The Lombardy health system was well known to be world-class.

    Many countries' stats are not to be trusted and certainly can't be used for direct comparisons as they are all doing and counting things differently.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    pc11 wrote: »
    The German figures are a joke. Apparently they only count people diagnosed before death and never test for coronavirus in people who have died.

    It's simply not plausible for Italy to have fatality rate 10x Germany's even allowing for how swamped they are. The Lombardy health system was well known to be world-class.

    Many countries' stats are not to be trusted and certainly can't be used for direct comparisons as they are all doing and counting things differently.

    Uk testing was a joke but changing it now


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,435 ✭✭✭✭Murph_D


    Tonight running across a bridge in local park. 3 prams blocking the bridge. You cant account for stupidity

    Really don’t understand the problem. It’s a park, not a motorway. You can break stride, say “hello ladies” and ease through. No harm done. :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,236 ✭✭✭✭Burkie1203


    Murph_D wrote: »
    Really don’t understand the problem. It’s a park, not a motorway. You can break stride, say “hello ladies” and ease through. No harm done. :rolleyes:

    I think the point being made is about the lack of social distancing


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,388 ✭✭✭laura_ac3


    Murph_D wrote: »
    Really don’t understand the problem. It’s a park, not a motorway. You can break stride, say “hello ladies” and ease through. No harm done. :rolleyes:

    Unconscious bias there D. Presuming that they're ladies. The poster never indicated that this particular group were :):)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Murph_D wrote: »
    Really don’t understand the problem. It’s a park, not a motorway. You can break stride, say “hello ladies” and ease through. No harm done. :rolleyes:

    Well considering social distancing is recommended, there is a problem.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,435 ✭✭✭✭Murph_D


    laura_ac3 wrote: »
    Unconscious bias there D. Presuming that they're ladies. The poster never indicated that this particular group were :):)

    Guilty - image in head from the other post that mentioned ‘women with prams’. Social distancing point accepted.


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 16,112 Mod ✭✭✭✭adrian522


    Just be thankful if you are able to run, I'm currently stuck at home, with respiratory symptoms among others so no exercise and no leaving the house :(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,849 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Murph_D wrote: »
    Guilty - image in head from the other post that mentioned ‘women with prams’. Social distancing point accepted.

    But I do get annoyed when people block the only way by, so they can chat. Like why do people stop in front of doors to chat and block it?


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