Property Market 2020

Assetbacked

OwlsZat wrote: »

And as far as I'm aware the finance for the build to rent boom has come predominantly from America? Huge real estate and investment funds who deal frequency in pensions. It does make me very suspicious why we are extorting our renters for big gains to overseas pension funds.

1) if we have to create a favourable tax climate to line investment fund pockets could we not make it predominantly irish funds?

2) is there a threat against our Government of retaliation of some sort if we dont allow these funds coin money off our renters?

It's actually galling that we could bunch the young generation with the debt burden of the last false economic expansion then on top of that hoar them out to be overseas investment gimps.

The good news is that the risk with Irish property has been outsourced this time around. Therefore, if there is an economic slowdown and the property market gets hit, Irish people will be pretty much immune to the consequences. Kennedy Wilson, Greystar, Oakmount, Lone Star etc are the ones who will be licking their wounds from the decade of sensational returns they have made in the low interest rate and QE environment.

That being said, Irish pension funds may already have/begin to take exposure to the Irish property market and if that were to happen it would be because the US private equity firms realise the game is up and want to offload. Don't let your pension fund take exposure to the Irish commercial property market (see the Aviva fund suspension recently as a sort of canary in the coal mine).

omicron

Assetbacked wrote: »

Dermot Desmond piece in the IT today, shovelling mud onto FF and FG housing policy of the last few decades. An article that will resonate with all renters and I'm sure many homeowners too.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/dermot-desmond-everyone-has-a-right-to-a-home-here-is-how-it-can-be-done-1.4195439?mode=amp
us

This being the same Dermot Desmond who's wife is taking a court case to try prevent 600 apartments being built near their house on Ailesbury road?

Serious hypocrisy there.

beauf

omicron wrote: »

This being the same Dermot Desmond who's wife is taking a court case to try prevent 600 apartments being built near their house on Ailesbury road?

Serious hypocrisy there.

Not really. Since poorly thought out fast tracked development never ends well. Last boom we destroyed the countryside with ugly one of housing literally everywhere. Much of it empty now. Also lots of poorly built apartments and houses crammed together that cause no end of problems afterwards.

omicron

beauf wrote: »

Not really. Since poorly thought out fast tracked development never ends well. Last boom we destroyed the countryside with ugly one of housing literally everywhere. Much of it empty now. Also lots of poorly built apartments and houses crammed together that cause no end of problems afterwards.

You think putting 600 apartments on the former rte lands in Donnybrook, right beside the best QBC in Dublin and less than 3km from the city centre is equivalent to building one off houses in the countryside? It's exactly the type of development that should be happening.

beauf

I like the way you completely miss the point. One off housing is one point. The other point I made was poorly planned apartments and housing everywhere else, especially in the cities.

We've had a crisis for over a decade. There is no need to panic build and just yes to anything regardless of how unsuitable it is. The crisis isn't going away either as we've done nothing to control demand.

It will be high end housing a lot of which is already sitting empty especially in places like the Docklands. Ditto more expensive new build houses and estates. They aren't selling out as people can't afford them.

The critical shortage is social and low end. Be interesting to see how much of that they build on Ailesbury Road.

This is just an excuse to bypass planning and allow developers free reign. It's like the all knee jerk rental measures which made the crisis worse. Think before you leap.

coolshannagh28

Desmond may not be the most selfless individual but he has a phenomenal record of being on the right side of business and property deals and his thoughts on the investment and REIT funds are on the money , our government must curtail their profiteering and reduce our dependency on US capital .

JamesMason

The Irish Times today has a story on how the Irish international student market is in trouble. What happens to all those new student accommodation blocks that charge obscene rent?

OwlsZat

Assetbacked wrote: »

The good news is that the risk with Irish property has been outsourced this time around. Therefore, if there is an economic slowdown and the property market gets hit, Irish people will be pretty much immune to the consequences. Kennedy Wilson, Greystar, Oakmount, Lone Star etc are the ones who will be licking their wounds from the decade of sensational returns they have made in the low interest rate and QE environment.

If you believe this then you are saying the Governments plan was to create another housing bubble but not be liable. Surely, this can't be true. Let's create another false wealth cycle? What are the advantages of this over a slow steady climb?

coolshannagh28

OwlsZat wrote: »

If you believe this then you are saying the Governments plan was to create another housing bubble but not be liable. Surely, this can't be true. Let's create another false wealth cycle? What are the advantages of this over a slow steady climb?

In 2011 the Govt was desperate for investment , Michael Noonan went on a tour of America to raise funds and offered tax incentives as bait , he hooked Wilbur Ross who bailed into BOI and Ross was followed by Vulture funds initially but eventually by Hedge Funds , REITs etc in a wave of capital which may not have been expected but which reinflated the property market while monopolising it at the same time. A slow steady climb may have been preferable but as pointed out previously the risk is more offshore and if these investors are burnt then there may be such a thing as Karma after all.

OwlsZat

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

In 2011 the Govt was desperate for investment , Michael Noonan went on a tour of America to raise funds and offered tax incentives as bait , he hooked Wilbur Ross who bailed into BOI and Ross was followed by Vulture funds initially but eventually by Hedge Funds , REITs etc in a wave of capital which may not have been expected but which reinflated the property market while monopolising it at the same time. A slow steady climb may have been preferable but as pointed out previously the risk is more offshore and if these investors are burnt then there may be such a thing as Karma after all.

Interesting stuff did not know. Begs the question why we are so slow to move the goalposts. We should change the tax regime. Are we really worried about retaliation? We created a tax haven, surely ending the practise is the right thing to do?

JamesMason

OwlsZat wrote: »

We created a tax haven, surely ending the practise is the right thing to do?

It is already being done for us. Give it two or three years and the game is up.

J_1980

OwlsZat wrote: »

Interesting stuff did not know. Begs the question why we are so slow to move the goalposts. We should change the tax regime. Are we really worried about retaliation? We created a tax haven, surely ending the practise is the right thing to do?

Ireland is still depending on foreign money inflows. There’s still not enough domestic credit creation (check Irish M2/M3, 2019 was first “ok” year).

It takes a decade to build trust, but only a week to destroy it....

Ireland is an open economy like Singapore without any resources or indigenous value add but its people want to turn it into Cuba while increasing the living standards. Just lol, makes me think that “dim-witted” is a nice description of the average Irish....

OwlsZat

JamesMason wrote: »

It is already being done for us. Give it two or three years and the game is up.

You signaling the recession alarm or are you saying changes in our tax system are in progress. Assume the former as I've heard nothing of the latter.

A relative of mine just sold a fabulous house under value. Took 3 days to go sale agreed. I'm not sure why she panic sold. Are people starting to panic at the economic indicators?

ZX7R

in the property bubble bust that started in 2007 an estimated 230000
property's in the greater Dublin commuter belt an estimated 175000 of
these were new builds,were vacant property's.
Although there was a banking crises also,this was one of the main factors in
property price fell so dramatically.
2013 saw the start in house price rise as the surplus of property's dried up.
Now we have cronavirus and a troubled economy and an oil war,
prices will drop but not as much as people will want there is to much of a shortage and within in 2 to 3 months fiscal measures will be introduced by government to boost the economy and the quickest way for Ireland to do this
is to start building and intruding measures to help buyers its the easist way to get cash flowing.

Villa05

OwlsZat wrote:

It's actually galling that we could bunch the young generation with the debt burden of the last false economic expansion then on top of that hoar them out to be overseas investment gimps.

Not forgetting they will be on the hook for the looming pensions crisis also. We can't or just won't do sustainability in this country

OwlsZat wrote:

If you believe this then you are saying the Governments plan was to create another housing bubble but not be liable. Surely, this can't be true. Let's create another false wealth cycle? What are the advantages of this over a slow steady climb?

Done to bail out banks and the well heeled at the expense of society as a whole is the short answer.

optogirl

JamesMason wrote: »

The Irish Times today has a story on how the Irish international student market is in trouble. What happens to all those new student accommodation blocks that charge obscene rent?

There'll be families of 4 living in them in a few years

JamesMason

optogirl wrote: »

There'll be families of 4 living in them in a few years

It could be as soon as this Xmas

19233974

off topic, but the FTSE dropped 8% this morning! ��

ittakestwo

19233974 wrote: »

off topic, but the FTSE dropped 8% this morning! ��

Oil has dropped 30% this morning. Biggest one day fall since gulf war in 1991.

ELM327

Good day to invest in anything that was and is profitable IMO.

J_1980

Ires REIT is down 1.75% on a day of global stock market carnage.
US tech and global property are clear out-performers.

Company profits will suffer though and Ireland’s narrow tax base evaporate. I wouldn’t bet on any major social house building program. Given Italian bonds performance today, the markets seem to be blissfully aware of any Left-Wing government follies.

lastusername

So global recession this year it looks like...which brings opportunities of course.

Assetbacked

Is it still trendy to mention the B word? Or are we now concentrated on the C word? For many months and even perhaps the past two years, Brexit was the word thrown out there by some commentators as a reason for the uncertainties in the Irish housing market. The current status of Brexit is that the end-of-year timeframe is likely unrealistic to negotiate the FTA, meaning further Brexit uncertainty beyond this year. Coronavirus paranoia now appears to be gripping investors and the markets generally, which presumably will also lead to further uncertainty with Irish housing. Towards the end of the year we will also have the US election and by then there will be new uncertainty with scaremongering talk with the markets if there is potential for Bernie to be president. There is also likely to be further progress on OECD tax alignment and the lack of big decisions being made on big tech companies under GDPR could also start to rear its head. All of this (and many other things such as trade wars) of course combining on a macro level to creating a climate of uncertainty for the global economy. To me, for the individuals, waiting for the uncertainty to resolve itself before taking a decision to buy or sell is like waiting for Godot at this point and it would be important for people to focus on their own comfort levels and whether they are willing to accept current prices on the table.

J_1980

Assetbacked wrote: »

Is it still trendy to mention the B word? Or are we now concentrated on the C word? For many months and even perhaps the past two years, Brexit was the word thrown out there by some commentators as a reason for the uncertainties in the Irish housing market. The current status of Brexit is that the end-of-year timeframe is likely unrealistic to negotiate the FTA, meaning further Brexit uncertainty beyond this year. Coronavirus paranoia now appears to be gripping investors and the markets generally, which presumably will also lead to further uncertainty with Irish housing. Towards the end of the year we will also have the US election and by then there will be new uncertainty with scaremongering talk with the markets if there is potential for Bernie to be president. There is also likely to be further progress on OECD tax alignment and the lack of big decisions being made on big tech companies under GDPR could also start to rear its head. All of this (and many other things such as trade wars) of course combining on a macro level to creating a climate of uncertainty for the global economy. To me, for the individuals, waiting for the uncertainty to resolve itself before taking a decision to buy or sell is like waiting for Godot at this point and it would be important for people to focus on their own comfort levels and whether they are willing to accept current prices on the table.

Bernie won’t win. Biden is 1/10 for nomination on PP. That’s 80% of Americans (100% of Republican party and 60% of Dems assuming each is half the population) rejecting this left wing rabble.
Americans are smart, they want prosperity and middle class wealth instead of free gibs for the spongers.

Assetbacked

J_1980 wrote: »

Bernie won’t win. Biden is 1/10 for nomination on PP. That’s 80% of Americans (100% of Republican party and 60% of Dems assuming each is half the population) rejecting this left wing rabble.
Americans are smart, they want prosperity and middle class wealth instead of free gibs for the spongers.

If the last election is anything to go by, those odds don't mean much at this stage. For all we know, one or more of the candidates could be hit with the Coronavirus and Kamala Harris could be waltzing into the White House!

JamesMason

Assetbacked wrote: »

If the last election is anything to go by, those odds don't mean much at this stage. For all we know, one or more of the candidates could be hit with the Coronavirus and Kamala Harris could be waltzing into the White House!

Stock market crash and virus outbreak together at once... It would be naive IMO to think Ireland is immune and all will be grand.
Things are about to get really rough here. We are in for big problems economically, and socially.

Taylor365

JamesMason wrote: »

Stock market crash and virus outbreak together at once... It would be naive IMO to think Ireland is immune and all will be grand.
Things are about to get really rough here. We are in for big problems economically, and socially.

Of course it would, but property is a different beast when it comes to economics.


People will hold onto it.

JamesMason

Taylor365 wrote: »

Of course it would, but property is a different beast when it comes to economics.


People will hold onto it.

Foreign investors, less so

fliball123

JamesMason wrote: »

Foreign investors, less so

why would you see at a loss when rents are through the roof. People still need to live somewhere and there is not enough property to rent to our needs

Mr Hindley

In a brief break from the (probably quite accurate) 'we're all buggered' theme, I got told today that a property I wanted to view has just gone for 75k over the asking price. So the fearmongering / impending economic calamity, depending on your school of thought, hasn't penetrated through to the property market just yet...