Property Market 2020

lcarrol3

Shelga wrote: »

I have an offer in on a house that needs work, but now I’m reconsidering waiting another 6 months. I’m already offering near the top of what I can afford, but I could see myself living there for 10+ years if necessary.

I’m living at home and not paying rent, so can afford to sit tight and just save, but I’m dying to get out.

I really don’t know what to do. What would people advise?

In the exact same boat as you! We've decided to wait until January unless something we really like comes up that we'd be happy to stay in. Realistically buying at this point the likelihood is we'd lose money, but if you're happy to sit tight for the foreseeable and you can grow into the home why not? Obviously it all depends on what you want but you're buying a home at the end of the day.

1sttimebuyer20

Shelga wrote: »

I have an offer in on a house that needs work, but now I’m reconsidering waiting another 6 months. I’m already offering near the top of what I can afford, but I could see myself living there for 10+ years if necessary.

I’m living at home and not paying rent, so can afford to sit tight and just save, but I’m dying to get out.

I really don’t know what to do. What would people advise?

The fact that you have quoted 10+ years leads me to believe you don’t for a second believe you will live here long term.

If I’m wrong on that then fine, I’m not a mind reader, but if I’m right, don’t do it. I wouldn’t advise anyone who is not buying for the long term to pull the trigger right now, I do genuinely believe there will be a dip but my guess is as good as yours on how big that dip would be. I’m guesstimating 5-10%

The above advice is coming from someone who has just put a booking deposit on a new build. I think whether people should buy right now or not is 100% on a case by case basis

Hubertj

Shane Fleming RE wrote: »

Daft report is based on asking prices. not completed sales.

Thank you for clarifying. Does the data provide analysis on data points such as difference between initial asking price and sale price? For exampl, you note a decrease in prices for May. What is driving that - discount on asking prices? Or lower asking prices? Or low volumes driving anomalies?

Shane Fleming RE

Walnut Salad wrote: »

I am hearing a lot of commercial office space will come available in Dublin as companies reduce their required floor space. For example I hear Aviva are giving up 3 floors of their building near Stephens Green. You would have to think that some of that commercial space will be converted to apartments.

Large office floor plates do not convert easily into residential. The main reason is access to windows and fire regs for route of excape. (apartment need fair more fire escape stairs) Lots of old vacant office space above retail units are round the city, most of it would be great for residential use but building and fire regs make it not feasible.

Shane Fleming RE

Hubertj wrote: »

Thank you for clarifying. Does the data provide analysis on data points such as difference between initial asking price and sale price? For exampl, you note a decrease in prices for May. What is driving that - discount on asking prices? Or lower asking prices? Or low volumes driving anomalies?

The lower volume of completions will have an impact on the average.
But I am guessing many of the completions in May were agreed pre lockdown and sellers got worried and discounts were agreed during legals. Not involved in many residential sales but had three agreed before lockdown all three ended up being discounted in legals. two by 3% and one on the investment side by 10%

The_Conductor

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

Houses also don't depreciate rapidly over time like cars do.

It depends entirely on whether houses are maintained properly or not- the international norm is to depreciate residential property units at a rate of 3.5-4% per annum (which is viewed in some countries such as Germany, as an allowable cost which may be offset against rental income for tax purposes (with an expectation that it will be used to maintain the property- but this is an unvouched cost)).

So- it doesn't depreciate rapidly- but it does depreciate.

Donald Trump

Marius34 wrote: »

Yes, M12 (Month 12) is for December.
If you filter by Type in dashboard, you'll see particular big difference for new builds, I assume most companies want to complete sale before the end of the year.
For December it's around 60% higher for New Builds, and around 20% higher for Second hand.

People also want to move into their new houses before Christmas if they can.


Christmas holidays and a few days off work to settle in plus an intention to furnish it in the January sales.

cudsy1

hi all - have followed thread since mid-march. as a result, what im seeing in the cork city and hinterland under 250k market since re opening post covid is coming as no surprise - theres some good opinion on here if you take in all extremes and come towards the middle IMO - can be hard at times wading through non property market speculation, but a small price to pay

so, cork peeps - any reasonable/attractive city property (not many around) seems to be easily making asking price, and a bidding war usually on top of that, no change, if anything it seems a bit hotter than pre-covid, pent up demand exceeding pent up supply it seems. loads and loads of rubbish stock, as flagged as a possibility on this thread.

hinterland/mid west/south west cork - steadier, lots of viewings on nice properties, but also a few less turn keyish places have no current offers or ones well below asking. also signs of meaty enough price reductions 5-10% since covid

cant comment on north county, east county, far west or harbour areas.

most of the properties ive enquired about seem to be on the market due to original buyers running into covid problems, or just backing out due to uncertainty. im one of the latter actually.

I suppose pent up supply might come onto market now as well, its only been 3 weeks since re opening of the country.
hard to say overall though. once pent up bidders are sated, will there be any pent up supply left? other than rubbish... will there be a steadyish new supply of reasonable stock? Only time will tell I suppose, I'd be interested on peoples opinions on this

Claw Hammer

The_Conductor wrote: »

It depends entirely on whether houses are maintained properly or not- the international norm is to depreciate residential property units at a rate of 3.5-4% per annum (which is viewed in some countries such as Germany, as an allowable cost which may be offset against rental income for tax purposes (with an expectation that it will be used to maintain the property- but this is an unvouched cost)).

So- it doesn't depreciate rapidly- but it does depreciate.

That is an accounting deprecation which has nothing to do with market value and capital depreciation/appreciation. The long term studies (100 year period) show that property maintains its value in line with inflation.

cnocbui

Australians and New Zealanders don't have a concept of house price depreciation. If you tried to explain the idea to them you would likely trigger a severe bout of cognitive dissonance.

cnocbui

Donald Trump wrote: »

People also want to move into their new houses before Christmas if they can.


Christmas holidays and a few days off work to settle in plus an intention to furnish it in the January sales.

Children and schooling don't fit well with December, which is why i found it so odd, unless Ireland is turning into Sweden.

landofthetree

cnocbui wrote: »

Australians and New Zealanders don't have a concept of house price depreciation. If you tried to explain the idea to them you would likely trigger a severe bout of cognitive dissonance.

They would if they remember the 70s.
https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2016/07/11/remember-the-last-time-house-prices-crashed-40/

In the early 1970s, New Zealand experienced a rapid increase in house prices caused by, among other things, a swift run-up in immigration and a shortage of builders and building materials. Between 1971 and 1974 real house prices increased by 60%. This caused alarm, and the government responded by loosening planning controls to allow more flats to be built in cities. Then the 1973 oil shock hit, net migration turned negative, and the economy entered into a prolonged slide. (Thanks Muldoon!)

From 1974 to 1980, house prices fell by around 40% in real terms. By the end of the decade houses were no more valuable than they had been at the start.

guyfawkes5

The_Conductor wrote: »

It depends entirely on whether houses are maintained properly or not- the international norm is to depreciate residential property units at a rate of 3.5-4% per annum (which is viewed in some countries such as Germany, as an allowable cost which may be offset against rental income for tax purposes (with an expectation that it will be used to maintain the property- but this is an unvouched cost)).

So- it doesn't depreciate rapidly- but it does depreciate.

As mentioned already, if houses are reasonably maintained by owners then they tend to keep their value in line with inflation.

Your figures are very surprising to me as they would insinuate a €300,000 property would lose €10,000 in value every year? As mentioned, is this just an accounting practice and not to do with the resale value of a property (which is what's being discussed)?

The original point was that the poster comparing house sales to car sales was making a very poor analogy. That point still stands.

errlloyd

I really think the conversation above needs to delineate house value with property value.

Property does not depreciate or appreciate from an accounting point of view. But buildings obviously do. Their fixtures and fittings wear out. Structures rot and crumble etc.

It is probably hard to find evidence of this looking at residential property because the depreciation in the building is often hidden by increasing value of the land underneath, but it is much easier to find evidence in commercial property.

GreeBo

tracesnim61 wrote: »

The house was purchased in the 90's and was paid off 5 years ago, all of our children have left the house.

Our original plan was to sell the house, buy a 2 bed in Dublin and property in Portugal and spend the time between the two locations. My husband thinks we should put it up for 600k and take 580k then purchase the 2 bed for less than 250k. He has spotted a couple of 2 beds that have been on the market for greater than 6 months for 250k and is convinced he will get them cheaper but will pay 250k if needed. His main reasoning for selling now is he doesn't think we will get as much for our house within two years time.

We have family we can stay with for a couple of weeks/months while we are in the process of moving.

As long as the 2 bed you are buying is somewhere you are happy to live long term then go for it, ignore the covid/profit aspect.
If you are just buying something temporary to try to take advantage of timing the market then I'd reconsider.

fret_wimp2

errlloyd wrote: »

I really think the conversation above needs to delineate house value with property value.

Property does not depreciate or appreciate from an accounting point of view. But buildings obviously do. Their fixtures and fittings wear out. Structures rot and crumble etc.

It is probably hard to find evidence of this looking at residential property because the depreciation in the building is often hidden by increasing value of the land underneath, but it is much easier to find evidence in commercial property.

For the most part people also maintain their homes, replace rooves, fix leaks, upgrade insulation, wiring, plumbing etc.
Its why the expected lifespan of most houses is 60 years but it's still easy to buy a house much older than that that's reasonably modernized.

guyfawkes5

cudsy1 wrote: »

hi all - have followed thread since mid-march. as a result, what im seeing in the cork city and hinterland under 250k market since re opening post covid is coming as no surprise - theres some good opinion on here if you take in all extremes and come towards the middle IMO - can be hard at times wading through non property market speculation, but a small price to pay

so, cork peeps - any reasonable/attractive city property (not many around) seems to be easily making asking price, and a bidding war usually on top of that, no change, if anything it seems a bit hotter than pre-covid, pent up demand exceeding pent up supply it seems. loads and loads of rubbish stock, as flagged as a possibility on this thread.

hinterland/mid west/south west cork - steadier, lots of viewings on nice properties, but also a few less turn keyish places have no current offers or ones well below asking. also signs of meaty enough price reductions 5-10% since covid

cant comment on north county, east county, far west or harbour areas.

most of the properties ive enquired about seem to be on the market due to original buyers running into covid problems, or just backing out due to uncertainty. im one of the latter actually.

I suppose pent up supply might come onto market now as well, its only been 3 weeks since re opening of the country.
hard to say overall though. once pent up bidders are sated, will there be any pent up supply left? other than rubbish... will there be a steadyish new supply of reasonable stock? Only time will tell I suppose, I'd be interested on peoples opinions on this

Broadly noticing the same thing as you in Dublin, although my perspective is limited now as while I'm keeping an eye on adverts, I'm not actively going to viewings anymore as I'm close to a closing date in a purchase.

It seems like a lot of turn-key properties that had their sale fall through during lockdown have been locked back in quickly, presumably by previous underbidders.

Properties that are more seen as fixer-uppers or more of a risk in terms of area seem to have had their sale agreeds fall through and not come back up. I'm thinking in particular of two properties I saw in East Wall here - with Covid-19 seeming to change the way we work and make office space less valuable, the development in the Point / IFSC nearby doesn't seem so sure to rapidly gentrify the area anymore.

Stock seems to be coming online more regularly than before, but it seems to be reduced even from the low levels of Q1 2020.

freeze4real

A property in D5 was sold under a week and 10k over asking. Another that I was looking at has gone 20k over guide price.



Market is still as competitive.


All properties had prices arround the region of 250k - 320K.

Empty_Space

I'm starting to see first signs of a crash.
People are realizing the real state of world economy.

I expect the more things get back to normal, the more Irish prices will reflect reality and begin to crash.

Another wave will delay and worsen impact.

Bass Reeves

Empty_Space wrote: »

I'm starting to see first signs of a crash.
People are realizing the real state of world economy.

I expect the more things get back to normal, the more Irish prices will reflect reality and begin to crash.

Another wave will delay and worsen impact.

Rubbish

cnocbui

Empty_Space wrote: »

I'm starting to see first signs of a crash.
People are realizing the real state of world economy.

I expect the more things get back to normal, the more Irish prices will reflect reality and begin to crash.

Another wave will delay and worsen impact.

How much work are you seeing on new home building sites?

I was just reading about alarm bells in Vic, Australia, due to a fall in home approvals, the worry being that it will negatively impact the availability of affordable housing. In other words, reduced supply leads to price rises.

Bass Reeves

cnocbui wrote: »

How much work are you seeing on new home building sites?

I was just reading about alarm bells in Vic, Australia, due to a fall in home approvals, the worry being that it will negatively impact the availability of affordable housing. In other words, reduced supply leads to price rises.

Mod Note
Do not attack posters. Attack the content of the post.

Villa05

Deleted post quote removed.

Mod.

wassie

cnocbui wrote: »

Australians and New Zealanders don't have a concept of house price depreciation. If you tried to explain the idea to them you would likely trigger a severe bout of cognitive dissonance.

Nonsense. Perth market peaked in 2014 and has declined or stagnated year on year.

Bass Reeves

Villa05 wrote: »

Helpful post!

Ya glad you agree with my sentiments you forgot to thank it

Villa05

A number of factors to consider
WFH will require more rooms in a house and may increase demand and price for large house although this may be less pronounced in Dublin as you are close to work

Further credit tightening by banks may lead to an increased deposit required for an apartment, this may lead to a fall in apartment prices as pool of buyers reduces

Commercial property owners expected to suffer in the Post covid World, many are large institutions with multiple residential and commercial units. They may start offloading some of there residential units to raise cash. Increased supply may reduce price

My uncle did something similar as result of the bedroom tax in the UK. He says it was the 2nd best thing he has done in his life. Improved quality of life substantially

Important

If you are buying and selling at the same time, avoid using the same estate agent for both

Computer Science Student

Does anyone have experience with using bidx1 for public auctions?

kippy

Villa05 wrote: »

A number of factors to consider
WFH will require more rooms in a house and may increase demand and price for large house although this may be less pronounced in Dublin as you are close to work

Further credit tightening by banks may lead to an increased deposit required for an apartment, this may lead to a fall in apartment prices as pool of buyers reduces

Commercial property owners expected to suffer in the Post covid World, many are large institutions with multiple residential and commercial units. They may start offloading some of there residential units to raise cash. Increased supply may reduce price

My uncle did something similar as result of the bedroom tax in the UK. He says it was the 2nd best thing he has done in his life. Improved quality of life substantially

Important

If you are buying and selling at the same time, avoid using the same estate agent for both

I wouldn't necessarily agree with your last piece of advice. It would strongly depend on the variables but using the same estate agent could work in your favour, especially in a competitive market.

Bass Reeves

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Does anyone have experience with using bidx1 for public auctions?

Are you looking at the mechanism of selling or buying

Hubertj

Empty_Space wrote: »

I'm starting to see first signs of a crash.
People are realizing the real state of world economy.

I expect the more things get back to normal, the more Irish prices will reflect reality and begin to crash.

Another wave will delay and worsen impact.

What signs are you seeing?