Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Jack1985

Locker10a wrote: »

Quite a kick for the industry here when it’s already crippled

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/transmission-of-covid-19-on-flight-into-ireland-linked-to-59-infections-1.4390728

A bus that travels from Cavan (R 983-25/10/20) to Tipperary (R 124-25/10/20) should be considered high risk as the incidence rates between both localities vary substantially, the onward trajectory for virus spread then becomes a waiting game.

However, using the above context, a flight with 49 passengers from multiple jurisdictions, lands and disease spreads to up to 59 people within the study profile.

No data is provided into what jurisdictions the 49 passengers are travelling from or movement in the cabin, lots of info regarding time spent in the terminal are provided but for some reason it didn't seem appropriate to the HPSC to provide data on countries and disease prevalence thereof for the jurisdictions that were concerned. See conclusions here, https://www.eurosurveillance.org/docserver/fulltext/eurosurveillance/25/42/eurosurv-25-42-3.pdf?expires=1603656309&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=B2905DBF246F16531BD4B6FA936AB52E

When you do not mitigate risk by not testing or actually focus efforts on area's which are high risk this should be no surprise to anyone. Certainly, the blame is not an industry, that seems to be misguided focus with multiple examples in Ireland for some bizarre reason varying from travel to hospitality and others. I suppose not being able to keep up with basic contact tracing can lead to such blunt instrument approaches.

Thankfully the EU use a wide analysis to determine risk and not general aspersions which will be controlled by the ECDC Nov 8th forward.

Well said. The Authorities may be completely incompetent in their handling of the crisis but the propaganda to bolster their position and distract people from questioning their competency continues unabated. Other Countries are handling the crisis better.

Tenger

Deleted User wrote: »

Well said. The Authorities may be completely incompetent in their handling of the crisis but the propaganda to bolster their position and distract people from questioning their competency continues unabated. Other Countries are handling the crisis better.

And other countries are handling the crisis less well

Tenger

Tenger wrote: »

And other countries are handling the crisis less well

...because everyone looks to the those who are doing less well for example???

billy few mates

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well said. The Authorities may be completely incompetent in their handling of the crisis but the propaganda to bolster their position and distract people from questioning their competency continues unabated. Other Countries are handling the crisis better.

Which countries..?

kona

Deleted User wrote: »

...because everyone looks to the those who are doing less well for example???

Nobody is handling this well to be fair. Its fairly unprecedented so some slack needs to be given, the slack is getting shorter now that its apparent our nphet and government did **** all.during the summer to prepare for the inevitable rise in autumn/winter/post 1st lockdown/schools opening.

smurfjed

billy few mates wrote: »

Which countries..?

Saudi Arabia

Presently about 400 cases a day for around the last 3 weeks, masks and social distance required with a non-compliance fine. Have operated domestic since July and about 40 international destinations. PCR test required for inbound travel, 4 COVID APPS in use. Tests available within 24 hours, results within 12. Society opened.

California Dreamer

smurfjed wrote: »

Saudi Arabia

Presently about 400 cases a day for around the last 3 weeks, masks and social distance required with a non-compliance fine. Have operated domestic since July and about 40 international destinations. PCR test required for inbound travel, 4 COVID APPS in use. Tests available within 24 hours, results within 12. Society opened.

Not bad for a country that lives in constant fear of severe consequences of not obeying the rules! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Tenger

And that leads to our current situation here;
Non-compliance. Personally know people who have travelled abroad to 'Green list' countries and isolated for 14 days on their return.
But then talking to some mates in EI they tell me about flights to Faro and Athens were they are like prison guards having yo monitor mask wearing among the passengers. If someone can't be bothered to wear a mask for the time it takes to travel abroad, the chances are they won't bother with self isolation on return.

I've always been in favour of keeping air travel going but with controls. 7 months later and we are still using pen and paper to provide tracing info.
At this stage (with our 6 weeks of level 5) I want to see all outbound passengers providing personal details to the HSE before travel. And similar upon arrival.
I want to see testing before departure or upon arrival. Preferably with 24-36 hour quarantine until the results are back.
We will quickly see which travel is "essential" in that case.

It's draconian but unfortunately the behaviour of the few havespoiked it for the rest it us.

mikel97

Tenger wrote: »

And that leads to our current situation here;
Non-compliance. Personally know people who have travelled abroad to 'Green list' countries and isolated for 14 days on their return.
But then talking to some mates in EI they tell me about flights to Faro and Athens were they are like prison guards having yo monitor mask wearing among the passengers. If someone can't be bothered to wear a mask for the time it takes to travel abroad, the chances are they won't bother with self isolation on return.

I've always been in favour of keeping air travel going but with controls. 7 months later and we are still using pen and paper to provide tracing info.
At this stage (with our 6 weeks of level 5) I want to see all outbound passengers providing personal details to the HSE before travel. And similar upon arrival.
I want to see testing before departure or upon arrival. Preferably with 24-36 hour quarantine until the results are back.
We will quickly see which travel is "essential" in that case.

It's draconian but unfortunately the behaviour of the few havespoiked it for the rest it us.

Crazy Ideas. Its a Virus it doesn't care about who when and where. Its there everybody got to learn to live with it just like any other affliction. Air Travel isn't responsible nor are people travelling. Remember your government only make recommendations and Hse well its a joke, couple of old country women taking notes on the back of a fag packet won't do any good. Testing no point b4 departure, I've personally had quite a few on my travels, never had to wait more than 15 minutes for my negative results. Ireland 24-36 hour lol it a joke. And who will pay for accommodation etc?? If I deem my travel essential i go and that includes for head reasons if i need i go and will continue to.
Don't go blaming behaviour of a few. Thats crazy. Its a virus invisible. And the entire debate is ridiculous . Sweden were right. Slante

jamo2oo9

You can see the effects of the coronavirus on Etihad in Abu Dhabi on google maps.

https://www.google.com/maps/@24.4389056,54.6600874,4404m/data=!3m1!1e3

Irish Steve

jamo2oo9 wrote: »

You can see the effects of the coronavirus on Etihad in Abu Dhabi on google maps.

https://www.google.com/maps/@24.4389056,54.6600874,4404m/data=!3m1!1e3

What are we supposed to be looking at? It's a page on google maps, with no explanation of what is different or changed on it.

ProfessorPlum

Looks like a lot of aircraft parked up /parked on taxiways.

Irish Steve

ProfessorPlum wrote: »

Looks like a lot of aircraft parked up /parked on taxiways.

Aaah, OK, as linked, that's not obvious, it has to be zoomed in a number of times before that becomes clear.

Tenger

mikel97 wrote: »

Crazy Ideas. Its a Virus it doesn't care about who when and where. Its there everybody got to learn to live with it just like any other affliction. Air Travel isn't responsible nor are people travelling. Remember your government only make recommendations and Hse well its a joke, couple of old country women taking notes on the back of a fag packet won't do any good. Testing no point b4 departure, I've personally had quite a few on my travels, never had to wait more than 15 minutes for my negative results. Ireland 24-36 hour lol it a joke. And who will pay for accommodation etc?? If I deem my travel essential i go and that includes for head reasons if i need i go and will continue to.
Don't go blaming behaviour of a few. Thats crazy. Its a virus invisible. And the entire debate is ridiculous . Sweden were right. Slante

I wasn’t implying a long term closure of air travel. I was referring to a short term change to line up with the National level 5.
We will learn to live with this virus. I do believe it can be done but behaviours have to be changed. “People“ ARE responsible for the spread as the virus itself isn’t booking flights. It’s hitching a ride with “people” who then ignore health guidelines there for the greater good.

Regarding airport testing, there is a difference between the fast tests and the PCR-RT tests which take longer to get a result. The 24-36 hour wait time in Ireland is based on our lab capacity.
As for costs, well obviously I would assume State covering the testing and overnight accommodation.

As for “Sweden”, well that attempt at a Mike drop displays your uninformed opinion. 58 deaths per 1000 compared to 38/1000 in Ireland.

Tenzor07

Tenger wrote: »

I wasn’t implying a long term closure of air travel. I was referring to a short term change to line up with the National level 5.We will learn to live with this virus. I do believe it can be done but behaviours have to be changed. “People“ ARE responsible for the spread as the virus itself isn’t booking flights. It’s hitching a ride with “people” who then ignore health guidelines there for the greater good.
Regarding airport testing, there is a difference between the fast tests and the PCR-RT tests which take longer to get a result. The 24-36 hour wait time in Ireland is based on our lab capacity.
As for costs, well obviously I would assume State covering the testing and overnight accommodation.

The new 12 minute test for asymptomatic people from Lumiradx could be rolled out if the price can be brought down to €5 or €10, that would get things rolling at pre-departure for passengers... Random swab testing upon arrival could be done with advice to limit contacts for 24hrs pending results..

There's always stories of my brothers mates cousins aunty on Whatsapp who sez they're not wearing masks on d planes.. and then extract an assumption out of your hat that they probably won't isolate either, without having the facts to back up the claims that will trace cases back to all these people mentioned... not saying cases aren't coming from people who act irresponsibly however it can happen in any situation where people are in contact with each other.. we can't all stay at home under the bed until an effective vaccine comes along.

billy few mates

mikel97 wrote: »

If I deem my travel essential i go and that includes for head reasons if i need i go and will continue to.
Don't go blaming behaviour of a few.

You work away there and enjoy your travels, the advice clearly isn't aimed at you, it's aimed at those of us who are trying to avoid you...

MrMusician18

Tenger wrote: »

I wasn’t implying a long term closure of air travel. I was referring to a short term change to line up with the National level 5.
We will learn to live with this virus. I do believe it can be done but behaviours have to be changed. “People“ ARE responsible for the spread as the virus itself isn’t booking flights. It’s hitching a ride with “people” who then ignore health guidelines there for the greater good.

Regarding airport testing, there is a difference between the fast tests and the PCR-RT tests which take longer to get a result. The 24-36 hour wait time in Ireland is based on our lab capacity.
As for costs, well obviously I would assume State covering the testing and overnight accommodation.

As for “Sweden”, well that attempt at a Mike drop displays your uninformed opinion. 58 deaths per 1000 compared to 38/1000 in Ireland.

Why would the state cover the costs of the tests and accommodation when the vast vast majority, (we are talking in excess of 98%) of travel is discretionary?

The individual that's travelling should pay for any test or quarantine.

HTCOne

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Why would the state cover the costs of the tests and accommodation when the vast vast majority, (we are talking in excess of 98%) of travel is discretionary?

The individual that's travelling should pay for any test or quarantine.

Because anything that makes it easier for discretionary travel to occur will pay for itself. How much more than the cost of the test itself will be made back in taxation on what these people spend their money on? Food, accommodation etc? Then there's the fact that if you get enough people travelling inwards again, there's less people in the transport and hospitality industries on the PUP, thus saving the government more money. This is why other countries heavily reliant on tourism (eg Iceland) are covering the cost. It more than pays for itself.

And that's before getting into the benefits of finding positive cases before they have an opportunity to spread the virus. It really is a no brainer.

MrMusician18

HTCOne wrote: »

Because anything that makes it easier for discretionary travel to occur will pay for itself. How much more than the cost of the test itself will be made back in taxation on what these people spend their money on? Food, accommodation etc? Then there's the fact that if you get enough people travelling inwards again, there's less people in the transport and hospitality industries on the PUP, thus saving the government more money. This is why other countries heavily reliant on tourism (eg Iceland) are covering the cost. It more than pays for itself.

And that's before getting into the benefits of finding positive cases before they have an opportunity to spread the virus. It really is a no brainer.

Our country isn't Iceland and isn't as heavily reliant on tourism. In 2019 Outbound tourists took about €7.5bn out of the Irish economy, while inbound tourists brought €5.5bn in (rises to about €7.5bn when you include fares to domestic carriers). Inbound tourism is not happening because the things that bring people to Ireland like the tourist sites, pubs and restaurants are closed - and they will need to remain closed while covid is out of control in the community. So the state offering free testing and quarantine for travellers will only encourage money to be exported as the only people that would use this system will be Irish residents leaving on holiday and returning.

It's a non workable, expensive idea that has no real upside for the domestic tourism industry.

Lifelike

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Our country isn't Iceland and isn't as heavily reliant on tourism. In 2019 Outbound tourists took about €7.5bn out of the Irish economy, while inbound tourists brought €5.5bn in (rises to about €7.5bn when you include fares to domestic carriers). Inbound tourism is not happening because the things that bring people to Ireland like the tourist sites, pubs and restaurants are closed - and they will need to remain closed while covid is out of control in the community. So the state offering free testing and quarantine for travellers will only encourage money to be exported as the only people that would use this system will be Irish residents leaving on holiday and returning.

It's a non workable, expensive idea that has no real upside for the domestic tourism industry.

It’s not just the tourism industry that this would help to save, but also our aviation industry, which as an island the importance to our wider economy cannot be understated. Don’t also forget our travel agencies, without some kind of assistance the whole industry in Ireland will collapse in 2021.

I’m also not sure if I agree with your point either about Ireland being unattractive to foreigners, I would think that everyone’s aim is to get the pubs, restaurants and tourist sites reopened shortly. We also can’t forget our own natural scenery as an attraction either.

Maybe we should have a compromise and go for subsidised rather than free tests? Say €30 each? Would probably cover a significant chunk of the cost but probably wouldn’t be high enough to deter travel for those who really want to travel.

MrMusician18

Lifelike wrote: »

It’s not just the tourism industry that this would help to save, but also our aviation industry, which as an island the importance to our wider economy cannot be understated. Don’t also forget our travel agencies, without some kind of assistance the whole industry in Ireland will collapse in 2021.

I’m also not sure if I agree with your point either about Ireland being unattractive to foreigners, I would think that everyone’s aim is to get the pubs, restaurants and tourist sites reopened shortly. We also can’t forget our own natural scenery as an attraction either.

Maybe we should have a compromise and go for subsidised rather than free tests? Say €30 each? Would probably cover a significant chunk of the cost but probably wouldn’t be high enough to deter travel for those who really want to travel.

I'm not sure that's true anymore or at least a given. So far, government tax receipts have held up quite well in the absence of normal international travel. In a world that's adjusted to zoom, connectivity may not be as important as it was. This points back to my earlier post about the long term changes that this crisis could cause.

PCR tests cost the government between €150-€200 per test.

HTCOne

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Our country isn't Iceland and isn't as heavily reliant on tourism. In 2019 Outbound tourists took about €7.5bn out of the Irish economy, while inbound tourists brought €5.5bn in (rises to about €7.5bn when you include fares to domestic carriers). Inbound tourism is not happening because the things that bring people to Ireland like the tourist sites, pubs and restaurants are closed - and they will need to remain closed while covid is out of control in the community. So the state offering free testing and quarantine for travellers will only encourage money to be exported as the only people that would use this system will be Irish residents leaving on holiday and returning.

It's a non workable, expensive idea that has no real upside for the domestic tourism industry.

You've completely ignored the cumulative financial effect of getting more people off the PUP, getting more VAT and reducing the costs on our health service and contact tracers by identifying positive COVID tests at source. Not to mention the health benefits from testing folks at the airports themselves.

The WHO and ECDC are unequivocal, restricting travel when community transmission is occurring is pointless. They also are unequivocal in stating testing on as large a scale as possible, wherever you can do it is essential. Finding positive cases anywhere in any situation pays for itself, not just financially, but socially too. There are people travelling for genuinely essential reasons, if we can identify positive cases there, especially the asymptomatic ones, then the system pays for itself.

Noxegon

MrMusician18 wrote: »

PCR tests cost the government between €150-€200 per test.

I did a PCR test in Hamburg Airport last month for €59.

It was done by Centogene/Dr Bauer Labs.

MrMusician18

HTCOne wrote: »

You've completely ignored the cumulative financial effect of getting more people off the PUP, getting more VAT and reducing the costs on our health service and contact tracers by identifying positive COVID tests at source. Not to mention the health benefits from testing folks at the airports themselves.

The WHO and ECDC are unequivocal, restricting travel when community transmission is occurring is pointless. They also are unequivocal in stating testing on as large a scale as possible, wherever you can do it is essential. Finding positive cases anywhere in any situation pays for itself, not just financially, but socially too. There are people travelling for genuinely essential reasons, if we can identify positive cases there, especially the asymptomatic ones, then the system pays for itself.

Ok, let's do a thought experiment. Say we follow your advice, let's offer tests to tourists on arrival.
You'll have answers for where we are good to find testing capacity when the system we have is at breaking point.
You'll also be able to tell me what tourists are going to be able to do with all amenities closed, which they will need to remain until we get community transmission under control again.

Even if we park the testing idea until we are back at level 2 or 3 and demand on testing falls, what do we say to tourists that have booked if we need to prioritise testing in our community again? Do we just let them in? Do we continue having our government spend €2m per day to facilitate Irish people travelling abroad. The reality is that outbound tourism is going to recover faster than inbound tourism. A testing regime that facilitates international travel well be effectively a subsidy for other countries tourism sectors at the direct expense of our own as it will mean Irish people will holiday abroad over spending in the domestic economy. As I said in normal times, just slightly more money, a trickle, leaves Ireland through tourism than comes in. Testing to facilitate tourists would turn this into a torrent.

If there is a testing regime set up for tourists, it's vital that tourists pay for it themselves. Each individual would need to be spending well over €5000 for the state to break even on their tests (only a quarter or so of vat actually remains with the Irish exchequer - the lions share funds the EU). It just doesn't make sense, financially or practically.

PommieBast

Noxegon wrote: »

I did a PCR test in Hamburg Airport last month for €59.

It was done by Centogene/Dr Bauer Labs.

Any idea if it is subsidised?

Heard noises that the option of having tests rather than having to quarantine is why German companies have been winning contracts at the expense of other countries. Will try to find a reference.

Hotblack Desiato

smurfjed wrote: »

Saudi Arabia

Presently about 400 cases a day for around the last 3 weeks, masks and social distance required with a non-compliance fine. Have operated domestic since July and about 40 international destinations. PCR test required for inbound travel, 4 COVID APPS in use. Tests available within 24 hours, results within 12. Society opened.

What about pubs

LiamaDelta

Isn't all this focus on airport testing is ignoring the fact that if a country or city has widespread transmission of the virus in the community then people won't go there, no matter how 'safe' it is to travel on planes. Personally the plane journey is the least of my worries, but I'm not going to go to a city with no bars and restaurants open. People have rightly pointed out how great Germany was for introducing airport testing in some airports etc. but we are still seeing the growth of the virus throughout the country, which is looking like it will lead to more restrictions being necessary.

LiamaDelta

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Isn't all this focus on airport testing is ignoring the fact that if a country or city has widespread transmission of the virus in the community then people won't go there, no matter how 'safe' it is to travel on planes. Personally the plane journey is the least of my worries, but I'm not going to go to a city with no bars and restaurants open. People have rightly pointed out how great Germany was for introducing airport testing in some airports etc. but we are still seeing the growth of the virus throughout the country, which is looking like it will lead to more restrictions being necessary.

And the Aviation and Tourism industries should be destroyed because the Government can't roll out adequate testing across the Country in addition in to the airports as well as provisioning enough ICU spaces so that if there is a spike in people needing treatment they don't die. Testing isn't as expensive as it once was. Germany at the end of last week had 8000 ICU beds free.
When your health system isn't at capacity you can afford to be freer in your decisions. The Government could have pleaded there wasn't enough ICU units 7 months ago. That excuse doesn't wash now and the Aviation industry is on its knees.
I'm seeing reports about Austria spinning up its socially distanced winter ski tourism industry on the news. If Irish Government were in charge of the Austrian Alps they'd be locked tight and to hell with the people who depend on the income from Tourists.

mikel97

Deleted User wrote: »

If Irish Government were in charge of the Austrian Alps they'd be locked tight and to hell with the people who depend on the income from Tourists.

Correct. The only thing the Irish government has flattened is your economy.