Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

Sigma101

Drumpot wrote: »

If numbers spike linear, does that not suggest that perhaps their ability to test x amount of people in a given period is probably prohibited? Like if I can only test 1000 people a day, I can never diagnose anymore then 1000 people. If my capacity to test increases as we get more resources to test, my ability to test and diagnose people will still be limited to the increase in testing capacity.

I think these numbers are dangerous to a degree as they are only figures of what we know for sure at any one time. They are always behind the spread so you get situations where “we only have two peopel infected in Ireland” that we all know is very unlikely to be the case.

I know what you're saying but if your ability to test is limited it will eventually show up with a high fatality rate relative to detected cases. There are no deaths in Germany. The "R-zero" in Germany is currently around 1. Once it drops below 1 you've defeated it.

Spain is following the same pattern at the moment:
https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Spain/0/b01ad58301b4da00b047bd8ab85b21c8b2fdc386.png

We live in hope.

cherryghost

Tordelback wrote: »

Conservative extrapolation from Johnson's figure of up to 80% infection level in the UK translates to 10.5 million requiring hospitalisation, of which 2.6 million require critical care/ICU. And well over 1 million deaths.

And that assumes an NHS that can cope with an additional 10 million seriously ill people. That seems very unlikely.

Same scenario here would imply around 90,000 deaths, even forgetting that we'd have to find 180,000 ICU beds from somewhere to keep it at that level.

Let's assume he's as utterly clueless as he usually is, and WASH YOUR FECKING HANDS AGAIN.

Sure he's out on a mission to acheive those figures. Running hospital to hospital shaking hands with everyone. Needs to fulfil his mandate

TomSweeney

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Mentioned earlier ...

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.

So has a R0 value less than the flu ???

I thought it was supposed to be way higher ?

Don't know who (pun ! ) to believe ...

Drumpot

Sigma101 wrote: »

I know want you're saying but if your ability to test is limited it will eventually show up with a high fatality rate relative to detected cases. There are no deaths in Germany. The "R-zero" in Germany is currently around 1. Once it drops below 1 you've defeated it.

Spain is following the same pattern at the moment:
https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Spain/0/b01ad58301b4da00b047bd8ab85b21c8b2fdc386.png

We live in hope.

I supppse with a maybe 2-4 week lag (depending on how quickly a person goes from infected to serious) we will prob start getting a better picture by the end of the month (certainly in countries where numbers are spiking)

KingBobby

TomSweeney wrote: »

Why , it's from a WHO source - https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

The WHO said on average incubation period of 5-6 days in this report, but also occurring between 1 to 14 days.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi4spCRw4DoAhVzRhUIHfwvANsQFjAEegQIBxAC&usg=AOvVaw1gO_RTfaIWQuEkjdvq_O7i

SeaBreezes

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

What a bizarre and stupid analogy for a gig. I was at the 1975 last night in the 3Arena, are you really inferring that 455 people are going to die after it? Jesus. Hysterical or what.

Sigh. I am sooo tired of the number of people using the words panic, hysteria and dismissing this virus. Educate yourself.

Those are the numbers from WHO i was making a point to illustrate WHY these events should be cancelled for a while. Yes if 13,000 get the virus then 455 will die, maybe more that is fact.

They might not be at the arena. They may be in hospital or fighting cancer, or diabetic or have heart issues. YOU may not know them directly. But you can infect others who infect them.


Large mass gatherings only spread the disease.

It's not a lot to ask that people curtail the entertainment for a little while.
Isn't your granny worth that at least?

igCorcaigh

laurah591 wrote: »

As a matter of interest (haven't watched his video) how did he calculate 60% figure? & dont intend to

Someone provided an estimate of 40pc to 70pc attack rate. Can't remember who now.

dan786

UK upto 53 with 2 new cases in Scotland.

igCorcaigh

TomSweeney wrote: »

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Mentioned earlier ...



So has a R0 value less than the flu ???

I thought it was supposed to be way higher ?

Don't know who (pun ! ) to believe ...

R0 for covid is less than flu.

rosiem

josip wrote: »

It would seem unlikely that yesterday's case is a student because we'd have heard by now of the HSE closing the school.
Wouldn't we?

Unless it’s from the same school ?

all about the mane

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Sigh. I am sooo tired of the number of people using the words panic, hysteria and dismissing this virus. Educate yourself.

Those are the numbers from WHO i was making a point to illustrate WHY these events should be cancelled for a while. Yes if 13,000 get the virus then 455 will die, maybe more that is fact.

They might not be at the arena. They may be in hospital or fighting cancer, or diabetic or have heart issues. YOU may not know them directly. But you can infect others who infect them.


Large mass gatherings only spread the disease.

It's not a lot to ask that people curtail the entertainment for a little while.
Isn't your granny worth that at least?

No...that is not a fact

Rob A. Bank

TomSweeney wrote: »

Why , it's from a WHO source - https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

The WHO director is saying that asymptomatic influenza victims can spread the disease, asymptomatic Covid-19 victims do not seem to do so.

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.

Taking the above to mean that isolation for 3 days is sufficient is pure unadultrated disinformation

Loafing Oaf

megabomberman wrote: »

Newstalk breakfast:

5 minute summary of the coronavirus, mostly centered on the new case, managed to dig out a Professor so lacking in conviction that he buckled when challenged on the impact to the economy of cancelling some flights from the four lock down regions of Italy. Obviously took time to quote the chief medical officer's outrageous statement that there are unlikely to be other cases in the country.

The 8.30 news bulletin had one update on coronavirus, the CMO's statement to be vigilant on coronavirus news on social media.

What was taking up the rest of the space included; a segment in single Sex schools, why teenagers are actually smelly, telling fat people they are fat doesn't help.

No mention of the escalating crisis in Europe or the UK going into war mode.

Shocking propaganda.

:rolleyes:
And of course if they gave it blanket coverage somebody else would be accusing them of propaganda to keep us all terrified

cnocbui

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The cracks are appearing in South Korea's health care system with 1,000s of coronavirus patients now waiting for beds.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-southkorea-idUSKBN20R05M

Edit can't link the story but it's on Reuters

And that is with them having the highest increase in bed numbers from 2000-2014 in the OECD at 7.5% while Ireland has had a decline of 6% - the worst of any OECD country.

Bob24

TomSweeney wrote: »

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Mentioned earlier ...



So has a R0 value less than the flu ???

I thought it was supposed to be way higher ?

Don't know who (pun ! ) to believe ...

When they say “it can be contained”, I assume they mean it can be contained if you do what China did. Thing is, I don’t see many other countries heading that direction. Maybe Korea and Singapore are to some extend, but the European continent as a whole isn’t nearly heading that direction. For exemple Northern Italy is fast becoming Europe’s Wuhan but yet it is probably still much easier to go from Milan to Dublin than going from Wuhan to Beijing, even though in the first case you have to cross international borders and an ocean.

Drumpot

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Someone provided an estimate of 40pc to 70pc attack rate. Can't remember who now.

The issue isn’t if 60%-80% of the world get infected, it’s the time between infections that appears to be more important. Those numbers over 12 months are more manageable over a longer period of time, but let’s say those numbers this year (as there could be a second wave at winter) could be very troublesome. If poorer countries and countries with bad healthcare end up in serious trouble that could equally bring on a bigger wave of infections. WHO said we are only going to be as effective as our weakest link.

I don’t think Dr John is scaremongering, I think he’s more knowledgable then most and he’s only giving examples of what might happen if we don’t start taking this seriously. You can talk about plans and taking action but not stopping events like soccer or a parade is not taking this threat seriously. These decisions will only increase the chance that more people will be infected. They are financial considerations being put ahead of common sense when tackling the virus.

WHO have been very very conserved in how they have communicated their message but it’s clear as it can be. Prepare yourself , prepare your population and make decisions that will help slow the spread. There is no stopping it, that’s not an ominous statement because most will be fine, but it will be more ominous if this spreads faster. So what sacrifices are we taking now to try and keep our infection number at 2?

I think this will end up worse then it could of been for numerous reasons, not least the delay of decisions to help contain and our lack of knowledge/resources to handle what’s coming.

weldoninhio

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

In all honestly Im torn on this one. Part of me thinks they’d be mad to let any mass gatherings go ahead. Saying that I’m due to go The Script on Saturday and I’m equally hoping it won’t be cancelled.

It’s a hard one - we have to take all warnings extremely seriously but you can’t stop living either.

Good GOD!! I think you're delirious!!

cnocbui

TomSweeney wrote: »

Have to be very careful with what I read and believe.

"Doctor" (Nurse) John was saying in a video yesterday that at least 60% of the global pop. will be infected within one year.
and overall 1% death rate.

thats 7.5B * 0.6 * 0.01 = 45 Million people die globally , In ireland this will be approx 4.5M * 0.6 * 0.01 = 27,000 deaths!!!

So far there is 3,200 deaths globally - 90% of those in China which was hit worst and is now stabilising - outside Wuhan not much deaths ...
I fail to see where these 44.97 Million deaths are gonna come from, 27K of that in Ireland alone.


HE'S TALKING SHIT!!! He's a scaremonger!!

He's understating the numbers, if anything, it's 3.4%, not 1%.

Funsterdelux

cherryghost wrote: »

India will spread like Iran, poor health system and infrastructure etc etc

The Untouchables might escape the worst

cnocbui

Hungary hasn't reported any cases. I'm sure Orban wouldn't allow it anyway. Hungary's Trump.

cnocbui

Funsterdelux wrote: »

The Untouchables might escape the worst

They touch things. They won't

schmoo2k

KingBobby wrote: »

The WHO said on average incubation period of 5-6 days in this report, but also occurring between 1 to 14 days.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi4spCRw4DoAhVzRhUIHfwvANsQFjAEegQIBxAC&usg=AOvVaw1gO_RTfaIWQuEkjdvq_O7i

Last nights statement was based on "latest data from China" - that report is a few weeks old.

TomSweeney

cnocbui wrote: »

He's understating the numbers, if anything, it's 3.4%, not 1%.

Right so you think that in the next year ~92,000 people in Ireland - 153 Million globally will die from this ?????




Yeah ... sure

Lashes28

So surprised the location of the newest case hasn't been shared. It took 0.2 seconds on the first case. They are loosing their sparkle 😅

ldy4mxonucwsq6

Lashes28 wrote: »

So surprised the location of the newest case hasn't been shared. It took 0.2 seconds on the first case. They are loosing their sparkle 😅

It has, they've said its a woman in the east of the country who recently travelled to northern Italy.

94% of deaths from this have occurred in China, very few deaths outside of there at the moment.

sbsquarepants

TomSweeney wrote: »

Right so you think that in the next year ~92,000 people in Ireland - 153 Million globally will die from this ?????




Yeah ... sure

Speaking in my capacity as an armchair epidemiologist - i'm going to predict this will be a whole load of nothing.

Every year we get one of these and they practically always amount to scaremongering. Swine flu was going to kill us, bird flu, sars, mers (or whatever it was called).

This will come, this will go - it will maybe leave 50 corpses behind it and 45 of those probably would have died of something else in that time anyway!

Naggdefy

Well 79 in Italy as of yesterday is enough.

Cilldara_2000

I don't think there has been much discussion of the potential for people with other health issues to be seriously impacted.

https://bdnews24.com/health/2020/03/04/no-way-out-in-china-coronavirus-takes-toll-on-other-patients

There's awful tragedies there where people would still be alive had coronavirus not used up scarce health resources.

SeaBreezes

all about the mane wrote: »

No...that is not a fact

Yes, that is a fact.
Go tell the world health organisation they have the CFR wrong then, 3.5% fatality rate..

banie01

TomSweeney wrote: »

Right so you think that in the next year ~92,000 people in Ireland - 153 Million globally will die from this ?????




Yeah ... sure

Barring a sudden improvement in the survival rate of known infected patients.
Yes, the numbers dying are very much predicated on the number of infected bit the mortality rate is known.

The WHO have announced it as 3.4%, while the UK for some reason announced it as under 1%?
On the totality of the numbers available to date, the UK is wrong and I'll lean into the WHO being more accurate in this instance.

Controlling the spread of infection will reduce the number of deaths, but will it affect the actual mortality rate amongst infected?
Doubtful IMO.