Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

I wouldn't know what was on the minds of those who voted for brexit as apart from disliking the increasingly overbearing interference from brussels I think remaining in the EU was the best option.
Johnson is untrustworthy and I would be happy to see him gone.As the details of the potential deal with Australia aren't yet known, whether its good or bad isn't apparent.
You claim to not want an opinion on brexit yet your "readings"of the situation so far amounts to just that,an opinion.

10bn at least spent on preparing for no deal is not an opinion.
No stated benefits is not an opinion.
Damage to fishing industry is not an opinion
Threat of violence is not an opinion.
5 years wasted on political fighting is not an opinion
Threat to the Union is not an opinion.

These are all real. The only opinion around here is yours that all the above will be worth it based on your opinion that eventually everything will work out. Somehow, despite the government being untrustworthy.

You are quite correct to state the deal details aren't known, so its odd that you brought it up and have already given it the potential benefit of access to membership of CPTPP.

More opinion and supposition. Which is fine except that ignores all the reality of what has already occurred.

Brexit itself is based entirely on opinion, there are no facts to back it up.

RobMc59

Leroy42 wrote: »

10bn at least spent on preparing for no deal is not an opinion.
No stated benefits is not an opinion.
Damage to fishing industry is not an opinion
Threat of violence is not an opinion.
5 years wasted on political fighting is not an opinion
Threat to the Union is not an opinion.

These are all real. The only opinion around here is yours that all the above will be worth it based on your opinion that eventually everything will work out. Somehow, despite the government being untrustworthy.

You are quite correct to state the deal details aren't known, so its odd that you brought it up and have already given it the potential benefit of access to membership of CPTPP.

More opinion and supposition. Which is fine except that ignores all the reality of what has already occurred.

Brexit itself is based entirely on opinion, there are no facts to back it up.

If I speculate about a possible deal,having already said I see no obvious advantages for the UK in this deal,what's wrong with that?
The majority of what's posted on boards is merely opinion or speculation based .How it's received generally depends on the persuasion of the posters.British views are generally frowned upon regarding anything to do with brexit although I'd like to discuss brexit with you in the relevant thread.

RobMc59

Along with the proposed UK-Australia trade deal,the proposed CANZUK alliance appears to be picking up speed.

https://twitter.com/CANZUK/status/1386349280336678912?s=19

The Raging Bile Duct

RobMc59 wrote: »

Along with the proposed UK-Australia trade deal,the proposed CANZUK alliance appears to be picking up speed.

https://twitter.com/CANZUK/status/1386349280336678912?s=19

Seems a bit weird considering free movement was a bugbear of theirs when it came to the EU and they put a stop to reciprocal agreements that would have benefited the likes of artists, actors and musicians.

Donald Trump

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Seems a bit weird considering free movement was a bugbear of there's when it came to the EU and they put a stop to reciprocal agreements that would have benefited the likes of artists, actors and musicians.

They possibly consider it to be a return of their Empire possessions and assume they'll be making all the decisions from the UK.

RobMc59

RobMc59 wrote: »

Along with the proposed UK-Australia trade deal,the proposed CANZUK alliance appears to be picking up speed.

https://twitter.com/CANZUK/status/1386349280336678912?s=19

That Canzuk website / page took a quote from Dan Tehan talking about the UK-AUS deal.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/uk-australia-trade-talks-reaching-turning-point-with-hopes-high-for-deal-20210423-p57log.html

It doesn't have any legitimacy and it's totally inaccurate to state that because what is effectively a blog requoted something in a different context, it is "picking up speed". If Canada or New Zealand had had any input, or there any been any new meetings regarding Canzuk, you'd have a point.

The Raging Bile Duct

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Seems a bit weird considering free movement was a bugbear of there's when it came to the EU and they put a stop to reciprocal agreements that would have benefited the likes of artists, actors and musicians.

I can tell you first-hand that since British people can't easily move to the EU, those who wish to move are bemoaning the requirements to get into Australia. So yeah, plenty of Brexiteers do now want freedom of movement with some other English-speaking white countries, because they have nowhere else to move to.

My best friend has gone from wanting to move to Italy, to wanting to move to Australia, to moving back to the UK.

RobMc59

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That Canzuk website / page took a quote from Dan Tehan talking about the UK-AUS deal.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/uk-australia-trade-talks-reaching-turning-point-with-hopes-high-for-deal-20210423-p57log.html

It doesn't have any legitimacy and it's totally inaccurate to state that because what is effectively a blog requoted something in a different context, it is "picking up speed". If Canada or New Zealand had had any input, or there any been any new meetings regarding Canzuk, you'd have a point.

If the UK is moving on and looking to forge new alliances why all the negatively evident from some posters when the UK is trying to do just that-move on?
Perhaps it's not the UK that needs to be told to move on. Here's another link with a bit more detail.

https://www.canzukinternational.com/latestnews

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

If the UK is moving on and looking to forge new alliances why all the negatively evident from some posters when the UK is trying to do just that-move on?
Perhaps it's not the UK that needs to be told to move on. Here's another link with a bit more detail.

https://www.canzukinternational.com/latestnews

This is just an idea though. You're talking as if it's seriously going to happen in the near future.

RobMc59

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is just an idea though. You're talking as if it's seriously going to happen in the near future.

The deal between Australia and the UK isn't just an idea.Any proposed CANZUK alliance is one for the future but anything like this or the Australia UK deal could have advantages for Irish people too,certainly food for thought.

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

If the UK is moving on and looking to forge new alliances why all the negatively evident from some posters when the UK is trying to do just that-move on?
Perhaps it's not the UK that needs to be told to move on. Here's another link with a bit more detail.

https://www.canzukinternational.com/latestnews

As usual with Brexit, it the hypocrisy of it.
FoM was apparently at the core of every ill, but now FoM is to be welcomed.

FoM is the complete opposite of controlling our borders!

All because the UK want FoM to Australia of course. Give it a few years, when the UK has loads more Aussies and you will see a backlash against them

stoneill

Australia and New Zealand want a deal with EU more - UK is a small and limited market.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

The deal between Australia and the UK isn't just an idea.Any proposed CANZUK alliance is one for the future but anything like this or the Australia UK deal could have advantages for Irish people too,certainly food for thought.

The free movement thing most certainly is. It's been about for several years now with no real progress having been made.

RobMc59

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can tell you first-hand that since British people can't easily move to the EU, those who wish to move are bemoaning the requirements to get into Australia. So yeah, plenty of Brexiteers do now want freedom of movement with some other English-speaking white countries, because they have nowhere else to move to.

My best friend has gone from wanting to move to Italy, to wanting to move to Australia, to moving back to the UK.

I've no sympathy with people who voted for brexit and now have to suffer the consequences,I've had numerous heated discussions with quite a few work mates who were subsequently moaning about new rules for holiday makers etc.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I've no sympathy with people who voted for brexit and now have to suffer the consequences,I've had numerous heated discussions with quite a few work mates who were subsequently moaning about new rules for holiday makers etc.

But you see any of those problems you comment on here as the EU being bullies and intransigent or vindictive. Okie doke.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

But you see any of those problems you comment on here as the EU being bullies and intransigent or vindictive. Okie doke.

What?

6541

Great news I might be able to get into Australia with my UK passport now.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

What?

Brexit caused the problems.
But you only seem to blame the EU for the 'problems' on here. Intransigent, bullying and vindictive in you various opinions expressed here. Strange stance for someone who has no sympathy for those in favour of Brexit.

RobMc59

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Brexit caused the problems.
But you only seem to blame the EU for the 'problems' on here. Intransigent, bullying and vindictive in you various opinions expressed here. Strange stance for someone who has no sympathy for those in favour of Brexit.

I've consistently said I was against brexit from the very beginning and would have preferred to remain in the EU.
But I've realised the UK must move on.

Leroy42

Move on to what though? That has been the point since the vote itself. Nobody can agree what moving on actually means.

Everyone has a different interpretation of it. Move on to closer integration? Less integration. WA, NIP, border controls, import and export controls?

Part of EU science groups, share intel etc etc.

Move on is an easy thing to say, and like the whole of Brexit it actually means nothing.

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

Move on to what though? That has been the point since the vote itself. Nobody can agree what moving on actually means.

Everyone has a different interpretation of it. Move on to closer integration? Less integration. WA, NIP, border controls, import and export controls?

Part of EU science groups, share intel etc etc.

Move on is an easy thing to say, and like the whole of Brexit it actually means nothing.

Which is primarily the fault of the EU according to Rob...would that not be right?

RobMc59

Leroy42 wrote: »

Move on to what though? That has been the point since the vote itself. Nobody can agree what moving on actually means.

Everyone has a different interpretation of it. Move on to closer integration? Less integration. WA, NIP, border controls, import and export controls?

Part of EU science groups, share intel etc etc.

Move on is an easy thing to say, and like the whole of Brexit it actually means nothing.

If brexit cannot be reversed I'd like a labour government to try to renegotiate a deal with the EU with closer alignment-I wouldn't have even thought that let alone post it but the sleaze claims over the redecoration,coupled with the
alleged piled up bodies remarks could hopefully be the end of Johnson.

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

If brexit cannot be reversed I'd like a labour government to try to renegotiate a deal with the EU with closer alignment-I wouldn't have even thought that let alone post it but the sleaze claims over the redecoration,coupled with the
alleged piled up bodies remarks could hopefully be the end of Johnson.

Brexit can be reversed — if the UK has a change of heart and actually wants to reverse it, and is open to what that would require.

Right now, none of this is the case, obviously. That makes reversal impossible in the short to medium term. But it also puts barriers in the way of a renegotiated "deal with the EU with closer alignment". The UK's conduct over the past five years has left it with next to zero negotiating credibility with the EU. If the UK were to seek closer integration, I think the EU would regard that with extreme suspicion. I think the attitude would be "let's see you make a go of the current deal that you have negotiated, signed, ratified and had enorsed by the people in a general election. If you can show that you can do that consistently in a grown-up fashion for a few years, we might be open to moving on to something closer".

I get that Rob's hypothesis is that this might happen following a change of government, so the EU wouldn't be dealing with the current Vote Leave government. I don't think that makes much difference, to be honest. The UK's adversarial winner-takes-all politics is what has got them into the present shemozzle in the first place. The EU wouldn't negotiate anything long-term purely on the basis of Labour being in office — they won't be in office for ever. They'd be looking at attitudes and commitment that crossed party lines. They wouldn't care that the Labour party might value a closer relationship with the EU — they'd want to know that the UK would value a closer relationship with the EU.

timetogo1

Peregrinus wrote: »

Brexit can be reversed — if the UK has a change of heart and actually wants to reverse it, and is open to what that would require.

I think reversed is the wrong word there. To me that implies going back to the way it was. That ship has sailed. And I think in some sectors (e.g. financial) the EU is beginning to benefit.

BRINO is possible and most likely in my opinion. Freedom of Movement isn't coming back any time soon though.

Rejoining is possible but not likely in the next decade. The UK is still too divided and a lot are still in the "blame the EU" mode for anything bad that happens to them.

Peregrinus

timetogo1 wrote: »

I think reversed is the wrong word there. To me that implies going back to the way it was. That ship has sailed. And I think in some sectors (e.g. financial) the EU is beginning to benefit.

BRINO is possible and most likely in my opinion. Freedom of Movement isn't coming back any time soon though.

Rejoining is possible but not likely in the next decade. The UK is still too divided and a lot are still in the "blame the EU" mode for anything bad that happens to them.

By reversing Brexit I simply mean rejoining the EU. I agree with you that this is technically possible but not realistically likely, at least for many years.

A closer association, short of rejoining, is possible. Any arrangement that doesn't involve freedom of movement wouldn't be BRINO ("Brexit in name only"), since not having freedom of movement is a major change from the situation that prevailed when the UK was a member state, and was presented as one of the major goals of the Brexit movement. Anyone trying to characterise it as not a major change but something purely cosmetic is either very stupid or, more probably, a liar.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote: »

By reversing Brexit I simply mean rejoining the EU. I agree with you that this is technically possible but not realistically likely, at least for many years.

A closer association, short of rejoining, is possible. Any arrangement that doesn't involve freedom of movement wouldn't be BRINO ("Brexit in name only"), since not having freedom of movement is a major change from the situation that prevailed when the UK was a member state, and was presented as one of the major goals of the Brexit movement. Anyone trying to characterise it as not a major change but something purely cosmetic is either very stupid or, more probably, a liar.

The UK lost any negotiating strength it thought it had the day it triggered A50. If they apply to rejoin it will be on the EU's terms and with the agreement of all 27 members. That includes the Euro and FOM.

No "arrangements"

Peregrinus

First Up wrote: »

The UK lost any negotiating strength it thought it had the day it triggered A50. If they apply to rejoin it will be on the EU's terms and with the agreement of all 27 members. That includes the Euro and FOM.

Oh, sure.

First Up wrote: »

No "arrangements"

There can certainly be "arrangements". The UK already has an arrangement with the EU - the Withdrawal Agreement plus the TCA - and there is no reason why that arrangement could not be amended or replaced by agreement between the EU and the UK. There would be nothing unusual about this. Lots of non-member states have a variety of arrangements with the EU.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote: »

Oh, sure.


There can certainly be "arrangements". The UK already has an arrangement with the EU - the Withdrawal Agreement plus the TCA - and there is no reason why that arrangement could not be amended or replaced by agreement between the EU and the UK. There would be nothing unusual about this. Lots of non-member states have a variety of arrangements with the EU.

But they are not member states. If the UK wants to rejoin the EU, there will be no "arrangements" for exceptions.

RobMc59

Peregrinus wrote: »

Oh, sure.


There can certainly be "arrangements". The UK already has an arrangement with the EU - the Withdrawal Agreement plus the TCA - and there is no reason why that arrangement could not be amended or replaced by agreement between the EU and the UK. There would be nothing unusual about this. Lots of non-member states have a variety of arrangements with the EU.

I agree that as things stand,it's unlikely the UK would suddenly do an about turn and ask to rejoin the EU.I do think a closer relationship is within reach but understand that the EU would be suspicious and member states would be sceptical especially of any overtures from the current UK government.

First Up

RobMc59 wrote: »

I agree that as things stand,it's unlikely the UK would suddenly do an about turn and ask to rejoin the EU.I do think a closer relationship is within reach but understand that the EU would be suspicious and member states would be sceptical especially of any overtures from the current UK government.

All negotiations involve a bit of give and take. EU member states are (rightly) suspicious and sceptical about the UK but they will do what's in the best interests of their own industries and economy. The UK is a nice market to sell into but companies across Europe are also doing very nicely by picking up business the UK has lost. UK exports to the EU are in free fall; sales from the EU to the UK are down as well but the UK needs the EU market a lot more than the EU needs theirs.

Of course the UK and EU will have a "relationship" but it is one of the most one-sided trade negotiations in history.