Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

gabeeg

Cupatae wrote: »

Your use of the word exponential has grown exponentially.:D

They're gonna call me the exponential guy

Well actually it will be probably quite a bit ruder than that

Timberrrrrrrr

One of my suppliers dropped me off 5 boxes of these bad boys today

banie01

iguana wrote: »

I think it will. Because the less people who become critically ill, the more hospital resources that can be directed to each individual critical and serious case. If every critically and seriously ill person can have a hospital bed and adequate ICU care, they have a better chance of survival. If 100s of seriously ill people are at home waiting for a bed or on a trolley in a corridor or some sort of makeshift hospital, their odds surely go down.

If memory serves you do have experience in this area?
Whereas I don't, apart from number crunching.

I'd take the view that controlling the spread and rate of infection will of course pay dividends in the overall number of deaths.

But those who do catch it in a controlled environment are far more likely to me in an at risk group or immuno-compromised?

That even with more life support and ICU resourcing available isn't going to bode well for the recovery rates IMO?
Already compromised population with an illness that causes aggressive pneumonia symptoms.

I don't think we are going to see anywhere near the number of deaths that some of the exponential or unchecked projections are predicting.

I do think however that the mortality rate is going to hold fairly constant thru the Pandemic phase.

tom1ie

schmoo2k wrote: »

These are from memory (but from trusted sources) - so take with a grain of salt:
* There was 1 reported re-infection case (Japan), but they may have never have been fully cured - so I would say unknown (but looking like there is natural immunity).

* Mostly assisted breathing - there has also been some success with plasma transfusions.

* Dunno - but the majority will be < 60 which is in the "safe" zone for survival (assuming no other contributing factors).

After I posted the original 3 questions there was a piece on sky news about China reporting 3 official cases of re-infection of c19.
The mortality rate in 50-59 is 1.3% for the general population. I presume it’d be higher in medical personnel?

megabomberman

Italy is completely out of control, it's very scary what's going on there, they have only 2,500 cases diagnosed but there are Italian infections popping up at a rates of 5+ in dozens of countries.

They won't be able to respond like China, there is a point where this thing can get out of hand, which is why we have to be super careful. We seem to be gambling that if a community infection doesn't pop up in our fairly low level of testing we'll be able to get the paddy's day economic boon out of the way before knuckling down to business. I hope I'm wrong because that is gambling with lives.

cnocbui

TomSweeney wrote: »

Right so you think that in the next year ~92,000 people in Ireland - 153 Million globally will die from this ?????




Yeah ... sure

I don't 'believe'. I look at what experts have said and do the sums. I don't like the results those sums deliver and hope that the postulated worst case scenario doesn't happen.

I was reading something yesterday by a hedge fund billionaire who was explaining that most people don't understand and can't process the idea of exponential growth and that is because we use linear concepts of progression and that these work so well, most of the time that when a non linear situation arises, our model of the world is unable to process and grasp the rare event so we just fail and underestimate the outcomes.

I hope your vision of the future is correct and that the experts are wrong. That would please me greatly.

Charles Babbage

iguana wrote: »

I think it will. Because the less people who become critically ill, the more hospital resources that can be directed to each individual critical and serious case. If every critically and seriously ill person can have a hospital bed and adequate ICU care, they have a better chance of survival. If 100s of seriously ill people are at home waiting for a bed or on a trolley in a corridor or some sort of makeshift hospital, their odds surely go down.

This is the critical point. If the demand on the health service can be kept within reasonable bounds and people receive the best treatment then the death rate will be minimised. If hospitals cannot cope then many more will die than need to. That is why there must be public health measures to ensure that things do not get out of control.

This seems perfectly obvious, yet many people don't seem to get it.

cnocbui wrote: »

I was reading something yesterday by a hedge fund billionaire who was explaining that most people don't understand and can't process the idea of exponential growth and that is because we use linear concepts of progression and that these work so well, most of the time that when a non linear situation arises, our model of the world is unable to process and grasp the rare event so we just fail and underestimate the outcomes.

Yet the conscept of "going viral" is known to every instagram user. It isn't that hard to understand.

Cuckoo7

A 4 year old girl confirmed positive in Madrid, her dad flew from Bergamo the 22nd of February, his wife has it too.

Living Off The Splash

Listening to Sean O'Rourke this morning it seems that people are wiping down seats, trays, safety belts etc as soon as they board the plane.

The air must be very heavy with alcohol fumes if the whole plane is doing it, almost chokingly so.

Let's hope that the toasted sandwich does not cause any problems with all the alcohol fumes in the air.

PIORUN

MD1990 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/lookner/status/1234952959051673602

my guess is Italy have at least 10,000 cases.

They are infecting so many other countries

and we have Italian rugby fans probably still travelling here at the weekend. I know the match was called off to stop mass gatherings but every case so far here has been from someone just back from Italy!

solidasarock

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

What is the best way forward ?

Some kind of basic screening at airports to catch cases inbound from hot spots / recommended self isolation for everyone else.

Restrictions on large public gathering

Literally ANYTHING other then "it will be fine. Just wash your hands"

Maybe tell Dublin Bus they dont have to jam 200 people per bus during rush hour.


We dont have to go full closed boarders. Just some basic cop on will do

Funsterdelux

cnocbui wrote: »

I don't 'believe'. I look at what experts have said and do the sums. I don't like the results those sums deliver and hope that the postulated worst case scenario doesn't happen.

I was reading something yesterday by a hedge fund billionaire who was explaining that most people don't understand and can't process the idea of exponential growth and that is because we use linear concepts of progression and that these work so well, most of the time that when a non linear situation arises, our model of the world is unable to process and grasp the rare event so we just fail and underestimate the outcomes.

I hope your vision of the future is correct and that the experts are wrong. That would please me greatly.

Is there a correlation between hedge funds and spreading viruses?

Experts are very good in their own field, when it comes to econmonic growth the average person doesnt give a hoot, the average person does give a hoot about a growing virus trend

Snow Garden

Tomato1 wrote: »

Digging up this from earlier.


Oh don't get me started.

The general public are now starting to get a slight taste of what dealing with HSE management is like.

Now imagine you work in an acute hospital setting or frontline emergency service. Forget about covid19 for a moment.

Imagine multiple serious issues, lack of resources, clinical incidents and close calls or even just general urgent questions/requests.

Imagine every single time something like this happens you try communicate with the managers like a good employee who cares for their job, the patient and public.

Now imagine every single time managements reply is them dismissing you, or indirect hand waving because they could not be arsed addressing the issue. You'll get nothing but vague information and non answers from HSE managers.

The video from last night where he said "I didn't say it was a boy, I did not say that" after he just literally saying it, is a prime example of the sheer arrogance of HSE management.

Next time you'll try communicate it a bit better.
Now imagine the more concerned you are, the more management start doubling down. Their arrogance increases.

They'll kick the can down the road so far you can't even begin to imagine how bad it gets.


Issues take YEARS to be communicated properly in the HSE.
Most of staffs emails are straight up ignored.

Eventually they'll take to trying to turn the issue on you, or blame you, or wash their hands entirely of the problem. You'll be given a run around unlike any other industry in the country.


The more the public grow concerned and ask for information, the more HSE management will fúck up and make a balls of the situation.

It's an absolute given.

You want to know why? The HSE is terrified of accountability. No HSE manager will ever be held accountable or take responsibility, PERIOD.
It's what the organization was built upon from day one.

I feel your pain. People should have been protesting in the streets for years about the state of our health system and it's bloated management/bureaucracy and the unions that maintain the status quo. It's only now when a new virus comes along that they are showing real concern about the state of the HSE. Too late folks.

eastie17

This is the scariest figure from that article quoted a few pages back:

"20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks."

Presumably if some of that 20% didn't get that hospital treatment they would not have had a good outcome.

There isn't a chance in hell of the HSE being able to provide treatment for significant numbers if required, thats probably our biggest issue.

iguana

banie01 wrote: »

If memory serves you do have experience in this area?

Not really. I worked briefly as part of the UK's National Flu Pandemic Service during the Swine Flu outbreak in 2009 but all that consisted of was running potential patients through a questionnaire of symptoms before issuing or not issuing a prescription for Oseltamivir (Tamiflu). In retrospect the scale of that service was an over-reaction to the seriousness of the outbreak but it possibly did prevent actual health services from being overwhelmed.

MonkstownHoop

solidasarock wrote: »

Some kind of basic screaming at airports

That won't help

gabeeg

banie01 wrote: »

If memory serves you do have experience in this area?
Whereas I don't, apart from number crunching.

I'd take the view that controlling the spread and rate of infection will of course pay dividends in the overall number of deaths.

But those who do catch it in a controlled environment are far more likely to me in an at risk group or immuno-compromised?

That even with more life support and ICU resourcing available isn't going to bode well for the recovery rates IMO?
Already compromised population with an illness that causes aggressive pneumonia symptoms.

I don't think we are going to see anywhere near the number of deaths that some of the exponential or unchecked projections are predicting.

I do think however that the mortality rate is going to hold fairly constant thru the Pandemic phase.

The known cases grow exponentially in every region that tests appropriately - known cases seem to double about every six days.

It's not that those in the know are saying "what if this thing grows exponentially"? It is growing exponentially today.
What we have to do is try to go from doubling every six days, to every seven. And then eight, nine, ten etc etc

Funsterdelux

solidasarock wrote: »

Some kind of basic screaming at airports to catch cases inbound from hot spots / recommended self isolation for everyone else.

Restrictions on large public gathering

Literally ANYTHING other then "it will be fine. Just wash your hands"

Maybe tell Dublin Bus they dont have to jam 200 people per bus during rush hour.


We dont have to go full closed boarders. Just some basic cop on will do

So if you think youre infected you scream coming off the plane?

Sorry

cnocbui

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Point of order. It doesn't make them an expert beyond the niche in which they studied in order to obtain their PhD.

Point of order- I know two people with Phds who are very, very knowledgeable in areas beyond the field their Phd relates to, to the point of being expert, even though lacking the formal qualifications.

Tacitus Kilgore

solidasarock wrote: »

Some kind of basic screaming at airports to catch cases inbound from hot spots / recommended self isolation for everyone else.

Restrictions on large public gathering

Literally ANYTHING other then "it will be fine. Just wash your hands"


We dont have to go full closed boarders. Just some cop on will do

what kind of basic screening? (I was gonna take the pee out of screaming, but didn't bother as there's plenty of that in the thread already :pac:)

Who should self isolate?


Restriction on large public gathering is easy & I also agree to an extent.

Just some cop on is not an action unfortunately, can you elaborate?

the butcher

Schools still going to Italy, similar story to the caller on newstalk about a group of 70 Students going next week.

https://twitter.com/EireEndstv/status/1235137740162895873

the butcher

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235157055067082752

Tacitus Kilgore

cnocbui wrote: »

Point of order- I know two people with Phds who are very, very knowledgeable in areas beyond the field their Phd relates to, to the point of being expert, even though lacking the formal qualifications.

I work with a lad who has a PHD that struggles to understand anything outside of his doctorate subject.

The other day he announced that - up until last week he thought Iran was a fictional place.

Funsterdelux

the butcher wrote: »

Schools still going to Italy, similar story to the caller on newstalk about a group of 70 Students going next week.

https://twitter.com/EireEndstv/status/1235137740162895873

At this stage any non essential large groups going to infected regions should be compensated to stay if not refunded

Cupatae

the butcher wrote: »

Schools still going to Italy, similar story to the caller on newstalk about a group of 70 Students going next week.

https://twitter.com/EireEndstv/status/1235137740162895873

How have they even got people going on the trip?

the butcher

https://www.ofm.co.za/article/centralsa/285962/africa-has-recorded-seven-confirmed-coronavirus-cases?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

"Of the seven cases, four of those cases have a history of contact with Italy, so it begins to indicate to us that this is a challenge."

Tacitus Kilgore

Cupatae wrote: »

How have they even got people going on the trip?

Yes

DOCARCH

I think I heard on news just now that Indeed has asked all staff in Dublin office to work from home until further notice?

I’m hoping I’m not the only dumb dumb here but I’ll take one for the team.......

Could someone explain linear and exponential please?

:embarrassed:

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

I think I heard on news just now that Indeed has asked all staff in Dublin office to work from home until further notice?

Checked RTE news website....it's their global workforce, including the Dublin office.