Property Market 2020

JimmyVik

stinger31 wrote: »

This is exactly the situation that myself and the OH are in. We're selling and cashing in now. otherwise we'll be kicking ourselves. We've spoken to EA ,parents and in fact all our close friends (some are doing the same). The opinion is the same with every single person agreeing that huge reductions are on the way. So we're going with it and if we get near our asking we'll be happy.

I personally see the sh1t hitting the fan in the next few month and want out now.

Are you planning on buying again when prices start to rise? After the drop of course.


Where are you going to be living while you wait? What will the rent cost you?

JimmyVik

Assetbacked wrote: »

I think rents should be a fraction of salaries (as workers are predominantly the renters). Based on what seems to be the current average salary, it should be possible to rent (approximately) a studio apartment in Dublin for €500/600; a habitable 1 bedroom apartment for €1000 (obviously not in the city centre); 2 bedroom apartment for €1300 (again not in the city centre).

When people are paying 30%+ of their after tax salaries just to cover their rent, the economy suffers in a big way as it is essentially dead money as it is a big chunk which is funnelled up to a small portion of society (or even to investors who are not even based in Ireland), when it would be better to be spread out throughout the more active economy (i.e. pubs, shops, car dealerships, hotels, supermarkets etc.). It's also better for the general wellbeing of people to be able to rent their own place, it teaches them to be responsible, it's easier to meet partners ("Come back to my place" instead of, "I can't bring you back to mine as my roommate is home") and is an incentive to work hard. What is toxic is to not even have the option of moving away from the city centre in order to rent a cheaper place and what is utterly soul-destroying is having to share a bedroom with another adult.

Politically, it is obvious this is the single biggest issue among the younger generations (i.e. those under 40) and therefore it is important to realise that the market will be poked and probed even more from the political establishment in an attempt to establish more affordable rents so it isn't just economic arguments we need to consider in the context of the rental market discussions!

You have to separate that into area though.
If you want to base it on average salary, then it should be the average salary of the pool of people who would be looking to rent that property in that area.
You cant use a national average salary to base rental prices in Dublin city center from.

Ush1

Assetbacked wrote: »

In less than an hour you can get from most of Dublin into the city centre during rush hour, again, unlike London where under an hour is considered good going even with their excellent transport system. So I'm not sure if rapid transport is necessary as much as frequent transport (more darts, buses and Luas) and fully segregated, high quality cycling/escooter lanes instead of the ridiculous situation of allowing cars drive the whole way in past the canals during rush hour!

High density in the city centre will bring more of the workers out of the suburbs which will alleviate capacity issues on public transport in any event, which means there won't be a mass exodus to the medium density apartment buildings out in the suburbs resulting in overwhelming demand on public transport.

Not a hope. I used to drive from Tallaght to Adelaide road and was often an hour and a half, sometimes more.

Bus would be just as slow. Luas is at least an hour.

JimmyVik

Assetbacked wrote: »

But Dublin is not like Paris or New York as we have sprawling suburbs and relatively low density. There is plenty of space in the capital to build 3-5 storey blocks of apartments throughout the suburbs and space to build even close to the city centre hence the massive amounts of planning permissions which have gone through the planning system in the past couple of years and right up until the covid crisis.

100% guarantee you that those will not be built now, even if they ever had any chance of being built. If they are to be built it will be a trickle. And sold to council and reits before they even start.

fret_wimp2

SozBbz wrote: »

I agree, I think turkey property sub 500k is going to get really problematic. New builds will trickle off (unless the state steps in, which they might to make it worth builders whille despite the other risks in the market) so buyers will be left with the 3 D's (Divorceing, Desperate and Dead - and the third category especially are not known for leaving behind turn key property.)

Whats considered turnkey?
New builds mostly have no floors, paint/wallpaper, carpet, furniture so one cant just walk in and start living.

A new build thats been lived in for 3-4 years is no longer new, but is technically turnkey, but most will want to repaint, re-carpet and still need furniture.

Im interested as i often see "turnkey" mentioned on daft, but not one doesnt have some feature i wouldnt change.

wassie

fliball123 wrote: »

Good analogy the fact is no one knows what way this will shake out. No 2 recessions are the same and the thing that throws the cat amongst the pigeons is the no repossessions in this country if this changed then I would say definite price drops but while everyone is losing jobs and taking cuts they will be allowed stay in their house for as long as they want and why would you sell at a loss when you can sit on your hole not paying your mortgage.

I beg to differ. Sure the causations may be different, but my experience of 3 recessions tells me the same thing happens.

People lose jobs and livelihoods are destroyed on a widespread scale.

Markitron

Assetbacked wrote: »

In less than an hour you can get from most of Dublin into the city centre during rush hour

You are going to have to define what you consider 'most of Dublin' and 'rush hour'.

ebayissues

How long would it take for house prices to fall? The peak to trough during the last recession was 4 years.... how much rent would one waste away by waiting?




My stance hasn't changed... I still see 5% - 15% drop.

q85dw7osi4lebg

A lot of doom in here, I reckon 5% drop max. People need places to live. If you turn your phone off for a bit and go take a walk in your nearest city, things looking very much back to normal.

Assetbacked

Markitron wrote: »

You are going to have to define what you consider 'most of Dublin' and 'rush hour'.

Generally, inside the M50 which is most of Dublin and not talking about driving as it is ridiculous to have people driving from within the m50 to the city centre (I'm not talking about akward locations not quite in the city centre). Those that can cycle and living within the m50 really don't have far to go to get into the city centre as you're only looking at a 7km cycle (around 30 mins).

I've gone from Malahide on a bus into the city centre for a few weeks and it took pretty much an hour to get to the convention centre, the dart takes 25 minutes to Connolly (commuter train 17 minutes). I've lived out in Dun Laoire for a bit and again, the bus took around 40 minutes with the dart obviously faster to get into the city centre. Less experience of west to east but the Luas from Tallaght into the city centre would definitely take less than an hour.

Iceman29

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

A lot of doom in here, I reckon 5% drop max. People need places to live. If you turn your phone off for a bit and go take a walk in your nearest city, things looking very much back to normal.

I dont know what your nearest city is but Dublin is still a ghost town......:eek:

awec

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

A lot of doom in here, I reckon 5% drop max. People need places to live. If you turn your phone off for a bit and go take a walk in your nearest city, things looking very much back to normal.

I think 5% is overly optimistic.

Mike3287

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

A lot of doom in here, I reckon 5% drop max. People need places to live. If you turn your phone off for a bit and go take a walk in your nearest city, things looking very much back to normal.

Far from it

Whole economy has been propped up till now

500,000 or more are on some kind of Covid payment directly or through employers, the party's over when that payment is stopped, government can't afford to pay and employer's will have to let alot of staff go as new normal is totally different than old normal

No tourist's, no economy

It's gonna get worse before it gets better.

The real question is, who are we selling these houses to right now?

The same people we've been selling it to for the last few years?

cnocbui

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Whats considered turnkey?
New builds mostly have no floors, paint/wallpaper, carpet, furniture so one cant just walk in and start living.

A new build thats been lived in for 3-4 years is no longer new, but is technically turnkey, but most will want to repaint, re-carpet and still need furniture.

Im interested as i often see "turnkey" mentioned on daft, but not one doesnt have some feature i wouldnt change.

I think you have the wrong definition of turnkey. I take it to mean that all the functional aspects of the house work and that the decoration standard is acceptable functionally, if not aesthetically.

In other words, everything works and you can move in and live immediately, even if you have to grit your teeth in disagreement with aesthetics. You can repaint while living in a house. Internal paint lasts decades, not 3-4 years. Carpeting would be the main thing you might want to update before moving in, but it's a want, not a need.

Actually that's a better and shorter definition of turnkey: It's got what you need to be lived in, not necessarily what you want.

JimmyVik

Assetbacked wrote: »

Generally, inside the M50 which is most of Dublin and not talking about driving as it is ridiculous to have people driving from within the m50 to the city centre (I'm not talking about akward locations not quite in the city centre). Those that can cycle and living within the m50 really don't have far to go to get into the city centre as you're only looking at a 7km cycle (around 30 mins).

I've gone from Malahide on a bus into the city centre for a few weeks and it took pretty much an hour to get to the convention centre, the dart takes 25 minutes to Connolly (commuter train 17 minutes). I've lived out in Dun Laoire for a bit and again, the bus took around 40 minutes with the dart obviously faster to get into the city centre. Less experience of west to east but the Luas from Tallaght into the city centre would definitely take less than an hour.

Draw a circle out to Bray, Balbriggan, Naas.
I would say thats about 1 hour commute to city center.

cnocbui

awec wrote: »

I think 5% is overly optimistic.

There is a beautiful example illustrating what's actually happening, over on the buying selling thread.

Sale agreed but the valuer said a 10% lower price was needed due to Covid. Solved by getting a different valuer.

Ush1

Assetbacked wrote: »

Generally, inside the M50 which is most of Dublin and not talking about driving as it is ridiculous to have people driving from within the m50 to the city centre (I'm not talking about akward locations not quite in the city centre). Those that can cycle and living within the m50 really don't have far to go to get into the city centre as you're only looking at a 7km cycle (around 30 mins).

I've gone from Malahide on a bus into the city centre for a few weeks and it took pretty much an hour to get to the convention centre, the dart takes 25 minutes to Connolly (commuter train 17 minutes). I've lived out in Dun Laoire for a bit and again, the bus took around 40 minutes with the dart obviously faster to get into the city centre. Less experience of west to east but the Luas from Tallaght into the city centre would definitely take less than an hour.

Goal posts are shifting all about. I can guarantee you, by bus from many parts of Tallaght to Dublin 2 will be at least 1 hour and a half when the schools are open during rush hour. Terenure village, Rathmines, Rathgar etc... are big bottlenecks.

The luas from Tallaght to Spencer dock is about 1 hour and 10 minutes, can be longer sometimes.

Tallaght is the most populous town/suburb in the country, not sure how it wouldn't count.

Iceman29

Ush1 wrote: »

Goal posts are shifting all about. I can guarantee you, by bus from many parts of Tallaght to Dublin 2 will be at least 1 hour and a half when the schools are open during rush hour. Terenure village, Rathmines, Rathgar etc... are big bottlenecks.

The luas from Tallaght to Spencer dock is about 1 hour and 10 minutes, can be longer sometimes.

Tallaght is the most populous town/suburb in the country, not sure how it wouldn't count.

Tallaght is bigger than limerick city:eek:

Let that sink in

Bass Reeves

Iceman29 wrote: »

Maybe more like the plane was crashing and there was limited parachutes on a plane.....

But what if the plane is out over the Atlantic Ocean, I take my chance on the pilot managing the situation.

Really interesting incident from the early noughties. A couple both with good jobs sold there property on the outskirts of yhe village I live near. There was about 10 acres sold opposite them and planning going in for 50 houses. They presumed that there property would collapse in price with all the houses opposite. They rented and dithered looking for the ideal site. Next thing house and site prices climbed where it was impossible for them to buy a site and build.

They spend 10 years renting before they managed to procure a site. At the end of it all if they stayed put they gave been way better off as there old house is worth as much if not more than there present property

Presumption is the mother-in-law of all f@@kups

Assetbacked

Ush1 wrote: »

Goal posts are shifting all about. I can guarantee you, by bus from many parts of Tallaght to Dublin 2 will be at least 1 hour and a half when the schools are open during rush hour. Terenure village, Rathmines, Rathgar etc... are big bottlenecks.

The luas from Tallaght to Spencer dock is about 1 hour and 10 minutes, can be longer sometimes.

Tallaght is the most populous town/suburb in the country, not sure how it wouldn't count.

Straw-clutching here and even at that your hyperbole still only gives 1hr 10mins, so the general point that most of Dublin can get to the city centre in under an hour still stands (I'm not talking about door to door commutes, just making the point how quickly the city centre of Dublin can be accessed for those that live in Dublin). Terenure, Rathgar and Rathmines, all outside the canal so suburbs and all comfortably under an hour into the city centre (even walking). I think you're struggling to make a point that is a tangent in any event.

Ush1

Assetbacked wrote: »

Straw-clutching here and even at that your hyperbole still only gives 1hr 10mins, so the general point that most of Dublin can get to the city centre in under an hour still stands. Terenure, Rathgar and Rathmines, all outside the canal so suburbs and all comfortably under an hour into the city centre (even walking). I think you're struggling to make a point that is a tangent in any event.

There is no hyperbole, I did these commutes.

Saying during rush hour you can get from anywhere in Dublin on public transport to the city centre in under an hour is simply not true.

I didn't mention Rathmines etc...to talk about how quick they can get in, I'm pointing out that sitting on bus from Tallaght you will be at a standstill multiple points along the way for periods of time.

fret_wimp2

cnocbui wrote: »

I think you have the wrong definition of turnkey. I take it to mean that all the functional aspects of the house work and that the decoration standard is acceptable functionally, if not aesthetically.

In other words, everything works and you can move in and live immediately, even if you have to grit your teeth in disagreement with aesthetics. You can repaint while living in a house. Internal paint lasts decades, not 3-4 years. Carpeting would be the main thing you might want to update before moving in, but it's a want, not a need.

Actually that's a better and shorter definition of turnkey: It's got what you need to be lived in, not necessarily what you want.

Makes sense, so a new build is not turnkey.
So which is more desirable, a completely new, new build, or one that was a new build a few years ago, has been lived in for 4-5 years and is technically now "turnkey"?
Or would this be considered no different to any other 2nd hand property be it 5 years old or 50 if they are both "turnkey"?

awec

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Makes sense, so a new build is not turnkey.
So which is more desirable, a completely new, new build, or one that was a new build a few years ago, has been lived in for 4-5 years and is technically now "turnkey"?
Or would this be considered no different to any other 2nd hand property be it 5 years old or 50 if they are both "turnkey"?

Technically a new build should have more modern fixtures / fittings / heating / windows etc etc.

Walnut Salad

awec wrote: »

I think 5% is overly optimistic.

Do you mean for 2020 or 2021 or longer term?

wassie

There is no 'industry standard' for turnkey. Typically though, a 'builders turnkey' is exactly this - no paint, carpet, no appliances. A lot of buyers want to be able to choose their final finishes rather than what someone else has chosen. Generally left in this state for a speculative development.

awec

Walnut Salad wrote: »

Do you mean for 2020 or 2021 or longer term?

Longer term I think prices will hit a floor that's lower than 95% of today's prices.

cnocbui

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Makes sense, so a new build is not turnkey.
So which is more desirable, a completely new, new build, or one that was a new build a few years ago, has been lived in for 4-5 years and is technically now "turnkey"?
Or would this be considered no different to any other 2nd hand property be it 5 years old or 50 if they are both "turnkey"?

I'd say the 2nd hand house that has had someone sorting the problems the last several years and which is livable now. But for some reason the market seems to prize new build above almost anything else.

The most desirable quality in other countries is location. Pretty much by definition, old properties have the best locations because the builders had the better choices as to where they built. Leaving aside oppressive planning, it's said you can change almost anything except location.

I suspect a lot of people are limited in what they can buy by a near total lack of any DIY ability so changing things requires paying tradesmen, which might alter their interpretation of 'turnkey'.

PommieBast

ebayissues wrote: »

How long would it take for house prices to fall? The peak to trough during the last recession was 4 years.... how much rent would one waste away by waiting?

In my area the absolute cheapest thing for rent is €1500pm which works out at €72k over 4 years. Including all fees the place I am SA on will be a touch under €300k. 25% drop and I am still quids-in.

Assetbacked

Ush1 wrote: »

There is no hyperbole, I did these commutes.

Saying during rush hour you can get from anywhere in Dublin on public transport to the city centre in under an hour is simply not true.

I didn't mention Rathmines etc...to talk about how quick they can get in, I'm pointing out that sitting on bus from Tallaght you will be at a standstill multiple points along the way for periods of time.

I didn't say anywhere in Dublin! I said most of Dublin, as you can see from my posts. There, now do you accept you are going off on a wild tangent?

Assetbacked

cnocbui wrote: »

I'd say the 2nd hand house that has had someone sorting the problems the last several years and which is livable now. But for some reason the market seems to prize new build above almost anything else.

The most desirable quality in other countries is location. Pretty much by definition, old properties have the best locations because the builders had the better choices as to where they built. Leaving aside oppressive planning, it's said you can change almost anything except location.

I suspect a lot of people are limited in what they can buy by a near total lack of any DIY ability so changing things requires paying tradesmen, which might alter their interpretation of 'turnkey'.

It's funny to note that there is a generation with no DIY abilities but at the same time it is perfectly understandable and, to be honest, expected considering the heavy restrictions on what changes can be made to a rental property. Even changing the curtains or couches in a rental needs landlord sign off! I'm not commenting on whether it should be possible to paint and refloor your rental, just observing that lacking DIY skills is perfectly normal in the modern day.