Property Market 2020

OwlsZat

Billythekid19 wrote: »

100 % agree. I moved home last year to my parents house and saved 18,000 euro in one year by not forking out for rent. This 18k has allowed me to save enough for a deposit and so I fully intend to purchase a home this year, regardless of market conditions. It is not an investment but rather a place to live a life and potentially grow a family over the next 30 years

Choose wisely! 30 years is a long time.

pearcider

beauf wrote: »

Every year a crash is predicted and people are told to wait. At some point that will be true. But not every year.

Buying a house isnt a purely financial decision. Most people won't buy at the peak or the bottom of the market. We aren't property speculators. If you are buying a house to live in for 20~30yrs there are many other considerations.

Wow there’s a lot of property bulls in here. My point is the peak was last year and we will fall big time this year. Why pay more? Why not borrow 50% instead of 80%. Why not get a 4 bed in an area you want rather than a 3 bed out in commuterville. The Irish property market has been overinflated by cheap money and this era is now at an end. Why not wait a year and see how this crash plays out. Im trying to actually help potential buyers. The rest of you are trying to have them in huge debt to the banks going into a economic depression. I hope people don’t fall for it.

pearcider

awec wrote: »

What do you propose that families who need somewhere to live do instead?

Buy a tent? Declare themselves homeless?

What do you think is worse? Being genuinely homeless this time next year because you decided to keep waiting and it turns out that the arse does fall out of it and there's nothing for you to buy because people can't afford to sell their homes and the developers have all gone bust, or to buy now and find out next year you have overpaid? I know which I'd choose.

In almost all cases it's better to have a home than not.

Much better to wait. Are you seriously suggesting people who are currently homeless are potential FTBs? No they may be inadequate accommodation or renting but they should wait one year. 30 years is a lifetime. Rents will fall with property prices too.

Ush1

pearcider wrote: »

Wow there’s a lot of property bulls in here. My point is the peak was last year and we will fall big time this year. Why pay more? Why not borrow 50% instead of 80%. Why not get a 4 bed in an area you want rather than a 3 bed out in commuterville. The Irish property market has been overinflated by cheap money and this era is now at an end. Why not wait a year and see how this crash plays out. Im trying to actually help potential buyers. The rest of you are trying to have them in huge debt to the banks going into a economic depression. I hope people don’t fall for it.

You make the mistake of thinking property prices will fall whilst other economic conditions will remain the same such as pay levels, inflation, etc...

You may not have the means or opportunity to borrow at all when the market drops waiting to get a 4 bed.

Billythekid19

pearcider wrote: »

Much better to wait. Are you seriously suggesting people who are currently homeless are potential FTBs? No they may be inadequate accommodation or renting but they should wait one year. 30 years is a lifetime. Rents will fall with property prices too.

I dont see how you can predict a fall in prices, based on the outbreak of a flu. There is a chronic under supply of houses. Theres a huge shortage of builders, trades people ect. We dont have the finances to build public houses so there wont be an improvement in supply in the short term. Your assumption of a drop in rent/prices is without any foundation.

pearcider

Ush1 wrote: »

You make the mistake of thinking property prices will fall whilst other economic conditions will remain the same such as pay levels, inflation, etc...

You may not have the means or opportunity to borrow at all when the market drops waiting to get a 4 bed.

This is a silly argument. If you lose your job you’re better off without a mortgage. That’s a no brainer. The stress alone of debt in a recession kills people.

awec

pearcider wrote: »

Much better to wait. Are you seriously suggesting people who are currently homeless are potential FTBs? No they may be inadequate accommodation or renting but they should wait one year. 30 years is a lifetime. Rents will fall with property prices too.

Wait and do what in the mean time?

People need places to live!

Where you are getting confused is the difference between buying a home and buying an investment. Why would I care if I could buy my house for 50 grand cheaper next year?

pearcider

Billythekid19 wrote: »

I dont see how you can predict a fall in prices, based on the outbreak of a flu. There is a chronic under supply of houses. Theres a huge shortage of builders, trades people ect. We dont have the finances to build public houses so there wont be an improvement in supply in the short term. Your assumption of a drop in rent/prices is without any foundation.

Nothing to do with the virus although that is the catalyst for the recession. It’s to do with central banking and cheap money overinflating property in the first place. But if COV19 hits next winter, the amount of executor sales will be frightening.

Ush1

pearcider wrote: »

This is a silly argument. If you lose your job you’re better off without a mortgage. That’s a no brainer. The stress alone of debt in a recession kills people.

But you may not lose your job?

The silly argument is not buying a house when you need one and have the means to get one.

thomasdylan

pearcider wrote: »

Wow there’s a lot of property bulls in here. My point is the peak was last year and we will fall big time this year. Why pay more? Why not borrow 50% instead of 80%. Why not get a 4 bed in an area you want rather than a 3 bed out in commuterville. The Irish property market has been overinflated by cheap money and this era is now at an end. Why not wait a year and see how this crash plays out. Im trying to actually help potential buyers. The rest of you are trying to have them in huge debt to the banks going into a economic depression. I hope people don’t fall for it.

How much do you think house prices will drop?

SozBbz

pearcider wrote: »

This is a silly argument. If you lose your job you’re better off without a mortgage. That’s a no brainer. The stress alone of debt in a recession kills people.

What about losing your job and not being able to pay rent? Not everyone has mam and dads house to fall back on. If you're a single man for example, you're not going to get a council property for years if ever.

I'd say homelessness is more stressful than mortgage arrears, especially in a country thats practically allergic to repossessions.

awec

If you lose your job, you are far more likely to end up homeless if you are a renter vs a home owner.

You will end up in negative equity, you will end up in mortgage arrears, but you will still have a place to call home.

Of course, the risk here is entirely different for Jim the single guy who currently lives in his folks spare bedroom compared to Bill and Susan and their three kids. Jim can pontificate about waiting all he wants and how he's going to be buying his house for a fraction of what others paid, but the impact of potentially not having a home is of much greater consequence to people with families and the equation is entirely different.

woodchuck

Supply is bad enough at the moment, imagine how bad it'll be if we do have another crash.

Personally I'm not willing to wait another year in the hope of getting something a little cheaper. I want a home to live in, not a property to invest in.

pearcider

awec wrote: »

Wait and do what in the mean time?

Save your cash and don’t be a slave to the banks. Why catch a falling knife?

woodchuck

pearcider wrote: »

Save your cash and don’t be a slave to the banks. Why catch a falling knife?

Waste it on rent you mean.

pearcider

awec wrote: »

If you lose your job, you are far more likely to end up homeless if you are a renter vs a home owner.

You will end up in negative equity, you will end up in mortgage arrears, but you will still have a place to call home.

Of course, the risk here is entirely different for Jim the single guy who currently lives in his folks spare bedroom compared to Bill and Susan and their three kids. Jim can pontificate about waiting all he wants and how he's going to be buying his house for a fraction of what others paid, but the impact of potentially not having a home is of much greater consequence to people with families and the equation is entirely different.

What about moving to get another job. You can’t do that if you have a big mortgage under water. Your strategy is to ride out the recession on the dole and ignoring your mortgage. That’s nuts.

awec

pearcider wrote: »

Save your cash and don’t be a slave to the banks. Why catch a falling knife?

Are you being deliberately obtuse now, or do you genuinely just not get the difference between buying an investment and buying your home?

Save your cash, don't be a slave to the banks (lol) and MAYBE you'll save some money next year, or MAYBE you could end up in an even worse position than you are right now.

For someone with a family the single biggest concern is ending up with no home. Being stuck renting or worse! When the chance comes to buy a home, of course these people are going to take it. They aren't buying the place to make money. They don't care what it's worth next year. This is what you're failing to grasp at the moment.

pearcider

awec wrote: »

Are you being deliberately obtuse now, or do you genuinely just not get the difference between buying an investment and buying your home?

Save your cash, don't be a slave to the banks (lol) and MAYBE you'll save some money next year, or MAYBE you could end up in an even worse position than you are right now.

For someone with a family the single biggest concern is ending up with no home. Being stuck renting or worse! When the chance comes to buy a home, of course these people are going to take it. They aren't buying the place to make money. They don't care what it's worth next year. This is what you're failing to grasp at the moment.

You’re failing to grasp that house prices have peaked and if you are thinking of buying this year, you are going to be buying into a falling market. So wait is my advice.

pearcider

woodchuck wrote: »

Waste it on rent you mean.

Better to pay a years rent than to add 10 years to your mortgage.

awec

pearcider wrote: »

What about moving to get another job. You can’t do that if you have a big mortgage under water. Your strategy is to ride out the recession on the dole and ignoring your mortgage. That’s nuts.

Moving to get another job? You really just don't get it at all, do you?

People with families cannot just up and move around on a whim like young adults do. They have kids in schools, they have family supports, they have their communities.

But lets set that aside and speak hypothetically, and imagine that this time next year Bill and Susan are thinking of moving from Dublin to Limerick with the three kids (apparently in this world there are jobs in Limerick but not in Dublin). What do you think they are going to buy?

Dav010

pearcider wrote: »

Save your cash and don’t be a slave to the banks. Why catch a falling knife?

A wait and see stance is certainly advisable if you think house prices are going to fall, but it is hard to understand where your confidence comes from. The previous crash was built on credit, people are a lot more careful about planning now and credit is not nearly as easy to obtain. Do you see such a cataclysmic event that tens, hundreds of thousands will lose jobs because of corona virus? I’d be more confident a vaccine will become available. Yes the stock market took a hit, obviously the virus is effecting production/export of goods from China, but they are one of the few countries in the world that can mobilise to ramp up production when this event passes.

If you say something is going to happen every day, one day you might be right, you were just wrong every other day.

awec

pearcider wrote: »

Better to pay a years rent than to add 10 years to your mortgage.

Not true.

There are many people who would have bought at the absolute peak in 2007 who are actually financially better off than those who have been renting in the mean time. They will have forked out less money.

pearcider

awec wrote: »

Moving to get another job? You really just don't get it at all, do you?

People with families cannot just up and move around on a whim like young adults do. They have kids in schools, they have family supports, they have their communities.

But lets set that aside and speak hypothetically, and imagine that this time next year Bill and Susan are thinking of moving from Dublin to Limerick with the three kids (apparently in this world there are jobs in Limerick but not in Dublin). What do you think they are going to buy?

I’m only referring to people who were thinking of buying this year and who are not currently homeless. Wait is my advice.

Billythekid19

pearcider wrote: »

I’m only referring to people who were thinking of buying this year and who are not currently homeless. Wait is my advice.

I have a colleague who bought a new build last february. At present houses are selling for 15k more in the 3rd phase of this development. How exactly are prices dropping? If they had taken your advice and not bought last year they would be paying 15k more for the same house and another 15 to 20 k down in rent spent to landlords...

woodchuck

pearcider wrote: »

Better to pay a years rent than to add 10 years to your mortgage.

Better to have an overpriced house where I can afford the mortgage repayments and start a family, than continue paying extortionate rent on a small apartment indefinitely because the supply of houses has completely dried up.

You seem to be imaging a world where the market will be full of affordable houses - hardly anybody wants to sell during a recession.

I want to start a family and I'm not going to put that off in order to play the property market game. If I start a family while I'm still renting (aside from the obvious space and security issues) the banks will be willing to loan us much less money when it comes time to buy a house.

awec

pearcider wrote: »

I’m only referring to people who were thinking of buying this year and who are not currently homeless. Wait is my advice.

It's not only about being homeless right now. People can also be living in unsuitable accommodation too.

Do you think a family of 3 wants to risk being stuck in a 2 bed apartment for the forseeable future for example, if they wait and the risk doesn't pay off?

People who should wait, IMO, are people who are moving just cause they fancy a change.

odyssey06

awec wrote: »

Not true.

There are many people who would have bought at the absolute peak in 2007 who are actually financially better off than those who have been renting in the mean time. They will have forked out less money.

Yep, but optimally if you'd waited until 2010 to buy you'd be even better off than those other cohorts.

odyssey06

awec wrote: »

It's not only about being homeless right now. People can also be living in unsuitable accommodation too.
Do you think a family of 3 wants to risk being stuck in a 2 bed apartment for the forseeable future for example, if they wait and the risk doesn't pay off?
People who should wait, IMO, are people who are moving just cause they fancy a change.

Would it be a good idea to buy a 2 bed apartment now, if that was all you could afford, when your needs are better suited to a 3 bed house though?
It makes sense for many if not most but for some - no.

Dav010

odyssey06 wrote: »

Yep, but optimally if you'd waited until 2010 to buy you'd be even better off than those other cohorts.

Yip, but you would have had difficulty getting a mortgage and would have been less inclined to buy because of fears for your job. Cash buyers thrive during recessions, those who rely on credit find it just as difficult during a recession as they do during a boom.

pearcider

Dav010 wrote: »

Yip, but you would have had difficulty getting a mortgage and would have been less inclined to buy because of fears for your job. Cash buyers thrive during recessions, those who rely on credit find it just as difficult during a recession as they do during a boom.

So it’s always a good time to buy. Sherry Fitz is that you?