Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

M.T. Cranium

A thread is coming about storm Ciara. Check back in a few minutes and I will have this introductory post somewhat more filled out with an overview of what looks like being a long-duration and complex event. I have posted a LEVEL 1 tag for the storm now because I am about 99.9% certain it will get at least that and most likely a LEVEL 2 designation eventually.

There will be three phases to this storm.

A rather brief but intense period of strong winds seems likely by late Saturday as a leading wave hits the west coast. Winds may peak at about 70 to 120 km/hr during this phase with a brief interval of heavy rain possible.

The "main event" will arrive on Sunday as the depression actually tagged as storm "Ciara" moves east to the north of Ulster towards northwest Scotland. This will involve a fairly long-duration blast of strong winds from the west, but perhaps a more severe impact in terms of elevated sea states leading to battering waves and coastal inundations (as usual Galway Bay in the firing line for this but generally all parts of the west and possibly south coasts). I could imagine this phase being mainly 70 to 110 km/hr winds with some intervals as strong as 90 to 130 km/hr locally, but it's more about the long duration than the peak gusts with Ciara.

A third phase will be falling temperatures and continued strong winds with a trailing wave likely to pass to our north on Monday, allowing the squally showers already in progress to become increasingly wintry through the day on Monday. This may actually continue for much of Tuesday with some chance for heavy snowfall accumulations on some higher terrain in Connacht and west Ulster and on hills elsewhere too. Once again this phase may involve mainly 70 to 110 km/hr speeds but could ramp up towards Monday evening to 80 to 130 km/hr.

I may expand this post but feel free to "have at it" and I will rely on moderators to change the tag (LEVEL "x") in sync with the Met service who have an excellent commentary available in their forecast section. There is such widespread model consensus that I think the discussion will be mainly about details and inevitably the red/orange debate will probably arise, I would say even at this early stage, red might verify in terms of coastal impacts not so much from the intensity of the winds as the long duration combined with the coastal flooding factor. But for now we'll be conservative and start off with a LEVEL ONE tag so that Boards readers know something bad cometh this way.

Note: There may be a yellow (LEVEL ONE) warning associated with a weaker system timed to move through on Friday afternoon and evening. This will be separate from the above complex storm event and may briefly get its own little discussion thread, but if not, just in general be aware that Friday's outcome will be independent of the evolution of storm Ciara and if it fizzles or gets stronger, not likely to be a "trend" in terms of how Ciara might perform.

I have added in some wind speed thoughts to my first posting above, otherwise this will have to do to get us started, Meteorite and some others are the pros at posting graphics so rather than having me fumbling around with that, I imagine they will go for the jugular as soon as some good solid guidance becomes available.

Masala

Well done,,,, very helpful.

Where is it rated versus our earlier Storms..?.. worse or better. ?.

Will it hit Cork,Kerry and Limerick bad?.

I thought it was storm Ciara?

Graces7

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought it was storm Ciara?

It is !

M.T. Cranium

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought it was storm Ciara?

Okay, fixed that, you can tell I don't listen to the radio or watch TV in Ireland (would in fairness take quite a set-up here to do that) and at the type size I have on my screen, the letters looked the same to me. It even took me a while to figure out why you were asking the question.

Maybe Clare should be particularly concerned though.

Drumpot

Would it be fair to say that prolonged wind like this could lead to more potential tree falls?

uck51js9zml2yt

Will be interesting to see if it effects voter numbers.
What will it be like at 530 as I drive to a polling station on the Kerry coast?*



* Getting in early

Drumpot

Thalia Thoughtless Grime wrote: »

Will be interesting to see if it effects voter numbers.
What will it be like at 530 as I drive to a polling station on the Kerry coast?*



* Getting in early

Can’t Kerry voters vote in their local pub so they don’t have to drink and drive to the booth?

Sparko

Time for people to go park up in the famous (infamous?) Salthill carpark I guess.

Clareman

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Okay, fixed that, you can tell I don't listen to the radio or watch TV in Ireland (would in fairness take quite a set-up here to do that) and at the type size I have on my screen, the letters looked the same to me. It even took me a while to figure out why you were asking the question.

Maybe Clare should be particularly concerned though.

Thanks for worrying about us MT

There used to be a pub in Ennis called M.T. Pockets so nice to see a connection is still being held

Villain

The windchill on Monday and Tuesday is going to be a shock to many people!

nthclare

Clareman wrote: »

Thanks for worrying about us MT

There used to be a pub in Ennis called M.T. Pockets so nice to see a connection is still being held

Not forgetting Henry J's lol and Lucases..

O'Looneys in Lahinch is going to get hammered on Sunday id say, im going wave watching.
Myself and my son will drive from Black head as far as Castle Point in Kilkee hopefully.

It all depends on Black head though as I've seen the waves actually surge so high it goes over the headland and a huge spray or splash covers cars.
You've to time the set of waves and then drive through, there's usually a set of 5 to 7 then it drops off for maybe 10 minutes then whomph again.

The biggest waves will be around Doolin and the cliffs, further down then it could be worth checking out the slabs near Doonbeg.
A wave they call Rileys it's some show, its a big long stretch of flat rock and the waves break over it, coming up from deep water over the shelf.

But I advise caution, go wave watching at your own risk and knowing a bit about water craft is always an advantage but nobody can predict the mood of the ocean.

There's always a rogue wave which doubles the sizes of the average one.

Graces7

Drumpot wrote: »

Would it be fair to say that prolonged wind like this could lead to more potential tree falls?

You still HAVE trees?

Graces7

nthclare wrote: »

Not forgetting Henry J's lol and Lucases..

O'Looneys in Lahinch is going to get hammered on Sunday id say, im going wave watching.
Myself and my son will drive from Black head as far as Castle Point in Kilkee hopefully.

It all depends on Black head though as I've seen the waves actually surge so high it goes over the headland and a huge spray or splash covers cars.
You've to time the set of waves and then drive through, there's usually a set of 5 to 7 then it drops off for maybe 10 minutes then whomph again.

The biggest waves will be around Doolin and the cliffs, further down then it could be worth checking out the slabs near Doonbeg.
A wave they call Rileys it's some show, its a big long stretch of flat rock and the waves break over it, coming up from deep water over the shelf.

But I advise caution, go wave watching at your own risk and knowing a bit about water craft is always an advantage but nobody can predict the mood of the ocean.

There's always a rogue wave which doubles the sizes of the average one.

I well remember the 7th wave from childhood beachwalking in Cornwall. Taught us deep respect that is still with me

pauldry

Great post MT. I was actually wondering was there a way of sticking a one post forecast like the one you did above and just editing it as changes happen day to day so it's just a one post thread.

Then for all the fun and games from our good selves open a separate thread for "will this affect my journey to knock?" "Will I be able to vote?" "Another completely overhyped storm" posts...as well as charts of course

Villain

ICON-EU can over-do the gusts but Ciara could leave her mark:

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1225362327425421312?s=20

dmcsweeney

pauldry wrote: »

Then for all the fun and games from our good selves open a separate thread for "will this affect my journey to knock?" "Will I be able to vote?"

Or better still put it on facebook so people can comment to each of their individual friend with the obligatory 'You ok?' because something happened within a 500km radius of where they live

Stevieluvsye

@Villain

Is it you who does be on Today FM when there is a significant weather event. Dermot & Dave i think do the slot

pauldry

If GFS is to be believed ESB have their work cut out for next TEN days

Starting weekend

average_runner

But this is only a west coast event?
It be grand on the east coast?

skinny90

Sparko wrote: »

Time for people to go park up in the famous (infamous?) Salthill carpark I guess.

the opening event for Galway 2020 is on in the Swamp just down the road.

Big stages being erected and thousands expected to be in attendance...

Could be chaotic down there in the evening if the weather reports are true

pad199207

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

Saturday, 8th Feb: Southerly winds will strengthen during Saturday reaching mean speeds of 50-65km/h with gusts reaching 90-110km/h.

Sunday, 9th Feb: Storm Ciara (named by the UK Met Office) will produce very strong winds over Ireland on Sunday with a risk of damaging gusts.

Over the weekend the combination of Spring Tides and high seas as well as stormy conditions will result in an elevated risk of coastal flooding especially along southern, western and northwestern coasts.

Valid: 09:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 23:59 Sunday 09/02/2020

Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020
————————————————————————-

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland

Saturday, 8th Feb: A spell of heavy rain will spread eastwards across the country on Saturday with 20-40mm expected, highest in the west and northwest.

Sunday, 9th Feb: Another spell of heavy rain on Sunday will clear to squally wintry showers. Another 20-40mm likely.

A risk of localised flooding this weekend, especially over the western half of the country.

Valid: 12:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 15:00 Sunday 09/02/2020

Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020

Snow Garden

nthclare wrote: »

Not forgetting Henry J's lol and Lucases..

O'Looneys in Lahinch is going to get hammered on Sunday id say, im going wave watching.
Myself and my son will drive from Black head as far as Castle Point in Kilkee hopefully.

It all depends on Black head though as I've seen the waves actually surge so high it goes over the headland and a huge spray or splash covers cars.
You've to time the set of waves and then drive through, there's usually a set of 5 to 7 then it drops off for maybe 10 minutes then whomph again.

The biggest waves will be around Doolin and the cliffs, further down then it could be worth checking out the slabs near Doonbeg.
A wave they call Rileys it's some show, its a big long stretch of flat rock and the waves break over it, coming up from deep water over the shelf.

But I advise caution, go wave watching at your own risk and knowing a bit about water craft is always an advantage but nobody can predict the mood of the ocean.

There's always a rogue wave which doubles the sizes of the average one.

That sounds class nthclare. The Doolin cliff walk is magical during a storm.

I remember fishing for mackerel at the Bridges of Ross - I'd imagine they would have a great view of the storm too.

nthclare

Snow Garden wrote: »

That sounds class nthclare. The Doolin cliff walk is a magical during a storm.

I remember fishing for mackerel at the Bridges of Ross - I'd imagine they would have a great view of the storm too.

If you want to see for real the storm potential around the Bridges of Ross and Castle Point on the loop head go on YouTube and search for Ryan's Daughter storm scene.

It took a year to get the perfect storm added to the movie.

David Lean and his team scoured the coast line lookin for the perfect location for that scene.

The location of the scene is Castle Point and The Bridges of Ross on the Loop Head Peninsula in Clare.

The first sequence is Castle Point, better known as Dunlikcky.

The second is The Bridges of Ross down further south on the Loop.

You'll see the Bridges of Ross at the end of the clip a few guys running about on top of the cliff.

Way before cgi etc people had to be more creative and in touch with reality than they are today.

This is a hardcore storm scene.

endainoz

Well Doolin will certainly be fun over the weekend. I'll try to upload some pics from Doolin pier this time.

silverharp

hopefully get a bracing Poolbeg lighthouse walk in early Sat, always looks good with the white horses

Villain

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

@Villain

Is it you who does be on Today FM when there is a significant weather event. Dermot & Dave i think do the slot

At times yep I do and the lads are good craic alright.

ednwireland

could someone tell storms not to mess up aour weekends please!!!!!!!!!!!!

ednwireland

ednwireland wrote: »

could someone tell storms not to mess up aour weekends please!!!!!!!!!!!!

Inconsiderate Ciara. That’s what she’ll be known as.

Stevieluvsye

Villain wrote: »

At times yep I do and the lads are good craic alright.

Thought so, you come across very well and i love the D&D show

Keep up the good work!

eigrod

The Welsh lads sailing home on Sunday might be in for a rocky ride.

sryanbruen

The widespread nature of Ciara's gusts should make it somewhat unique from recent storms. Windiest days of the 2010s decade for mean max gusts (based on the station grid I use for storm comparison tables). There's a large margin of error with the dataset though due to stations missing data on some days so should only be used as a guide and nothing more than that.

12 Feb 2014 - 59.7 kts (Darwin)
03 Jan 2012 - 57.9 kts
18 Dec 2013 - 54.2 kts
27 Dec 2013 - 53.5 kts
11 Nov 2010 - 53.4 kts
13 Dec 2011 - 52.6 kts
23 May 2011 - 51.8 kts
30 Jan 2013 - 51.8 kts
26 Dec 2013 - 51.7 kts
23 Feb 2017 - 51.7 kts (Doris)
28 Jan 2013 - 51.3 kts
08 Dec 2011 - 51.3 kts
03 Feb 2011 - 51.1 kts
12 Sep 2011 - 50.6 kts (ex-hurricane Katia)
31 Mar 2011 - 50.4 kts
16 Oct 2017 - 50.3 kts (Ophelia)
26 Jan 2014 - 50.2 kts
03 Jan 2014 - 50.1 kts

50 kts is equivalent to 92.6 km/h. Mean wind speeds would tell somewhat of a different story I would think.

Most of these were in 2011 and 2013 :cool: Lorenzo on 4th October 2019 fits just outside the top 330 windiest days in terms of mean max gusts.

Data from Met Éireann.

nthclare

Cw85 wrote: »

Can we keep on topic please

Atlantic storms, water temperature and its effects, wind turbulence and fresh air is bang on topic.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1225364305249476609?s=19

Oneiric 3

This morning's ECM wind gust forecast for Sunday noon:



Fairly impressive but a long way to go yet.

Oneiric 3

In comparison to the 00z, the ECMWF 06z has the strongest of the winds during Sunday morning, and tending to be over the central swathe of the country (away from coastal regions)

Oneiric 3

If you want to get an idea for the forecast wind speeds and gusts the GFS is showing for your particular region this is probably the best webpage to use:

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/tuam

Just type in your nearest town or village into search box. Updates as soon as each GFS run is complete.

lcasey90

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

If you want to get an idea for the forecast wind speeds and gusts the GFS is showing for your particular region this is probably the best webpage to use:

https://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/tuam

Just type in your nearest town or village into search box. Updates as soon as each GFS run is complete.

Thanks never knew about that site

Rebelbrowser

sryanbruen wrote: »

The widespread nature of Ciara's gusts should make it somewhat unique from recent storms. Windiest days of the 2010s decade for mean max gusts (based on the station grid I use for storm comparison tables). There's a large margin of error with the dataset though due to stations missing data on some days so should only be used as a guide and nothing more than that.

12 Feb 2014 - 59.7 kts (Darwin)
03 Jan 2012 - 57.9 kts
18 Dec 2013 - 54.2 kts
27 Dec 2013 - 53.5 kts
11 Nov 2010 - 53.4 kts
13 Dec 2011 - 52.6 kts
23 May 2011 - 51.8 kts
30 Jan 2013 - 51.8 kts
26 Dec 2013 - 51.7 kts
23 Feb 2017 - 51.7 kts (Doris)
28 Jan 2013 - 51.3 kts
08 Dec 2011 - 51.3 kts
03 Feb 2011 - 51.1 kts
12 Sep 2011 - 50.6 kts (ex-hurricane Katia)
31 Mar 2011 - 50.4 kts
16 Oct 2017 - 50.3 kts (Ophelia)
26 Jan 2014 - 50.2 kts
03 Jan 2014 - 50.1 kts

50 kts is equivalent to 92.6 km/h. Mean wind speeds would tell somewhat of a different story I would think.

Most of these were in 2011 and 2013 :cool: Lorenzo on 4th October 2019 fits just outside the top 330 windiest days in terms of mean max gusts.

Data from Met Éireann.

6 of those were in the 7 week period from 26/12/13 to 12/2/14. One gruesome period of weather that was......

Chicken Run

Sparko wrote: »

Time for people to go park up in the famous (infamous?) Salthill carpark I guess.

I'm booked into the Salthill Hotel for Sunday night (booked weeks ago)...... That should be fun....!!!! (Won't be parking on the prom)

Galway 2020 launch event to take place in South Park beside Nimmo’s Pier Saturday afternoon. A lot of scaffolding up, a lot of people due, right at the high tide time.

Sickened it can’t get moved a few days either side.

Graces7

Deleted User wrote: »

Galway 2020 launch event to take place in South Park beside Nimmo’s Pier Saturday afternoon. A lot of scaffolding up, a lot of people due, right at the high tide time.

Sickened it can’t get moved a few days either side.

That is hard indeed. so sorry.

Waiting for the ferry to arrive ; deliveries were planned for tomorrow or later but they brought it forward because of the forecast.

Rebelbrowser

Deleted User wrote: »

Galway 2020 launch event to take place in South Park beside Nimmo’s Pier Saturday afternoon. A lot of scaffolding up, a lot of people due, right at the high tide time.

Sickened it can’t get moved a few days either side.

Is it mean to say this was always a risk for a February event? Surely a city centre location would have been safer?

M.T. Cranium

Sryanbruen, that average of peak gusts would be a good simplified version of the storm index we were talking about. But I wonder how much work it would be to produce the same list in the form of the average of your stat (average peak gust) and maximum gust anywhere in the grid. That would further capture the severity, I wonder if it would make much difference to the ranking?

That said, this Ciara needs a bit more definition to produce some exceptional gusts, in other words, a bit of a tightening of the isobars in sync with some upper level energy rotating around the parent low might come into view as we get closer to the reliable time frame, and give us a better estimate of peak gusts, because right now it looks more like a prolonged interval of yellow with the occasional orange peak.

It's basically like the Atlantic said, "okay, the arctic has pretty much given up for the winter, so I will take pity on those cold lovers and take over big time, then bring in my own kind of cold, here it comes ready or not."

Kermit.de.frog

Snow will be more prominent and to sea level from the early hours of Monday morning. I'd be looking at 5 - 10 cm in the west and north and 2 - 5 cm elsewhere.

Possibility of a longer period of snow later Monday in the southern half of the country as well.

giveitholly

The frog has spoken!!!!

Graces7

giveitholly wrote: »

The frog has spoken!!!!

THEN THERE WILL BE SNOW!

Was just on the phone to family in Canada; in BC they have about 4 inches and it has drifted so they cannot get out.

Those in Newfoundland who were just getting back to normal after being dug out of roof high snow by the army? Another snowstorm due followed by hard freezing... They are rushing round like headless chickens getting organised...

4068ac1elhodqr

The (snow) (super)moon will peak at about 7.30am GMT on Sunday, February 9.
If you live on the coast, and if the moon looks big, and the tides look high, bring in yer clothes from the washer line.

4068ac1elhodqr

Sunday Moonrise for {West Coast}: 17:47
High Tides: 5am & 5.30pm (+5.30m), 'surfs up!
E&OE.

Graces7

Just managed to get the shopping delivery in before dark and it is so lovely out you would not think what is to happen. Moon riding high and shining on the flat ocean... Almost flat calm... But the delivery rushed forward because they know the storm ahead...

Oneiric 3

Just looking at mean hourly wind speeds here for Belmullet and since 1990 (as far as Met Eireann's data goes back), we haven't seen a 6 hour mean speed 48 knots (storm 10) or more since December 1998.

Highest 6 hour mean speeds in for this station since 1990:
26th December 1998: 52.3 knots (S10)
5th January 1991: 48.8 knots (S10)
9th December 1993: 45 knots (G9)

We are lucky to even see even gust speeds of this calibre in the present climate.

--- Met Eireann.