Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

DOCARCH

Mace Head gusting 122 km/h in 1300 reports. Malin Head gusting 107 km/h and Sherkin gusting 104 km/h.

JanuarySnowstor

Much colder from around 3pm....All snow by this evening!!

Nqp15hhu

The warm sector is approaching Donegal.

Gaoth Laidir

The GFS has the 516 dam line making it as far as the east coast tomorrow. The ECM doesn't get it further east than 20W, about 800 km of a difference. One is more right than the other. Which is it?

GFS


ECM

Gaoth Laidir

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Didn't you say yesterday that we were going to be the wrong side of marginal? Yet much of the Midlands is seeing heavy and indeed lying snow in parts

No I didn't, I highlighted how close to marginal it was for lowest levels. I said higher up would do well.

davidsr20

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

No I didn't, I highlighted how close to marginal it was for lowest levels. I said higher up would do well.

What’s your thoughts on the west for tonight and tomorrow u only mentioned East?

highdef

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Didn't you say yesterday that we were going to be the wrong side of marginal? Yet much of the Midlands is seeing heavy and indeed lying snow in parts

Just about on the wrong side of marginal in North Kildare. Recent moderate to heavy snow shower combined with strong winds but too warm to stick. Can see it stuck to the grass on the hill bedside me, less than 30 metres higher up. I'd say snow line is above 150m to 200m.

Oneiric 3

Rougies wrote: »

UKV, part of the "Unified model" (UKMO model suite) which Euro4 is also a part of.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Model

Thanks for that. Great info! That UKV model, of which they seem to also use in their video forecasts, seems to be much more accurate than the Euro based 'Harmonie', and most certainly with regards wind and rainfall. I think the Harmonie's strength lies more with temperature.

Gaoth Laidir

davidsr20 wrote: »

What’s your thoughts on the west for tonight and tomorrow u only mentioned East?

Almost everywhere should see at least some snow falling, sticking inland above about 100 m. That trough coming into the north tonight does have a slight warm core to it, so hard to know which way that will go. Certainly above 200 m should see a lot.

Nqp15hhu

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Almost everywhere should see at least some snow falling, sticking inland above about 100 m. That trough coming into the north tonight does have a slight warm core to it, so hard to know which way that will go. Certainly above 200 m should see a lot.

The trough will raise the freezing levels. It has already started to warm up so the next snow should be in the early hours.

This always seems to happen with westerlies.

Oneiric 3

Based on the latest EC run for 6am tomorrow morning:



Pretty much as expected with a reasonable chance of some of those passing showers producing some wet snow at times giving transient coverings in places.

Kermit.de.frog

There'll be plenty of hail/snow showers piling in to the west and north overnight.

I still think 5 - 10 cm is possible in some places there.

Fewer and lighter snow showers elsewhere.

Some will be happy come the morning.

Gonzo

Hirlam looks decent enough for snow showers getting across to the east later tonight, tomorrow morning. Could be a dusting in many places by the morning if this verifies.



GFS see's a rather dry night for Leinster with showers getting going again tomorrow.

pad199207

SleetAndSnow

I think we know that the euro4 overdoes snow charts, but I also think we all have candles lit and every possible thing crossed at the same time

DOCARCH

3pm reports have a lot of coastal stations reporting gusts of 100 km/h and over.

Gusts:
Sherkin Island 113 km/h
Mailn Head 111 km/h
Roches Point 111 km/h
Mace Head 109 km/h
Valentia 100 km/h
Shannon 100 km/h

Rebelbrowser

Since mid morning temps at Cork airport have gone from 6.7c down to 3.3c and DP from 1.8 to 0.8 so moving in right direction anyway.

Rebelbrowser

Just as a warning to those of us picking our favourite models to show what we want (guilty as charged), were the Euro 04 6z correct the good burghers of Waterford would be digging themselves out now...

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just as a warning to those of us picking our favourite models to show what we want (guilty as charged), were the Euro 04 6z correct the good burghers of Waterford would be digging themselves out now...

Rebel that chart you had earlier of temps etc can you post an updated one please?

Graces7

DOCARCH wrote: »

3pm reports have a lot of coastal stations reporting gusts of 100 km/h and over.

Gusts:
Sherkin Island 113 km/h
Mailn Head 111 km/h
Roches Point 111 km/h
Mace Head 109 km/h
Valentia 100 km/h
Shannon 100 km/h

Out here the coastal gale is a loud constant today. Occasionally hail-laden but always the howling and buffeting of it, gusting gutsily .

textiles

North Clare coast particularly ferocious in the last hour - worse than Saturday and Sunday.

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

Rebel that chart you had earlier of temps etc can you post an updated one please?

Sure, see below. You get it on meteociel anyway on the home page if you click on the left hand side on temperature (and then take the option on top of the page to see Irlande only) and dew points are under point de rosee on the left hand side similarly. In fact if you hover over any station on their map you get lots of station specific data not on met.ie. If you click on the station, you get even more (but lose dew points bizarrely!). Current detailed Cork airport data is linked to below... DP at Cork airport now -3 as you'll see but temp is 5c.

Dew points



Temps



Cork Airport station report

See http://www.meteociel.fr/temps-reel/obs_villes.php?code2=3955

Rebelbrowser

My dew points chart above really does show the cold air is arriving. Cork airport dew points fell from +0.8 to -3 in an hour as far as I can see.

cherryghost

Soil temp is quite high still so no proper stucking until early tomorrow probably, significant cooling running through the day tomorrow though.

Oneiric 3

Latest satellite image showing plenty more showers out in the Atlantic heading our way. Elongated cloud to the near NW is associated with an occlusion which will bring more prolonged showers to northern areas later this evening.

mayo.mick

Current temps here ans dew point

Rebelbrowser

Now 5c with DP of -4c at Cork airport.

Donegal Storm

Plenty heavy hail squalls piling in here all day, a couple of big booms of thunder earlier as well.

Nice to get a proper old fashioned polar maritime flow for a change, few and far between this past decade

Gonzo

looks to be plenty of showers heading into Donegal at the moment. Radar already getting very light over Leinster. It was nice to get a decent snow shower earlier on but I'm not sure i'll see anything else today. North Meath and Louth look like they may get a few more showers, but not much for South Meath or Dublin going by the latest radar.

Oscar Bravo

5pm
Sherkin gusting 62 knots