General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

Gael23

karlndes wrote: »

The betting odds on paddy power are interesting. Cullinane 1/14, Butler 1/10, Geoghegan 1/5, Pratt 2/1, O’ Cathasaigh 5/2, Shanahan 5/2, Mulligan 3/1, Cummins 3/1, Hartley 4/1

How does that translate into seats?

AdMMM

SF, FF, FG and bloodbath for the 4th seat.

If you fancy a bet, O'Cathasaigh would be the value there. Greens will poll well and will be very transfer friendly.

Gael23

AdMMM wrote: »

SF, FF, FG and bloodbath for the 4th seat.

If you fancy a bet, O'Cathasaigh would be the value there. Greens will poll well and will be very transfer friendly.

Who for the first three? I’m not good at interpreting betting odds

AdMMM

Gael23 wrote: »

Who for the first three? I’m not good at interpreting betting odds

Sorry, I listed it in order.

1. David Cullinane (SF)
2. Mary Butler (FF)
3. D. Geoghegan (FG)
4. John Pratt (Lab) is favourite to get the forth seat but honestly it's so close between the rest of them

Paddy Power do their own opinion poll and also have an election expert on hand to set the odds initially. After that, what moves the market is people betting on it.

Muttley79

I hope Mary butler is in a Garda station right now as she seems to have evidence that an army council is alive and well in belfast.what a absolute stupid thing to say on wlr.the same old drivel from FFG.people are fed up to the last of these two parties who have done as much damage to this country the last 100 years as any other political party.i hope both parties get a big wake up call at this election

Gael23

AdMMM wrote: »

Sorry, I listed it in order.

1. David Cullinane (SF)
2. Mary Butler (FF)
3. D. Geoghegan (FG)
4. John Pratt (Lab) is favourite to get the forth seat but honestly it's so close between the rest of them

Paddy Power do their own opinion poll and also have an election expert on hand to set the odds initially. After that, what moves the market is people betting on it.

Will Geoghans votes be enough to carry Cummins across?

debok

Gael23 wrote: »

Looks like Butler really short herself in the foot on WLR this morning

Only heard it now. They must really be worried about sinn Fein that their not only trying to remind people of IRA association to sinn Fein but being specific and saying army councils ,Belfast etc . Buzz words that she thinks will hit home to people. I think she might have gone too far . FgFF seem to be to be putting foot in it alot lately. Two of them together in the debate tonight and sinn Fein might better off not being on it

karlndes

Gael23 wrote: »

Will Geoghans votes be enough to carry Cummins across?

I couldn’t see there being enough for two FG candidates to get in.

jmcc

karlndes wrote: »

The betting odds on paddy power are interesting. Cullinane 1/14, Butler 1/10, Geoghegan 1/5, Pratt 2/1, O’ Cathasaigh 5/2, Shanahan 5/2, Mulligan 3/1, Cummins 3/1, Hartley 4/1

Paddy Power is in the business of making money. Those odds may not reflect reality. The FG seat may not be safe given the backlash over pensions. Butler could lose out to Mulligan (if FF sticks with him). Shanahan may do better than those odds suggest.

Regards...jmcc

Harry Palmr

I'd say Team Cullinane would have been high fiving when they heard that, clearly FF must be worried about SF topping the poll.

vriesmays

Mulligan was in Stubbs Gazette last year.

friendlyfun

Mary Butler was actually embarrassing. Every sentence was "Micheál Martin said this, Mícheál Martin said that. Not one original thought from her. Just parroting everything the party said. Her IRA comment was just pathetic. It was like Michael Martin was in the room egging her on. She does NOT have it cut out for Waterford.

Damien was useless.Never mentioned she voted against having a referendum on the eight ammendment or how she opposed the expansion of the city with the boundary commission and how FF colleagues in the city opposed her view. If these interviews are going to be tame, beating around the bush the electorate are going to be none the wiser. Those were important omissions.

Wanderer78

Muttley79 wrote:

I hope Mary butler is in a Garda station right now as she seems to have evidence that an army council is alive and well in belfast.what a absolute stupid thing to say on wlr.the same old drivel from FFG.people are fed up to the last of these two parties who have done as much damage to this country the last 100 years as any other political party.i hope both parties get a big wake up call at this election

Watch them get the majority of votes across the country

E38E3E38E3EE33

Not aligned to any party or politician, vote could go to anyone, I'd like my vote to benefit the South East.
The lack of any action by FG in the SE over the years (and looking in the future) cannot be ignored.
The actions of FF in the last couple of days have shown what a sham their 2 are.
Voting for the benefit of the SE seems like pissing into the Suir would be more advantageous. I understand why some people don't bother.

debok

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Watch them get the majority of votes across the country

Of course they will. Bah bah bah bah bah

jmcc

It would be funny if SF got more seats than FG.

Regards...jmcc

friendlyfun

Say someone wanted give Eddie number one? Who would be a good second preference?

Max Powers

friendlyfun wrote: »

Say someone wanted give Eddie number one? Who would be a good second preference?

That's a tough one, he would probably be my number one, probably John cummins no 2 for me. Combination of ff, sf, green after that probably.

curmudgeonly

SF may regret not putting up another candidate as it seems D Cullinane is going to storm home, so a lot of his number 2's are essentially number 1's for some other candidate, who is the question?
Labour?

hardybuck

curmudgeonly wrote: »

SF may regret not putting up another candidate as it seems D Cullinane is going to storm home, so a lot of his number 2's are essentially number 1's for some other candidate, who is the question?
Labour?

I think Cullinane was the first SF TD elected in Waterford since 1927 when he was elected in 2016.

They have gotten their fingers burnt in other constituencies running too many candidates, and they aren't transfer friendly, so one candidate was probably the best call.

friendlyfun

Eddie is wasted in FF. They'll destroy this country again. They've done it before and they'll do it again.

DLS_75

Aside from the fact that they would be afraid of splitting the vote - they simply don’t have another candidate in Waterford. None of their councillors are what you could describe as “intelligent” - ever see the spelling and grammar of their Facebook posts?

Wanderer78

DLS_75 wrote: »

Aside from the fact that they would be afraid of splitting the vote - they simply don’t have another candidate in Waterford. None of their councillors are what you could describe as “intelligent” - ever see the spelling and grammar of their Facebook posts?

would they by any chance have a learning difficulty such as dyslexia?

Gael23

DLS_75 wrote: »

Aside from the fact that they would be afraid of splitting the vote - they simply don’t have another candidate in Waterford. None of their councillors are what you could describe as “intelligent” - ever see the spelling and grammar of their Facebook posts?

What about John Hearne or someone?

Kamiooka

Gael23 wrote: »

What about John Hearne or someone?

John Hearne

He's the guy who wanted the Irish airforce to bomb Israel, He's on his own crazy planety!


Yer man McGuinness in Dungarvan might be credible for SF next time out.

Quigs Snr

Kamiooka wrote: »

John Hearne

He's the guy who wanted the Irish airforce to bomb Israel, He's on his own crazy planet.

Thats hilarious ! Not least because the irish air force does not have any bombers. Or viable offense capability for that matter... they would have to commandeer Ryan Air jets and crash them into any targets. If he wants bombs a few of his "party colleagues" would probably be able to hook him up though.

Its a shame our best parlimenarian is a shinner all the same.

mooseknunkle

It's a shame that people refer to Sinn Fein members as "shinners" and "provos" ,how about just calling them politicians or election candidates like the rest of them?

Dunmoreroader

Two 24/7 cardiac care candidates: Matt Shanahan and Bernadette Philips - what's that all about?
This whole falling out between 'SEPAG' and 'HEFSE' reminds me of The Peoples Front of Judea and The Judean People's Front - "Splitters!"
Splitters indeed as I think they will be doing well to get 1 elected, most likely Shanahan, and this just splits the hospital protest vote.

azimuth17

Shanahan at least is well versed in the nuances of the cardiac protest scene, has organised the Health Equality for the South East campaign and was elected on that basis to council. Ms Phillips has zero profile on anything in Waterford unless someone here knows something to the contrary? Why would anyone nominate her? Questionable motives by the group that nominated her, a virtual unknown? A stalking horse perhaps?

noby

Kamiooka wrote: »

Yer man McGuinness in Dungarvan might be credible for SF next time out.

Yeah, I know he's only a first time councillor, but I wonder is he being lined up as a future SF candidate for the west of the county, along with Cullinane in the east/city?