Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

completedit

lawred2 wrote: »

independent and not integrated into a global economy?

you can't be both?

not sure what independent and not integrated into a global economy means... North Korea maybe

He seems to refer to deeper integration, as opposed to any integration. Perhaps more like the pre 1980's way of things.

Brexit is confusing because you have people like Cummings and Johnson on one level speaking about creating a neo-liberal utopia, while at the same time the whole discourse and rationale behind Brexit was to reject the world that neoliberalism created. Then you have the polarizing view of the EU itself and whether its protectionist itself or a harbinger of neoliberalism.

lawred2

completedit wrote: »

He seems to refer to deeper integration, as opposed to any integration. Perhaps more like the pre 1980's way of things.

I doubt you'd get too many Irish signing up to revisiting the economics of the 70s and 80s...

Maybe that's why Irish people view the EU in positive economic terms. Because it's been positive in economic terms for Irish people.

Paddigol

completedit wrote: »

you never hear politicians talk about the ideology of the project or the cultural significance of it, it's always purely about economics. There has to be more to it; has to represent something more. Otherwise, it just hangs in the balance on the basis of economic performance. That's why the UK left; it never meant anything to them on a deeper level.

I agree with this. People seem to have completely lost sight of the basis on which the EU was born and developed. It seems the further in time we move from disaster, the more we forget the lessons supposedly learned. Which is perhaps understandable if not inevitable. Maybe its slightly different on mainland Europe, where the real brunt and trauma of two world wars was most felt.

But absolutely, it has to be about more than economics. The onus is on the pro-EU politicians to broaden its appeal and connect with the population.

I feel that a huge amount of responsibility is going to fall on the next generation of political leaders - those currently in their 20s. They'll be the first with no real tangible connection to post war Europe. Even people in their late 30s probably have grandparents who were born during WW2, felt the devestation caused by it, and witnessed the rebirth of the continent as a result of the EEC - EC- EU.

An Claidheamh

Bonniedog wrote: »

Sinn Féin - the Let's Swap Colonial Masters, Actually We Can Have Both - Party.

Alternatively, Sinn Féin know that the EU can break the UK and hasten a United Ireland

Irish pro Brexiters are quite happy to be the Britain’s serfs

completedit

lawred2 wrote: »

I doubt you'd get too many Irish signing up to revisiting the economics of the 70s and 80s...

Maybe that's why Irish people view the EU in positive economic terms. Because it's been positive in economic terms for Irish people.

I think it has been absolutely positive for Irish people. And at the end of the day, ideals are important but above all it's about livelihoods and increasing standards of living that matter most. I think people confuse what the EU was about. It was never meant to be just about eliminating tarrifs across Europe; it always had an ideological slant, for example The anthem, the flag etc.

completedit

Paddigol wrote: »

I agree with this. People seem to have completely lost sight of the basis on which the EU was born and developed. It seems the further in time we move from disaster, the more we forget the lessons supposedly learned. Which is perhaps understandable if not inevitable. Maybe its slightly different on mainland Europe, where the real brunt and trauma of two world wars was most felt.

But absolutely, it has to be about more than economics. The onus is on the pro-EU politicians to broaden its appeal and connect with the population.

I feel that a huge amount of responsibility is going to fall on the next generation of political leaders - those currently in their 20s. They'll be the first with no real tangible connection to post war Europe. Even people in their late 30s probably have grandparents who were born during WW2, felt the devestation caused by it, and witnessed the rebirth of the continent as a result of the EEC - EC- EU.

Absolutely. We have things like erasmus that in theory create a sense of identity. I was going to say this is the privilege for the well-off, which I actually disagree with tbh, but clearly not enough people are going to do it for it to shape the hearts and minds of people. We still have very little movement of people across the EU though to live and work and it mainly takes on east to west pattern.

I think the climate issue is a potential for solidarity and unity. I always have weird theories and I actually thought that Trump was good for the EU because it created an us against them mentality. You define yourself by what you are not and with Trump in the White House, it seemed in Ireland at least, we were more likely to align with a European worldview than we would with the US under Obama for example.

But yeah, as the memory of WW2 fades away it'll be interesting to see how the European project develops. I think success or failure of Brexit will have a lot to say on where the EU goes. I also think, potentially, the world will become bigger over the next few decades and we may retreat more locally, which will mean more regionalization. Our world will be the EU and buying local will be anything produced in the European Union.

Donald Trump

completedit wrote: »

We might disagree with Brexit and the mentality of Johnson and Farage and all the other 'little Englanders', but sometimes you just have to stand for something. I'll never get the people who support the EU on a purely economic basis. That sort of thinking is very common in Ireland; you never hear politicians talk about the ideology of the project or the cultural significance of it, it's always purely about economics. There has to be more to it; has to represent something more. Otherwise, it just hangs in the balance on the basis of economic performance. That's why the UK left; it never meant anything to them on a deeper level.

Lets see how much it meant to them on a deeper level when they realise that some of the things which they took for granted are not automatic entitlements any more

I have met some, seemingly otherwise educated and travelled, people from the UK who appear to think that the only impact of EU membership is that they can't have the proverbial bendy bananas any more.

Leroy42

completedit wrote: »

I think it has been absolutely positive for Irish people. And at the end of the day, ideals are important but above all it's about livelihoods and increasing standards of living that matter most. I think people confuse what the EU was about. It was never meant to be just about eliminating tarrifs across Europe; it always had an ideological slant, for example The anthem, the flag etc.

Apologies, you have got me a bit confused. In the earlier post you said it should be about ideals above economics.

But either way, the big issue with Brexit IMO, is that the UK only ever saw it in economic terms. TBF, they didn't see the societal changes that we did in Ireland, because they had many of them already. We, Ireland, are coming from a bad place, poor economy, controlled by a foreign power in the recent past, controlled by the church. UK had, and still does, 'memories' of an empire. A bygone age where they were the top dogs. So it is easy to see why one country is happy to move forward whilst the other fears moving forward and wants, instead to go back.

But, whilst all of that can be understood, it still. leaves the big hole in the BRexit argument. THey are willing to throw away a deal that they 95% agree with, on the basis of sovereignty that they happily gave up for the Japan deal. They don't want to be held to future standards, yet continually say that they want higher standards. They are willing to turn down a deal over fish, where they have already made deals with the likes of the Faroe islands. So it is nothing at all to do with either one of those issues really, it is simply that they to not want to be seen to have to share power with the EU.

ambro25

completedit wrote: »

Absolutely. We have things like erasmus that in theory create a sense of identity. I was going to say this is the privilege for the well-off, which I actually disagree with tbh, but clearly not enough people are going to do it for it to shape the hearts and minds of people. We still have very little movement of people across the EU though to live and work and it mainly takes on east to west pattern.

I think the climate issue is a potential for solidarity and unity. I always have weird theories and I actually thought that Trump was good for the EU because it created an us against them mentality. You define yourself by what you are not and with Trump in the White House, it seemed in Ireland at least, we were more likely to align with a European worldview than we would with the US under Obama for example.

But yeah, as the memory of WW2 fades away it'll be interesting to see how the European project develops. I think success or failure of Brexit will have a lot to say on where the EU goes. I also think, potentially, the world will become bigger over the next few decades and we may retreat more locally, which will mean more regionalization. Our world will be the EU and buying local will be anything produced in the European Union.

On the Continent, it was long the way of the world in land border areas since before the EEC was a thing, never mind the EU.

This is just for context and contrast, in case it gets overlooked by an insular perspective (meant in the geographical meaning of the adjective, not in a pejorative way at all).

My Italian grandparents had migrated through Germany and Belgium before they settled in northern France, working in local steel works and neighbour Luxembourgish iron ore pits...

...in the 1930s, and you had exactly the same cross-european economic migration movements throughout the XXth century, pre and post WW2 with eg Polish & Ukrainians mass-moving to South Yorkshire pits and steelworks, Italians to Welsh pits, <etc>.

There has been a *lot* more of this, in proportion, since FoM became a thing. Because it lowers the thresholds of personal enterprising required, and of hardship, involved with 'changing' countries.

First Up

Leroy42 wrote:

But, whilst all of that can be understood, it still. leaves the big hole in the BRexit argument. THey are willing to throw away a deal that they 95% agree with, on the basis of sovereignty that they happily gave up for the Japan deal. They don't want to be held to future standards, yet continually say that they want higher standards. They are willing to turn down a deal over fish, where they have already made deals with the likes of the Faroe islands. So it is nothing at all to do with either one of those issues really, it is simply that they to not want to be seen to have to share power with the EU.

We all know that Brexit was an idiotic decision, made by people who neither understood what they had joined or what they were leaving behind.

Now, with that sorted, let's concentrate on minimising the damage and disruption to our UK business and transit and use the UK's misfortune to take as much as we can of their business.

That's where we should put our energy. Brexit is done - move on.

Junkyard Tom

Johnson is the type of dope the British establishment used to send away to some far flung colony to get pissed, shoot the wildlife, and govern the natives.

https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1337367302291984386?s=20

It's all remarkably interesting yet boring at the same time.

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

It's all remarkably interesting yet boring at the same time.

It's all very Game of Thrones season 8 if you ask me.

completedit

Leroy42 wrote: »

Apologies, you have got me a bit confused. In the earlier post you said it should be about ideals above economics.

Just what I meant on this is ideals don't put food on the table. Look at the Soviet Union, you might be the most ardent communist but if the system is failing you're going to rebel against it eventually.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/jmsclrksn/status/1337397955205214208

From the start it was always said individual countries would not be involved in bilateral negotiations on Brexit.

Ardillaun

There has to be more to it; has to represent something more. Otherwise, it just hangs in the balance on the basis of economic performance. That's why the UK left; it never meant anything to them on a deeper level.

Self-preservation is a good reason for an organization. In an era of American retreat, Russian aggression and Chinese expansionism, anything we can do to bring Europe together is a good thing. If we don’t, we will become an obscure Asian peninsula dominated by others. The EU is one brick in the wall that protects us.

fergiesfolly

Having listened to Boris and his band of merry morons, I'm struck by how they're still trying to sell this as a last chance for the EU.
Surely to God, the British public have copped on to the fact that the UK could have walked away with a No Deal at any stage since the referendum, but have spent the last two years giving the EU one more chance to save themselves before being put under the heel of the might of the GREAT British empire
It's narcissism stacked on delusion stacked on idiocy.

Brexit will hurt the EU, will certainly hurt Ireland but it will flatten the UK.
Having spoken to people in England and watched the less jingoistic commentators, it's clear that they're concerned about how they'll cope after January.

First Up

Raab was indignant on BBC this morning over the UK being the only country asked to conform to EU rules. He didn't mention (nor did the interviewer point out) that the UK is also the only country outside the EU looking to have the same unfettered access to the EU market that they had enjoyed while a member.

He asked that the UK be treated the same as everyone else. It will; UK exporters and transporters will be handled in exactly the same way as those from the other non EU countries in the same queue.

BurgundyRose

Watching the news and it looks likely there will be a no deal Brexit and I'm fearful now. I was hopeful of a deal but it looks unlikely. I'm disappointed there's no deal.

Fuascailteoir

BurgundyRose wrote: »

Watching the news and it looks likely there will be a no deal Brexit and I'm fearful now. I was hopeful of a deal but it looks unlikely. I'm disappointed there's no deal.

I think there will be legitimate price rises here and then additional brexit gouging increases

BurgundyRose

fergiesfolly wrote: »

Having listened to Boris and his band of merry morons, I'm struck by how they're still trying to sell this as a last chance for the EU.
Surely to God, the British public have copped on to the fact that the UK could have walked away with a No Deal at any stage since the referendum, but have spent the last two years giving the EU one more chance to save themselves before being put under the heel of the might of the GREAT British empire
It's narcissism stacked on delusion stacked on idiocy.

Brexit will hurt the EU, will certainly hurt Ireland but it will flatten the UK.
Having spoken to people in England and watched the less jingoistic commentators, it's clear that they're concerned about how they'll cope after January.

I can't believe Boris is sending them all down the toilet. He would be better off striking some deals with the EU to try and save what's left of the UK and their economy and their pound.

I think the effects of the 08 recession had a lot to do with the Brexit vote. Its ironic because they will more than likely suffer a much deeper recession now. I know the referendum at the time was so close. The British parliament are eejits of the highest order to lead the British people and their economy down the pan. They should have helped lead the people and the economy towards stability.

BurgundyRose

Fuascailteoir wrote: »

I think there will be legitimate price rises here and then additional brexit gouging increases

I think so. I'm afraid.

igCorcaigh

Fuascailteoir wrote: »

I think there will be legitimate price rises here and then additional brexit gouging increases

Will we see price rises for all British goods, like food for example?
Should we expect something like a 20% price rise maybe?

Dyr

BurgundyRose wrote: »

Watching the news and it looks likely there will be a no deal Brexit and I'm fearful now. I was hopeful of a deal but it looks unlikely. I'm disappointed there's no deal.

Don't worry, if the EU needs Ireland to compromise for a deal our government will chuck themselves under the bus like good little boys.

The majority of our oil is imported from the UK. This will mean an increase in diesel and petrol prices at the pump, increase in transport costs for businesses etc.

Sterling is expected to drop, maybe even to parity with the Dollar. Shares in UK companies will drop, UK bank shares could drop by up to 20%.

If Sterling tanks then we lose a large percentage of our domestic tourism, both from Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Visitors from the UK make up the largest percentage of our annual tourist numbers.

Tourism in border counties such as Donegal makes up a large part of the annual revenue.

For example, a guy I know bought a pub in a town called Glenties. 2014 was a good year, 2015 was their best year (Wild Atlantic Way), but the week Brexit won the referendum in 2016, Sterling stopped appearing in the till, and he sold up in 2018.

The double whammy of Covid pandemic and Brexit will mean that a lot of tourist businesses wont reopen.

Bundoran was on the news the local headlines this evening because it has the lowest property value in the country. The average house price is under €100,000, and that is at the minute. That could drop even further once Sterling tanks, as Bundoran is a very seasonal town with a huge amount of visitors from the North.

This is just off the top of my head.

Leroy42

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The majority of our oil is imported from the UK. This will mean an increase in diesel and petrol prices at the pump, increase in transport costs for businesses etc.

Sterling is expected to drop, maybe even to parity with the Dollar. Shares in UK companies will drop, UK bank shares could drop by up to 20%.

If Sterling tanks then we lose a large percentage of our domestic tourism, both from Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Visitors from the UK make up the largest percentage of our annual tourist numbers.

Tourism in border counties such as Donegal makes up a large part of the annual revenue.

For example, a guy I know bought a pub in a town called Glenties. 2014 was a good year, 2015 was their best year (Wild Atlantic Way), but the week Brexit won the referendum in 2016, Sterling stopped appearing in the till, and he sold up in 2018.

The double whammy of Covid pandemic and Brexit will mean that a lot of tourist businesses wont reopen.

Bundoran was on the news the local headlines this evening because it has the lowest property value in the country. The average house price is under €100,000, and that is at the minute. That could drop even further once Sterling tanks, as Bundoran is a very seasonal town with a huge amount of visitors from the North.

This is just off the top of my head.

All that is a result of the decisions the UK have made.

In their mind, the only way for us to avoid those scenarios is to give the UK everything they wish. Which would destroy our economy.

Why bother investing in Ireland is you can get lower standards, and give subsidies etc in the UK and still have free access to the EU.

Bonniedog

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Alternatively, Sinn Féin know that the EU can break the UK and hasten a United Ireland

Irish pro Brexiters are quite happy to be the Britain’s serfs

SF run the north for the Brits.

Did you miss that part?

When Brexit was going to happen, the Irish state should have been covering its bets instead of doubling down on the EU forcing the Brits to concede.

Now this country will take a huge hit on fisheries for example, where they might have negotiated some sort of bilateral deal. But of course the EU doesn't allow that. which will also impact on the gas interconnector to Scotland.

Same EU that pretends to be listening to their pathics in Ireland fked them up the btm without the courtesy of a reach around to quote gunnery Sargent Hartman when it came to the bank bailout.

igCorcaigh

If sterling drops, will that offset the tariffs that we pay for British goods to some extent?

Leroy42

Bonniedog wrote: »

SF run the north for the Brits.

Did you miss that part?

When Brexit was going to happen, the Irish state should have been covering its bets instead of doubling down on the EU forcing the Brits to concede.

Now this country will take a huge hit on fisheries for example, where they might have negotiated some sort of bilateral deal. But of course the EU doesn't allow that. which will also impact on the gas interconnector to Scotland.

Same EU that pretends to be listening to their pathics in Ireland fked them up the btm without the courtesy of a reach around to quote gunnery Sargent Hartman when it came to the bank bailout.

Ireland did cover its bets. It first tried to point out the potential issues with NI. They then worked with the EU to ensure that the NI border was removed as a bargaining chip by the UK, and got the UK to agree, legally, to exclude the possibility of a border.

What else should they have done? Maybe negotiated on behalf of the UK? What in particular have the U been seeking that you think Ireland should have pushed our EU partners to agree to?

Donald Trump

Bonniedog wrote: »

SF run the north for the Brits.

Did you miss that part?

When Brexit was going to happen, the Irish state should have been covering its bets instead of doubling down on the EU forcing the Brits to concede.

Now this country will take a huge hit on fisheries for example, where they might have negotiated some sort of bilateral deal. But of course the EU doesn't allow that. which will also impact on the gas interconnector to Scotland.

Same EU that pretends to be listening to their pathics in Ireland fked them up the btm without the courtesy of a reach around to quote gunnery Sargent Hartman when it came to the bank bailout.

Why on earth would, or should, Ireland bend over to help the UK at no benefit to themselves? UK mindset towards Ireland in Brexit seems to have been "we're the big guys and we can bully and threaten them and tell them what to do. The EU wont stick up for them".


It would be of course far better had the UK not chosen to leave. But once they did then we have to make a choice. And the choice to stay in a strong and united EU is better than isolating ourselves just to be closer to the UK so that they could try to bully us around some more.


What would you have proposed? Maybe that Ireland leave the single market and enter into a free trade area with the UK? So that there would be customs and barriers on anything going to or coming from the continent?