Property Market 2020

J_1980

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the virus is officially here, check out RTS News

This might accelerate a global earnings recession. Thought this will happen in 21/22. Maybe it starts now.
Good, hopefully this finishes off the ridiculous nanny welfare state

christy G

If you are lucky enough to be able to live at home with parents and save for a mortgage thats the best thing to do or if you have land to build on off a family member even better ,best way to go. buying houses in dublin or outside is just getting to expensive so best to build your own home if lucky enough to have the land .

fliball123

christy G wrote: »

If you are lucky enough to be able to live at home with parents and save for a mortgage thats the best thing to do or if you have land to build on off a family member even better ,best way to go. buying houses in dublin or outside is just getting to expensive so best to build your own home if lucky enough to have the land .

Its also very expensive to build one off houses , builders will be able to buy in bulk and get reduction in prices for materials and very little man hours wasted as there is always work to do on a site. You build a one off and any delay costs

The Student

Zenify wrote: »

Landlords want their asset price to increase. Estate agents work off a percentage.

The price of the asset is only relevant when selling, also what you plan on using the funds for after you have sold.

With the static sales market estate agents are making significant income from providing both a letting and managing service to small/one off/accidental landlords.

This is a regular ongoing income stream unlikely to reduce anytime soon. Why would an estate agent want 1% of a sales price when they could get multiples of this for just fielding a few calls and organise a tradesman to manage a property.

christy G

fliball123 wrote: »

Its also very expensive to build one off houses , builders will be able to buy in bulk and get reduction in prices for materials and very little man hours wasted as there is always work to do on a site. You build a one off and any delay costs

True just have to prepare for that , still works out cheaper then buying a house that is the exact same as everyone else around you with no garden and to close together.

SozBbz

christy G wrote: »

True just have to prepare for that , still works out cheaper then buying a house that is the exact same as everyone else around you with no garden and to close together.

Planners need to clamp down on one off housing like this.

Eric Cartman

SozBbz wrote: »

Planners need to clamp down on one off housing like this.

why though.

Most of it is along roads that are paved anyway , they pay for their own electricity connection , water and septic are looked after by themselves or mains connection paid for by themselves. The vast majority of people do not expect busses or footpaths or anything else that urban dwellers usually blame those people of wanting. Whats wrong with living out away from an estate and living in a house you like looking at thats not generic.

OEP

Eric Cartman wrote: »

why though.

Most of it is along roads that are paved anyway , they pay for their own electricity connection , water and septic are looked after by themselves or mains connection paid for by themselves. The vast majority of people do not expect busses or footpaths or anything else that urban dwellers usually blame those people of wanting. Whats wrong with living out away from an estate and living in a house you like looking at thats not generic.

As long as its connected to a settlement, otherwise it just ruins our countryside. Like it already is with the horrible bungalows

Eric Cartman

OEP wrote: »

As long as its connected to a settlement, otherwise it just ruins our countryside. Like it already is with the horrible bungalows

They could be a lovely collection of contemporary designs and 2 storey houses but the stupidly restrictive design guides and planners tastes constantly ruin that plan

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/first-time-buyers-need-incomes-of-100-000-to-buy-new-homes-in-dublin-1.4190725?mode=amp

"First-time buyers need to be earning nearly €100,000 a year to secure a mortgage for a new home in Dublin, a report by KBC Bank has indicated.

The study found that the price of new homes purchased by first-time buyers has “virtually doubled” from about €200,000 to €380,000 since 2012. This has eroded affordability for first-time buyers, it said."

The article is essentially saying that the house price increases since 2012 have made purchasing generally unaffordable for FTBs. It's interesting as people point to Brexit and the Coronavirus as potential reasons for prices starting to correct but not realising that (1) prices have raced ahead of salaries the past 8 years beyond affordability levels and (2) supply has only started to get going in the last couple of years. Both of which mean that prices are due a correction. Credit magnifies the impacts of a crash but there wouldn't be the same leverage in property as before so a correction would not equate to a crash.

Graham

Hmmmm,

can't help but think the conclusion is slightly skewed.

Another observation from historical house prices is house prices are around 20% lower than they were in 2007.

OEP

Eric Cartman wrote: »

They could be a lovely collection of contemporary designs and 2 storey houses but the stupidly restrictive design guides and planners tastes constantly ruin that plan

They won't look lovely if they're on their own planted in the middle of the countryside. I'd prefer not to see any houses there

Brussels Sprout

Graham wrote: »

Another observation from historical house prices is house prices are around 20% lower than they were in 2007.

Not picking on you, since RTE constantly do it, but I absolutely hate this take.

By framing it this way it’s like the prices at the height of the credit-fuelled, Celtic Tiger-era bubble are either:

1. some kind of aspirational target, or,
2. a contrast to show how the prices are still great value now

Graham

It's almost as if I did it deliberately to highlight the absurdity of taking either the very lowest point or the very highest point and suggesting either is the benchmark by which "correct prices" should be ascertained.

JamesMason

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Not picking on you, since RTE constantly do it, but I absolutely hate this take.

By framing it this way it’s like the prices at the height of the credit-fuelled, Celtic Tiger-era bubble are either:

1. some kind of aspirational target, or,
2. a contrast to show how the prices are still great value now

A quick look at the intro of Richard Curran's Futureshock Ireland doc pre-crash, will illuminate uncanny similarities to today's absurdity.

Assetbacked

Graham wrote: »

It's almost as if I did it deliberately to highlight the absurdity of taking either the very lowest point or the very highest point and suggesting either is the benchmark by which "correct prices" should be ascertained.

That is taking prices in isolation but my point was about salaries not racing up with property prices and therefore FTBs are being locked out of the market at current levels. As such, without additional leverage possibilities or a big increase in salaries, they are likely to corrected to be in line with salaries.

Being 20% lower than 2007 prices yet only being able to borrow 3.5 times of your salary doesn't bode well for current prices being sustained.

Ultimately, unless one is speculating, buy if you really want to and sell if you want to. Purchasing or selling your own home should not be based on backward-looking events to predict future movements or on the hypothetical impacts of real or expected events. If I was considering selling and I felt I have a profit or a price at which my next moves are adequately funded, I would go for it.

Graham

You appear to be suggesting prices will drop just because they are unaffordable to one segment of the market. I think you're making the wrong argument.

Outside of other external influence, current prices will be sustained as long as supply is less than or equal to demand. The fact that some people are "locked out" won't change that. Demand dropping or supply increasing will change that.

You'd make a stronger argument for price drops if you suggested demand at current market prices is almost satisfied. If/when this happens I would expect the mix of property types under construction to change and prices with them.

Naturally, other external factors may put downward pressure on prices.

Assetbacked

Graham wrote: »

You appear to be suggesting prices will drop just because they are unaffordable to one segment of the market. I think you're making the wrong argument.

Outside of other external influence, current prices will be sustained as long as supply is less than or equal to demand. The fact that some people are "locked out" won't change that. Demand dropping or supply increasing will change that.

You'd make a stronger argument for price drops if you suggested demand at current market prices is almost satisfied. If/when this happens I would expect the mix of property types under construction to change and prices with them.

Naturally, other external factors may put downward pressure on prices.

I'm suggesting affordability mixed with supply picking up to reduce demand, ignoring other external factors which may impact demand such as the impending global recession.

Graham

Assetbacked wrote: »

I'm suggesting affordability mixed with supply picking up to reduce demand

Let me introduce you to Bob.

Bob is a property developer.

Bob has just been told houses in his new development are unaffordable for some people.

Bob has no problem selling everything he can build at current prices.

Why is Bob is going to reduce the price of his houses?

lcwill

Graham wrote: »

Hmmmm,

can't help but think the conclusion is slightly skewed.

Another observation from historical house prices is house prices are around 20% lower than they were in 2007.

Indeed, taking the bottom of the deepest house price crash ever experienced by a developed country as a reference point might not be the best approach.

fliball123

Graham wrote: »

Let me introduce you to Bob.

Bob is a property developer.

Bob has just been told houses in his new development are unaffordable for some people.

Bob has no problem selling everything he can build at current prices.

Why is Bob is going to reduce the price of his houses?

The other side that people looking for prices to drop is the actual cost of building a house is very high. wages have gone through the roof again for anything building related activity including the sparks and plumbers. Not to mention materials going up as well. Yet people think builders will keep building with out making a profit. The state simply has not got the money or resources to satisfy the need out there. Yet you mention the fundamental principle of supply and demand which is skewed heavily in the demand side. Yet people will look at things like a virus that has yet to have much impact here (might have a big one, no one knows) as a reason for them dropping? If some are to believed we are in the end times.

Graham

lcwill wrote: »

Indeed, taking the bottom of the deepest house price crash ever experienced by a developed country as a reference point might not be the best approach.

Exactly.

It probably makes for a popular new article though, great for clicks.

Eric Cartman

OEP wrote: »

They won't look lovely if they're on their own planted in the middle of the countryside. I'd prefer not to see any houses there

Where are the people who want to live more than 100 meters from a neighbour and despise housing estates supposed to live ?

Mic 1972

As many reported in here, there has been an increase in asking prices for price Jan-feb, link below

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

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Mic 1972 wrote: »

As many reported in here, there has been an increase in asking prices for price Jan-feb, link below

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

Thanks for this.

Where did you source the data?

Mic 1972

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thanks for this.

Where did you source the data?

That was MyHome Asking Prices from The property Pin



https://thepropertypin.com/t/the-pretty-charts-thread/47913/311

Padre_Pio

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Where are the people who want to live more than 100 meters from a neighbour and despise housing estates supposed to live ?

In housing estates.
That's according to the planners. I've heard plenty of stories of people who have land and local needs getting asked "Why don't you just buy a house in an estate?"

You can't beat a garden and a bit of space.

Eric Cartman

Padre_Pio wrote: »

In housing estates.
That's according to the planners. I've heard plenty of stories of people who have land and local needs getting asked "Why don't you just buy a house in an estate?"

You can't beat a garden and a bit of space.

Kids kicking a football at your gaf, cars getting damaged and having the gardai called if you have a cranky neighbour and a few mates round after midnight is absolute ideal living conditions... not to mention no space for a workshop or big garage if you like cars, having people look at you just trying to enjoy your back garden.

Padre_Pio

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Kids kicking a football at your gaf, cars getting damaged and having the gardai called if you have a cranky neighbour and a few mates round after midnight is absolute ideal living conditions... not to mention no space for a workshop or big garage if you like cars, having people look at you just trying to enjoy your back garden.

I hate it.

I'm working on my car at the moment in my "front drive" (6 metres between my front door and the foothpath) it's miserable. Plus the worrying will the neighbours complain when I'm using power tools past 9pm.

OEP

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Where are the people who want to live more than 100 meters from a neighbour and despise housing estates supposed to live ?

I don't know where, I don't know any countries that allow this? Unless you own a farm, and then you still have to build beside the farm buildings / original farm house. You can get a plot of land next to an existing house, doesn't have to be an estate and you can have your own garden.

Why should our countryside be ruined by your house?