Will Britain piss off and get on with Brexit II (mod warning in OP)

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK's reluctance to engage in genuine brexit negotiations has been pathetic to date.All I'm pointing out is preparation for no deal appears to be ramping up . . .

But the preparations you point to are not necessarily "preparation for no deal". The facilities in question will be required whether or not there is a deal.

RobMc59 wrote: »

. . . the news that the UK government plans to change the law to bypass the WA has possibly been the strategy from the beginning if they don't get their own way.

I am sceptical that this can have been their intention from the beginning. They could get to the same point (no FTA, and no WA obligations) by not entering into the WA in the first place, and just having a no-deal Brexit in January. By entering into the WA with the intention of repudiating it, all they would do is defer the shock of no-deal by 11 months, at a cost of (a) the tens of billions they will pay by way of divorce payment under the WA between January 2020 and December 2020 and (b) the enormous reputational cost to the UK of entering into a treaty and then more or less immediately violating it. That seems a huge price to pay just to defer no-deal by 11 months - especially if you see no-deal as something that you can accept.

So, no, this wasn't the plan from the outset. This is more likely to be panic. The EU was supposed to cave to a UK that held all the cards. When that didn't happen, it was because May was a girly remainer who did not display sufficient resolve, but the EU would surely cave to the UK when led by a PM with true Brexity resolve and proper XY chromosomes. Now that isn't happening, and time is running short. So the Brexity response is "display greater manly resolve!", and they think of this pathetic gesture as a display of resolve.

I'd see this as panicky because it's so poorly thought out. This move makes it less likely that the EU will cave; we cannot afford to allow an impression to be formed that, if you're negotiating with the EU, threatening to violate the treaty commitments you just made will be an effective way of getting the EU to agree to give you what you want. So, far from giving the EU reason to cave, this gives us increased reason to stand firm. We have other - and, frankly, bigger - trade negotiations to think about as well.

Leroy42

I think it was JRM that said, I could be wrong, that any deal that was signed can be reneged on later.

So whilst it may not have been the outright plan from the start I do think that the UK felt that the EU would cave and as such the WA was merely a way to get something moved and use that to force an election. One must remember the political situation back in September/October 2019. There was talk of Johnson being the shortest serving PM in history and a national government being formed. There was even rumblings that the entire Brexit process could be in jeopardy.

So Johnson agress to a deal to get the process moving again. And almost immediately he started lting about what the actual WA was, and didn't let parliament time to review it.

ONe can summise that they knew very well back then that it was only ever a temporary agreement and they would either get the EU to cave or they would simply take out the bits they didn't like.

It is no accident that the likes of IDS have been coming out in the last few months to decry to WA and that the UK were within their rights to ignore it. Many felt that it was a solo run by IDS, but clearly it wasn't and it was setting up this very scenario when plenty of people will take the view that Johnson has a point and really it is the EU's own fault.

RobMc59

Peregrinus wrote: »

But the preparations you point to are not necessarily "preparation for no deal". The facilities in question will be required whether or not there is a deal.


I am sceptical that this can have been their intention from the beginning. They could get to the same point (no FTA, and no WA obligations) by not entering into the WA in the first place, and just having a no-deal Brexit in January. By entering into the WA with the intention of repudiating it, all they would do is defer the shock of no-deal by 11 months, at a cost of (a) the tens of billions they will pay by way of divorce payment under the WA between January 2020 and December 2020 and (b) the enormous reputational cost to the UK of entering into a treaty and then more or less immediately violating it. That seems a huge price to pay just to defer no-deal by 11 months - especially if you see no-deal as something that you can accept.

So, no, this wasn't the plan from the outset. This is more likely to be panic. The EU was supposed to cave to a UK that held all the cards. When that didn't happen, it was because May was a girly remainer who did not display sufficient resolve, but the EU would surely cave to the UK when led by a PM with true Brexity resolve and proper XY chromosomes. Now that isn't happening, and time is running short. So the Brexity response is "display greater manly resolve!", and they think of this pathetic gesture as a display of resolve.

I'd see this as panicky because it's so poorly thought out. This move makes it less likely that the EU will cave; we cannot afford to allow an impression to be formed that, if you're negotiating with the EU, threatening to violate the treaty commitments you just made will be an effective way of getting the EU to agree to give you what you want. So, far from giving the EU reason to cave, this gives us increased reason to stand firm. We have other - and, frankly, bigger - trade negotiations to think about as well.

You may be correct .Something I find appalling is ministers being interviewed about the latest developments seem to have no shame.
A country like Japan for example,who value honour very highly must be reviewing any potential trade deal with the UK with doubt.

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

You may be correct .Something I find appalling is ministers being interviewed about the latest developments seem to have no shame.
A country like Japan for example,who value honour very highly must be reviewing any potential trade deal with the UK with doubt.

Not really. WIthin any trade deal are remedies for breaches. If the UK does step out of a part of the deal, Japan will have recourse, and if that fails then the deal will start to fall apart. But at worst they are back to the situation they began with.

It isn't really that big of a risk.

ancapailldorcha

RobMc59 wrote: »

The UK's reluctance to engage in genuine brexit negotiations has been pathetic to date.All I'm pointing out is preparation for no deal appears to be ramping up,the news that the UK government plans to change the law to bypass the WA has possibly been the strategy from the beginning if they don't get their own way.

What I don't understand is why it's only ramping up now. Successive governments have been going on and on about ending freedom of movement, ending the jurisdiction of the ECJ over the UK and leaving the single market and customs union. We're over 75% of the way through the transition period and for it only now to be ramping up is ridiculous.

Eric Cartman

Im starting to think the British government are using covid to distract, put through other bills with loads of small changes incompatible with the WA and end up effectively in a no deal scenario.

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What I don't understand is why it's only ramping up now. Successive governments have been going on and on about ending freedom of movement, ending the jurisdiction of the ECJ over the UK and leaving the single market and customs union. We're over 75% of the way through the transition period and for it only now to be ramping up is ridiculous.

Because they felt that the EU would have caved at this point. And it seems that they are no closer to getting the deal they want than when they first started out.
From the very start, Brexit has been a fantasy based on the UK being so important and the EU being craven opportunists that will agree to anything to save their bureaucratic pensions and positions.

Instead, the EU seem to have an actual value system and seem prepared to stick to it, on the belief that the EU itself is somehow worth something.

screamer

It’s a ridiculous game of chicken at this stage, and with rumours recently that Borris is thinking of stepping down in January, I think it all just points to another Nigel Farage/ Cameron.scenario. The ultimate aim of the UK will be achieved, exiting the EU in this case, but the fallout will be so bad, the current leaders want nothing to do with it, and will foist it on another mug. UK Brexit is an absolute joke at this stage. Under 3 months to go, I think we better buckle up for a no deal Brexit, it’s about the only logical outcome at this stage.

Leroy42

My own feeling is that the realisation of the reality of the situation has struck home. Even if they get a FTA, they will need customs checks and extra costs etc. So there is no hiding the fact that despite all the promises, Brexit will cost the UK.

So now the only thing to do is to look to blame someone else. The nasty EU, with their sneaky WA which they forced Johnson to accept,a dn then forced the UK public to endorse in an open GE, caused all of this and all the costs, delays, closing business's, lost jobs etc et, is all because the EU wouldn't negotiate in good faith

If it hadn't been for that, then Brexit would have been a great success.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Because they felt that the EU would have caved at this point. And it seems that they are no closer to getting the deal they want than when they first started out.
From the very start, Brexit has been a fantasy based on the UK being so important and the EU being craven opportunists that will agree to anything to save their bureaucratic pensions and positions.

Instead, the EU seem to have an actual value system and seem prepared to stick to it, on the belief that the EU itself is somehow worth something.

I don't know about that. Whitehall would have the expertise to dissuade them of that notion. Then again, both sides seem to be fond of brinkmanship.

Peregrinus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know about that. Whitehall would have the expertise to dissuade them of that notion. Then again, both sides seem to be fond of brinkmanship.

I think the present junta in London is strongly characterised by not listening to advice that is not the advice they want to hear. The Brexit project has generally been marked by profound ignorance of what the EU is, what it does and how it operates. Advice which is based on an accurate understanding but which suggests that the Brexit project has problematic aspects will simply be dismissed because we are tired of experts, the people offering this advance are clearly craven remainers, and what we need now is not defeatism but a bit of oomph!

Leroy42

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't know about that. Whitehall would have the expertise to dissuade them of that notion. Then again, both sides seem to be fond of brinkmanship.

Brexit means Brexit, a Red, white and blue brexit. We will not be tied to EU laws. Our fish, our waters, Control over our laws. The German car makers will force a deal. The EU always caves at the 11th hour. UK is too big for the EU not to make a deal. We hold all the cards.

This, and much more, has been the dominant message from the Brexit supporters for at least the last four years. They, whether they believed it or not, put out the message that Brexit was simply a matter of getting everything they wanted and getting rid of the things they didn't.

May was blamed for not being tough enough, Robbins was a quisling that gave in too easily. We need to threaten a No Deal to force the EU.

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

You may be correct .Something I find appalling is ministers being interviewed about the latest developments seem to have no shame.
A country like Japan for example,who value honour very highly must be reviewing any potential trade deal with the UK with doubt.

It will just slow things down and they'll need to make sure things are black and white with a good and effective dispute resolution mechanism - other than that, they really wouldn't care that much.

ancapailldorcha

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think the present junta in London is strongly characterised by not listening to advice that is not the advice they want to hear. The Brexit project has generally been marked by profound ignorance of what the EU is, what it does and how it operates. Advice which is based on an accurate understanding but which suggests that the Brexit project has problematic aspects will simply be dismissed because we are tired of experts, the people offering this advance are clearly craven remainers, and what we need now is not defeatism but a bit of oomph!

True but what shocks me is the complete death of base self-interest from these people. They've placed themselves directly in the firing line just before this either blows up or they capitulate. Someone I know in DIT told me that Liam Fox was apparently quite reasonable but his replacement, Liz Truss never shows up there at all.

They're supposed to be "levelling up" the UK but they're on course to trash what remains of its manufacturing sector.

fly_agaric

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Im starting to think the British government are using covid to distract, put through other bills with loads of small changes incompatible with the WA and end up effectively in a no deal scenario.

The "Withdrawal agreement" is something UK has already committed to. Blatently breaking the withdrawal agreement is a big step beyond finishing transition with "no deal" and would be putting it up to the EU to respond to that somehow.
Seems like everyone (superpowers US & China, EUs belligerant neighbours Russia and Turkey - these 2 may be joined by the UK next year) are really putting it up the EU now and asking the big strategic questions about what the organisation stands for and what it is actually worth to its members.
If it doesn't break the EU it will probably be the push for much deeper integration.

Panrich

We're coming to the end game and the can has been kicked as far down the road as it can go. This is the morbidly fascinating final chapter to four years of posturing and bluster.

The move to renege is not surprising but the timing is certainly interesting. The talks have not collapsed but are going nowhere and this move has the potential to terminally scupper them and Johnson would clearly be to blame. In effect , as others have alluded to, this seems like a desperate move to get the EU to blink and it has so far spectacularly back-fired internationally.

It will be fascinating to see how this 'spins' for domestic UK consumption. I doubt if many minds will be changed on either side.

mick087

fly_agaric wrote: »

The "Withdrawal agreement" is something UK has already committed to. Blatently breaking the withdrawal agreement is a big step beyond finishing transition with "no deal" and would be putting it up to the EU to respond to that somehow.
Seems like everyone (superpowers US & China, EUs belligerant neighbours Russia and Turkey - these 2 may be joined by the UK next year) are really putting it up the EU now and asking the big strategic questions about what the organisation stands for and what it is actually worth to its members.
If it doesn't break the EU it will probably be the push for much deeper integration.

I have to unfortunately agree in the fact if the EU don't break then it will push for deeper integration.

Change is coming.

RobMc59

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think the present junta in London is strongly characterised by not listening to advice that is not the advice they want to hear. The Brexit project has generally been marked by profound ignorance of what the EU is, what it does and how it operates. Advice which is based on an accurate understanding but which suggests that the Brexit project has problematic aspects will simply be dismissed because we are tired of experts, the people offering this advance are clearly craven remainers, and what we need now is not defeatism but a bit of oomph!

Despite having a plethora of faults,the UK government isn't a junta..

steddyeddy

What BJ and co are doing is using the threat of breaking the withdrawal agreement as leverage. In other words they're using Northern Ireland as a pawn in these negotiations. That's pretty scummy by any standards.

Leroy42

steddyeddy wrote: »

What BJ and co are doing is using the threat of breaking the withdrawal agreement as leverage. In other words they're using Northern Ireland as a pawn in these negotiations. That's pretty scummy by any standards.

The problem they have is that by already signing the agreement they now need to actually break it, with the issues that that will entail.

It is why the question must be asked of Johnson, and the cabinet, why they pushed through the WA, remembering that they refused to allow extra time to review it, in the first place as they are undoubtedly in a worse position now than if they had no signed it.

The threat about having a border didn't seem to make much difference the last time (before the WA) so why do they think it will suddenly work now?

The EU have made it clear, from the very beginning, that this was a concession to the UK due to the unique status of NI in terms of recent history and also with the relatively small size of the transactions involved.

But the protection of the integrity of the single market was the driving factor behind the stanch of the EU, and that will now have changed.

What sort of threat is it when the other side have repeatedly said that they will not accept it, you then give in, but now you are totally serious!

VinLieger

steddyeddy wrote: »

What BJ and co are doing is using the threat of breaking the withdrawal agreement as leverage. In other words they're using Northern Ireland as a pawn in these negotiations. That's pretty scummy by any standards.

Nothing new by Tory standards though, theyve always used and abused NI and the Unionists in their power plays.

Quantum Erasure

The Prime Minister believes the Withdrawal Agreement is legally ambiguous and would leave Northern Ireland isolated from the rest of the UK, something that was "unforseen" when he agreed to it last year.

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1303073415222513664

Peregrinus

RobMc59 wrote: »

Despite having a plethora of faults,the UK government isn't a junta..

Junta: A body of men who have joined or combined for a common purpose, especially of a political character; a self-elected committee or council; a clique, faction, or cabal; a club or coterie. (From the OED.)

Given that the Vote Leave faction has taken control of the Tory party and purged it of elements who dissent from the Vote Leave program, and given that the Tory party, thus controlled, has taken power in the UK with an impregnable majority in a supine parliament despite the fact that a clear majority of voters rejected it, I don't think "junta" is an unfair term.

Where's crypto and kidchameleon? Weren't they sucking Boris's johnson lauding the deal he now says makes no sense?

VinLieger

Deleted User wrote: »

Where's crypto and kidchameleon? Weren't they sucking Boris's johnson lauding the deal he now says makes no sense?

Good point, we need to go back to last years threads and find all the hypocrites

fly_agaric

Deleted User wrote: »

Where's crypto and kidchameleon? Weren't they sucking Boris's johnson lauding the deal he now says makes no sense?

If they pop in here again will probably be to tell us all the deal was an EU plot but Sir Boris the Cunning went in with eyes open & was on to them all along. He would be bang to rights to break it and show them who is boss!

Donald Trump

Head of UK government's legal department quits over Brexit deal threat

RobMc59

Deleted User wrote: »

Where's crypto and kidchameleon? Weren't they sucking Boris's johnson lauding the deal he now says makes no sense?

I heard a rumour they were living it up in the British virgin islands or Bermuda...

steddyeddy

Donald Trump wrote: »

Head of UK government's legal department quits over Brexit deal threat

That's called integrity. Amazing to have a developed country admit that what they're doing will break international law.

I've left the country for good a few days ago. I will live and work in Germany now and I'm glad to be honest. I did have a lot of cool friends in England and overall the people were friendly, however, the country is an embarrassment right now.

I also had to put up with pure ignorance about Irish history and the EU. AT the start I held my tongue but later I called people out on their BS. Some people seemed to wear ignorance with pride.

moritz1234

The UK will not be enacting a law to alter the WA

Barnier issued whats called a "30" in the business (Short message, 30 mins to reply)

"if you disrespect the WA, we have no talks, talks over"