CoVid-19 Part VII - 169 cases ROI (2 deaths) 45 in NI (as of 15 March) *Read OP*

Funsterdelux

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

thats about right,

someone posted a tweet earlier
herd immunity: 47 million infected, 1 million deaths, + further 8 million requiring critical care

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238549442258763776?s=21

Basically eldercide/underlying conditionscide

threeball

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

This decision has Dominic Cummings written all over it.

No doubt Goebbels is involved too.

4068ac1elhodqr

ITman88 wrote: »

Seems to be the old and vulnerable will die, thus who survives has immunity, and has kids with possibly the same immunity.

Not exactly, 14day period for immunity (anti-bodies).

The young adults may also suffer reduced 'reproduction' capability, the virus (may) attack/damage the testes, depends on each particular case.
Then there's the 2021 v1.0 vaccine....

Looks like Greta and the Georgia Guidestones folks will get their way in the end.
Bit more extra space on the beaches of san tropez.

retro:electro

Strazdas wrote: »

Stuff about the Army is just regular procedure : needing extra manpower and pairs of hands to help during the partial lockdown.

It's absolutely nothing to do with martial law, curfews, riots etc

Exactly. They get the same kind of instruction during storms and floods

sterz

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Without spooking people too much, I think the Government needs to hammer home the message every single fkn day. Some are far too complacent, as others have said. Not a good look.

We have to do this together and for the common good, painful as it may seem.

Sorry for the lecture, but am fed up with people just laughing it off.

I know it's on the news 24 hours a day but walking around the city centre you wouldn't think that there's any major event going on.

Really think they should be pushing what needs to be done e.g. using advertising space etc to hammer it home.

Strazdas

Strazdas wrote: »

Stuff about the Army is just regular procedure : needing extra manpower and pairs of hands to help during the partial lockdown.

It's absolutely nothing to do with martial law, curfews, riots etc

I assumed so

Its a great resource to have,given the way people treat it with distain,hopefully its reputation will be enhanced by any action it needs doing

Strazdas

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

thats about right,

someone posted a tweet earlier
herd immunity: 47 million infected, 1 million deaths, + further 8 million requiring critical care

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238549442258763776?s=21

If the herd immunity thing starts to go belly up, our border with the UK would be sealed within five minutes. It would be like having northern Italy on our doorstep.

Sephiroth_dude

Christ a new thread in a day! must be a record!

threeball

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Basically eldercide/underlying conditionscide

Save billions for a tanking economy post brexit.

Funsterdelux

Happy4all wrote: »

Still secrecy about locations?

It wont matter soon enough, they ll stop giving us numbers too.

ihdxwz4a3pem9j

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

What's this "herd immunity" business they are on about in the UK?

I thought herd immunity was when enough individuals survived to ensure the survival of the herd.

That means that lots of individuals can die, but as long as the herd survives its got "herd immunity".

Am I wrong on that interpretation?

Herd immunity, basically means that if a large proportion of individuals are immune to a contagious disease (either via vaccination- e.g. measles, or prior exposure- e.g. chickenpox (so they develop the infection and then fight it)), then the entire population have some protection from the infection. If there is herd immunity over a prolonged period of time, then the disease eventually becomes eradicated.

This makes several assumptions:
1. That the people will need to develop and fight the coronavirus first
2. That a person cannot be reinfected with coronavirus (i.e. the strain that infects us remains fairly stable over time)
*** There are several case reports of people reinfected. We do not have sufficient evidence to make point 2.

Hope that this answers your question

darjeeling

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

What's this "herd immunity" business they are on about in the UK?

I thought herd immunity was when enough individuals survived to ensure the survival of the herd.

That means that lots of individuals can die, but as long as the herd survives its got "herd immunity".

Am I wrong on that interpretation?

Herd immunity is a key principle of vaccination.

If you immunise a high enough proportion of people then each person who catches an infectious disease will come into contact with few enough susceptible people to stop the disease from spreading. [edit - that protects even the people who aren't immune from catching the disease, hence the 'herd immunity']

The proportion required depends on how transmissible the disease is. For measles, which is extremely contagious, as much as 95% of the population must be immune to stop spread, but for this new virus it might be nearer 60%.

With no vaccine, the only way to get to 60% immunity is by people getting infected and recovering.

I can't see the UK reaching >50% immunity within 8 months without the NHS coming under intolerable strain, given what we've already seen in Italy.

threeball

Strazdas wrote: »

If the herd immunity thing starts to go belly up, our border with the UK would be sealed within five minutes. It would be like having northern Italy on our doorstep.

The ni assembly should act now but the DUP will shoot themselves in the foot yet again.

ITman88

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Incredible what they have done. Using mobile phone tracking to help identify where infected people have been. And keeping the public informed where and when cases pop up. I still think a big lesson that will be learnt is cutting out this east or west of the country sh1t

They’re have also preserved the economy, no schools closed in Singapore and no unnecessary absence from work.
Asia will be the global economic superpower when this is finished with, I hate to imagine Ireland in a few months

Darc19

Cw85 wrote: »

Anyone else here have friends or family on the Guards and Army that are hearing what I'm hearing?

You mean the bullsh1t fakebook and whatsapp recording that some fools are believing?

My neighbor is a high level member of garda and he's giving me a hand tomorrow cutting down some trees.

whisky_galore

whisky_galore wrote: »

Basically, anyone who is a drain on the treasury expires.

Whats to stop.this virus killing rich people


Like its a terrible decision,but pedelling conspiracy theories helps noone

Funsterdelux

threeball wrote: »

Save billions for a tanking economy post brexit.

Brexit means infected

hetuzozaho

Hugh Massive Globe wrote: »

Speaking of phones, don't forget to decontaminate your phones regularly with disinfectants. They can harbour a lot of bugs

That's just Android phones

Sober Crappy Chemis

Funsterdelux wrote: »

It wont matter soon enough, they ll stop giving us numbers too.

Ah give over FFS

Yurt2

What's not captured in the S Korean data is that the major cluster of church/cult contained a large amount of young (particularly females) in its congregation, who are of course unlikely to find the virus fatal. Testing was directed heavily towards the church and their contact groups, who would have typically been young as well. The latest cluster there in call centre would you'd presume, be mostly younger workers, so there could be an element of sampling bias. They perhaps got lucky that their major outbreaks were among a more youthful section of the population.

Another variable is that the Korean health system has a huge amount of beds per head of population and they had very good systems in place to respond to this situation after learning from a bungled response to MERS a few years back. This wont be true of very many countries attempting to respond to the virus.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

I assumed so

Its a great resource to have,given the way people treat it with distain,hopefully its reputation will be enhanced by any action it needs doing

Indeed. And the Army has always been used during particular crises like extreme weather or strike action......it's nothing to do with martial law or anything sinister.

eeepaulo

If there is a massive outbreak in UK and we manage our health service at capacity will they not all just pile over here. The grandfather rule like.

ITman88

Faye Most Wrinkle wrote: »

Not exactly, 14day period for immunity (anti-bodies).

The young adults may also suffer reduced 'reproduction' capability, the virus (may) attack/damage the testes, depends on each particular case.
Then there's the 2021 v1.0 vaccine....

Looks like Greta and the Georgia Guidestones folks will get their way in the end.
Bit more extra space on the beaches of san tropez.

Grim.
Ara twill next grand sure something was bound to wipe us out

Harry Palmr

1st dalkey dalkey wrote: »

What's this "herd immunity" business they are on about in the UK?

I thought herd immunity was when enough individuals survived to ensure the survival of the herd.

That means that lots of individuals can die, but as long as the herd survives its got "herd immunity".

Am I wrong on that interpretation?

Rather than offering a glib reply I suggest you and others read this

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work

Wingman2010

Just back from a walk as I was working from home all day and I so needed to get out and about. All pubs I passed in Stoneybatter were packed! Similar story with the restaurants.

Not sure if its a similar story in town. I know people are entitled to head out as the pubs are all still open; well for now... but I have to ask what’s the point of closing all the schools etc if a lot of people are mingling in pubs??! To me it’s just crazy and ignorant.

cnocbui

hetuzozaho wrote: »

That's just Android phones

Even a virus wouldn't be seen dead with an iPhone.

SuperTortoise

darjeeling wrote: »

Herd immunity is a fundamental principle of vaccination.

If you immunise a high enough proportion of people then each person who catches an infectious disease will come into contact with few enough susceptible people to stop the disease from spreading.

The proportion required depends on how transmissible the disease is. For measles, which is extremely contagious, as much as 95% of the population must be immune to stop spread, but for this new virus it might be nearer 60%.

With no vaccine, the only way to get to 60% immunity is by people getting infected and recovering.

I can't see the UK reaching >50% immunity within 8 months without the NHS coming under intolerable strain, given what we've already seen in Italy.

I read several weeks ago on the BBC website of reports from Wuhan of thousands of patients being discharged from the hospitals and having to be re-admitted due to being infected a second time, if those reports are true then surely there is no such thing as herd immunity?

completedit

Where are the horror stories from Spain? Doesn’t seem to be a thing.

Wingman2010

Wingman2010 wrote: »

Just back from a walk as I was working from home all day and I so needed to get out and about. All pubs I passed in Stoneybatter were packed! Similar story with the restaurants.

Not sure if its a similar story in town. I know people are entitled to head out as the pubs are all still open; well for now... but I have to ask what’s the point of closing all the schools etc if a lot of people are mingling in pubs??! To me it’s just crazy and ignorant.

Temple Bar looks fairly busy too, had a look on the web cam. Not sure if busier or quieter than usual though

Strazdas

eeepaulo wrote: »

If there is a massive outbreak in UK and we manage our health service at capacity will they not all just pile over here. The grandfather rule like.

The Irish Sea border would be sealed immediately. No flights or ferries allowed between Britain and Ireland.