Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

First Up

Boredstiff666 wrote:

If I was making something simple like wooden boxes for anything. If I am in UK I can make boxes which are fit for purpose and as long as they are then they are a saleable item to anybody around the world who wants that product and deems it suitable.

If the UK deviates from EU standards for wooden boxes, then that market is off the table for starters.

Even if they keep EU standards, their EU customers will have to factor in port congestion and the extra paperwork needed to import from outside the Single Market.

But the box makers are free to look for customers on other continents to replace them. I'm sure they are eager to get started.

First Up

First Up wrote: »

The EU has, by its nature, become a formidable trade negotiator due to the size of its market, unified approach and the skills and experience of its negotiating team.

It will be interesting to see how many of the EU's trade agreements the UK can improve on when it negotiates on its own.

it depends on what is considered an improvement I guess.

The Canada agreement, for example, was delayed firstly because Poland wanted to remove the Visa requirement for its citizens and lastly because farmers in Belgium didn't like it. It is reasonable to presume that both of these required some kind of concession by the EU.

The UK would be entering negotiations without having to consider the concerns of other states, only its own. It may be happy to give relatively high quotas on beef, for example, in return for low tariffs on cars.

Tony EH

First Up wrote: »

They will do well to find enough "other countries" to replace the 46% they sell to the EU. I wonder what concessions they will need to make to strike deals. I know India is putting visas on the table.

Perhaps. But if anything was ever poorly thought out, it was Brexit.

Boredstiff666

First Up wrote: »

If the UK deviates from EU standards for wooden boxes, then that market is off the table for starters.

Even if they keep EU standards, their EU customers will have to factor in port congestion and the extra paperwork needed to import from outside the Single Market.

But the box makers are free to look for customers on other continents to replace them. I'm sure they are eager to get started.

But thats the whole point. The UK are looking for customers to replace the EU and most likely getting them which will start to become apparent after next week.

Which means that the EU has a loose canon on its doorstep of their own making. Not great. Probably why they keep banging on about tieing the UK to this and that. But that policy simply will not work.

It's a bit like kindergarden kids saying ....if you want to be my friend and come to my party you cant speak to big jimmy and little tommy off the council estate.

Doesn't work.

Anyway just wait and see.

PeadarCo

Aegir wrote: »

it depends on what is considered an improvement I guess.

The Canada agreement, for example, was delayed firstly because Poland wanted to remove the Visa requirement for its citizens and lastly because farmers in Belgium didn't like it. It is reasonable to presume that both of these required some kind of concession by the EU.

The UK would be entering negotiations without having to consider the concerns of other states, only its own. It may be happy to give relatively high quotas on beef, for example, in return for low tariffs on cars.

But you the UK will enter negotiations with a fraction of the potential market size than it had as part of the EU. And more importantly the UK desperately needs trade deals. It will still have to compromise.

To see this in action just look at the Brexit so far. The EU has been in complete control to the point that to get even the withdrawal agreement its had to surrender partial control of its territory to the EU. And remember the EU more than any other country or organisation is in the most need of a trade deal with the UK. So what you are looking at here with UK EU trade negotiations is arguably the best case scenario for the UK when it comes to trade negotiations. Which tells its own story for talks with other trade blocks.



And while the UK only needs to consider its own interests that assumes the UKs interests can be clearly defined. The biggest reason for hold up with the withdrawal agreement was not the EU but competing interests within the UK. Leaving the EU while reducing the amount of competing interests does not eliminate them.

First Up

Boredstiff666 wrote:

But thats the whole point. The UK are looking for customers to replace the EU and most likely getting them which will start to become apparent after next week.

Yes, its a big world out there and if UK wooden box makers can be competetive in the US, Asia or Latin America then good luck to them. We will see how they get on.

Larbre34

First Up wrote: »

Yes, its a big world out there and if UK wooden box makers can be competetive in the US, Asia or Latin America then good luck to them. We will see how they get on.

I completely agree.

At the other end of the scale, who is going to readily replace all the tech, pharma and high end consumer goods that they sell into the EU? It should be mentioned, all those cars and engines, built in the UK are European spec!!

The EU is 44% of Britain's market, that simply does not get replaced easily, otherwise they would be supplying those alternates already. Who do Britain think they are going to compete with, the Chinese? Taiwan? Give me a break.

First Up

Larbre34 wrote:

The EU is 44% of Britain's market, that simply does not get replaced easily, otherwise they would be supplying those alternates already. Who do Britain think they are going to compete with, the Chinese? Taiwan? Give me a break.

I wonder what the Chinese will demand from the UK in return for allowing them flood the Chinese market with low grade wooden boxes?

Some of this stuff is truly surreal.

Padre_Pio

First Up wrote: »

I wonder what the Chinese will demand from the UK in return for allowing them flood the Chinese market with low grade wooden boxes?

Some of this stuff is truly surreal.

Thats the crux of the matter. The UK are service, aerospace, pharma and high end engineering.

There's no market for this in most of the world. What do the UK make that Ghana or Vietnam want? Sweet FA.

They need the EU and US, and to less extent Japan, Oz and the BRIC countries.

Any talk about lower standards is bollox. There's plenty of places already building cheap products.

Also EU standards arent particularly high. They're just safety standards more than anything. You can still make poor quality products that don't work under EU regs, just means it won't kill you when it fails. People have a notion that standards are restrictive, but they're not. They force you to be a better designer and manufacturer by considering all the ways that people have f*cked up in the past and stop cowboys putting dangerous product on the market.

So for the wooden box example above, the box maker only has to ensure his product is fit for purpose, doesn't contain any dangerous chems or preservatives, and isnt designed in a way to hurt people. Common sense stuff. He can still use thin, weak wood, three rusty nails and a bit of baling twine so long as the above criteria are met.

First Up

Aegir wrote:

The Canada agreement, for example, was delayed firstly because Poland wanted to remove the Visa requirement for its citizens and lastly because farmers in Belgium didn't like it. It is reasonable to presume that both of these required some kind of concession by the EU.

Yes, plenty of haggling and horse trading; that's how these things get done. There is scope for plenty of haggling between Welsh farmers and Birmingham toolmakers too. The difference is that the EU has been doing this since before the UK stopped doing it in 1973.

Aegir wrote:

The UK would be entering negotiations without having to consider the concerns of other states, only its own. It may be happy to give relatively high quotas on beef, for example, in return for low tariffs on cars.

They will have enough to do on their own. That's why they are trying to entice people back from Brussels and from as far away as Singapore and New Zealand to help. (Getting people out of retirement too.)

Nijmegen

I know the coronavirus thing is no laughing matter, but please allow me a giggle at this:

https://twitter.com/olivermiocic/status/1222518331519000580?s=20

moritz1234

First Up wrote: »

Yes, its a big world out there and if UK wooden box makers can be competetive in the US, Asia or Latin America then good luck to them. We will see how they get on.

Importing a lot or some of the components to make the wooden boxes should be taken in to account. There isn't a lot of wood in the UK.

moritz1234

China might have some cheap wood to import but it mightn't be "treated" so well or maintain/uphold some fire standards.

moritz1234

Unless you lower the regulations

Leroy42

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

No it doesnt. Thats where you prove with your comment you know absolutely nothing about what you are talking about.

If I was making something simple like wooden boxes for anything. If I am in UK I can make boxes which are fit for purpose and as long as they are then they are a saleable item to anybody around the world who wants that product and deems it suitable.

If I was governed by for example regs which state wooden boxes have to be out of a certain wood of a certain grade of a certain etc etc etc. All may be fine but obviously make the product harder and more expensive to produce and may be overkill for the buyer. Then my boxes may have a problem competing with the UK boxes.

Just a very simple example but there you go.

Also the tax system. The UK can drop and abolish vat or any tax to suit now without having to worry or be breaking any rules from Brussels. The same with other things.

In your example the French manufacturer of said box can sell it without tariffs, whilst the UK will have tariffs. If you are buying a laptop online, each site has €1000 but one site has a delivery charge on the other doesn't, which one are you going to buy?

Then you need to factor in that the delivery from the UK may be held up due to custom checks etc and thats another factor to consider.

And what about warranty (probably not a major consideration for wooden boxes but!) we have EU wide warranties, will the UK product adhere to that or their own?

Even in that simple example there are a number of factors to choose the French box over the UK one. Of course the UK can counter all of those with reduction in taxes, reduction in costs etc, but who pays for that? Who will lose out from lower tax take, and thus less money to spend on services? How is the company going to reduce costs? Payroll, staff, rent, rates, materials (unless of course the wood is imported which may result in a tariff).

But the biggest problem is that to sell the box at all the UK are going to have to agree to at least match the regulations in the EU. And now they have to set up their own bodies to undertake the checks instead of a centralised EU system. So they don't even have their own regulations despite all the messing.

As for other markets, can you point to any current EU regulations and/or trade deals that are stopping companies in the UK from trading outside the EU?

Larbre34

Larbre34 wrote: »

I completely agree.

At the other end of the scale, who is going to readily replace all the tech, pharma and high end consumer goods that they sell into the EU? It should be mentioned, all those cars and engines, built in the UK are European spec!!

The EU is 44% of Britain's market, that simply does not get replaced easily, otherwise they would be supplying those alternates already. Who do Britain think they are going to compete with, the Chinese? Taiwan? Give me a break.

It doesn’t need to be replaced though does it, unless there is a complete trade embargo coming that no one has heard about.

First Up

moritz1234 wrote:

Importing a lot or some of the components to make the wooden boxes should be taken in to account. There isn't a lot of wood in the UK.

Wooden boxes were the example chosen by our gallant Brexiteer to illustrate the bright future ahead of the UK. Yes, it was a particularly stupid example but the same realities apply to everything.

The UK is an advanced economy that does most of its business with other advanced economies and in advanced industries. Problem is, the higher up the value chain, the greater the demand for precision, compliance, traceability and integrated supply chains. Being in the Single Market allowed this and has allowed the UK exploit its strengths.

Leaving it is commercial suicide.

First Up

Aegir wrote:

It doesn’t need to be replaced though does it, unless there is a complete trade embargo coming that no one has heard about.

Not an embargo; just enough negatives to make it easier and more attractive to do business elsewhere. Its a competitive world and there's no shortage of people queuing up to replace UK suppliers.

FrancieBrady

Genuinely embarrassed for British people after that display by Farage.

Skyfloater

First Up wrote: »

Not an embargo; just enough negatives to make it easier and more attractive to do business elsewhere. Its a competitive world and there's no shortage of people queuing up to replace UK suppliers.

Up to now if you wanted to buy from Amazon*, you went to amazon.co.uk because it was in English. So where are people going to buy from now to avoid the hassle with duties and delays, Amazon.fr and google translate?

*Or any UK website for that matter.

Skyfloater

Skyfloater wrote: »

Up to now if you wanted to buy from Amazon*, you went to amazon.co.uk because it was in English. So where are people going to buy from now to avoid the hassle with duties and delays, Amazon.fr and google translate?

*Or any UK website for that matter.

Shouldn't need Google translate as a separate service, most browsers will automatically translate to English.

fly_agaric

Nijmegen wrote: »

I know the coronavirus thing is no laughing matter, but please allow me a giggle at this:

https://twitter.com/olivermiocic/status/1222518331519000580?s=20

I suppose it is pragmatic and sensible to get the very last drop out of any benefits of being a vassal state member !

timetogo1

Skyfloater wrote: »

Up to now if you wanted to buy from Amazon*, you went to amazon.co.uk because it was in English. So where are people going to buy from now to avoid the hassle with duties and delays, Amazon.fr and google translate?

*Or any UK website for that matter.

I've used amazon.de and amazon.it without any major issue.
Worth doing now too as sometimes stuff is cheaper on those sites.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Genuinely embarrassed for British people after that display by Farage.

It was pretty cringeworthy,I was glad when his microphone was cut off!

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

It was pretty cringeworthy,I was glad when his microphone was cut off!

McGuinness showed remarkable restraint. British English people must be deeply embarrassed by their behaviour today.

RobMc59

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

McGuinness showed remarkable restraint. British English people must be deeply embarrassed by their behaviour today.

Farage has the skin of a rhino,didn't he apply for a German passport the day after the brexit vote?

Professor Moriarty

RobMc59 wrote: »

Farage has the skin of a rhino,didn't he apply for a German passport the day after the brexit vote?

He actually didn't. His wife and two of his kids have German passports so he's fine. I presume the Brexit Party will disband and piss off now.

theological

Aegir wrote: »

It doesn’t need to be replaced though does it, unless there is a complete trade embargo coming that no one has heard about.

The idea that this 44% (UK exports to the EU) will end overnight is also an absurdity. It is only the reduction of trade with the EU that will need to be replaced. Not the whole 44% because the UK will definitely keep trading with the EU in some capacity after the transition period.

A number of countries want to expand trade with the UK as a result of Brexit. So while I accept the understanding that in the short to medium term there will likely be a reduction in trade with the EU I don't doubt that this will be replaced or exceeded in due time.

First Up

theological wrote:

A number of countries want to expand trade with the UK as a result of Brexit.

Yes, but their interest is in selling more to the UK, not buying more from it.

Boredstiff666

Leroy42 wrote: »

In your example the French manufacturer of said box can sell it without tariffs, whilst the UK will have tariffs. If you are buying a laptop online, each site has €1000 but one site has a delivery charge on the other doesn't, which one are you going to buy?

Then you need to factor in that the delivery from the UK may be held up due to custom checks etc and thats another factor to consider.

And what about warranty (probably not a major consideration for wooden boxes but!) we have EU wide warranties, will the UK product adhere to that or their own?

Even in that simple example there are a number of factors to choose the French box over the UK one. Of course the UK can counter all of those with reduction in taxes, reduction in costs etc, but who pays for that? Who will lose out from lower tax take, and thus less money to spend on services? How is the company going to reduce costs? Payroll, staff, rent, rates, materials (unless of course the wood is imported which may result in a tariff).

But the biggest problem is that to sell the box at all the UK are going to have to agree to at least match the regulations in the EU. And now they have to set up their own bodies to undertake the checks instead of a centralised EU system. So they don't even have their own regulations despite all the messing.

As for other markets, can you point to any current EU regulations and/or trade deals that are stopping companies in the UK from trading outside the EU?

You refer to selling into the EU. I was referring to the rest of the world.

As for your last point the UK now has as far as I know no EU regs selling outside the EU.

On a side note...............Whats the biggest killer of sales of goods withing the EU today?

VAT. It is obscene and a tax of nearly 25% of the sale price. So basically every body is penalised by nearly a quarter of the price of goods just for purchasing an item or needing to purchase an item.

The rest of the world enjoys vat free goods far cheaper than EU countries.

It is an obscene tax that Gov's have become addicted too and unfortunately the EU champions and wants standardised throughout their countries and at the high rate.

At least out of the EU it could if wanted lowered permanently.

VAT was an EU tax I think origionally ideared at the beginning of the EU and introduced into most countries when they joined.