Property Market 2020

pearcider

woodchuck wrote: »

Better to have an overpriced house where I can afford the mortgage repayments and start a family, than continue paying extortionate rent on a small apartment indefinitely because the supply of houses has completely dried up.

You seem to be imaging a world where the market will be full of affordable houses - hardly anybody wants to sell during a recession.

I want to start a family and I'm not going to put that off in order to play the property market game. If I start a family while I'm still renting (aside from the obvious space and security issues) the banks will be willing to loan us much less money when it comes time to buy a house.

Ok. Hope it works out for you. I’m only trying to offer the bearish view.

Dav010

pearcider wrote: »

So it’s always a good time to buy. Sherry Fitz is that you?

Or never, depending on your viewpoint.

pearcider

Dav010 wrote: »

Or never, depending on your viewpoint.

It’s a good time to buy when the banks aren’t running mortgage ads every 2 mins.

pearcider

pearcider wrote: »

I’m only referring to people who were thinking of buying this year and who are not currently homeless. Wait is my advice.

its not really one fits all though.
I am looking to buy, my mortgage repayments will be 50 euro more than my rent. If there is a recession, I won't lose my job.

DelBoy Trotter

bubblypop wrote: »

its not really one fits all though.

Exactly. I'm also looking to buy at the moment. I'm 36, the longer I leave it to buy, the shorter mortgage term I get. The longer I leave it to buy, the longer it will be before myself and my girlfriend can think about having kids and/or getting married. Based on the approval we have now for a mortgage, our repayments will be approximately €150 a month less than our rent (and our rent is about €300 a month under market value). We are looking to buy a house to live in for the foreseeable future, it's going to be a house that we are both happy enough to live in for the rest of our lives (bar maybe adding an extension). It would make no sense for us to wait, just in case we may save money next year or the year after. When you take into account the money we would spend on rent, the shorter mortgage term meaning higher monthly payments, and putting off kids/marriage, there would be no value in us waiting unless the house prices were going to drop by something crazy like 50% in a year!

SozBbz

pearcider wrote: »

So it’s always a good time to buy. Sherry Fitz is that you?

...Chicken Little, is that you?

ZX7R

JamesMason wrote: »

The GLOBAL economy is in free fall with stock markets crashing everywhere. Make no mistake, this will have a huge effect on the Irish economy. Expect job losses and a decrease in demand for housing.

Don't bank on it,
In just 2 weeks China has cleared 70% of it's backlog of ordered exports , 50% of which has all ready been shipped.
They believe they will be back to 100% productivity within 2 weeks.
To be honest I believe them.
You will start to see investors pump there money back into China
Once China is back at 100% markets will stabilize

pearcider

ZX7R wrote: »

Don't bank on it,
In just 2 weeks China has cleared 70% of it's backlog of ordered exports , 50% of which has all ready been shipped.
They believe they will be back to 100% productivity within 2 weeks.
To be honest I believe them.
You will start to see investors pump there money back into China
Once China is back at 100% markets will stabilize

Nice that you believe the CCP propaganda but China isn’t the problem. If this takes hold in the United States and Europe that will be the big problem. Ireland is way more dependent on the West than China.

ZX7R

pearcider wrote: »

Nice that you believe the CCP propaganda but China isn’t the problem. If this takes hold in the United States and Europe that will be the big problem. Ireland is way more dependent on the West than China.

19.2% of America's imports come from China

smurgen

ZX7R wrote: »

Don't bank on it,
In just 2 weeks China has cleared 70% of it's backlog of ordered exports , 50% of which has all ready been shipped.
They believe they will be back to 100% productivity within 2 weeks.
To be honest I believe them.
You will start to see investors pump there money back into China
Once China is back at 100% markets will stabilize

Ya? How do you know that the coronavirus correction is just the trigger for a wider correction of asset prices? Theres alot of momentum trading at the moment. This could get extremely out of hand and we'll soon see how robust Ireland's economy is. At time's like this I'm happy I've a reasonable rent i can walk away from.

https://twitter.com/WhistleIRL/status/1233402843438157824?s=19

ZX7R

smurgen wrote: »

Ya? How do you know that the coronavirus correction is just the trigger for a wider correction of asset prices? Theres alot of momentum trading at the moment. This could get extremely out of hand and we'll soon see how robust Ireland's economy is. At time's like this I'm happy I've a reasonable rent i can walk away from.

https://twitter.com/WhistleIRL/status/1233402843438157824?s=19

That's the joy of trading in shares coronavirous may be a trigger one way.
But as China's economy is the largest manufacturing and exporter in the world once it is back at 100% productivity it can only have a positive impact. And price of crude oil will rise again as China is the second largest consumer.
Prices of assets are slower at reacting,
Biggest cause of house prices drop in the last recession was people lying about the value of house's to avoid high property tax

fliball123

pearcider wrote: »

This coming from someone who is pretending this new virus is like seasonal flu. For your information, US stock market peaked in mid 2007 and bottomed in mid 2009 after a 50% fall. The US stock market has already fallen 10% this week.

It took Irish property 2 more years to find the bottom in 2012. It will happen a lot quicker this time especially when people start passing away in significant numbers next winter. Spanish flu came in 3 waves peaking in the second winter. This is a lot more serious than seasonal flu and the worlds financial system is a lot more fragile than you think.

You’d be mad to buy a house this year. Mad.

Well you keep paying your rent there and see where you are at 68

fliball123

The Student wrote: »

So we need more houses and liquidity dries up and you seem to think more houses will be built when access to finance is removed.

Why would a builder/developer build if there is a risk they won't sell?

Do you think a credit crunch/recession is suddenly going to increase the supply of properties?

This is the problem it is so expensive to build a gaff these days why would they bother

fliball123

pearcider wrote: »

Wow there’s a lot of property bulls in here. My point is the peak was last year and we will fall big time this year. Why pay more? Why not borrow 50% instead of 80%. Why not get a 4 bed in an area you want rather than a 3 bed out in commuterville. The Irish property market has been overinflated by cheap money and this era is now at an end. Why not wait a year and see how this crash plays out. Im trying to actually help potential buyers. The rest of you are trying to have them in huge debt to the banks going into a economic depression. I hope people don’t fall for it.

Your nuts if you think they will drop that much...so you want buyers to wait and wait and wait some people cant...if the banks are going into depression why are they lending more, more mortgages where drawn down in jan and feb this year than last..Hardly going into a depression..

fliball123

pearcider wrote: »

This is a silly argument. If you lose your job you’re better off without a mortgage. That’s a no brainer. The stress alone of debt in a recession kills people.

Thats not true..if you have a mortgage very few banks can repossess in this country its very very hard and people can litigate and prolong and keep staying rent free in the gaff for years..If your renting and you dont pay rent..see how long you get stay in there

fliball123

Ush1 wrote: »

But you may not lose your job?

The silly argument is not buying a house when you need one and have the means to get one.

Last I checked we are at nearly full employment there companies actively looking to import labour due to shortages, keep spinning there

fliball123

pearcider wrote: »

What about moving to get another job. You can’t do that if you have a big mortgage under water. Your strategy is to ride out the recession on the dole and ignoring your mortgage. That’s nuts.

Plenty did it during the last recession, people went with split mortgages, interest only and even what they could afford in some cases. now they still owe the money but they didnt have to pay the high rents that are currently there. They had their own place and a base to start looking for another job

fliball123

pearcider wrote: »

You’re failing to grasp that house prices have peaked and if you are thinking of buying this year, you are going to be buying into a falling market. So wait is my advice.

Your guessing at that not only is the irish property market horrible to predict with in it there are a whole myriad of submarkets..For example the rest of the country lags Dublin by 6 to 8 months so Dublin could be going down and the rest of the country still rising which is currently the case.

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

Last I checked we are at nearly full employment there companies actively looking to import labour due to shortages, keep spinning there

A lot has happened in the last few days, since the outbreak in Italy.
it is a possibility that an outbreak in Europe will effect employment too if the economy is impacted

fliball123

awec wrote: »

Not true.

There are many people who would have bought at the absolute peak in 2007 who are actually financially better off than those who have been renting in the mean time. They will have forked out less money.

the problem with you theory there is that the banks cut nearly all lending from 2008 onwards so unless you were a cash buyer you would of done ok

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

A lot has happened in the last few days, since the outbreak in Italy.
it is a possibility that an outbreak in Europe will effect employment too if the economy is impacted

Already there are 20 vaccines in the works. As I say SARS , Asian flu, spanish flu, HIV, Zika, the plague, the famine, Ebola, Mumps, Rubella, Typhoid, Corona

Have I misses any??

Facts are the world has faced epidemic after epidemic and guess what, employment does not directly correlate to them. You could take a view that there will be a need for more doctors, nurses, medicine, research and development, Mask makers etc.. I cant see Corona doing too much damage to our employment levels

Ush1

fliball123 wrote: »

Last I checked we are at nearly full employment there companies actively looking to import labour due to shortages, keep spinning there

Spinning where?

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

Already there are 20 vaccines in the works. As I say SARS , Asian flu, spanish flu, HIV, Zika, the plague, the famine, Ebola, Mumps, Rubella, Typhoid, Corona

Have I misses any??

Facts are the world has faced epidemic after epidemic and guess what, employment does not directly correlate to them. You could take a view that there will be a need for more doctors, nurses, medicine, research and development, Mask makers etc.. I cant see Corona doing too much damage to our employment levels

Many diseases you listed above still have no vaccine. I would take that into account because differently from them Covid can be passed easily and has a good enough incubation time to allow for spreading

Taylor365

fliball123 wrote: »

If your renting and you dont pay rent..see how long you get stay in there

About 2 years, if some stories are to be believed.


And learn to multi quote, jesus! :pac:

smurgen

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Many diseases you listed above still have no vaccine. I would take that into account because differently from them Covid can be passed easily and has a good enough incubation time to allow for spreading

Exactly.this is quiet different to all others. Cobra meeting in the UK. Harvard scientist warning 40-70% of the planet could be infected this could go on for months. And as regards China this could be their Chernobyl.

Dav010

smurgen wrote: »

Exactly.this is quiet different to all others. Cobra meeting in the UK. Harvard scientist warning 40-70% of the planet could be infected this could go on for months. And as regards China this could be their Chernobyl.

Haven’t we heard this before? CJD/BSE, SARS, Ebola, AIDS, Swine flue etc. Not to make light of it, but not everyone who gets it dies and according to the news today 20 pharmaceutical companies are working on a flu vaccine for it.

Heard a disease specialist from US being interviewed yesterday who said 64k people died in the US last year from the flu.

odyssey06

Dav010 wrote: »

Haven’t we heard this before? CJD/BSE, SARS, Ebola, AIDS, Swine flue etc. Not to make light of it, but not everyone who gets it dies and according to the news today 20 pharmaceutical companies are working on a flu vaccine for it.
Heard a disease specialist from US being interviewed yesterday who said 64k people died in the US last year from the flu.

I don't remember any country ever taking the kind of measures China deployed in Wuhan-Hubei. That's was would spook me 'cos it certainly spooked them.

Dav010

odyssey06 wrote: »

I don't remember any country ever taking the kind of measures China deployed in Wuhan-Hubei. That's was would spook me 'cos it certainly spooked them.

China is one of the very few countries in the world that can quarantine a whole city of millions. And punish those that don’t obey. You could argue the merits of their actions and the morality of it. I suppose this would be a bigger issue if it originated in the US or Africa where the possibility of effectively closing a city would be an unimaginable feat.

fliball123

Ush1 wrote: »

Spinning where?

Your stating that people could lose their job and ignoring the fact that we are full employment (techncally) and that we import people do work in certain areas. So if you lose your job there is plenty of work there also we offer a great range of courses and re-skilling on the dole

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Many diseases you listed above still have no vaccine. I would take that into account because differently from them Covid can be passed easily and has a good enough incubation time to allow for spreading

So if there is no vaccine then no cure ala HIV. They already have a timetable of september or sooner for a antidote to the virus and with the increase in technology and DNA research I reckon this will be sooner. Using a computer we have already seen the first newly created antibiotic in years.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/20/antibiotic-that-kills-drug-resistant-bacteria-discovered-through-ai

If I were a betting man I reckon we will have something before the summer if it does gets a lot worse