General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

ACitizenErased

Just voted in Cork South-Central and there were queues at the polling station.

paulie21

Will the count go ahead as expected with the nationwide orange alert?

SafeSurfer

Sparko wrote: »

Just had a party rep at the door to make sure we'd been out to vote and to try and get there before the rugby/bad weather.

I've never had that before.

A representative of who?

Hurrache

It'll be a bit blustery, that's all.

Fr Tod Umptious

paulie21 wrote: »

Will the count go ahead as expected with the nationwide orange alert?

It's only during red warnings that t I ey advise against travel so there should be no issue with just a orange warning

cameramonkey

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Looking at the 2016 version, it got the FG, Ind and Labour percentages broadly accurate, but underestimated FF by 3%, overestimated SF by 2%, and slightly inflated the smaller parties:

https://www.thejournal.ie/rte-exit-poll-2627678-Feb2016/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Irish_general_election#Voting_summary

It's interesting how these things become orthodox thinking for journalists and commentators. It's true that this has happened and not only on one occasion. So now people think that this is the way it will happen in this election. Many years ago when SF were toxic in the north they were also consistently scoring higher in the elections than they were in the polls.

I think there may be a shift going on now. SF may be getting support from people who are more motivated about voting and they may be stealing some of those softer FF vote. I could be completely wrong but I think SF and FF may get about what the polls are saying in fact I feel that SF might get even higher and FF lower.


It will be interesting where the SF surplus goes, if it stays left then there will be no traditional seat bounce for FF and FG so FG could have a really bad day and FF may be not much better.


I could be completely wrong as I am in a Dublin left bubble.

Leonard Hofstadter

My station in CSC was very busy. I voted for the FG candidates, and left it at that.

cameramonkey

Sparko wrote: »

Just had a party rep at the door to make sure we'd been out to vote and to try and get there before the rugby/bad weather.

I've never had that before.

What party?

tototoe

Girl in my polling station said they were over 30% at 12.30. first time not voting for FG/FF.

charlie14

Sparko wrote: »

Just had a party rep at the door to make sure we'd been out to vote and to try and get there before the rugby/bad weather.

I've never had that before.

I grew up in a rural constituency, and during the canvas all parties would have had volunteer drivers arranged to pick up their supporters at a given time who had no means of transport.
Last few hours on election day those driver would be driving around like lunatics trying to get those that had not already voted to vote for their cause.
As kids living near a polling station we always enjoyed the spectacle of one party car pulling up with what another party believed to be their voters, and the scrum that ensued all the way to the polling station door.

Water John

Better again was someone getting a lift from one party but revealing later they voted the another way.
Or my relation who spent the day carrying voters to the station only for his own brother to turn up late.

charlie14

cameramonkey wrote: »

It's interesting how these things become orthodox thinking for journalists and commentators. It's true that this has happened and not only on one occasion. So now people think that this is the way it will happen in this election. Many years ago when SF were toxic in the north they were also consistently scoring higher in the elections than they were in the polls.

I think there may be a shift going on now. SF may be getting support from people who are more motivated about voting and they may be stealing some of those softer FF vote. I could be completely wrong but I think SF and FF may get about what the polls are saying in fact I feel that SF might get even higher and FF lower.


It will be interesting where the SF surplus goes, if it stays left then there will be no traditional seat bounce for FF and FG so FG could have a really bad day and FF may be not much better.


I could be completely wrong as I am in a Dublin left bubble.

I have a feeling that SF have mopped up most of the left vote this time to the extent that even if the won all the 42 seats they are standing for (which is unlikely imo), with the remaining 118 seats, that others from the left will have had their FPV`s cut so much that SF surplus transfers will leave many out of contention.

paulie21

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

It's only during red warnings that t I ey advise against travel so there should be no issue with just a orange warning

Thought as much just the local football league called off all matches tomorrow got me wondering

charlie14

Water John wrote: »

Better again was someone getting a lift from one party but revealing later they voted the another way.
Or my relation who spent the day carrying voters to the station only for his own brother to turn up late.

I can remember incidents like the first you mention where voters doing that were believed by neither side and were forever after looked upon with the hairy eye. Often left with no car to collect them.

sjb25

Just out now like some others first Time Iv not voted for any ff/fg candidates at all

Pretty busy small que in the polling station which Iv never seen normally might meet one or two in it

golfball37

Voted the whole way down leaving out all FFG candidates

Sparko

SafeSurfer wrote: »

A representative of who?

Sinn Fein.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

All party's...especially those in government, will be 'green' in 5 yrs or even less. They're an obsolete party at this stage, appealing mostly to urbanites who have little else to worry about but the planet. Ryan would be more suited to a watchdog role or some specialist TV presenter role. EU legislation will take care of our commitments to change.

As another poster said, nonesense.

EU legislation will not dictate that Ireland has to cut the national herd or invest in public transport.
Like EU fiscal rules, they are broad ranges of what we must do, but the details are up to us to implement.
I know why you say the above because SF are abjectly woeful when it comes to Green policies. They are aking to climate denial.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

They are aking to climate denial.

:D:D I see there's little point discussing it with you. :D:D:D

markodaly

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, one always needs to be wary of an anonymous "senior party figure" on a solo run. 9 years is a good run in government and the chances of being returned again after 2 terms are never very high anyway.

Very hard to get three terms.

Dev did it, as did Bertie and we all know how that ended up.

Realisticly there was not too much FG could have done to hold on or gain seats.
But give them a few years and well will see how the next government magic up solutions. The manifestos and promises were crazy so the people will be upset and disappointed again.

leavingirl

Doesn't matter who wins. They will bow to their EU masters.

namloc1980

What's going on here then??

droidus

Busy enough in Finglas. I reckon it will be above average turnout today, and it feels like there's something in the air. We may be in for a few shocks later this evening.

votecounts

Sparko wrote: »

Just had a party rep at the door to make sure we'd been out to vote and to try and get there before the rugby/bad weather.

I've never had that before.

Fair play, regardless of what party they are from. The more people that vote, the better:)

Hurrache

Click through for details, it's bizarre and seems like a terrible person if anything of what he's supposed to have been involved in is true.

[url] https://www.facebook.com/joeloughpbpg/photos/pcb.2622669077952347/2622668981285690/ [/url]

FrancieBrady

droidus wrote: »

Busy enough in Finglas. I reckon it will be above average turnout today, and it feels like there's something in the air. We may be in for a few shocks later this evening.

Same here in Cavan Monaghan...but I think an awful lot are out early because of the weather too.

Getting a sense of a high turnout on SM though.

Necro

Local polling station here in Sligo/Leitrim seemed choccers this morning, yet they were reporting low turnouts in some areas so far.

Do feel there's going to be a big turnout though tbh.

sid waddell

Turnout pattern across the day is likely to be a bit different today because it's a Saturday and most people are off work. So less of an after work surge, people can stroll in at whatever time they like. Weather also driving early voting. I wouldn't necessarily say there will be increased turnout. The UK election had breathless reports of record turnout early in the day but it didn't materialise and turnout ended up being down on 2017. Also with Winter elections people probably prefer to vote in daylight hours if they can, whereas in June there's no problem strolling down to the polling booth at 9:30pm, it's still daylight.

tuxy

Alan Kelly was walking into the polling station as I was walking out.
It's not his local station so he was not voting.
Up to no good.

darem93

The weather is really starting to get quite bad here in Cavan, so I'd assume that will have a bit of an effect on turnout for the rest of the day. It would indeed be fantastic to see turnout up on the last election, but we hear of polling booths being chock-a-block for a lot of elections and referendums and it never really materialises into much.