Property Market 2020

riclad

the problem now is we have a limited no of builders in ireland ,they are busy building office.s .hotel,s , apartments .
If the government tried to build 10k social housing unit,s in 1 year it would likely result in an increase in builders wages ,
Making new house,s more expensive to buy for working people .
We do not yet know the effects of brexit yet, it will definitely increase the cost of exporting good,s to britain ,brexit will have a negative effect on the eu,
the eu cannot get more money from the uk,
apart from increasing tax,s on uk products and services .

L1011

fliball123 wrote: »

So if there is no vaccine then no cure ala HIV. They already have a timetable of september or sooner for a antidote to the virus and with the increase in technology and DNA research I reckon this will be sooner. Using a computer we have already seen the first newly created antibiotic in years.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/20/antibiotic-that-kills-drug-resistant-bacteria-discovered-through-ai

If I were a betting man I reckon we will have something before the summer if it does gets a lot worse

There are diseases with no vaccines but curative antivirals. Hepatitis C for instance.

HIV also has a very effective prophylactic drug despite there being neither a curative nor a vaccine.

ZX7R

riclad wrote: »

the problem now is we have a limited no of builders in ireland ,they are busy building office.s .hotel,s , apartments .
If the government tried to build 10k social housing unit,s in 1 year it would likely result in an increase in builders wages ,
Making new house,s more expensive to buy for working people .
We do not yet know the effects of brexit yet, it will definitely increase the cost of exporting good,s to britain ,brexit will have a negative effect on the eu,
the eu cannot get more money from the uk,
apart from increasing tax,s on uk products and services .

plus you will probably see the government pumping money in to construction to boost the economy if needed due to the coronavirus ,worst case scenario.

pearcider

fliball123 wrote: »

Your stating that people could lose their job and ignoring the fact that we are full employment (techncally) and that we import people do work in certain areas. So if you lose your job there is plenty of work there also we offer a great range of courses and re-skilling on the dole

If the US economy goes down, we go down. All the construction you’ve seen the past few years in Dublin has been financed by cheap American capital which can disappear overnight. You might want to check the S&P500 the past week. Largest weekly point drop in history. All those construction jobs are going away.

pearcider

ZX7R wrote: »

plus you will probably see the government pumping money in to construction to boost the economy if needed due to the coronavirus ,worst case scenario.

They’ve already done that. In 2008. Now interest rates are already at zero and US debt and deficit is massive. So what are they doing to do?

ZX7R

pearcider wrote: »

They’ve already done that. In 2008. Now interest rates are already at zero and US debt and deficit is massive. So what are they doing to do?

2008 They pumped money into the banks,
banks are in a better precision now to
surive a market drop.
The government will pump money into our economy to bost it, they have the funds .
the quickest way to do this is to create a building boom

pearcider

ZX7R wrote: »

2008 They pumped money into the banks,
banks are in a better precision now to
surive a market drop.
The government will pump money into our economy to bost it, they have the funds .
the quickest way to do this is to create a building boom

If banks are so healthy then why are their share prices in the gutter? Why did HSBC cut 35,000 staff? Why did the repo market explode in September 2019 which has forced the Fed to pump 7 trillion dollars into them since then? Sounds likes wishful thinking to me. The banks are goosed. As Bernie Madoff correctly said “ the whole government is a Ponzi scheme”.

smurgen

Can't wait to swoop in with healthy cash offers ðŸ˜

pearcider

According to the NY Fed’s recession probability indicator, bond yields at all times lows together with an inverted yield curve assure recession. The great 12 year expansion funded by money printing and extraordinary debt accumulation is over. Be assured Ireland will be affected dramatically.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf

So if you’re thinking of buying a house in the near future please don’t listen to the deluded landlords and estate agents in here. We are in for the greatest recession in a century. Let that sink in.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/plunging-rates-in-the-us-are-rewriting-the-history-books.html

Zenify

Where are we in the chart? Before Coronavirus I think we were at anxiety, now I think its somewhere between denial and fear.

The Student

Seriously lads you would swear the world was going to end.

There maybe a slow down for a short time, will there be a full blown recession in the property market, unlikely people need places to live, brexit will see more workers to Ireland. Supply is significantly behind demand, if a recession does happen credit dries up construction dries up so unless you are sitting on a cash pile to purchase a property you will be impacted.

If you need to buy and have the funds to do so then buy, if its somewhere you will spend the next 10 or 20 yrs then go for it.

This time next yr there will be something else in the news threatening to collapse the world.

Zenify

The Student wrote: »

Seriously lads you would swear the world was going to end.

if a recession does happen credit dries up construction dries up so unless you are sitting on a cash pile to purchase a property you will be impacted.

If you need to buy and have the funds to do so then buy, if its somewhere you will spend the next 10 or 20 yrs then go for it.
.

Why do you assume anyone who believes there will be a crash is looking to buy?

The Student

Zenify wrote: »

Why do you assume anyone who believes there will be a crash is looking to buy?

I am not assuming anything. If you read my post you will see I said if people see what they want can afford it and it will meet requirements for 10 or 20 yes then work away.

WheHow did you arrive at your interpretation of my post?

Assetbacked

pearcider wrote: »

According to the NY Fed’s recession probability indicator, bond yields at all times lows together with an inverted yield curve assure recession. The great 12 year expansion funded by money printing and extraordinary debt accumulation is over. Be assured Ireland will be affected dramatically.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf

So if you’re thinking of buying a house in the near future please don’t listen to the deluded landlords and estate agents in here. We are in for the greatest recession in a century. Let that sink in.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/plunging-rates-in-the-us-are-rewriting-the-history-books.html

Agree with this. Running economies in massive debt is unsustainable. It is important to remember that debt is something which must be repayed, no matter the borrower. Just because a huge economic powerhouse like the US runs its economy on massive, staggering levels of debt, does not mean it is a success. This is reflected in the growth of the asset management industry since 2008, it has exploded and is thriving on cheap money, but it is in bubble territory. In my industry, asset management, there has been a lot more noise at the level of EU regulators about the concerns had as to how big the asset management bubble has grown with various risk papers being published and increased regulatory focus on the industry. I feel they have already missed the horse as they try to close the gate.

To be fair, the Ireland that is going to suffer is largely the activities of multinationals which we already know is artificially inflating our GDP (just look at ESRI papers constantly warning against relying on the corporate tax income and to focus on reducing expenditure). To be clear, the economy has improved but is not stable as a result of the growth the last few years. Instead, recent years of improvement are the tail end of the fallout from the last crash and the beginning of rebuilding. We in Ireland are actually more similar to the US then the big EU countries' economies so a problem there is a problem here.

Job losses would come from multinationals but this won't result in a mass influx of workers onto the dole list, most multinational employees are foreign nationals who migrated in the past few years and are only renting. The knock on would be to those from whom they are renting and to those from whom their companies let office space.

In terms of residential property, there is so much demand with a lot of would be first time buyers sitting on decent savings but just not having a lot of options as we know that new builds are generally not available to first time buyers. Even with large hits to multinationals and the corporate tax take, the workers who lose their jobs will just go home and there is scope for the government to stimulate the property market by enabling a bit more leverage, it would not be ideal but it may assist with offsetting some of the losses to the economy. Build to lets could be sold to FTBs in these circumstances.

In short, there is an asset management bubble which is reflected in the growth of the stock markets in the US, inflated by low interest rates and printing money as a result of the US refusing to address the problems that caused the 2008 crash. Property prices in Ireland for those looking to buy and sell should remain fairly stable but the loss to the economy will be to big tech multinationals and the contribution they make (i.e. Corporate tax, employer and employee PRSI, rent to landlords, indirect spend (bars, cafes etc based near the offices and apartments)).

Zenify

The Student wrote: »

How did you arrive at your interpretation of my post?

It's just that there is obviously a lot of people on here who are trying to push an agenda. Estate agents and landlords trying to keep the market afloat as previously mentioned by another poster. Many of these agenda posters last year were claiming that we would continue to see double digit price increases and that prices wont fall for 10 years, now we are seeing price drops. The mantra from this crowd is now buy a house as rent will be higher and that there is no point arguing if it will go up or down. It seems like they are clutching straws.

I assumed you were part of this group and that is why i made that point.

Agenda pushing is on both sides though, there are people here hoping to buy and trying to scare people off the market. Hope is the only chance of some people to purchase their own home.

I have been saying for years on this forum that nobody knows what is going to happen in the future, just look at the current markets and the effects of a new virus. Nobody could have predicted that. There is uncertainty in the near future and telling people that buying now is the best option is not good advice IMO.

Mic 1972

This is a good time to sell, not to buy

The Student

Zenify wrote: »

It's just that there is obviously a lot of people on here who are trying to push an agenda. Estate agents and landlords trying to keep the market afloat as previously mentioned by another poster. Many of these agenda posters last year were claiming that we would continue to see double digit price increases and that prices wont fall for 10 years, now we are seeing price drops. The mantra from this crowd is now buy a house as rent will be higher and that there is no point arguing if it will go up or down. It seems like they are clutching straws.

I assumed you were part of this group and that is why i made that point.

Agenda pushing is on both sides though, there are people here hoping to buy and trying to scare people off the market. Hope is the only chance of some people to purchase their own home.

I have been saying for years on this forum that nobody knows what is going to happen in the future, just look at the current markets and the effects of a new virus. Nobody could have predicted that. There is uncertainty in the near future and telling people that buying now is the best option is not good advice IMO.

Why would a landlord want people to buy. They would end up out of business. Same for estate agents they are making more for letting and managing property.

Zenify

The Student wrote: »

Why would a landlord want people to buy. They would end up out of business. Same for estate agents they are making more for letting and managing property.

Landlords want their asset price to increase. Estate agents work off a percentage.

beggars_bush

Zenify wrote: »

Landlords want their asset price to increase. Estate agents work off a percentage.

Not always
If you were a cash buyer you want a good rent coming in.
Appreciation of asset doesn't matter as much

Zenify

beggars_bush wrote: »

Not always
If you were a cash buyer you want a good rent coming in.
Appreciation of asset doesn't matter as much

Ok let me be more specific about the type of landlord I was talking about: landlords who are planning on selling their properties soon. Like a lot of small scale landlords currently in Ireland.

KilOit

If there is a recession and you are trying to buy good luck getting a mortgage, banks don't really lend when the economy tanks and no one really sells their beautiful turn key home when prices are so low.
Only people that benefit are cash rich buyers buying property to rent

smurgen

KilOit wrote: »

If there is a recession and you are trying to buy good luck getting a mortgage, banks don't really lend when the economy tanks and no one really sells their beautiful turn key home when prices are so low.
Only people that benefit are cash rich buyers buying property to rent

Love the absolute certainty of those who speak in here. Those that can keep a steady income will get a mortgage just fine.

Arthur Daley

Banks are hardly lending a lot as it is. Especially when you consider the inflated prices per unit. A few billion in loans today buys half the housing units it did in 2012.

What the banks have been doing is boosting their liquidity, they are awash with deposits compared to any time in their history. They are just not able to lend what they could, in a properly functioning market, for political reasons unique to Ireland. And that lending will be even tighter with these jitters going around.
The Dow fell 3,000 in a week. But we need some context here, it is probably still up 9,000 since that day Trump beat Clinton and the end was nigh then and all.

AlmightyCushion

Arthur Daley wrote: »

Banks are hardly lending a lot as it is. Especially when you consider the inflated prices per unit. A few billion in loans today buys half the housing units it did in 2012.

This is absolutely not true. Mortgage lending is much higher than 2012.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1024366.shtml

The IBF/PwC Mortgage Market Profile report published Friday, shows that 2,630 new mortgages to the value of €450m were issued during the first quarter of 2012.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-approvals-down-as-buyers-face-competition-1.3816259

A total of 3,037 mortgages were approved in January, of which 1,479 or 48.7 per cent, were for first-time buyers. Mortgage approvals were valued at a combined €672 million – of which first-time buyers accounted for €327 million.

In January of 2019, there were 3037 mortgages with a value of €672m. In the first quarter of 2012, there was 2630 mortgages with a value of €450m. So, in one month of 2019 there was nearly 20% more mortgages approved and the total mortgage value approved was nearly 50% higher than an entire quarter of 2012.

https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/statistics/house-prices-loans-and-profile-borrowers/mortgage-market-statistics

The figures in that gov.ie link only show up to 2016 but here they are:

2012 - Approvals : 17,769 Value: 3.225b
2016 - Approvals : 35,037 Value: 7.284b

So, the number and values of mortgages in 2016 was more than double what it was in 2012.

There is far more lending now that in 2012.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

Love the absolute certainty of those who speak in here. Those that can keep a steady income will get a mortgage just fine.

The irony is literally dripping.

smurgen

awec wrote: »

The irony is literally dripping.

You were the one one talking of Ireland's economy being bullet proof three months back.are you still that certain?

awec

smurgen wrote: »

You were the one one talking of Ireland's economy being bullet proof three months back.are you still that certain?

No I wasn’t. I was the one dismissing your pontification on the many occasions when you have smugly insisted to all on here that a complete collapse was imminent and that you were going to save a fortune.

But as I’ve said, come back to us when you actually buy something. Maybe you’re right, or maybe you’re wrong. Again.

Ush1

fliball123 wrote: »

Your stating that people could lose their job and ignoring the fact that we are full employment (techncally) and that we import people do work in certain areas. So if you lose your job there is plenty of work there also we offer a great range of courses and re-skilling on the dole

I honestly don't understand the point you're making, are you denying the fact unemployment shot up during the last recession?

Yes there's jobs now, so if you need a house and can get one, you should.

Arthur Daley

Where did I say that lending is lower than 2012. Geez this forum

Mic 1972

the virus is officially here, check out RTS News