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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

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    #722
    jArgHA
    Registered Users Posts: 1,278 ✭✭✭jArgHA


    Would anyone have a link to a good layman's guide on how to understand those sounding diagrams?


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    #723
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,594 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Knock reporting snow on the latest met eireann reports


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    #724
    littlema
    Registered Users Posts: 251 ✭✭littlema


    Clear intervals tonight with temp 2.8c and rainfall today of 1.17mm. No wind of any consequence.

    Seems U.K. got very heavy flooding& winds with planes diverted & ports shut for a time.


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    #725
    weisses
    Registered Users Posts: 9,448 ✭✭✭weisses


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    Very windy here in Kerry tonight getting the strongest winds of the day with a gust of 87 km/h a short time ago during a squally shower.

    17.5mm

    same here further west ... very heavy gusts with those showers


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    #726
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,902 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    AROME showing it nearly if not as windy tomorrow as it was today and looking like the winds carrying convective clouds far inland with what looks like numerous wintry showers from the midlands to the the East coasts comprising of lots of hail / graupel showers perhaps.

    Big convective gusts again to be expected in the Eastern half of the country.

    Sporadic lightning again tomorrow, more so in the W, NW perhaps.


    anim_ece9.gif


    anim_uxi0.gif


    anim_fki7.gif

    aromehd-56-30-0_scg8.png


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    #727
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Just gone out a quick drive up to 300m. It is snowing above 250m. This bodes well for after midnight if it’s already snowing that low.

    I have a video but I don’t know how to upload it!


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    #728
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,099 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Hailstones belting off the window here (Castlebar)


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    #729
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,675 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Just gone out a quick drive up to 300m. It is snowing above 250m. This bodes well for after midnight if it’s already snowing that low.

    I have a video but I don’t know how to upload it!


    https://streamable.com/ is the easiest way to upload videos imo. Just upload the video and it will give you a link that you can post anywhere.


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    #730
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    It won’t let me post it.


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    #731
    corsav6
    Registered Users Posts: 1,597 ✭✭✭corsav6


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    Hailstones belting off the window here (Castlebar)

    Rain belting off the windows out near Newport, not much wind either.


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    #732
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,753 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    clear here in Meath, radar beginning to look quite empty through much of Leinster. Showers have turned wintry in the west and north.


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    #733
    kerrycork13
    Registered Users Posts: 241 ✭✭kerrycork13


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Just gone out a quick drive up to 300m. It is snowing above 250m. This bodes well for after midnight if it’s already snowing that low.

    I have a video but I don’t know how to upload it!

    What part of the country are you in?


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    #734
    redsteveireland
    Registered Users Posts: 3,034 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    It won’t let me post it.

    Too few posts?


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    #735
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Kermit what you thinking for the next 2 days lol


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    #736
    Monkeynut
    Registered Users Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    It won’t let me post it.

    Pm the link to me. I can post for you.

    Or just separate the link so its not a link.


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    #737
    Monkeynut
    Registered Users Posts: 590 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    https://streamable.com/ew45p


    This is the video Nqp15hhu made.


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    #738
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Only going by my localised experience of this latest named feature, but have to say, that the UKMO, or whatever model the UK Met Office uses in their short range forecasts on their app, proved to be the most accurate regarding gust and mean wind speeds throughout the day. GFS didn't do too bad either. Worst performers by far were the ECMWF & Harmonie, with other high res models such as the Arpege not far behind, although these models did very well with regards forecast rainfall totals.

    I've come to the stage now where I just want this winter to end. Like last winter, and most winters before that, it just seems impossible to get a good old fashioned wind storm here in the west of Ireland at least, and I find the search and false hope of seeing them every winter becoming more and more tedious by the year.

    New Moon



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    #739
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    I think someone posted this before but meteociel actually carry detailed info from each Irish station (more than met.ie). See for example http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/point-de-rosee.php?region=uk which shows dew points but click on any station and you get lots more detailed info. Useful for forecasting snow over the next 48 hours...


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    #740
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Thanks for that link RebelBrowser. Had that bookmarked one time but it seemed to have went missing from the list. Tried to search for it again but I find it hard to navigate that website. Bookmarked in 'Favourites' now.

    New Moon



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    #741
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Thanks for that link RebelBrowser. Had that bookmarked one time but it seemed to have went missing from the list. Tried to search for it again but I find it hard to navigate that website. Bookmarked in 'Favourites' now.


    Yeah, crazy met.ie dont give that detail. Tried the met.ie wow site GL linked earlier and that didnt seem to be working (showed it was widely 12c across the country).


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    #742
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    jArgHA wrote: »
    Would anyone have a link to a good layman's guide on how to understand those sounding diagrams?

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057947753


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    #743
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    The leftmost line is the dew point and the red line the air temperature. You are looking for a negative dew point at 1000 (sea level).

    If the dew point and temperature are close above 0c, snow is unlikely.

    The main determinant is the wet bulb temp which should be close to 0c, which would be the middle line, as explained in the link above.


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    #744
    nthclare
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭nthclare


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057947753

    Fair play, I asked about lower uppers or upper lowers a while back now I can get more of an understanding.

    Thanks


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    #745
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,675 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Only going by my localised experience of this latest named feature, but have to say, that the UKMO, or whatever model the UK Met Office uses in their short range forecasts on their app, proved to be the most accurate regarding gust and mean wind speeds throughout the day. GFS didn't do too bad either. Worst performers by far were the ECMWF & Harmonie, with other high res models such as the Arpege not far behind, although these models did very well with regards forecast rainfall totals.

    I've come to the stage now where I just want this winter to end. Like last winter, and most winters before that, it just seems impossible to get a good old fashioned wind storm here in the west of Ireland at least, and I find the search and false hope of seeing them every winter becoming more and more tedious by the year.


    UKV, part of the "Unified model" (UKMO model suite) which Euro4 is also a part of.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unified_Model


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    #746
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    A few 18Z GFS soundings for a couple of spots around the country (red dots) during that system tomorrow morning. Very saturated profiles, so no scope for evaporative cooling. Temperatures and wbt hovering around zero or slightly above in those blue ("snow") areas, but well above it in the far south. High ground will do very well out of it.

    502391.png

    502392.png

    502393.png
    502394.png


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    #747
    Nqp15hhu
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭Nqp15hhu


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    A few 18Z GFS soundings for a couple of spots around the country (red dots) during that system tomorrow morning. Very saturated profiles, so no scope for evaporative cooling. Temperatures and wbt hovering around zero or slightly above in those blue ("snow") areas, but well above it in the far south. High ground will do very well out of it.

    502391.png

    502392.png

    502393.png
    502394.png

    Thanks for sharing. I have just had a look at that site, it’s fairly good. For my location (Ulster) the wet bulb temp hovers around 0c, rising a tad tomorrow afternoon, then back down. Wet bulb reaches 0c around 3am.

    It is currently 1.5c.

    I see the GFS is still predicting 516dam on Tuesday afternoon. That is pretty low for an Atlantic air stream!


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    #748
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    Approximately when is this system expected to be fully clear of Ireland? There are still squally heavy showers in Cork accompanied by fairly blustery gusts at 00:30


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    #749
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    Thanks for sharing. I have just had a look at that site, it’s fairly good. For my location (Ulster) the wet bulb temp hovers around 0c, rising a tad tomorrow afternoon, then back down. Wet bulb reaches 0c around 3am.

    It is currently 1.5c.

    I see the GFS is still predicting 516dam on Tuesday afternoon. That is pretty low for an Atlantic air stream!

    I reckon it's underdoing it by a few dams. Today's 12Z Valentia sounding had a thickness of around 543 dam, yet the 06Z GFS run had it at around 538 for the same time. An error of -5 dam just 6 hours out. Something more like 520 dam along the west coast tomorrow seems more likely.


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    #750
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Quite surprised but some of these smaller showers are still reaching Dublin! Just had another rain shower, temperature isn’t cold enough yet obviously, :pac:


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    #751
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Expect these squalls to penetrate a good way in land, very gusty winds also, probably worse than last 24 hours


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