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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

  • 06-02-2020 9:43am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    A thread is coming about storm Ciara. Check back in a few minutes and I will have this introductory post somewhat more filled out with an overview of what looks like being a long-duration and complex event. I have posted a LEVEL 1 tag for the storm now because I am about 99.9% certain it will get at least that and most likely a LEVEL 2 designation eventually.

    There will be three phases to this storm.

    A rather brief but intense period of strong winds seems likely by late Saturday as a leading wave hits the west coast. Winds may peak at about 70 to 120 km/hr during this phase with a brief interval of heavy rain possible.

    The "main event" will arrive on Sunday as the depression actually tagged as storm "Ciara" moves east to the north of Ulster towards northwest Scotland. This will involve a fairly long-duration blast of strong winds from the west, but perhaps a more severe impact in terms of elevated sea states leading to battering waves and coastal inundations (as usual Galway Bay in the firing line for this but generally all parts of the west and possibly south coasts). I could imagine this phase being mainly 70 to 110 km/hr winds with some intervals as strong as 90 to 130 km/hr locally, but it's more about the long duration than the peak gusts with Ciara.

    A third phase will be falling temperatures and continued strong winds with a trailing wave likely to pass to our north on Monday, allowing the squally showers already in progress to become increasingly wintry through the day on Monday. This may actually continue for much of Tuesday with some chance for heavy snowfall accumulations on some higher terrain in Connacht and west Ulster and on hills elsewhere too. Once again this phase may involve mainly 70 to 110 km/hr speeds but could ramp up towards Monday evening to 80 to 130 km/hr.

    I may expand this post but feel free to "have at it" and I will rely on moderators to change the tag (LEVEL "x") in sync with the Met service who have an excellent commentary available in their forecast section. There is such widespread model consensus that I think the discussion will be mainly about details and inevitably the red/orange debate will probably arise, I would say even at this early stage, red might verify in terms of coastal impacts not so much from the intensity of the winds as the long duration combined with the coastal flooding factor. But for now we'll be conservative and start off with a LEVEL ONE tag so that Boards readers know something bad cometh this way.

    Note: There may be a yellow (LEVEL ONE) warning associated with a weaker system timed to move through on Friday afternoon and evening. This will be separate from the above complex storm event and may briefly get its own little discussion thread, but if not, just in general be aware that Friday's outcome will be independent of the evolution of storm Ciara and if it fizzles or gets stronger, not likely to be a "trend" in terms of how Ciara might perform.

    I have added in some wind speed thoughts to my first posting above, otherwise this will have to do to get us started, Meteorite and some others are the pros at posting graphics so rather than having me fumbling around with that, I imagine they will go for the jugular as soon as some good solid guidance becomes available.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,333 ✭✭✭ Masala


    Well done,,,, very helpful.

    Where is it rated versus our earlier Storms..?.. worse or better. ?.

    Will it hit Cork,Kerry and Limerick bad?.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,821 ✭✭✭✭ denartha


    I thought it was storm Ciara?


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    denartha wrote: »
    I thought it was storm Ciara?

    It is !


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,208 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    denartha wrote: »
    I thought it was storm Ciara?

    Okay, fixed that, you can tell I don't listen to the radio or watch TV in Ireland (would in fairness take quite a set-up here to do that) and at the type size I have on my screen, the letters looked the same to me. It even took me a while to figure out why you were asking the question. :)

    Maybe Clare should be particularly concerned though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,975 ✭✭✭✭ Drumpot


    Would it be fair to say that prolonged wind like this could lead to more potential tree falls?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,277 ✭✭✭✭ Thalia Thoughtless Grime


    Will be interesting to see if it effects voter numbers.
    What will it be like at 530 as I drive to a polling station on the Kerry coast?*



    * Getting in early :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,975 ✭✭✭✭ Drumpot


    Will be interesting to see if it effects voter numbers.
    What will it be like at 530 as I drive to a polling station on the Kerry coast?*



    * Getting in early :D

    Can’t Kerry voters vote in their local pub so they don’t have to drink and drive to the booth?

    CC-NEW-DAIL-_3390329315.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭ Sparko


    Time for people to go park up in the famous (infamous?) Salthill carpark I guess.


  • Moderators, Regional Midwest Moderators Posts: 23,424 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Clareman


    Okay, fixed that, you can tell I don't listen to the radio or watch TV in Ireland (would in fairness take quite a set-up here to do that) and at the type size I have on my screen, the letters looked the same to me. It even took me a while to figure out why you were asking the question. :)

    Maybe Clare should be particularly concerned though.

    Thanks for worrying about us MT :)

    There used to be a pub in Ennis called M.T. Pockets so nice to see a connection is still being held :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    The windchill on Monday and Tuesday is going to be a shock to many people!


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭ nthclare


    Clareman wrote: »
    Thanks for worrying about us MT :)

    There used to be a pub in Ennis called M.T. Pockets so nice to see a connection is still being held :D

    Not forgetting Henry J's lol and Lucases..

    O'Looneys in Lahinch is going to get hammered on Sunday id say, im going wave watching.
    Myself and my son will drive from Black head as far as Castle Point in Kilkee hopefully.

    It all depends on Black head though as I've seen the waves actually surge so high it goes over the headland and a huge spray or splash covers cars.
    You've to time the set of waves and then drive through, there's usually a set of 5 to 7 then it drops off for maybe 10 minutes then whomph again.

    The biggest waves will be around Doolin and the cliffs, further down then it could be worth checking out the slabs near Doonbeg.
    A wave they call Rileys it's some show, its a big long stretch of flat rock and the waves break over it, coming up from deep water over the shelf.

    But I advise caution, go wave watching at your own risk and knowing a bit about water craft is always an advantage but nobody can predict the mood of the ocean.

    There's always a rogue wave which doubles the sizes of the average one.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Would it be fair to say that prolonged wind like this could lead to more potential tree falls?

    You still HAVE trees?


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    nthclare wrote: »
    Not forgetting Henry J's lol and Lucases..

    O'Looneys in Lahinch is going to get hammered on Sunday id say, im going wave watching.
    Myself and my son will drive from Black head as far as Castle Point in Kilkee hopefully.

    It all depends on Black head though as I've seen the waves actually surge so high it goes over the headland and a huge spray or splash covers cars.
    You've to time the set of waves and then drive through, there's usually a set of 5 to 7 then it drops off for maybe 10 minutes then whomph again.

    The biggest waves will be around Doolin and the cliffs, further down then it could be worth checking out the slabs near Doonbeg.
    A wave they call Rileys it's some show, its a big long stretch of flat rock and the waves break over it, coming up from deep water over the shelf.

    But I advise caution, go wave watching at your own risk and knowing a bit about water craft is always an advantage but nobody can predict the mood of the ocean.

    There's always a rogue wave which doubles the sizes of the average one.

    I well remember the 7th wave from childhood beachwalking in Cornwall. Taught us deep respect that is still with me


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Great post MT. I was actually wondering was there a way of sticking a one post forecast like the one you did above and just editing it as changes happen day to day so it's just a one post thread.

    Then for all the fun and games from our good selves open a separate thread for "will this affect my journey to knock?" "Will I be able to vote?" "Another completely overhyped storm" posts...as well as charts of course


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    ICON-EU can over-do the gusts but Ciara could leave her mark:

    https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1225362327425421312?s=20


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 302 ✭✭ dmcsweeney


    pauldry wrote: »
    Then for all the fun and games from our good selves open a separate thread for "will this affect my journey to knock?" "Will I be able to vote?"

    Or better still put it on facebook so people can comment to each of their individual friend with the obligatory 'You ok?' because something happened within a 500km radius of where they live :p


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭ Stevieluvsye


    @Villain

    Is it you who does be on Today FM when there is a significant weather event. Dermot & Dave i think do the slot


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    If GFS is to be believed ESB have their work cut out for next TEN days

    Starting weekend


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,572 ✭✭✭✭ average_runner


    But this is only a west coast event?
    It be grand on the east coast?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,289 ✭✭✭ skinny90


    Sparko wrote: »
    Time for people to go park up in the famous (infamous?) Salthill carpark I guess.

    the opening event for Galway 2020 is on in the Swamp just down the road.

    Big stages being erected and thousands expected to be in attendance...

    Could be chaotic down there in the evening if the weather reports are true


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,447 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

    Saturday, 8th Feb: Southerly winds will strengthen during Saturday reaching mean speeds of 50-65km/h with gusts reaching 90-110km/h.

    Sunday, 9th Feb: Storm Ciara (named by the UK Met Office) will produce very strong winds over Ireland on Sunday with a risk of damaging gusts.

    Over the weekend the combination of Spring Tides and high seas as well as stormy conditions will result in an elevated risk of coastal flooding especially along southern, western and northwestern coasts.

    Valid: 09:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 23:59 Sunday 09/02/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020
    ————————————————————————-

    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland

    Saturday, 8th Feb: A spell of heavy rain will spread eastwards across the country on Saturday with 20-40mm expected, highest in the west and northwest.

    Sunday, 9th Feb: Another spell of heavy rain on Sunday will clear to squally wintry showers. Another 20-40mm likely.

    A risk of localised flooding this weekend, especially over the western half of the country.

    Valid: 12:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 15:00 Sunday 09/02/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 Snow Garden


    nthclare wrote: »
    Not forgetting Henry J's lol and Lucases..

    O'Looneys in Lahinch is going to get hammered on Sunday id say, im going wave watching.
    Myself and my son will drive from Black head as far as Castle Point in Kilkee hopefully.

    It all depends on Black head though as I've seen the waves actually surge so high it goes over the headland and a huge spray or splash covers cars.
    You've to time the set of waves and then drive through, there's usually a set of 5 to 7 then it drops off for maybe 10 minutes then whomph again.

    The biggest waves will be around Doolin and the cliffs, further down then it could be worth checking out the slabs near Doonbeg.
    A wave they call Rileys it's some show, its a big long stretch of flat rock and the waves break over it, coming up from deep water over the shelf.

    But I advise caution, go wave watching at your own risk and knowing a bit about water craft is always an advantage but nobody can predict the mood of the ocean.

    There's always a rogue wave which doubles the sizes of the average one.

    That sounds class nthclare. The Doolin cliff walk is magical during a storm.

    I remember fishing for mackerel at the Bridges of Ross - I'd imagine they would have a great view of the storm too.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭ nthclare


    That sounds class nthclare. The Doolin cliff walk is a magical during a storm.

    I remember fishing for mackerel at the Bridges of Ross - I'd imagine they would have a great view of the storm too.

    If you want to see for real the storm potential around the Bridges of Ross and Castle Point on the loop head go on YouTube and search for Ryan's Daughter storm scene.

    It took a year to get the perfect storm added to the movie.

    David Lean and his team scoured the coast line lookin for the perfect location for that scene.

    The location of the scene is Castle Point and The Bridges of Ross on the Loop Head Peninsula in Clare.

    The first sequence is Castle Point, better known as Dunlikcky.

    The second is The Bridges of Ross down further south on the Loop.

    You'll see the Bridges of Ross at the end of the clip a few guys running about on top of the cliff.

    Way before cgi etc people had to be more creative and in touch with reality than they are today.

    This is a hardcore storm scene.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,440 ✭✭✭ endainoz


    Well Doolin will certainly be fun over the weekend. I'll try to upload some pics from Doolin pier this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,692 ✭✭✭✭ silverharp


    hopefully get a bracing Poolbeg lighthouse walk in early Sat, always looks good with the white horses

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    @Villain

    Is it you who does be on Today FM when there is a significant weather event. Dermot & Dave i think do the slot

    At times yep I do and the lads are good craic alright.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 13,458 Mod ✭✭✭✭ ednwireland


    could someone tell storms not to mess up aour weekends please!!!!!!!!!!!!


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    could someone tell storms not to mess up aour weekends please!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Inconsiderate Ciara. That’s what she’ll be known as.

    :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭ Stevieluvsye


    Villain wrote: »
    At times yep I do and the lads are good craic alright.

    Thought so, you come across very well and i love the D&D show

    Keep up the good work!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,972 ✭✭✭ eigrod


    The Welsh lads sailing home on Sunday might be in for a rocky ride.


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