Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

JJayoo

gmisk wrote: »

No running down of aerlingus? Only seems fair

Ryanair is run by one Irish guy who has the power to shut **** down if he gave a ****.

owlbethere

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Good to see humans helping humans..

Nice one.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1237435123072667649

This is good news. Thanks

I wrote it here last night that China better step up after the mess the made.

Mellor

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

0.6% death rate in South Korea, 0.8% on that cruise ship where most were over 70, Italy figure based on their global figures that have only 1.4% of cases being under 19 which means they are missing loads and loads of v mild or asymptomatic cases in young people thus skewing figures. Date rate in a country forewarned will be less than 1% in all likelihood

S.Korea has had 58 deaths out of 305 outcomes.
The cruise ship still has a lot of severe cases.

Not you if your assuming all active cases recover or if your don’t understand how a statistics work.

Graces7

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Go in and kill them all. That's what they want.

That is an unacceptable view.

In the UK they advised not barring visits as that could cause loneliness in the old folk. They have a very real point. We do not know how long this will go on and separation from family and loved ones causes so much grief especially for old folk near the natural end of their life. Family is precious.

If visitors are masked etc , hands washed etc, the visits will be safe and bring great comfort.

NB are staff in the homes coming in on duty masked? If not what is the difference? They are coming in from the outside world and thus as "dangerous" as visitors. Same as doctors visiting etc.

otnomart

Cuckoo7 wrote: »

I don’t know if any of you watched the France 24 last night.
They had two french experts on the set and an American and Italian on videocon.
One of the french was very you have to measure your response... the other one was it’s just a flu.

Yes.
They are still holding the local elections (didn't they follow what just happened in Iran ???) and recommending voters to bring their own pen to the polling stations.

fr336

otnomart wrote: »

Thankfully, just earlier this evening the European Council agreed that the EU will jointly procure face masks and respirators for member states.

That's the UK screwed then

Quantum Erasure

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I see that UK are releasing a data visualisation tool to map geographical spread.

We don't need that of course, with only four options.

Ireland 2020 we have 78 genders but we only have four areas in the entire country.

post of the thread?

bekker

Italy
The analysis,out of 8342 positive cases at 9 March at 10 am, shows that 1.4% are under the age of 19, 22.0% are in the 19-50 range, 37.4% between 51 and 70 and 39.2% are over 70, for a median age of 65. 62.1% are men. There are 583 positive health workers.

The median time elapsed between the date of onset of symptoms and diagnosis is 3-4 days. 10% of cases are asymptomatic, 5% with few symptoms, 30% with mild symptoms, 31% are symptomatic, 6% have severe symptoms and 19% are critical. 24% of the cases examined are hospitalized. The analysis confirms that 56.6% of the deceased people are over 80 years old, and two thirds of them have 3 or more pre-existing chronic diseases.

This is the cohort who may be the spreaders 10% of cases are asymptomatic, 5% with few symptoms, 30% with mild symptoms, in the early stages probably not really bothered with those symptoms, I know I wouldn't have been. HOMI Milano international trade fair for design and interior decoration and furnishig took place Jan. 2020, >80k viitors, >1,400 exhibitors many Chinese.

CinemaGuy45

owlbethere wrote: »

This is good news. Thanks

I wrote it here last night that China better step up after the mess the made.

This is how you call for Chinese help.

igCorcaigh

Covid-19 outbreak: what do health experts mean by 'flattening the curve'?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/covid-19-coronavirus-flattening-the-curve?

Mic 1972

tom1ie wrote: »

Someone earlier posted a link to the breakdown of the Italian stats. I couldn’t open one link and the other link was Italian.
I translated it. Here’s some of the info:

10% of cases are asymptomatic, 5% with few symptoms, 30% with mild symptoms, 31% are symptomatic, 6% have severe symptoms and 19% are critical. 24% of the cases examined are hospitalized. The analysis confirms that 56.6% of the deceased people are over 80 years old, and two thirds of these have 3 or more pre-existing chronic diseases.

So that 56.6% of:

The analysis, out of 8342 positive cases at 9 March at 10 am, shows that 1.4% are under the age of 19, 22.0% are in the 19-50 range, 37.4% between 51 and 70 and 39.2% are over 70, for a median age of 65. 62.1% are men. There are 583 positive health workers.

They are mental stats.

Another important factor is that mild symptoms may become severe, we dont have any stats that indicate how many of those mild sick people eventually require hospital treatment

smelly sock

d51984 wrote: »

Still amazed Cheltenham went ahead. Money talks I suppose.

Arrogance is a main trait of the the horse racing culture.

fr336

Graces7 wrote: »

NB are staff in the homes coming in on duty masked? If not what is the difference? They are coming in from the outside world and thus as "dangerous" as visitors. Same as doctors visiting etc.

I heard that from next week GPs and GP staff will be masked here in UK so hopefully the same will be the case at care homes.

paul71

otnomart wrote: »

Germany had banned exports of face masks and other protective equipment and the French government had decided to take over production of protective masks.



Thankfully, just earlier this evening the European Council agreed that the EU will jointly procure face masks and respirators for member states.

There was a guy on Newstalk a view days ago from a factory in Kerry saying that their output is about 150,000 protective masks a week. No idea if this is adequate for our own needs.

nocoverart

fr336 wrote: »

Thank you for a reassuring post we need more like it

Yeah, like I’m not saying we should bury our heads in the sand but let’s focus on the positives too because there’s positives to be had.

delly

SpitfireIV wrote: »

So I have an underlying illness (heart failure), I'm relatively fit, active, mid thirties, everything is good, for now. Seems though I'm in the 'old age or those with underlying condition bracket' when it comes to the stats, and itd seem its not the most desirable percentage to be in!!

It's been portrayed almost as a near death sentence for me, but even with my condition could I still just get a mild strain or if I did contract it just be mildly ill? ie having a condition doesnt mean you're buggered??!

I spoke to my GP on this as my daughter is also in the underlying condition bracket. She said that while the underlying condition is a factor, the major point was the overall body health because of the condition. So if somebody was recovering from surgery or taking chemotherapy, then they would be in a much worse position, whereas if you are overall healthy, it's thought not to be as bad if you are under 60. It's all subjective of course, but that did give me some reassurance.

Loughc

The slow spread rate of the virus in Ireland seems to be a good indication.

The company I work for just sent an email saying they envision no closure days due to coronavirus so that’s something. Yay.

1641

Larbre34 wrote: »

The death rate worst scenario is based on

Population: 5 million

Estimated infection rate: 60% or 3 million

Mortality risk: 3% - 90,000 in the Republic or 125,000 on the island.

I can understand anxiety among the faithful around curtailed funeral practices but unfortunately this may become the new normal in the next 18 months. It doesn't mean funeral rites have to be set aside but there may be larger scale funerals of 5 or 6 people at a time, sent straight for cremation with very close family only permitted to be present.

If people have a faith then hopefully they can take comfort in it. For those that may be vulnerable it could be prudent to make proper arrangements for their wishes and succession.

I posted earlier today about modelling that was done in 2006. The results woud seem broadly consistent with these figures, given a current population of about 5 million and the apparent fatality rate of the coronavirus. What we need to hope for is that it is not as infectious as the assumption used in the 2006 model and maybe a lower fatality rate :

1641 wrote: »

I had a read of Stacking the Coffins re the Spanish Flu in Ireland (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Stacking-Coffins-Influenza-Revolution-Ireland/dp/1526122693)

It refers to some modelling done in 2006 by a expert group led by a Prof from the NVRL on the possible impact of another major Flu epidemic here. The figures may be of interest. Two scenarios, both based on an Irish pop of 4.23 million.

First scenario. A Flu with a clinical attack rate of 25% and a fatality rate of 0.55%. This predicted 3,217 deaths.

Second scenario. A Flu with a clinical attack rate of 50% and a fatality rate of 2.5%. This predicted 52,937 deaths.

The book's author suggested a possible problem with the model was that it was based on the pattern of spread of epidemics in England and Wales in 1957 and 1969-70. The suggestion is that the population density and dispersal here might produce different outcomes.

Still sobering figures, especially the second scenario, in which the fatality rate seems similar to this Covid. I am not sure about the infection rate? Also, I think our total pop (Republic) is closer to 5 million now.

Mic 1972

Joe Rogan new podcast about the virus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw

murphaph

Strazdas wrote: »

Good advice. Unless things turn apocalyptic and like something out of an end of days sci fi movie, the overwhelming number of Irish people will not die of anything corona related.

It sounds from this 'doctor on the ground's report that this is exactly what it's like in Lombardy right now:

https://threader.app/thread/1237142891077697538

Lombardy's health services would in normal times be far superior to the offerings in Ireland.

completedit

The whole Cheltenham thing seems so bizarre. But can see why people would just be like **** it and go for it. There’s no consensus about the measures we should be taking, even though avoiding a crowd such as the one attending Chettlenam seems an obvious one. But either daily life grinds to a halt or it doesn’t. At end of the day, society, or modern society isn’t set up to deal with such a threat.

CinemaGuy45

Loughc wrote: »

The slow spread rate of the virus in Ireland seems to be a good indication.

The company I work for just sent an email saying they envision no closure days due to coronavirus so that’s something. Yay.

Company looks very silly if it does not envision it.

That posts looks silly if you are disappointed if it does not happen.

ChikiChiki

FutureGuy wrote: »

The government needs to be one step ahead, not two behind.

2 step behind one step ahead as always...

What is it with these people that don't want to work for something.

Anyone who excuses tbe behavior in the past 10 years is a tool. Enjoy the new utopia you live in.

smelly sock

Does anyone actually believe a word the chinese say? To go from hundreds and thousands of cases on some days to 0 is BS in my book and they are trying to look after their economy.

amadangomor

paul71 wrote: »

There was a guy on Newstalk a view days ago from a factory in Kerry saying that their output is about 150,000 protective masks a week. No idea if this is adequate for our own needs.

They have all their output contracted to go to China from what I remember. Maybe time for the government to insist a percentage are sold here?

igCorcaigh

I'm sure this has been asked a zillion times...

But what income support do workers who have to stay at home either through symptoms (and subsequent isolation) or if the business shuts for a while?

Particularly about self isolation and not being able to get a med cert because GP visit is not recommended.

Anyone got a link to the recommended advice right now?

normanoffside

JJayoo wrote: »

Ryanair have suspended flights to and from Italy until April, but ****ing late but I suppose we couldn't expect Michael o Leary to miss out on making some cash by importing the virus, good lad mick

He didn't make much money as bookings were down and planes were mostly empty. It needed the government to step in and ban travel to Italy for airlines to be able to cancel as otherwise they would have been fined for not using their slots.

sparkle109

Not sure if it’s already been answered or not yet, but when China lift their restrictions are they expecting to manage the spread better? Will it not just spread exponentially again?

TheValeyard

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

What did the Germans do yesterday?

**shifty eyes at Poland**

Naggdefy

Loughc wrote: »

The slow spread rate of the virus in Ireland seems to be a good indication.

The company I work for just sent an email saying they envision no closure days due to coronavirus so that’s something. Yay.

You said early today you expected no more than 10 cases before it stopped progressing in Ireland. I don't find your posts on this issue credible. In fairness they usually are in other fields.