Property Market 2020

JamesMason

If you think that our economy could not be effected by a global pandemic
than you must be very optimistic.[/quote]
And have lots of holdings in REITs...

smurgen

held off buying and happy now. Massive corrections coming down the line.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

held off buying and happy now. Massive corrections coming down the line.

You've said this many times now, eventually you'll be right.

Come back to us when you actually buy something and we can work it out then.

smurgen

awec wrote: »

You've said this many times now, eventually you'll be right.

Come back to us when you actually buy something and we can work it out then.

Will do.

fliball123

Has anyone else noticed a lack of propreties for sale on the likes of myhome and daft.

I was just looking 2 weeks ago there were over 20000 now its downs 19100 I know not all house are on this but it seems to be decreasing week on week

q85dw7osi4lebg

fliball123 wrote: »

Has anyone else noticed a lack of propreties for sale on the likes of myhome and daft.

I was just looking 2 weeks ago there were over 20000 now its downs 19100 I know not all house are on this but it seems to be decreasing week on week

Have noticed this also, especially in the North East.

JamesMason

The GLOBAL economy is in free fall with stock markets crashing everywhere. Make no mistake, this will have a huge effect on the Irish economy. Expect job losses and a decrease in demand for housing.

The Student

fliball123 wrote: »

Has anyone else noticed a lack of propreties for sale on the likes of myhome and daft.

I was just looking 2 weeks ago there were over 20000 now its downs 19100 I know not all house are on this but it seems to be decreasing week on week

At a local level I have noticed alot of investment properties coming on the market, I wonder how many are as a result of the CGT exemption periosd starting and also landlords leaving the market.

It is easy to identify those properties that were rented from the pictures.

Maybe some of the new builds are not even reaching the market and being sold off plans to institutional investors.

The Student

JamesMason wrote: »

The GLOBAL economy is in free fall with stock markets crashing everywhere. Make no mistake, this will have a huge effect on the Irish economy. Expect job losses and a decrease in demand for housing.

Whatever about job losses people still need somewhere to live so I don't see any decrease in demand for housing.

fliball123

The Student wrote: »

At a local level I have noticed alot of investment properties coming on the market, I wonder how many are as a result of the CGT exemption periosd starting and also landlords leaving the market.

It is easy to identify those properties that were rented from the pictures.

Maybe some of the new builds are not even reaching the market and being sold off plans to institutional investors.

I just think it strange people saying prices are going to fall when at a local level the fundamental principle of supply and demand is stepped heavily on the demand side. over 100k on the housing list alone.

Woshy

fliball123 wrote: »

Has anyone else noticed a lack of propreties for sale on the likes of myhome and daft.

I was just looking 2 weeks ago there were over 20000 now its downs 19100 I know not all house are on this but it seems to be decreasing week on week

As someone buying at the moment it is very noticeable. There is very little stock in the area we are looking. We are sale agreed atm but if it falls through there are no other houses that are even vaguely suitable for us to even go view.

Summer2020

Woshy wrote: »

As someone buying at the moment it is very noticeable. There is very little stock in the area we are looking. We are sale agreed atm but if it falls through there are no other houses that are even vaguely suitable for us to even go view.

Exact same. Although I don’t think the virus is the cause of it. Absolutely nothing available in our area except places in awful condition with BER of F or G. And only maybe 1 or 2 per week coming on market

beauf

fliball123 wrote: »

I just think it strange people saying prices are going to fall when at a local level the fundamental principle of supply and demand is stepped heavily on the demand side. over 100k on the housing list alone.

The housing list isn't going to effect the supply hugely. As they aren't trying very hard to solve that problem. They are building investment properties or for people buying. Those will be effected.

The idea that one effects the other is only partially true. If someone builds a high end apartments and fills it with doctors or engineers from outside of Ireland. It has no effect on supply and demand here. Similarly if someone stops renting it might free up a room but not the property.

People keep trying to analyse the market as if it's one contiguous supply and demand. It isn't.

SozBbz

Summer2020 wrote: »

Exact same. Although I don’t think the virus is the cause of it. Absolutely nothing available in our area except places in awful condition with BER of F or G. And only maybe 1 or 2 per week coming on market

This is what happens when anything spooks the market. Sellers hold off, with the exception of executor sales etc which explains all the units in poor condition with low BER Ratings.

Those waiting for a big price drop will stay waiting.

Mic 1972

SozBbz wrote: »

This is what happens when anything spooks the market. Sellers hold off, with the exception of executor sales etc which explains all the units in poor condition with low BER Ratings.

Those waiting for a big price drop will stay waiting.

Yeah, that's what i think too.
If this is in any case the beginning of a market trend chance there will be hesitation from buyers

fliball123

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Yeah, that's what i think too.
If this is in any case the beginning of a market trend chance there will be hesitation from buyers

Thing is do the sellers can rent it out for a year or so and not make a loss the buyer will have a year of rent to pay who is losing out?

mariaalice

beauf wrote: »

The housing list isn't going to effect the supply hugely. As they aren't trying very hard to solve that problem. They are building investment properties or for people buying. Those will be effected.

The idea that one effects the other is only partially true. If someone builds a high end apartments and fills it with doctors or engineers from outside of Ireland. It has no effect on supply and demand here. Similarly if someone stops renting it might free up a room but not the property.

People keep trying to analyse the market as if it's one contiguous supply and demand. It isn't.

Well yes, if you want to buy or are on the list for a social home in Blackrock, or Kimmage or Rathfarnham for example and are not prepared to move, massive house building in Lucan or Dunyboyne is not going to be much use to you.

pearcider

SozBbz wrote: »

This is what happens when anything spooks the market. Sellers hold off, with the exception of executor sales etc which explains all the units in poor condition with low BER Ratings.

Those waiting for a big price drop will stay waiting.

This coming from someone who is pretending this new virus is like seasonal flu. For your information, US stock market peaked in mid 2007 and bottomed in mid 2009 after a 50% fall. The US stock market has already fallen 10% this week.

It took Irish property 2 more years to find the bottom in 2012. It will happen a lot quicker this time especially when people start passing away in significant numbers next winter. Spanish flu came in 3 waves peaking in the second winter. This is a lot more serious than seasonal flu and the worlds financial system is a lot more fragile than you think.

You’d be mad to buy a house this year. Mad.

Ush1

The Student wrote: »

Whatever about job losses people still need somewhere to live so I don't see any decrease in demand for housing.

They won't if huge numbers leave the country again, especially builders whom there is already a shortage.

SozBbz

pearcider wrote: »

This coming from someone who is pretending this new virus is like seasonal flu. For your information, US stock market peaked in mid 2007 and bottomed in mid 2009 after a 50% fall. The US stock market has already fallen 10% this week.

It took Irish property 2 more years to find the bottom in 2012. It will happen a lot quicker this time especially when people start passing away in significant numbers next winter. Spanish flu came in 3 waves peaking in the second winter. This is a lot more serious than seasonal flu and the worlds financial system is a lot more fragile than you think.

You’d be mad to buy a house this year. Mad.

Where did I say it was like the flu? Its a virus, like the flu, and will run its course like all viruses. Thats just a medical fact. Actually what I said was its not the black death and people need to get a grip.

Citing the Spanish Flu which occurred in in 1918-1920 before we tracked viruses and developed targeted vaccines like we have today - only convinces me that you are a crank.

You are beyond obsessed with the US stock market -heres an idea, why don't you start/join a thread where people actually want to hear about it?

You've laboured the point to death and its getting dull.

Keep sitting on the sidelines as the world passes you by.

beauf

pearcider wrote: »

....
You’d be mad to buy a house this year. Mad.

Every year a crash is predicted and people are told to wait. At some point that will be true. But not every year.

Buying a house isnt a purely financial decision. Most people won't buy at the peak or the bottom of the market. We aren't property speculators. If you are buying a house to live in for 20~30yrs there are many other considerations.

awec

beauf wrote: »

Every year a crash is predicted and people are told to wait. At some point that will be true. But not every year.

Buying a house isnt a purely financial decision. Most people won't buy at the peak or the bottom of the market. We aren't property speculators. If you are buying a house to live in for 20~30yrs there are many other considerations.

He doesn't understand that people need somewhere to live.

The Student

Ush1 wrote: »

They won't if huge numbers leave the country again, especially builders whom there is already a shortage.

Well we could afford to loose 100k people (housing list no's) and still not have enough houses.

SozBbz

beauf wrote: »

Every year a crash is predicted and people are told to wait. At some point that will be true. But not every year.

Buying a house isnt a purely financial decision. Most people won't buy at the peak or the bottom of the market. We aren't property speculators. If you are buying a house to live in for 20~30yrs there are many other considerations.

Exactly this.

I don't think there are any big time property investors on this forum. Mostly its people buying for a roof over thier heads.

One factor that I never hear mentioned by the "keep waiting, theres about to be a massive crash" brigade is peoples ages and how that effects their ability to get finance.

Once you go past 35, the term most banks will offer you will be less, year by year. This impacts how much you can borrow as the monthly repayments will be higher and therefore the affordability calculations come into play.


Also, in this age bracket, people are more and more likely to have demands which will also impact on borrowing capacity.

People need to stop thinking about buying a home as an investment. Key factors should be;
- does it suit your medium/long term needs
- can you afford the monthly repayments + contingency for unexpected bills
- can you get the finance necessary to make the purchase

JamesMason

SozBbz wrote: »

Where did I say it was like the flu? Its a virus, like the flu, and will run its course like all viruses. Thats just a medical fact. Actually what I said was its not the black death and people need to get a grip.

Citing the Spanish Flu which occurred in in 1918-1920 before we tracked viruses and developed targeted vaccines like we have today - only convinces me that you are a crank.

You are beyond obsessed with the US stock market -heres an idea, why don't you start/join a thread where people actually want to hear about it?

You've laboured the point to death and its getting dull.

Keep sitting on the sidelines as the world passes you by.

sitting on the sidelines ... cribbing and moaning... Bertie's back!

JamesMason

pearcider wrote: »

This coming from someone who is pretending this new virus is like seasonal flu. For your information, US stock market peaked in mid 2007 and bottomed in mid 2009 after a 50% fall. The US stock market has already fallen 10% this week.

It took Irish property 2 more years to find the bottom in 2012. It will happen a lot quicker this time especially when people start passing away in significant numbers next winter. Spanish flu came in 3 waves peaking in the second winter. This is a lot more serious than seasonal flu and the worlds financial system is a lot more fragile than you think.

You’d be mad to buy a house this year. Mad.

Totally agree pearcider. You'd be mad to buy this year. When the financial term liquidity crisis becomes credit crunch to the man in the street, the penny will drop.

Ush1

The Student wrote: »

Well we could afford to loose 100k people (housing list no's) and still not have enough houses.

Housing list will never be cleared. Sure housing list was huge when we had ghost estates.

awec

JamesMason wrote: »

Totally agree pearcider. You'd be mad to buy this year. When the financial term liquidity crisis becomes credit crunch to the man in the street, the penny will drop.

What do you propose that families who need somewhere to live do instead?

Buy a tent? Declare themselves homeless?

What do you think is worse? Being genuinely homeless this time next year because you decided to keep waiting and it turns out that the arse does fall out of it and there's nothing for you to buy because people can't afford to sell their homes and the developers have all gone bust, or to buy now and find out next year you have overpaid? I know which I'd choose.

In almost all cases it's better to have a home than not.

The Student

JamesMason wrote: »

Totally agree pearcider. You'd be mad to buy this year. When the financial term liquidity crisis becomes credit crunch to the man in the street, the penny will drop.

So we need more houses and liquidity dries up and you seem to think more houses will be built when access to finance is removed.

Why would a builder/developer build if there is a risk they won't sell?

Do you think a credit crunch/recession is suddenly going to increase the supply of properties?

Billythekid19

awec wrote: »

What do you propose that families who need somewhere to live do instead?

Buy a tent? Declare themselves homeless?

What do you think is worse? Being genuinely homeless this time next year because you decided to keep waiting and it turns out that the arse does fall out of it and there's nothing for you to buy because people can't afford to sell their homes and the developers have all gone bust, or to buy now and find out next year you have overpaid? I know which I'd choose.

100 % agree. I moved home last year to my parents house and saved 18,000 euro in one year by not forking out for rent. This 18k has allowed me to save enough for a deposit and so I fully intend to purchase a home this year, regardless of market conditions. It is not an investment but rather a place to live a life and potentially grow a family over the next 30 years